Best Picture and Calendar Check

Now that the Golden Globes have announced their timeline, let’s take a quick look at how things are shaping up.

Our Oscar race officially begins November 29, as ballots are sent to voting members of the new and improved Golden Globes. It then moves fairly quickly through the end of the year. By December 7th, the Golden Globe ballots will have been turned in.

By December 12, the Golden Globes will announce their nominations. In an ordinary year, they would dominate the month of December, even as critics announce their awards and the Critics Choice also are quite active. In an ordinary year, the Globes would rule until we got to the major guild awards.

For a long time, the awards calendar order went like this:

Golden Globes
Producers Guild
Directors Guild
Screen Actors Guild
The Oscars

Last year, it went like this:
Golden Globes
SAG Awards
Directors Guild
Producers Guild
Oscars

So far, it looks like we have for this year:

Golden Globes — Jan 10, 2023
Directors Guild — Feb 18, 2023
Producers Guild — Feb 25, 2023
SAG Awards — Feb 26, 2023
Oscars — March 12, 2023

So it might not seem like a big deal that the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild would flip, but it makes a Slight difference. We’re still not quite where we once were, post-COVID, so in a sense, it’s all being reinvented anyway.

The Globes took a big hit, and we have no idea how it will go in terms of their profile. If they hire a great host it will have a much bigger profile because lots of people will watch. If they don’t choose a great host and the ratings slightly disappoint, they may have less of an impact.

People will watch them closely to see how they give out their awards. All televised awards shows will be under the watchful panopticon of Hollywood in general. Twitter will watch them to see whether they make mistakes, do or say offensive things and that will be the story coming out of it. The only thing people knew about the Emmys more broadly was that Jimmy Kimmel did something Twitter found insulting.

The news works now because they’re all hooked up to the teet of Twitter. They need for their stories to get high engagement. What plays on Twitter is usually emotional extremes. Love or hate. If someone glorious happens it plays. If something terrible happens, it plays. Jane Campion’s comments at the Critics Choice awards made news because people used that to boost their clout on Twitter.

But – let’s say they do hire a great host, someone really offensive but funny it will suck up all of the oxygen to drive the narrative. But that takes the heat off of the contenders themselves. No one wants a repeat of what happened to Campion, for instance.

By the way, the best way out of this is to let it all hang out simply. Let Twitter flip out and exhaust itself. Build up your inner strength to survive/ignore it. Someday it will be hilarious that people cared that much about what Twitter thought. We’re not there yet. We’re all just trying to learn to live with an arena for public shame that people take full advantage of.

But let’s just say there are no shitstorms that erupt and all goes smoothly. That can set into motion a frontrunner in most of the categories. They will set an awards narrative that usually the Producers Guild knocks off the perch or confirms it. The Producers Guild has ten nominees and so does the Oscars. But the Globes and everything else only has five. Ideally, a movie is strong enough to win both the Globes and the PGA.

Having the DGA go first, however, sets things off kilter a bit. That’s because with the ranked-choice ballot in place, Picture and director has become decoupled. It is what it is.

That means a director can ascend, as Jane Campion did, without the movie necessarily being the favorite of the year. Because the Globes were knocked off course the past few years, it’s harder to see their impact vis a vis Picture and Director. But let’s just do a quickie for fun since 2009. Like my dad would say, “what the hell else you got to do?”

2009
Globes–Avatar Pic+Dir
PGA–The Hurt Locker
DGA–The Hurt Locker
SAG–Inglourious Basterds
Oscar–The Hurt Locker Pic+Dir

2010
Globes–The Social Network Pic+Dir
PGA-The King’s Speech
DGA-The King’s Speech
SAG-The King’s Speech
Oscar-The King’s Speech Pic+Dir

2011
Globes–The Artist (musical/comedy)Pic – Martin Scorsese won Director for Hugo
PGA–The Artist
DGA–The Artist
SAG–The Help
Oscar–The Artist Pic+Dir

2012
Globes–Argo (pic+Dir)
PGA-Argo
DGA-Argo
SAG-Argo
Oscar-Argo (Director–Ang Lee, Life of Pi)

2013
Globes–Gravity Director, 12 Years a Slave Picture
PGA-Gravity+12 Years a Slave
DGA-Gravity
SAG-American Hustle
Oscar-12 Years a Slave (Director–Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity)

2014
Globes-Boyhood Pic + Dir
PGA-Birdman
DGA-Birdman
SAG-Birdman
Oscar-Birdman pic+dir

2015
Globes – The Revenant Pic + Dir
PGA-The Big Short
DGA-The Revenant
SAG-Spotlight
Oscar-Spotlight (Director – Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant)

