When Benny Safdie won Best Director in Venice, all of the pundits and critics either shrugged or shook their heads. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson wasn’t gonna be on their wish lists for Best Actor. That was obvious. I took their word for it because I hadn’t seen the movie. I did what pundits do – I followed the chatter and buzz online. That turned out to be a mistake because Johnson easily gave one of the best performances of the year.
The Smashing Machine is a surprisingly good movie, though it’s not one the Film Twitter hive mind would get excited about. No social justice driving theme, for instance, which seems to drive their enthusiasm. There is no deliberate casting to tick off the boxes. It is just a story about Mark Kerr, an MMA pioneer who was the subject of an HBO documentary in 2002.
Johnson plays Kerr as someone who is fighting in the ring but also fighting outside the ring, to stay alive, to stay sober, to keep his sanity amid a turbulent relationship with his girlfriend Dawn (an excellent Emily Blunt). I was moved by his performance. I believe him in the role, even though it’s dramatically different from his other work. Safdie’s direction is done in the same style as The Curse — realistic, hand-held, intimate. I hope voters don’t forget his work.
And then there is Ethan Hawke in the showcase performance of Blue Moon where he plays a man struggling with addiction, too, but unlike Kerr, he doesn’t come out of it sucessfully because his is a life of internal pain. He is the polar opposite of Mark Kerr but these performances aren’t that separate from each other. Both performances take hold of your heart by the end and you feel so much for them, for their suffering, for everything they couldn’t have that they wanted and how they kept it hidden.
Hawke plays Lorenz Hart who was Jewish, though obvioiusly Hawke is not. Rumored to be in the closet but that isn’t so much in the film and obviously, Hawke is not gay. He spends much of the movie delivering a monologue that borders on the irritating, especially in the beginning. He obsessed on Margaret Qualley who is not interested (she’s great, btw). It wasn’t until the end that Hawke’s performance had me in its grips and I was deeply moved. I think he absolutely deserves a nomination.
Blue Moon is a showcase performance because it’s not really a movie so much as a one-act play. But it is one of the more enjoyable movies in the screener pile. I sort of wanted to crawl into that world and hang out with him and ruminate on humanity and its struggles. But there isn’t much of a plot and it’s not likely to land a Best Picture nomination.
As for whether or not either of these men can win, I don’t know. At the moment, they’re not really being pushed into the five, certainly not as much as, say, Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent which will be ushered along by pundits and bloggers. In the old days I would have said no way, but honestly, there’s not much of the Oscar race left that isn’t shaped by bloggers and critics.
And finally, Joaquin Phoenix in Eddington delivers another brilliant performance no one is talking about because people don’t really know what to do with the movie. They can’t process it because it is who they are. All the same, Phoenix does some of his best work and it’s unlike anything he’s ever done. I wish Eddinging was a frontrunner.
Best Actor tends to go with Best Picture, though not always, as with Brendan Fraser in The Whale and Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. But usually, it lands. When I look at Best Actor I almost always think: Best Picture.
The Great Feminization
Everywhere but inside the bubble of the Left, the chatter has been about Helen Andrews and The Great Feminiaztion. That means in the past 20 years, there has been a shift after so many women have been elevated to positions of power. With more women than men running things, society became more punitive, more puritanical, more inclined toward “cancel culture” purges and the “woke” religion we saw consume our culture after the Summer of 2020.
She explains it here:
There is no doubt that this has had a massive impact on Hollywood, which might explain the Girl Boss trope that wrecked superhero movies, or the “intimacy coordinators” mess and the Me Too movement infantilizing women when it comes to sex. Either which way, it has had an effect on the Oscar. Just look at how things have gone in the past ten years:
Best Picture/Best Actress
2024–Anora, Mikey Madison
2022–Everything Everywhere, Michelle Yeoh
2020–Nomadland, Frances McDormand
Best Picture/Best Actor
2023–Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
In 2010 and 2011 there were back to back Best Actor winners with Best Picture but not again until 2023.
