Right after the SAG noms, EW’s Dave Karger, who has been predicting The Artist to win since very early in the season, tweeted out “bad news for Hugo – no film in 15 years has won Best Picture without a SAG nomination.” That’s some good research, there. And indeed, you have to go back to Braveheart to find a film that won Best Picture without a SAG nom. Almost all of them, even if they didn’t have individual acting nods, had an ensemble nod at least.
By my count, then, and according to Karger’s rule, the only films that can win are: The Artist, Moneyball, The Descendants and The Help (always comes down to those) – I guess Midnight in Paris if you want to stretch it. However, the thing to remember is that rules are meant to be broken. I would never simply resign to this truth. After all, The Social Network’s loss last year broke an even longer tradition of critics awards aligning and a Best Picture not winning. Kathryn Bigelow’s win broke 82 years of Oscar history. Imagine if someone had said “no woman has won Best Director in 82 years.” Was that going to stop me or you from believing that Bigelow could win? No.
When people said “no black actors have ever won lead on the same night” that door was kicked right down too. Okay, so we’re not talking about sexism or racism – we’re talking about the idea that the actors rule the Oscars. We know this to be true. We know that movies without acting nominations have a really hard time winning Best Picture. That was Avatar’s problem (along with a lack of a screenplay nomination) and it could be Hugo and War Horse’s problem. Neither of them have any standout acting performances, although I am partial to Asa Butterfield’s portrayal of Hugo.
But you can take it as you will — The Artist is the frontrunner to win. It will have to be overtaken by a different film to lose its spot right now. It is on track to win the PGA, the DGA — if it beats The Help for ensemble at the SAGs you will not be able to stop it for Oscar. That would be akin to Slumdog Millionaire winning ensemble at the SAG, which it did. That means, sweep baby sweep.
This year, I’m not so willing to let the SAG rule rule. I do think an acting nomination at the Oscars IS important, however. What hurts Hugo more than even the lack of acting nods, though, is the 3-D thing. Academy members are by and large luddite traditionalists, and they no likey having to wear glasses and move even a wee bit beyond their comfort zone (I guess that de-selects anal rape scenes too?).
By the way, this dumb actor rule only makes me want Hugo to win all the more.
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