Best Picture appears to be down to these titles (it could change depending on which films open to rave reviews – there are still question marks and the race could change course at any time):
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Frost/Nixon
Doubt
Rachel Getting Married
Gran Torino
The Wrestler
And those could very well be the National Board of Review’s first picks. Which film will they choose as their number one? It will be the most, or very nearly, critically acclaimed of the bunch – but since these films won’t have been released when they release their list it’s a big question mark. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it was either The Reader or Revolutionary Road. More on the NBR later.
Which films could get the SAG ensemble vote?
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Benjamin Button
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Also possible: The Wrestler and The Reader
The DGA nods could go to:
Danny Boyle
Christopher Nolan
Gus Van Sant
Sam Mendes
David Fincher
Jonathan Demme, Stephen Daldry and Ron Howard also in the running.
PGA could go to:
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
The Reader
The only lock right now appears to be Slumdog Millionaire, a film which is beloved across the board and has a ferocious campaign already in full swing. The other four slots are open. Usually, not always, the films that hits all of these stops along the way also makes it to Best Picture but I don’t see Slumdog getting a SAG ensemble nod. I can see Doubt and Frost/Nixon hitting all of the stops. Revolutionary Road could easily hit them. And Milk. I will be curious to see if Best Picture shapes up as predictably as it has, save one or two titles, year after year or if the studios holding back their releases until the 11th hour will have any impact.
We wait and wonder.
No Response for "The Best Picture Shuffle"
Not to be a raving fan, but surely The Dark Knight has a shot at SAG ensemble…Christian, Morgan, Gary, Heath, Aaron, Maggie, Michael…just a thought
well i think it may be to early to leave AUSTRALIA out of the race
what about THE WRESTLER and DEFIANCE?
Now it’s time to take “Changeling” and “The Wrestler” off the contender tracker for BP.
NOOOO!!! Why isn’t Australia on the list? It still have a shot, at getting nominated for Best Picture!!
And where’s The Wrestler?
“Australia” and “Defiance” are both out. End of story.
I agree with Chance: TDK getting a surprise SAG ensemble nod. And also: wouldn’t a PGA nod to Benjamin Button be dependent on its b/o considering it cost so much to make?
Why is Wrestler deemed to be out so soon after the marketing campaign has finally kicked in? Something they said?
I think it has precisely the redemption narrative the Academy swoons over, and, unlike Slumdog, the cumulative effect at the end is not “Whiz, bang! SHOOM, true love! DESTINY!” but a real wash of emotion for a character we’ve grown to know really, really well.
Which brings me to my next point: is there any comparable frontrunner in recent years that has had protagonists as utterly blank as Jamal and Latika? The closest thing resembling character development in Slumdog is that things happen to them, and then better things, and the mandolins assure us that between the things and the things, true love SURELY must have sprouted.
Australia is far from out. Defiance is dead. Wall*e still has a shot. The Wrestler needs to be somewhat big but isn’t out. The Dark Knight could definitely get a SAG nomination. Don’t forget that there are now 11 films that the NBR awards, top ten and then the best is separate. At least that’s how it was last year. NBR usually has some duds. The Bucket List last year, The History Boys in 2006, Memoirs of a Geisha in 2005, Kinsey and Collateral in 2004, etc.
Okay, so The Wrestler is in. And maybe for a SAG ensemble nod too. I don’t know about Australia but I’m not getting the Best Pic vibe.
I really don’t give a shit about the Oscars this year…my only hope is that the Oscars recognize real talent, something they once did. Anne Hathaway should get a best actress nom, Kate Winslet shd win an Oscar, regardless of the category and Voila Davis should get a nom for Doubt.
Are we all sure that THE CHANGELING is out of the big race?
I really DOUBT that!
What about stephen daldry for DGA?
I wouldn’t leave Australia out at this moment—It could easily garner a lot of first place votes from certain Academy members that let it sneak into the nominations unexpectedly.
I think (regarding Best Picture):
Milk – definitely Oscar & SAG Ensemble material (the full house last night applauded long, screamed and cheered)
Slumdog Millionaire – Oscar, not so much SAG (but only because the actors are unknown)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – definitely Oscar, definitely SAG (see Milk)
Revolutionary Road – definitely Oscar (not if I had to decide), probably SAG (because of Kathy Bates, Richard Easton, Michael Shannon, Kathryn Hahn and David Harbour)
The Dark Knight – as much a SAG candidate as an Oscar candidate, which is to say: Wait out the heavyhitters arriving these next weeks
The Reader – one of those heavyhitters (I haven’t seen it yet, so I can’t say anything)
Frost/Nixon – see The Reader
Doubt – strong SAG contender, does not feel “big” enough for Oscar
Rachel Getting Married – I haven’t seen it, but it has SAG ensemble written all over it
Gran Torino – it’s Clint, but…I don’t think so
The Wrestler – if anything, SAG ensemble (but, because most of the cast are professional wrestlers, I doubt it)
and then there’s the one left off the list, which I’m seeing tomorrow: Australia. I have a sneaky feeling this is going to be a big surprise…
I’d put Australia on that list for now.