2016
Globes – La La Land Pic + Dir
PGA – La La Land
DGA – La La Land
SAG – Hidden Figures
Oscar – Moonlight Picture (Director Damien Chazelle, La La Land)

2017
Globes — Shape of Water Director / Three Billboards picture
PGA– Shape of Water
DGA — Shape of Water
SAG – Three Billboards
Oscar — Shape of Water Pic + Dir

2018
Globes — Green Book Picture, Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
PGA–Green Book
DGA–Roma
SAG–Black Panther
Oscar — Green Book (Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma)

2019
Globes — 1917 Pic + Dir
PGA–1917
DGA–1917
SAG–Parasite
Oscar Parasite Pic + Dir

2020
Globes — Nomadland Pic + Dir
PGA-Nomadland
DGA-Nomadland
SAG–Trial of the Chicago 7
Oscar–Nomadland

2021
Globes — The Power of the Dog Pic + Dir
SAG–CODA
DGA–Jane Campion, the Power of the Dog
PGA–CODA
Oscar–CODA (Director Jane Campion, the Power of the Dog)

So in the last 13 years:

9 times the Golden Globes predicted Best Picture OR Best Director
7 times the Golden Globes predicted Best Director
6 times the Golden Globes predicted Best Picture
2 times the Golden Globes predicted the right split between Picture and Director

I bring all of this up because this year we might know early at least one of the winners of Picture or Director at the Globes is going to win an Oscar. MAYBE. We have no idea what kind of year this will be. What kind of narratives will erupt? But so far, there is no reason to think the Globes won’t be a bust and have no impact. It seems like even years like that they have had an impact.

Steven Spielberg has won two Best Director Globes, the same as he’s won for the Oscars and for the same films: Saving Private Ryan and Schindler’s List. I expect he could be a strong contender to pull in a third, though of course it’s too soon to make that call.

Here is your awards calendar.

November, 2022

Tuesday, November 29, 2022
HFPA-Ballots Sent out to Members

December, 2022

Monday, December 5, 2022
DGA-Online voting for Theatrical Feature Film Nominations opens
SAG-Voting begins

December 7
HFPA-Deadline for Nomination Ballot

Monday, December 12, 2022
Oscars–Preliminary voting begins 9 a.m. PT
HFPA–Announcement of nominations for the 80^thAnnual Golden Globe Awards, at 5:00 a.m. PT

Thursday, December 15, 2022
Oscars–Preliminary voting ends 5 p.m. PT

Friday, Dec. 16, 2022
Makeup and Hairstylists Guild voting opens
HFPA—Final ballots sent to all voters

Wednesday, December 21, 2022
Oscars--Oscar Shortlists Announcement

Saturday, December 31, 2023
Oscars–Eligibility period ends

January, 2023

Tuesday, January 3, 2023
HFPA–Deadline for receipt of final ballots by Ernst & Young, at 5:00 p.m. PT

Friday, January 6, 2023
BAFTA Longlist released
Makeup and Hairstylists Guild voting closes

Sunday, January 7, 2023
SAG-Voting closes

Tuesday, January 10, 2023
HFPA–Presentation of the 80^th Annual Golden Globe Awards
DGA-Deadline to vote online for Theatrical Feature Film Nominations

Wednesday, January 11, 2023
DGA-Announce Five Theatrical Feature Film Nominees
DGA-Online voting for Theatrical Feature Film Award opens
SAG-Nominations Announced
Makeup and Hairstylists Guild nominations announced

Thursday, January 12, 2023
PGA-Producers Guild Nominations Announced
Oscars–Nominations voting begins 9 a.m. PT

Sunday, January 15, 2023
Critics Choice–Critics Choice Awards

Wednesday, January 18, 2023
SAG-Final ballots sent

January 16 – January 20, 2023
DGA-Membership Screenings (or Streaming) of Five Nominated Theatrical Feature Films

Monday, January 16, 2023
ACE-Nomination Ballots Sent

Tuesday, January 17, 2023
Oscars–Nominations voting ends 5 p.m. PT

Thursday, January 19, 2023
BAFTA Longlist

Sunday. January 22, 2023
ACE-Ballots due

Monday, January 23th, 2023
Makeup and Hairstylists Guild final voting

Monday, January 23, 2023
PGA: Producers Guild Final Voting

Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Oscars–Nominations Announcement

Thursday, January 26, 2023
ACE-Nominations Announced