We Need to Talk About Best Actress

As with every category this year, there are many different narratives that potentially control the Best Actress race in 2020.

1. No black actress has won in lead before or since Halle Berry in 2001. Twenty years ago.
2. Sophia Loren is 86 and it’s been 50 years since she was last nominated.
3. Netflix can’t dominate the entire category, or can it?
4. It’s a weird year.
5. Actors decide.

I start with Oscar history because I do believe this is going to be something people will eventually start talking about once they begin to dig into the Oscars. I expect it is going to matter when it comes to Best Actress. While I think this every year, it isn’t every year we have the kinds of performances that can win – like Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – like potentially Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday. Like, for instance, Nicole Beharie in Miss Juneteenth. It is worth mentioning, that in 93 years of Oscar history only one black or African American actress has won. I do believe it is going to matter when considering who might win. Will it be the only criteria? Of course not. Voters will have to like the movie and the performance will have to be exceptional in their eyes.

Sophia Loren is yet another Netflix contender, so we can sort of fold them all in together and look at them as a group:

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey
Sophia Loren, A Life Ahead
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Meryl Streep, The Prom

A maximum, I figure, of three are getting in. There are many other contenders from other studios who will also be considered for the top five. Why it matters is that Netflix is still considered an outsider. Many members are going to chafe at the idea of their dominating the awards, even if they have come to 2021 to kick ass and chew bubble and they are all out of bubble gum.

It’s a weird year. Voters and other sorts are going to be heading in with a certain amount of resentment over all of it, wondering if we are witnessing the end of movie theaters as we know it. Are we? Maybe. Look, if you had told me back in the 1980s when I worked at Main Street Video in Santa Monica that a company called Blockbuster would come along and put our shop out of business, then a company called Netflix would come along and put Blockbuster out of business and there would be scant few videos stores anywhere because movies would be available on streaming it would have boggled my mind.

But things change. This is the year 2021 – imagine 100 years ago. That was 1921. Think of all that has happened in that time. Two world wars, for starters. The advent of Talkies. Television. The internet. So prepare yourselves for the possibility that movies as we know them are on the wane. I hope not. I grew up on them. I love them and I never want to see them die. But one thing the Oscars CAN and should do, and Hollywood in general, is stop making movies for one group of people with one ideology. It creates a bottleneck. We’re at that point now. Broaden the subject matter to include more people – that is how the industry will survive so that it doesn’t become an exclusive, alienating, insular club for only the privileged few.

Lecture over. Now back to the show.

Those who choose the nominees and the winners aren’t critics, nor bloggers, nor pundits, nor publicists. Okay, kind of publicists. But other than that, thousands of those who vote on the awards are people who are actors – and it is their taste, not ours, that we must consider when figuring out the nominees.

Just because critics threw a collective temper tantrum over Hillbilly Elegy does not mean actors are going to ignore the incredible work of Amy Adams in the role. It is rare that an actor goes to that length for a role and actors often pay attention to that. This is why I feel probably more strongly that she will be considered than my colleagues do at the moment: they are listening to critics, not actors. On the other hand, you never know. I personally think if Glenn Close is the frontrunner in supporting, there is a good chance Adams gets in. Ditto if Chadwick Boseman is the frontrunner for Ma Rainey, there is a good chance Viola Davis might also win. These kinds of performances often add to each other’s momentum.

In consulting with the AD Oscar crew, Ryan Adams, Mark Johnson and Clarence Moye, I believe we have come up with a rough sketch of how the Best Actress race might play out. MIGHT. There are several things that could happen to shake it up a bit – like the critics could rally around one random name that none of us is considering that could catapult that person into the race.

However, given what we have to work with and be that as it may, this is what we’re thinking.

The top three:

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Then we start to get into those that seem probable:

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Sophia Loren, A Life Ahead

More of an outside shot at the moment, but you never know:
Nicole Beharie, Miss Juneteenth
Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk
Clare Dunne, Herself
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Yeri Han, Minari

When it comes to the Golden Globes, the leads are divided into Drama and Musical/Comedy – that means there is going to be room for other names to pop up in the race, including:

Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs

UNKNOWN: Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (still waiting to see it)