Same with Defiance. Craig, Screiber, Bell, Holocaust.
Wall-E should absolutely be on the list. Wall-E will make top 10’s in all of the critics circle’s awards I think.
PGA locks
The Dark Knight will win I think.
SAG locks
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Doubt
Oscar locks
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Films which seem unlikely
Frost/Nixon
Australia
Doubt
Rachel Getting Married
Gran Torino
The Wrestler
Which leaves
The Reader
Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight &
Wall-E
fighting for 2 remaining spots.
By God is it a weak year compared to 2007!
I think the Academy showed incredible support when nominating Moulin Rouge [which I loved, but it was an early release with lukewarm reviews and wasn't exactly a financial success] so I’m not so quick to write off Australia because of early reactions.
And I think SAG will be random like last year, when only one BP nominee was nominated for the SAG. One of this year’s random nominees could be Rachel Getting Married perhaps?
I agree “The Dark Knight” not only has a shot at the SAG, it will be nominated for best ensemble cast with Heath, plus everyone else. Even Maggie was good in that movie. Also, with the DVD hitting the market before Christmas reminding people of the grand film making the movie achieves, I could honestly see TDK “Crash”-ing Best Picture. Think about a Batman movie doing that!
Also, Paul when I saw “Milk” two weeks ago, no one cared for it. “Slumdog” however made the crowd go wild.
Mileshigh, was that before or after the election that you saw Milk?
[...] at Awards Daily, Sasha Stone has taken it upon herself to whittle down the Best Picture race to a brisk 11-title list, and it makes for sobering [...]
“I can see Doubt and Frost/Nixon hitting all of the stops.”
well yeah, you say that, but then you cleverly leave John Patrick Shanley off the DGA list.
It’s been 18 years since a studio has let Shanley anywhere near a director’s chair. He had to hold his own play hostage in order to get another director’s gig.
I’m excited about the writing and performances, but remain skeptical about Shanley’s abilities to create a Best Picture. Unless he’s secretly attended film school sometime during the last two decades. He might’ve received a disability scholarship on the basis of Joe and the Volcano.
Replace Gran Torino with Wall-E and it’s accurate.
My two thoughts upon seeing this post:
1) Rachel Getting Married probably belongs in the SAG contender list.
2) Gran Torino doesn’t look anywhere near a short list Oscar contender to me.
I think this will be the first year in some time in which Clint makes a film or two and is ignored by the Academy.
I see The Dark Knight winning the PGA based on the financial and artistic success alone. Could that make way for Christopher Nolan winning a well-deserved DGA? One hopes…
Based on having seen both Doubt and Frost/Nixon, I would say that neither warrant a Best Picture nomination. The acting is fantastic in Doubt (save, unbelievably Meryl Streep) with Hoffman, Davis and Adams bringing the true talent to the table.
Frost/Nixon, on the other hand, has Howard delivering competent moments and the tension between Sheen and Langella seems realistic enough, but not one worthy of a Best Picture nomination.
But I agree with the above posts: Rachel Getting Married deserves a SAG nomination and a DGA nomination for Jonathan Demme.
My two cents…and probably more to follow.
Wall-E is not going to make Best Picture, guys, give it up. It has its own category. The Academy is dominated by actors. Actors like movies with their faces in them.
Also, Australia has “positive reviews” but it doesn’t have the kind of rave reviews a best picture needs. The reviews that are good are mostly respectful, except for Oprah. If that sentiment changes, if it kills at the box office great, we’ll add it but right now it doesn’t look like a contender. Am I wrong?
p.s. seeing Benjamin Button today, Milk tomorrow.
What about…
Nothing but the Truth?
Sasha, the only reason why I, for one, see ‘Australia’ as a possible BP contender is because ‘Moulin Rouge’ made it IN in a tougher year.
‘Australia’ is being released in a prime Oscar time (’Moulin’ wasn’t and still got in). ‘Australia’ looks to be more of an AMPAS-friendly film than even ‘Moulin’ was.
‘Australia’ also LOOKS to be a contender in the same-ish categories.
It may very well make more $$ than ‘Moulin’, and it has positive reviews from no less than 5 major critics already.
‘Moulin’ also had quite a fair share of cynics.
This all can change (for the worse). ‘Australia’ could very well bomb-out. But having something like ‘Gran Torino’ up there and not ‘Australia’ at this particular point in the race doesn’t seem quite right to me. Just my opinion, though.
If Doubt receives 3 or 4 acting nominations (3 is like guarantied at this moment), I think it will definitely be a BP nominee. You should not count it out because of its not “big” enough appeal. See Michael Clayton as an example.
Some Oscar pundits have had it in for ” Australia” from the get-go. Maybe because it’s a Baz fillm, maybe because Nicole is in it, maybe because Hugh Jackman is such a beefcake, maybe because the film isn’t that good. I still think it has a shot at BP. I think it is premature to say that it is out right now. I would give it at least two more weeks to throw this one back in the water. I have read ten or more good to great reviews on the film and yes they all said the film had it’s flaws. I guess because it hasn’t received a five star review from a critic then all hope is lost. It will be interesting to see what USA Today and EW gives it. At least Tom O’ Neil is backing “Australia” as a contender.
