We’ve all had a hand in building the truly dysfunctional atmosphere in which films are rolled out. Most of the time, I’m caught up in it and participate in it and thus, I don’t notice how crazy it all is. But it is crazy. Billy Lynn premiered at the New York Film Festival and was mostly criticized. By some, thoughtfully; by others, not so thoughtfully. The worst part of it, though, was the Oscar framing. While it’s understandable that most of us would want to know if it’s going to be nominated or not, the very fact that so many now watch the movie thinking solely in those terms is a major drag. I wonder if filmmakers are thinking, how do I get out of this chicken-shit outfit? How did the sum total of my ambition take me to the point where people are talking about my work in terms of how 6,000 people are going to be voting a month or so from now. I bet they never thought that when they chose to make films their life’s work, least of all, the great Ang Lee.
One of the reasons I wish I’d gone to the New York festival is so I could have been one of the few to have the movie’s back. I would have Ang Lee’s back, that I can tell you. The last thing I would be doing is gleefully tearing the film apart on Twitter. Sure, there are some thoughtful and interesting reviews, like this one at the Hollywood Reporter. But most of them have been mixed and few of them enthusiastic. I’m pretty sure that I will like the film a lot better than most of the critics, but whatever hope the movie had for a decent rollout might have been hurt by being shown at such a prominent venue with a crowd that clearly did not respond well. Perhaps a smaller initial screening might have been a better way to gently introduce the new format and story. Life of Pi was also criticized out of NYFF and was initially not thought to be an Oscar contender at all. But given the way many people are responding to the 120 fps format, we might be able to surmise that the older and more traditional Oscar voters might not like it either. As it is, the film’s reception is one of the biggest bummers of the year for me personally and I really wish I’d been able to see the film earlier.
So let’s look at the Best Picture race without Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. La La Land was already the frontrunner. It was not going to be overtaken by Billy Lynn, and probably nothing else that screened after Telluride. There just isn’t time to adjust tastes and form a consensus heading into the voting, so come November, it’s harder to shake up the race.
In our predictions earlier today, it went like this:
FRONTRUNNERS
Best Picture
Frontrunners
La La Land
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Moonlight
Fences
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Sully
Silence
Lion
Contenders:
Jackie
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
Live by Night
I might shift it a bit to look like this:
FRONTRUNNERS
Best Picture
Frontrunners
La La Land
Arrival
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Fences
Silence
Loving
Live by Night
Contenders:
Hacksaw Ridge
Jackie
Sully
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Best Director looked like this:
Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Contenders:
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Clint Eastwood, Sully
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
In light of tonight’s NYFF reaction, we’ll switch it to look like this:
Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Contenders:
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Clint Eastwood, Sully
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
I am not ready to drop Billy Lynn completely after these reactions but, as things stand now, I’ll move it from the frontrunners. With a big movie like Billy Lynn set aside, that leaves room for perhaps another big movie like Live by Night, and it makes me think Lion might have a better shot. I’ve also added Hacksaw Ridge to the contenders because with one war movie potentially out, another might take its place. One never knows these things but it’s worth noting.
Either way, this is where we are today. Despite wanting to ignore the noise out of New York, it has become impossible to ignore. I do appreciate the quiet grace of Mark Harris who never gets caught up in the premature demise of a film before it has a chance to hit theaters.
