There is no point in beating around the bush. The Oscar race is a flatline right now. So much of what we hoped would happen didn’t happen. It’s been a real comedown since last year when Barbenheimer lulled us into complacency thinking: movies are back, baby. I don’t think movies are back. And I’m not sure they will ever be back.
Where we used to all gather under one roof and see movies that gave us memorable lines we all know forever — like “I’ll be back,” like “Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.” Like “Welcome to the party, pal.” But those days are over. What we have now are big small towns. We have Netflix town, Amazon town, Apple town, Hulu town, and various other niche studios like Neon and A24; god bless them for keeping the dream alive.
The Oscar race has never been more insignificant than it is right now. It is insulated in a tight community of publicists and bloggers who winnow down the list to their chosen few. The publicists then spend money to keep the machine turning but the public is not all that interested anymore. The Oscar itself still holds value and that’s why there is any money at all.
I’ve been writing about where the industry is headed for at least ten years now and nothing I’ve seen this year has filled me with any confidence that it’s headed in the right direction. It isn’t. The streaming platforms have endless amounts of entertainment but almost none of it is all that interesting. There are a small handful of films this year that stand out but it’s not exactly a competitive year.
I don’t know how much longer movies in movie theaters will last. It seems we’re headed out of the communal experience of films — Hollywood took a side against half the country and look at them. They’re punishing people like me for caring about that and for trying to bring that half of the country back in. No, they say, keep them out. So how can they tell stories for everybody? They can’t. They can only tell stories for themselves. Unfortunately, they are running out.
Maybe things will liven up with new movies yet to be seen, like Blitz, Gladiator II, Juror #2, Wicked. Who knows. Maybe there will be something coming in the next few months that make it seem as though there is a real race. Maybe.
This Sunday will be our first big hit when Toronto hands out its audience award. I already did my Toronto preview last week, but it’s worth looking again at what films might win.
The Audience Award isn’t always about the best movie. Sometimes it’s about the buzz. Who showed up, how the film played, etc. For instance, when Steven Spielberg showed up, it was such a big deal The Fabelmans ended up winning the Audience Award but then went home empty-handed at the Oscars.
Usually, the film that wins is the one that moves people the most. It isn’t always the one that is the deepest or the most well-made. If people skip out of the theater with their heart light blinkering, that movies has a really good chance to be the one people choose. Voters always vote for that which makes them feel good. They had big love for Spielberg so it felt good to vote for him.
Sean Baker’s Anora makes people feel strongly toward the film’s main character. That translates to love. But it’s also love for Baker himself, a daring and uncompromising filmmaker who has never “sold out” to make some dumb superhero movie and vows never to do so. Whatever drives him to tell stories is a precious gift to protect. He is interested in people who are rejected from society and don’t always behave well. He doesn’t push an agenda. He just tells stories about strange people.
Emilia Perez does seem to be a movie people love as well, but I would guess what drives that movie more than the film itself is the chance to award a film about a transgender character. That seems to give people a feeling of doing something good for society, which can translate to love. That might be a tough one to beat in Toronto.
We also have to factor in Selina Gomez and her huge fan base. Listen to the applause when she takes the stage in the above video. If Gomez fans are there and they’re voting on the Audience Award, how does it lose? One way to boost Oscar ratings would be to nominate Gomez.
Selina Gomez is quite good in Emilia Perez and should be considered for Supporting. The trouble is that there are three actresses vying for a spot. Maybe both Zoe Saldana and Gomez get in. Hard to say. It depends on how competitive the category is.
The other films that played well in Toronto include:
Saturday Night
And Anora:
Over at blogto.com Jason Gorber has listed the films he thinks have the best chance. You can read all of his descriptions by heading over there. But this is the list:
The Life of Chuck (Stephen King was there)
Anora
Emilia Perez
The Wild Robot
Saturday Night
Of this, Gorber writes, hilariously:
TIFF is housed in a building that sits on land his family donated, yet no amount of nepo-baby snark can take away from the fact that this tale of Lorne Michaels and his band of Not Ready for Primetime players is sublime, the birth of SNL so intrinsically tied to Toronto that it would make for a fitting award to celebrate this fact.
The list continues:
The Last Showgirl
Nightbitch
Unstoppable
Babygirl
The Brutalist
The Substance
Ultimately, I think it gets down to these four:
Anora
Saturday Night
Emilia Perez
The Brutalist
Whatever wins, there is a high chance it will win at least one Oscar. There is less of a chance it will win Best Picture, but of course, it can.
For Your Consideration is back with two of the nicest guys on the planet (at least to me) Scott Mantz and Jeff Sneider. They are what I call good people. I am sure Perri Nemiroff is too, though I have not met her. Here are their predictions if you are interested:
Nemiroff has a decent-sized following on YouTube, around 48K.
The Emmy Awards are also happening this weekend. I have yet to really dig into those since my TV section has fled to The Contending—head on over there to read their predictions. I will probably post the winners on Sunday, You can head ov but their site is the better resource for Emmy stuff.
Here are a few tweets I could dig up about the Audience Award.
And with that, here are this week’s predictions, for whatever they’re worth.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Sing Sing
A Real Pain
Emilia Perez
Dune 2
Hard Truths
Saturday Night
Gladiator II (not yet seen)
Alts: Wicked, The Piano Lesson, Nickel Boys, The Substance
Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jaques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Jason Reitman, Saturday Night
Alt. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Alts: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux; Paul Mescal, Gladiator II; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Baby Girl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Alts: Amy Adams, Nightbitch; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux; Julianne Moore, the Room Next Door
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (unless lead?)
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Alts: Yura Borisov, Anora; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Paul Raci, Sing Sing; Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II
Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux (unless lead)
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alts: Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Original Screenplay
The Brutalist
Anora
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Saturday Night
Alt. Emilia Pérez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Nickel Boys
The Piano Lesson
Gladiator II
Joker Folie a Deux
Editing
Anora
Conclave
The Brutalist
Saturday Night
Gladiator II
Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune 2
Conclave
Gladiator II
Saturday Night
Alts: Anora
Production Design
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
Wicked
Alts: Saturday Night, Joker Folie a Deux
Costumes
Wicked
The Brutalist
Maria
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Alts: Conclave, Blitz, Saturday Night
Original Score
Conclave
The Brutalist
Queer
Emilia Perez
Dune 2
Alts: Challengers, Joker Folie a Deux, The Piano Lesson, Inside Out 2