I agree that Doubt may sneak in because it may be the only film with multiple acting nods [a la Michael Clayton]. Of course, Michael Clayton most definitely deserved a BP nod based solely on the writing and direction, in my opinion.
Have to add my shit to this:
I will post my yearly oscar-column in a week or something on a german movie page (if someone is interested, but it´s in german, sorry: http://www.paderkino.de), and I will predict the following five:
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
I was a bit confused about “Gran Torino”, cause they are really excited like hell about Clint, but I guess they´ll leave it with an best actor-nominee for him this time.
Though For Australia, I am predicted USA Today to give it three stars and EW to give it a B or B-. Which if that is the case, then it will be hard for this film to even be remotely considered an Oscar BP contender.
My predictions for right now for the big 5:
Dark Knight – Too big to ignore. I envision lots of 1s on the ballots.
Slumdog Millionaire – The only potential feel-gooder.
Milk – Great acting, wonderful reviews, thus far.
Reader – I think this will surprise many; and LOOK at the pedigree.
then, a 3-way race for the 5th spot ……..
Curious Case of BB – If it misses at all, it may miss by a mile. Of course, it could also win the whole shebang if good enough.
Revolutionary Road – Acting may be great, but many concerns over the screenplay (I see the same thing happening with Doubt, F/Nixon).
Australia – Could get tons of 1s. Could miss by a mile.
My 2 cents for now.
I’m fine with ‘Dark Knight’ getting a nomination. But other than that, the only film that interests me on this list is ‘Milk.’
Howard, Luhrmann, Aranofsky – make AWFUL films.
Demme, Mendes, Doyle, Daldry, and Shanley are hit and miss.
Fincher is interesting, and Zodiac was incredible – but I dunno…
Eastwood, well -maybe.
But Van Sant is a master.
Which reminds me, why isn’t ‘Paranoid Park’ being considered? It’s a masterpiece. I know, I know… it came out too early.
After the floodgates opened on great films last year, this year seems INCREDIBLY thin in comparison.
All I can say is I’m disappointed in this ‘new,’ list, not to mention bored out of my mind – and like the Miley Cyrus debacle of last year, I for one will NOT be watching the Oscars. It boggles how I can watch a film get sterling reviews right out of the gate, complete with Oscar buzz, and then have it booted for films that have not even been reviewed, or released. It’s almost like I can hear the collective gears clicking from these highschool-like prevaricators…’Oh damn, THAT movie is getting such good Oscar buzz…arrrggh…well…let’s wait until we get ‘the list,’ of who we’ll all feel that much better voting for, so we can bump THAT movie out of contention!’ Hahaha. It’s almost like these ‘predictors,’ have more power than the PR agencies. Not that either one is a positive. It all makes for an unfair shake all around.
I am curious as well if 20th Century Fox will lure voters with perks and such for ” Australia” much like they did ” Hello Dolly” almost 40 years ago. Though times have changed since then, yet studios still use their influence to get Oscar nods.
Van Sant a master? To each his/her own I guess.
I have a feeling we’ll surprised come nomination time, just a gut feeling. Each movie we think will get nominated may not. I’m getting this strange feeling.
Australia looks damn good to me – could be that the trailer is just brilliant (Pearl Harbor was like that), but right now I’m excited to see it. Jackman seems mesmerizing. I saw Changeling, mainly because of the sterling reviews I read, and colleagues who saw it at the NY Film Festival, it did not disappoint. That’s called old time movie making and just raw bones acting. It’s garnered amazing reviews, and Angelina is as good or better in it than she was in ‘A Mighty Heart,’ and I thought she deserved a nomination last year, as did most of the other acting bodies, which is why she was all over the red carpets at Award season. It’s all about Cliques and underdogs with the bloggers – going with the ‘off’ selection or as of yet unreleased selection,’ to argue booting a big A list feature from the group…it’s like they look, pray and hope for reasons to excise those films thought to be locks just two weeks ago.
Have to agree with Russ, the epics are easily disdained since much money and time have gone in them. Of course, everyone has been disappointed in the last few years with epics: Alexander, Atonement and even Cold Mountain come to mind. Many people on the Oscar boards want the smaller films to get all the glory. Batman is getting most of the attention because of Ledger’s passing. Though it was a good movie, but I doubt it would even be considered for BP if it weren’t for the Ledger performance.
I’ve heard that Australia is quite good. I read a review yesterday that was positive. It is too soon to write it off.
And the fact that Dark Knight grossed 2nd to ” Titanic”
Anton,
I have to ask if you’re wondering why Paranoid Park isn’t getting recognition as an Oscar contender, why are you even following the Oscars? It’s a bit like asking why Bjork hasn’t taken the Grammys by storm yet. It’s a great movie but far from the kind of film that gets recognized by the Academy.
