Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Temperature Check on Best Actor and Best Actress

As we continue through the summer, it’s a good time to review other above-the-line categories before the fall film festival lineups are announced over the coming weeks. Let’s take a look at what the Awards Expert community has to say regarding the two lead acting categories.

Best Actor (screenshot from Awards Expert Community, an app you can download and follow us there)

As one can see, there seems to be a solid top two in this one category. Many believe that Timothée Chalamet is going to deliver the goods in Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, loosely based on the life of Marty Reisman. It’s technically a biopic performance while being its own original entity, according to certain sources, and, considering how well respected Chalamet truly is, he really could go all the way if the film delivers. This is especially true if Best Picture prospects remain intact, which is very plausible.

His number two, according to this community, is that of Jeremy Allen White in Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. Easily a more traditional role compared to Chalamet’s on paper, this, too, has awards-bait written all over it. Though one can argue the music biopic winning Best Actor has been somewhat overstated, the only winner in recent memory being Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, plenty have gotten close, such as Austin Butler for Elvis and Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown. It makes complete sense for one to put Jeremy Allen White in not only the top five, but closer to winning than being snubbed at this current moment.

The other contenders in the top five include Jesse Plemons for Bugonia (which film twitter and the awards community believes will be a major player), George Clooney for Jay Kelly (which Netflix will push significantly through the fall film festivals and possibly be their major push), and, perhaps most interestingly, Michael B. Jordan for Sinners.

I rewatched Sinners last week to see how it would change from my first experience back in May, and suffice to say, it has aged really well. As much as I believe Jordan (and the entire ensemble) give remarkable performances, horror films do have an uphill battle getting acting nominations outside of very rare occurrences (like Demi Moore last year).

Other contenders being considered include Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another, Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine, Brendan Fraser for Rental Family (which many believe will be the discovery of the film festivals this year), and Daniel Day-Lewis for Anemone.

Best Actress (Screenshot from Awards Expert Community)

Since June, this race, according to the community, has been between Renate Reisnve for Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, and Julia Roberts for Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt. The latter has been considered a strong potential winner ever since Trier’s film became one of the “frontrunners” in the Best Picture race, while Roberts has been in the conversation year-round, many believing her role in After the Hunt to have the potential to be something truly special. The new ingenue vs the well-respected veteran is fairly common in the Best Actress race, and if it really comes down to the two of these performances, either has very valid reasons to win the category.

Following the top two, other contenders in the top five include Cynthia Erivo for Jon M. Chu’s Wicked: For Good, Jesse Buckley for Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet, and Jennifer Lawrence for Lynne Ramsey’s Die, My Love.

Other contenders being considered include Emma Stone for Bugonia, Amanda Seyfried for Ann Lee (Mona Fastvold’s film she co-wrote with Brady Corbet), Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Tessa Thompson for Hedda, and Sydney Sweeney for the upcoming Christy Martin Biopic.

Two very competitive categories that will remain competitive for the foreseeable future.

Oscar Predictions

Although there haven’t been many updates in the past week, I’ve decided to implement some changes I’ve been considering for a while. To be consistent with my Best Picture post last week, I decided to switch from Safdie’s Marty Supreme to Ryan Coogler’s Sinners (which I truly believe is the passionate underdog that could go all the way this year), with Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value behind at number 2.

Hikari’s Rental Family is also a film I cannot ignore at this moment, with a Telluride premiere being rumored, and Searchlight’s main backing behind it. A small indie that explodes onto the scene at the Fall Film Festivals still carries some weight even in recent years (Women Talking, American Fiction come to mind), and this seems no different than that. As a result, I had to bump a contender out, and, as of now, I don’t feel as certain about Lanthimos’s Bugonia as others do. It seems unwise to doubt Focus Features, but this doesn’t scream awards-friendly either, and there are still some films without distribution that could be picked up if Lanthimos’s film, and Zhao’s as well, do not live up to expectations.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another might be skipping festivals entirely, and, considering Warner Bros’s backing of Sinners, the latter might be their major push, with PTA’s movie being the project that is too difficult to market to a wider audience.

As such, here are my predictions at the moment, take with a grain of salt as we know very little about what will ultimately occur.

Best Picture

Sinners
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme
Jay Kelly
After the Hunt
Wicked for Good
Ann Lee
One Battle After Another
Rental Family
It Was Just an Accident

Best Director

Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Mona Fastvold, Ann Lee
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Best Actress

Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Best Supporting Actress

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Ayo Edebri, After The Hunt
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

Best Supporting Actor

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Andrew Garfield, After The Hunt
Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Original Screenplay

Sentimental Value
Sinners
Jay Kelly
After the Hunt
Rental Family

Best Adapted Screenplay

One Battle After Another
Bugonia
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Hedda
The Life of Chuck

Best Casting

Sinners
Marty Supreme
Wicked: For Good
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Wake Up Dead Man

Best Cinematography

Ann Lee
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sound of Falling

Best Editing

Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
After the Hunt
One Battle After Another

Best Production Design

Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
Ann Lee
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners

Best Costume Design

Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
Ann Lee
Sinners
Hamnet

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
The Smashing Machine
Sinners
28 Years Later

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash
Superman
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Wicked: For Good

Best Sound

F1
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Wicked: For Good
Bruce Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Score

Sinners
One Battle After Another
Ann Lee
Frankenstein
Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

Wicked: For Good (Cynthia Erivo)
Ann Lee
Relentless (Diane Warren Biopic)
Wicked Song #2 (Ariana Grande)
I Lied To You from Sinners

Best International Feature

Sentimental Value
The Secret Agent
Sound Of Falling
Sirât
It Was Just an Accident (though if it is not submitted, considering the director’s relationship with the country, and no one picks it up, I would go with All That’s Left of You)

Best Animated Feature