Additionally, the Best Actor winners were heroic but also slightly diminished. Like Colin Firth in The King’s Speech, Eddie Redmayne in Theory of Everything. The showcase roles for actresses have reached a pinnacle this year. The Great Sorting of Hollywood has meant much better and more diverse roles for women and they tend to be strong women.
But men, such is not the case. If pundits are already circling performances by actors in International Features, that might be a good indication that the roles for men aren’t exactly catching fire. They, too, must be policed in some ways to be well behaved or at least not harmful to women or they will be harshly judged. That might explain why Leonardo DiCaprio fits the time so well. He’s completely de-centered from the narrative even if he is the film’s star.
The Frontrunners – How I see it, not how the pundits do.
- Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme. Probably he should have won last year for A Complete Unknown, considering he worked on it for five years and mastered the part. Adrien Brody won because The Brutalist was more prominent in the race and it was a more gut-wrenching (diminished) performance. Chalamet’s strength as an actor and the characters he plays works against him. But his narrative from last year and his popularity, plus the changing Academy demographics might boost him to a win.
- Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another. To me, he’s the best thing about the movie and is very funny. On the other hand, his $20 million salary boosted the film to its bloated price tag and that might be a problem (might not). His win would be in keeping the pattern of the past few years where leading actors or actresses win along with Best Picture. If they love the movie as much as the critics do then maybe it just wins everything.
- Michael B. Jordan, Sinners. No diminished male is he. In fact, he is among the strongest male protagonists in the Oscar race and he plays twins. There is still some debate about whether or not Sinners will hit with international voters (how absolutely annoying if not) and if it does, Jordan should find a slot in the top five.
- Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine. He easily stands out in a sea of contenders, even if the pundits don’t think so. A popular actor stretching and exploring his range is usually worthy of at least a nomination.
- Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon. It is an extremely physical performance and much of it is does only with his eyes. He brings sympathy and compassion to the character and, I think, knocks it out of the park. The beauty of the ending, by the way, is that you don’t really know who he is longing for and what defines his pain. It could go either way. But one thing was for sure, his was a life of suffering because he could never have what he wanted. Great acting by Ethan Hawke.
The two that the awards pundits have here would be:
- Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent. I feel like this is 100% a creation of the hive mind but he did win in Cannes and if the movie is liked enough he could find his way in.
- Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. This remains tricky since the public was so disinterested in the movie and it wasn’t exactly a showy role. It was a diminished Boss grappling with depression.
- George Clooney, Jay Kelly – this will depend on how much people like the movie overall and how willing they will be to nominate him where he is essentially playing himself compared to, say, Johnson and Hawke who completely transform themselves for their roles.
- Jesse Plemons, Bugonia. Yet another transformation by Plemons whose work his fellow actors have come to appreciate. If Bugonia is well loved then Plemons might be in the top five.
- Joe Edgerton, Train Dreams – this movie is picking up lots of last minute buzz and if it continues it will move into all of the major categories.
Just because the pundits have decided the race, doesn’t mean that’s the race. There is still time for voters to watch these films and decide for themselves which performances they think are really the best. That is, after all, their job.
Here are my predictions for this week:
Best Picture
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Sentimental Value
Frankenstein
Wicked for Good
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Marty Supreme
Bugonia
It was Just an Accident
Best Director
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked for Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Chase Infiniti, One Battle
On the bubble: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Best Actor
Timothée Chalament, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande, Wicked for Good
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Supporting Actor
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Original Screenplay
It Was Just An Accident
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Weapons
Bugonia
Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
The Life of Chuck
Frankenstein
Wicked for Good
Casting
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked For Good
Hamnet
Springsteen Deliver Me From Nowhere
International Feature
Sentimental Value
The Secret Agent
No Other Choice
Nouvelle Vague
Sirat
Editing
One Battle After Another
Sinners
F1
Marty Supreme
Weapons
Cinematography
One Battle After Another
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Sinners
Hamnet
Production Design
Frankenstein
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Costume
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Score
Sinners
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
F1
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
The Smashing Machine
Christy
Wicked: For Good
Sinners
Sound
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Wicked: For Good
One Battle After Another
I will be seeing more movies in the coming days. Frankenstein is now on Netflix and everyone can see it.