I tend to agree with Sasha regarding Australia. It’s got to get a much bigger bump then Oprah gave it to work it’s way into contention. It’s definitely possible, but not necessarily plausible at this point. I think it falls into the category of movies like Che, Gran Torino, Seven Pounds and Valkyrie. You can’t necessarily completely count out these movies, but with 7 or 8 serious contenders already making the rounds and flexing their muscles, it’s going to be hard to going.
The Reader is dead. It has Notes on a Scandal written all over it. Put Australia on the list. Now. Oprah+Baz+Thanksgiving+Kidman = FAR FROM OUT.
As much as I would love to “call” it right now, let us not forget how big of a shoo-in Dreamgirls was
My gut (and by that, I mean movies I’ve seen and love/like/hate, buzz I’ve heard, and playing this game for some years now) tells me:
Dark Knight: Undeniable genre busting and success, plus Ledger’s story, a solid cast, and what it would mean if the Academy awarded a film that all the “Joe the Plummer’s” loved too. They’ve awarded too many Crash’s, in the opinions of many.
Benjamin Buttons: Magical realism is always fun! Cate is in it, so it practically has to get nominated for something, plus with Brad, it’s his moment to shine (not necessarily with his own nomination) in a very Angie vs. Jen year.
Milk: Sean Penn, rave reviews and Prop 8. ‘Nuff said.
Revolutionary Road: WILL SOMEONE PLEASE GIVE THESE TWO AN OSCAR ALREADY!!! Lol. The only way voters wouldn’t consider it BP would be if Kate & Leo were given nods.
Changeling: This sounds like a “risky” opition, based on how this board is sounding… but after seeing it I couldn’t stop thinking about Angelina, the story, the direction…. Maybe I’m wrong, but we all know what can happen. Plus, Angelina has some good ink this year, and how fun would it be to see Angelina and Brad attend the ceremony as nominees?
“It’s got to get a much bigger bump then Oprah gave it to work it’s way into contention”
Umm, correct me if I’m wrong, but Oprah is a FUCKING HUGE bump. CNN was doing stories about how Oprah may have gotten Obama elected for crissakes.
That said, I wouldn’t have Australia on my shortlist either. Remember Oprah did a whole show about Love In The Time Of Cholera. Ugh.
I like your final 11 Sasha, its right on the nose!
On a different note, if the Academy wants to lift its sagging ratings in 2009 they will have to nominate The Dark Knight. More people always tune in when a megahit is nominated in multiple categories. And frankly the nomination would be deserved.
my predictions
Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog
–Milk will be the winner
–Nolan will take best director
–Leo will take best actor
Well, Scott … word was (only a week ago) that ‘Changeling’ was still being kicked around a lot in AMPAS circles.
It ain’t dead, yet.
And I still think Angelina will be in the Top 5.
Having seen Australia (and despite being and Aussie), I see no reason why this film should be a BP contender. Yes it looks epic but as with Moulin Rouge it’s all surface; too much arteface to be engaging. No acting nods either.
And judging by the regular responses on this site, I seem to be one of the few film lovers who weren’t blown away by TDK. Still, I’d rate it ahead of Australia.
I’ve also seen Defiance and don’t think it has a shot in any major category.
Seeing Slumdog this week and Frost/Nixon the following. Fingers crossed.
I think….
Revolutionary Road( Oscar, Golden Globe Drama, Sag, Bafta)
The Reader(GG Drama, Bafta)
Rachel Getting Married(GGcomedy,SAG)
The Wrestler(GG D or C)
The Dark Knigth(Oscar, GGD, SAG, Bafta)
The Curious Case of benjamin Buttom(GGD, SAG; BAFTA)
Milk(Oscar, GGD, SAG)
Doubt(Oscar,GGD)
Slumdog Millionarie(Oscar,Bafta)
Frost/Nixon(GG mmmmmmm……)
Australia(I´m sorry but….)
Defiance( Good Luck)
Wall-E(mmmmmmmm……Its better)
Where will the British vote go? I mean we all know how Atonement got in last year, will they throw a bone to their old penal colony? David Frost? The Dark Knight (so much British talent in there, in front of and behind the camera)?
The academy likes awarding directors for multiple nominations, that is why if Rev. Road is as good as this site is saying, they will love to nominate Mendes and his film again… same with Gus Van Sant, and Frost Nixon (Ron Howard, Peter Morgan, Langella, Michael Sheen).
The Dark Knight and Slumdog are two exceptions which are the kind that simultaneously celebrate a director’s work and are also great movies in themselves, that is how they get first nominations. You can’t say that about any of the other contenders.
At this point the other movies on that list are golden globe nominees at best
As far as multiple Oscar nominations this year goes — I know, most of these are extremely unlikely):
Kate Winslet
Clint Eastwood
Brad Pitt
Josh Brolin
Baz Luhrmann
Ralph Fiennes
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Michelle Williams
Put Wall-E on the list!!!!!!!!!
