Predictions Friday: Money Changes Everything

The only real difference between film critics now and film critics when I first started covering the Oscars is that the critics themselves have become a kind of club, their own consensus where some films thrive and others don’t. They’re always promoting the same films because they are, more or less, the same people. Even if they weren’t, they’re still boosting the same films. It sort of blew my mind in 2016 when I read about how polling works. If you take a random sample of 1000 people you can pretty much guarantee agreement, give or take, based on whether or not those people live similar lives and lifestyles. That’s true of critics, or Film Twitter. Even if their lives weren’t similar (though they mostly seem to be), they would lean towards agreeing because agreeing puts you in the club. Of course, if you’re one of the high status types, you can slip in and out of the consensus because you mostly LEAD the consensus.

Voters in the film industry, however, might be similar to the critics in that they too have their own sort of club, and/or you can sample them to figure out which films they will all like best. We got a glimpse of it with the SAG ensemble nominations. We’ll get an even better glimpse in early January, when the PGA and DGA speak. We know because we’ve been doing this for 20 years and that these choices remain frozen in time. When you look back on them in a year, in five years, and in ten years, you see that all the more clearly. You know that predicting the Oscars isn’t now, nor has it ever been, about the best. We know that time decides that. Film awards, even critics awards, don’t.

We know that the Oscars are at a crossroads. They have essentially three options for Best Picture, as far as I can tell. The first is Roma. Alfonso Cuaron’s masterpiece, which has the stamp of approval from the critics and President Obama, is the kind of film that makes the statement: we believe in cinema as art. Full stop. Money doesn’t matter in the presence of greatness. Ah, but there’s a catch. And that catch is kind of like the price tag stuck to the otherwise perfect dress. It’s a Netflix release. Everyone knows this. They must go to war with themselves, their expectations, and how they define what the Oscars themselves mean. To choose Netflix is to choose an uncompromising vision for what cinema is capable of. No stars. No profit. No hashtag popularity. No toy tie-in, no sequel, no source material, no pre-awareness — just pure, raw, brilliant art. It flies in the face of every way the Academy has rewarded studio fare for the past 90 years. Roma is a great preferential ballot pick because it should get both the passion vote and the “I liked it but it’s not my number one” vote. They will want to reward it no matter what. What will the voters do?

We know that they have the choice of another path. To go all in with Big Hollywood, the undeniable future of movies in theaters. No one is going to wait for Black Panther to hit streaming platforms. That is a movie theater movie, to the tune of 700 million domestic. It joins other movies people turned out and paid to see because they couldn’t wait: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, maybe eventually Mary Poppins Returns. These are the “popular” movies that would have been in their own category if the Academy had made their move in that direction. Instead, the awards industry, critics, and bloggers have fully embraced them as best, no compromise necessary. Popular movies ARE good movies! We’re not a dying industry! We live!

In truth, we’re not really talking about all of these movies. We’re really only talking about two for the win (unless we all get a massive surprise when the PGA announces): A Star Is Born and Black Panther. Increasingly, Black Panther appears to be the one gaining momentum. But here’s the catch, and it too stands out like a price tag dangling suspiciously on the back of a new dress: Black Panther is a superhero movie. It’s part of the Marvel universe — you know, the Avengers? You know, the reason Birdman won? Birdman was a vocally anti-superhero movie no matter how many superhero fans try to say otherwise. It won because the industry stood in unity to protest the coming storm. What will the voters do?

Black Panther is a pretty good preferential ballot pick. It COULD get number one votes, depending on how the next month goes. It could also get pushed up the ballot for people who wouldn’t choose it as number one. A Star Is Born is likely a passion choice if it’s anything. It is the kind of film that really needs to win on the first round of voting, which it might. Preferential ballot choices need to be movies people love and don’t hate. That is why both Roma and Black Panther look to be safe choices. Nobody hates them: even more than that, no one could ever, would ever criticize either of them.

I started out this year thinking Black Panther would not even make the cut, but the more the season wears on, it is looking like it has a better than average shot not just to be nominated but to win. Of course, all of this is nothing but a vague guess based on energy and buzz — it could be totally wrong. Ryan Coogler missing out on a DGA nod would be an indicator that it’s a no. That is the one to watch, I figure. If they pick that movie they choose their destiny. Superhero movies will flourish both in the industry awards and in the industry.

What we don’t yet know is which they will resist more — Netflix/streaming vs. superhero franchise. Two existential threats to the status quo. In this case, it is quite possible that at the end of the day money makes the difference. Money, after all, pays all of them. Superhero movies are still movies, and that means they all still have jobs; even if they don’t respect the genre, they still need to work. Pure art must come secondary out of necessity.

The preferential ballot favors passion choices for nominations, because there are only three rounds of voting. For wins, passion matters but so does broad support. Passion could get movies like Vice, or even First Man, or Eighth Grade through.

We will find out soon enough when the Producers Guild announces their top ten of the year. Roma, Black Panther, and A Star is Born will be on that list. Probably also The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Eighth Grade, Vice, Mary Poppins Returns, and A Quiet Place. First Man should be on the list but it’s been shunned because of… money. Money changes everything.

Here are this week’s predictions. There are no frontrunners in any category at the moment. We just have to guess at this point.

Best Picture

Black Panther or Roma or A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Green Book
The Favourite
Bohemian Rhapsody
Vice
Eighth Grade
First Man

Right on the edge:
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Reformed
Mary Poppins Returns

Still possible:
A Quiet Place
Can You Ever Forgive Me

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Right on the edge:
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man

Best Actress

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Right on the edge:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Viola Davis, Widows
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Right on the edge:
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Michael B. Jordan. Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man

Right on the edge:
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Marina de Tavira, Roma

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Right on the edge:
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Adam McKay, Vice
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Original Screenplay

First Reformed — Paul Schrader
Green Book — Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma — Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite — Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Vice — Adam McKay

Right on the edge:
Eighth Grade — Bo Burnham

Adapted Screenplay

BlacKkKlansman — Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
A Star Is Born — Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
If Beale Street Could Talk — Barry Jenkins
Can You Ever Forgive Me — Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
Black Panther — Ryan Coogler

Right on the edge:
First Man — Josh Singer
Widows — Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen

Cinematography

Roma
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
First Man
The Favourite

Editing

Black Panther
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Production Design

Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Roma
First Man
Crazy Rich Asians
Green Book
The Front Runner
Can You Ever Forgive Me
BlacKkKlansman

Sound Mixing

A Star Is Born
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
A Quiet Place

Sound Editing

First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Black Panther
A Quiet Place

Costume Design

Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody

Visual Effects

Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns

Original Score

Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Isle of Dogs
If Beale Street Could Talk

Original Song

“Shallow” — A Star Is Born
“I’ll Fight” — RBG
“Girl in the Movies” — Dumplin’
“Revelation” — Boy Erased
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” — Mary Poppins Returns