Milk will not win BP. It will not get the box office that Brokeback Mountain received . I doubt it breaks $30 million in the States. It is a small film with excellent acting. I have no doubt it will garner a BP nod , director, actor, and supporting actor. Most likely a screenplay. So yes, it will be like The Hours in regards to nominations. With possibly an acting win with Penn.
the dark night is the best movie of 2008
Sasha, as an actor, I will defer from speaking for all of us but I have to believe that many actors, while vain enough to ghetto-ize animation, have an innate storytelling instict and they will have to respond to the fact that WALL-E had more heart, soul and romance than any other film in this or many recent years. Superlative filmmaking is superlative filmmaking, and actors’ vanity doesn’t stop their hearts from beating.
But Jonah, actors don’t have souls!
LOL, “The Dark Knight” isn’t even in the Top 3 best movies of 2008, and it ain’t over yet!
Best Picture predictions:
“Revolutionary Road” (with as many as 11 nods)
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (as many as 13)
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“Milk”
So I think I just saw the Best Pic winner. Still have to see Milk and Gran Torino but I’m thinking BB is it. All the way. Most nods going in and should handily win Director, Picture, adapted screenplay – though Revolutionary Road will give it a run there. The question is how many nods it will get.
I agree with Sasha that Australia seems unlikely as a BP nominee. Yes, the Hollywood Reporter and Variety gave both a “positive” review, but they were both lukewarm positive reviews (one gave an 80 and one a 70 to the film on metacritic). In other words, not raves. Some of the “buzz” on the movie is downright bad, although I realize we can’t judge these things solely on buzz.
Still…plus the trailer makes me roll my eyes…
A couple other random thoughts:
I also agree that Slumdog Millionaire seems like the only BP lock right now. Despite its merits (I haven’t seen the movie), the movie appears to have moved into the “beloved puppy” slot that Oscar gives a BP nod to every year (Juno, Little Miss Sunshine etc).
No way that Milk, Frost/Nixon, and Doubt all make the BP list. They’re all too similar, in a weird way–character-driven, actor-driven “issue-y” movies. One will make it on the BP list for sure, possibly two, but not all three. (Doubt seems the least likely, at this point, even if it gets three or more acting nods. This does not necessarily mean a BP nomination. Remember “Iris”?)
That’s another thing The Dark Knight may have going for it. Besides the Heath factor, besides the “too big to ignore” factor, it’s the only movie of its type that’s a serious contender, which may make it stand out.
I’m interested to see how The Reader does.
My best BP guess as of now: Slumdog Millionaire. Curious Case of BB. Milk. The Dark Knight. Revolutionary Road. Frost/Nixon a possible substitute for anything except Slumdog.
Sasha
What is your feel regarding acting nods for “BB” ?
Will what you just saw cause you to make any adjustments in your acting categories ?
Chris Price,
Regarding the “Oprah bump”, I only remember it being really being a factor with Crash, and that was more because the film was released so early in the year and benefitted a great deal from Oprah doing a special on it to remind voters it existed. Australia is already going to be fresh in voters minds. It has a big promotional push and is being released during the holiday season. I don’t think anything she says about it is going to sway voters one way or another or make them reconsider what they think about a movie that hasn’t even been widely released yet.
Again, each year has special circumstances that don’t necessarily pertain to the next year. If The Dark Knight had been released last year, not this year, there would likely be no conversation about it as a serious oscar contender…
Now if Oprah did a special on Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day…
Sasha,
When will you be updating your awards tracker? I’m hoping Leo won’t be bumbed… and hoping Cate Blanchett makes it in the line up.
The Reader and Gran Torino still might flip the race a bit. I thought that Blanchett and Pitt were superb. I don’t know if Pitt will get a nod but he certainly deserves one; I don’t think the movie would work without him. Blanchett could win. Taraji P. Hensen is also great and will most likely be the frontrunner to win supporting actress. Basically you’re looking at a film that will likely sweep. Not sure how it will break down with acting categories. It is easily one of the best films of the year. Button and Slumdog are locked for Best Pic. Three slots open.
Pleeeeaase write a review or something!!!!!! I desperately need to know how Benjamin Button is! I’ve been waiting for months!
OMG Sasha if you tell us anymore I’ll be simultaneously excited and violently jealous. I already am, but AHHH!! And imagine my joy that we’ll have for the first time in 4 years a movie that gets more than 9 nominations, not to mention the first time in 5 years a film’s gonna, like, sweep the whole damn thing. I’m thinking back to the 90s and smiling, remembering all those Oscar juggernauts. THIS IS REALLY AWESOME NEWS.
i think the 5 will be
revolutionary road
benjamin button
milk
slumdog millionaire
doubt
the reader, australia, the dark knight and frost/ nixon miss the boat!!!!
Those of you who doubt Gran Torino’s chances obviously weren’t paying attention in 2003, 2004, and 2006. Eastwood gets Oscar nominations. A Best Actor bid for Gran Torino seems all but assured, and Picture, Directing and Original Screenplay are very possible.
Granted, the trailer does not make it look good. The acting appears wooden and stagey, except Eastwood, who is just doing his standard growl. But hey, clunky acting didn’t sink Eastwood’s previous Oscar darlings, so maybe it won’t matter.
Sasha—at last we agree…. !!!
I knew you would push the Button…
Wasn’t Pitt a revelation?
So, cate can shut Jolie out ? LOL
Even if Pitt gets a nod he will not be attending the cerimony without Angelina getting a nod.
Sasha
I noticed that Tapley saw it as well. He appears to be less impressed with Pitt’s performance
“Brad Pitt does not blow the role of Benjamin Button out of the water and perhaps he underplays it a bit too much. “
Sasha,
What does your PREDICTED Best Actor line up look like now?
I think Angelina could still get in. Paul, cool! Finally! Yes, Pitt was a revelation.
Re: Tapley – yeah, I talked to him a bit about it and it’s true, he wasn’t as impressed with Pitt – I certainly was. And it isn’t just because he looks so goddamned beautiful when he’s young — it’s the scenes where he’s old that he is the best. He’s so good – underplays it so well. AMAZING. Maybe it’s because, though it’s written by a man and directed by a man it very much feels like a female perspective in certain ways. Pitt blew my shit out.
Best actor lineup
Mickey Rourke vs. Frank Langella vs. Clint Eastwood
Sean Penn (these all seem locked) then it’s Leonardo DiCaprio or Benicio Del Toro. Those are my best guesses at this point.
Actress: Kate Winslet (locked), Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep (locked), Kristin Scott Thomas, Anne Hathaway. Also – Melissa Leo or Angelina could get in. It’s still tough to call this one.
I feel confident that these are locks:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
And if I were a betting man, I’d say the final slot will probably go to one of the following three: Doubt, Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler
No Australia? Are you kidding? Just because the critics won’t support it, that movie has Oscar written all over it. And as far as not having “rave reviews”? Am I missing something? Only a handful of critics have posted their reviews but it’s already 73% on RT… how are those reviews not good enough to get it noticed/seen? I think this is far more likely than Milk, Frost/Nixon, The Wrestler and many of the other movies you mentioned. it’s a movie basically made for industry people who miss the films of olde… it’s Titanic basically.
Sasha,
Re: The Reader
Do you think the movie might get rewarded in directing, writing, acting and technical categories and not in the BP category because of how Weinstein handled the post production? On the flip side, do you think the positive sentiment towards Minghella and his involvement in the project might boost it’s chances towards a BP nod?
Re: the Best Actor Race
Tom Cruise
Benicio del Toro
Leonardo DiCaprio
Clint Eastwood
Hugh Jackman
Richard Jenkins
Frank Langella
Viggo Mortensen
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke
Will Smith
Which actors will make the cut this year?
My opinion’s obvious…okay, Del Toro for Che and Viggo for Good are nothing more than sight unseen wishful thinking. They’ll probably be knocked out of the running by Pitt (which I wouldn’t mind) and DiCaprio.
Sasha
Unlike Penn,Rourke,Langella, so few have seen Eastwood’s performance, including you, so why would you consider him a BA lock ?
Also, I enjoyed reading your comments above, have you elaborated more somewhere else on this site about “RR” ?
As you so kindly responded to my questions the other night, but I hoped you would post more of a commentary on the movie as a whole.
Ed, when the rave reviews start rolling out and if it gets on the NBR list I will believe in Australia – right now two people I know and trust said “it sucked.” That worries me somewhat. We’ll see.
Re: Weinstein – I think if The Reader is good it won’t matter. Weinstein has made a career of doing assholish things. So far it hasn’t really gotten in the way of films he backs doing well.
Helena – I’ll be reviewing RR later. Too much hype can kill a movie this early out so I’m being careful with how I talk about the film.
Eastwood: basing it on having read the script, his reputation in this town and what people who have seen it have said.
Australia may be too long and too Baz for some critics and Oscar pundits. Yea, if it misses the NBR then it pretty much is out of the picture. Like I said, it is too premature, but by early December this film will either be a contender or a dismal Awards failure. I don’t know how it will do at the Box Office here in the States. Doesn’t seem to be too much excitement about it’s release with the general public. Maybe some good television and newspaper ads ( meaning praise from critics) will get movie goers who haven’t been to a film in a long time out for a three hour “epic”. I can see this film doing quite well with the 45-70 age group if it gets good reviews here in the U.S.
I actually watched The Dark Knight again tonight on the Big Screen. It was really interesting to see it a few months after all the mega hype. Upon my 4th viewing ( I saw the first 3 viewings in a 2 week period in July) I must say that I will be shocked if The Dark Knight doesn’t WIN the PGA. I think Nolan is probably the only lock right now for a DGA Nom. I think the acting in the film is too big for SAG to ignore.It gets in there. That leaves WGA. It’s a longshot but it could happen. If TDK gets 3 out of 4 Guild noms then it is getting a Best Picture nomination. Plain and simple. I do wonder if both Revolutionary Road and The Reader either cancel each other out or turn off a lot of voters. That being said, here are my 5 nominees that I think will end up getting a Best Picture Nomination:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
The Wrestler
You will notice I don’t have Slumdog on there. The reason is this, yes Little Miss Sunshine and Juno got in. They also were very big hits at the Box Office. I don’t see Slumdog being that big of a hit. I hope I am wrong. I am seeing the film in 2 weeks. Ditto for Milk. I think it might be this year’s Almost Famous/ Into the Wild. I also could see a split in Picture/Director where the Academy rewards something safer like Button or Frost in Picture and Nolan in Direction. There’s my two cents.
I got five bucks right here that says Australia makes the NBR list and gets a Golden Globe BP nomination. It was never going to appeal to critics, not with sort of idealistic optimism about a world at war… this is exactly what Tom O’Neil has talked about for a long time, that critics are not in touch with the Academy voters and those who actually work in the industry, and Australia’s success during awards season will be living proof of it.
“critics are not in touch with the Academy voters and those who actually work in the industry”
Thank goodness for that!
Dare I say that I don’t place a lot of value on what Tom O’Neil says when it comes to Oscars? He’s the guy who declared that “Sweeney Todd” would win BP last year, and didn’t he make some of those same “Australia”-type arguments–the critics are out of touch with the Academy and the industry, and he expected “Sweeney” to do better with the industry voters? Etc etc.
And while I know the critic faves don’t always match up with Oscar, more often than not, the movies that make the BP list are quite well reviewed by critics overall. I’m not convinced that there’s this huge divide between what the critics like and what the industry likes.
With that said, I could see “Australia” getting a Globe BP nod more than I can see “Australia” figuring into the Oscar race in anything other than techie categories.
As for the Best Actor race, it’s getting crowded, as usual. A week ago I was sure that Sean Penn, Frank Langella, and Mickey Rourke were locks. I still think they will all make the list, but I’m slightly less certain this week. I think Leo/Brad will get Slot #4 (one nominated but not both?). The fifth slot–umm. Benicio? Clint? I just know too little about the Eastwood movie to have any sort of opinion. I am wondering, though, if this reflexive Eastwood-nomination thing will come to an end this year.
Put Wall-E on the list!!!!!
Please take Gran Torino off the list. The trailer looks terrible. Talk about Dirty Harry-AARP version. Clint’s talents truly lie behind the camera these days.
I say the 5 are:
The Dark Knight
Slumdog
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Milk
I’m shakey about having two fantasy flicks(DK and BB) in the 5, but we shall see. I am not wild about DK and the momentum sees to have died. Doubt is going to be embraced by the acting branch and that will push it in.
All this talk of Australia being “out” and “dead in the water” reminds me of last year when everyone and their mother was sticking a fork in Atonement before we were even a month away from nominations. Don’t count out Australia, regardless of what critics say. Critics hated Baz’s last film, and that made it all the way to the big stage.
Sasha,
Don’t you think that Doubt has the acting advantage over the other films and with a great script it should make into top 5, I suppose. And on the other hand for best actress race, so in the end the race goes down to the fight of two women: Meryl and Kate. As you say they are locks. Which one has the advantage right now in your opinion?
A WORD OR TWO ABOUT DEFIANCE:
According to sources (co-producer, family of the author) that I trust and respect, this movie cannot be so easily dismissed. I haven’t seen it but I am very curious. And with Craig, Schreiber and Bell on board, who can say? It will be at least a week and a half before I catch a screening and form my own opinion.
Alesque, I think Doubt has a lot of acting noms sewn up as well as one slot for SAG Ensemble.. don’t think it’ll do as well among critics and won’t have the groundswell of support of some of the other movies. Australia isn’t Sweeney Todd. I certainly wouldn’t have put a lot of support behind it after seeing a preview and after seeing the movie, it was apparent to me that this wasn’t the kind of movie Academy voters support… Australia is and I believe that it will probably be seen by enough people, some repeatedly, to gain support among NBR, HFPA and ultimately, the Oscar voters who will probably appreciate what Baz is doing more than critics. (As Nick pointed out, not a lot of critics loved Moulin Rouge either) Believe me, I’m not one to blindly agree with Tom O. in any circumstances, but in this case, I think he’s right. There’s just no way Australia can be left off a potential BP list based solely on two of Sasha’s friends not liking it.
Sorry, Ed, my two friends are prominent writers in the industry, specifically OUR industry. I don’t want to out them but they’re in the business of being predictors. I’m not saying Australia is definitely OUT or that my list above won’t change – hell, it’s November – when we do the Best Picture shuffle in two weeks you bet it will be different. This is how it looks to me right now pre-Thanksgiving. A lot can change. A LOT. In good and bad ways.
And of course, IFC STILL hasn’t done it’s STEALTH, Last minute push for “Hunger.” Michael Fessenden’t performance as Irish Hunger Striker Bobby Sands looks like the LAST performance the Academy is going to see…And it’s the one(he dies of starvation, in all its’ horrifying stages) RIGHT IN FRONT OF YOU. I mean, it makes Tom Hanks in “Castaway” look like dieting…
And he got nominated…
But holding all these pictures RR, BB, Doubt, F/Nand the Reader to the last minute…it’s maddening…but EVERYbody’s doing it this year.
“Milk” is out-of-the-ball-park brilliant…I’d say it’s in for sure…And it’s so good, it may even sweep TWO best Supp. actors, in James Franco and Josh Brolin. Double supp. actors can sometime and often does, happen, when something is such a BP slam-dunk. And of course, Sean Penn is a no-brainer for a nomination and probably the win….
And another reason they are holding SOOOO many films back is that BB, RR, Doubt,The Reader, and F/R are all small-ish art house films…All of which could come out and BOMB – at the box-office…Holding them all til so late is indicative to me of a certain skittish-ness about ALLL of them.
They are all copying TWBB’s rather BRILLIANT non-platforming PR campaign of last year. Keep in a half dozen theaters. Make people line up. All these films are also something that the critics, myself included, will probably LOVE…
Are any of those films B.O. grabbers? Remains to be seen…
The NBR who, despite what others may think, WANTS to be an accurate Oscar predictor…I hear they are high on BB and “Milk’… Whatever they name and they are seeing all the films we haven’t seen in the next few days…
And as Sasha says, “Wall-E” has its’ own category and will win there. So that as they say is that. And ” ‘Australia’ sucks” is kind of a mantra that I’ve been hearing here since it first started screening. Nobody likes it. Except Oprah. Who also championed “Cholera” last year which nobody went to see and got ZERO nominations.
Films that have been out and playing and MAKING money like “Rachel” and also, lest we forget to look at the B.O. charts, “Changeling” are also films that cannot be ruled out…
Steven, the problem is that IFC are not even opening Hunger in NY for Oscar consideration (as they are with Che)… and I think a similar gambit might have hurt 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days from getting nominated in the Foreign Language category last year. I guess they figured that the movies played at the NY Film Festival so everyone in NY saw them and they realize the movie isn’t eligible for NY critics’ awards (which is really the only way Fassbender can get enough attention to be taken seriously in an Oscar run). Che also has 42 West on board the campaign and that seems to be where IFC’s allegiances lie. They’re giving Hunger a nominal Oscar consideration run in L.A., but nothing in New York until next year.
Sasha, I can’t believe you won’t even add Australia to a list of potential BP nominations when it’s clearly more likely than half your list… Rachel Getting Married… really? I think Sony Classics is putting their little money into getting Anne and Deborah Winger nominations and the movie’s just not making enough money to be taken seriously as a BP contender. Demme? Please… maybe it’ll get a screenplay but he’s even less likely than Jason Reitman was last year and Rachel ain’t no Juno. (And I can take a wild guess who those two writers are and probably be right )
Edward: You have to remember, though, that what constitutes financial success is not just a matter of how much a movie grosses at the box-office. You also have to factor in production costs. “Rachel Getting Married” has so far earned over eight million at the box-office in a limited release of under 400 theaters. As the number of screens increases, the numbers should go up. The movie cost only $12 million to make, so if it breaks over $12 million, as I expect it eventually will, won’t the movie at least be perceived as marginally profitable?
Indie movies with small budgets don’t have to make huge amounts of money to be perceived as financially successful. Remember “Secrets and Lies” back in 1996. It received a BP nomination and was considered a financial success although it made a paltry amount of money compared to most Hollywood movies.
That’s actually a big reason why I think “Australia” is NOT going to make the BP list–box-office. According to an article in THE NY DAILY NEWS today, the conservative estimates are that the film cost $120 million to make. A more likely figure is supposedly $190-$200 million. In short, “Australia” is going to have to do blockbuster business to be perceived as a box-office success. If it makes $100 million (which I doubt it will), the movie will be considered a box-office “disappointment” because it will have lost money.
Do I think “Rachel Getting Married” will end up with a BP nomination? Probably not. But at the end of the day, I expect that “Rachel Getting Married” will be perceived as more of a box office success than “Australia”, even if Rachel ends up making only $15-20 million and “Australia” ends up making something like $70-80 million.
Rachel Getting Married, without a doubt, deserves to be up there. Demme is still well respected and the film was very well recieved. I don’t see why it’s an issue if Sasha didn’t feel the need to add Australia. I like the list, it makes sense if you really think about it. Honestly, I think Australia is going to open to mixed reviews and if that happens, it will help us see where the film goes from there. If it’s raved and critics start putting in the word, than we can start going crazy over Australia. So let’s not start hating on the other films Sasha put on the list all because Australia is missing. If you believe in the film, that’s all that should matter.
Oh…
“The Reader is dead. It has Notes on a Scandal written all over it. Put Australia on the list. Now. Oprah+Baz+Thanksgiving+Kidman = FAR FROM OUT”. – The W Man
I just find this comment laughable. Clearly you haven’t read The Reader. I hope these people who cannot stand Australia not being on the list have seen the film.
It would be interesting to see some research on Best Picture nominations over the past 10 or so years and where they stand on a site like Rotten Tomatoes in terms of % of rotten/fresh.
There aren’t many glowing reviews for Australia right now, but looking at Moulin Rouge just now, it has an overall rating of only 78% and it garnered a lot of nominations.
JP, check this out:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/?p=3265
I would say that you can’t really rule out any of these films for best picture. They did pull some moves last year and got Juno nominated when it was no where near best picture, screenplay yes, but best picture absolutely not. Assassination of Jesse James punched Juno in the dick…I am personally a huge fan of The Wrestler, and look forward to seeing a lot of these films
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