2026 Oscar Predictions: Can Anything Catch Sinners?

Michael Patterson has begun the hunt for titles that might play at Telluride. He’s fairly accurate in his predictions every year, which has gotten him in hot water with the Good People of Telluride, who have, at least the last time I checked, denied him press credentials, even though he clearly is press writing about the festival. Either way, here is how he has it coming down now:

These seven films appear locked into Telluride:
Hamnet
Ballad of a Small Player
It Was Just an Accident
Nouvelle Vague
Sentimental Value
The Secret Agent
Tuner

These are film’s from Venice that feel like they might play there and then come over for TFF #52:

La Grazia
Jay Kelly
The Wizard of the Kremlin
House of Dynamite
Bugoina
Orphan
Hand of Dante
Ghost Elephants
Cover-Up

And:

Other films that seem gone from Telluride consideration:

Sirat
Frankenstein
Eleanor the Great

Other films that could still play Telluride:

Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Blue Moon
The Young Mothers’ Home
The History of Sound
The Love That Remains
Left-Handed Girl
Pressure
Die, My Love
The Mastermind
The American Revolution
Bucking Fastard

I made up a quickie chart of how things are shaking out vis-à-vis his guesses. This will change in the month of August as the lineups fill out. But for now, this is how it looks:

Now let’s look back at where all of the Best Picture nominees and winners have come from in the past few years.

2022

Nominees:
Everything Everywhere All At Once (Best Picture, Best Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress, Director, Screenplay) — SXSW film festival
All Quiet on the Western Front (Cinematography, Production Design, Score) — Toronto
Avatar: The Way of Water (Visual Effects) — Wide release
Women Talking (Adapted Screenplay) — Telluride
Top Gun: Maverick (Sound) — Cannes
The Banshees of Inisherin — Venice
Elvis –Cannes
The Fabelmans — Toronto
Tár — Venice
Triangle of Sadness — Cannes
—
The Whale (Best Actor, Makeup) — Venice
Wakanda Forever (Costumes) — wide release

2023

Oppenheimer (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Score) — wide release
Poor Things (Actress, Makeup, Costumes, Production Design) – Venice
American Fiction (Adapted Screenplay) — Toronto
Anatomy of a Fall (Original Screenplay) — Cannes
The Holdovers (Supporting Actress) — Telluride
The Zone of Interest (International Feature) – Cannes
Barbie (Song) – wide release
Killers of the Flower Moon – Cannes
Maestro – Venice
Past Lives – Sundance

—

Godzilla Minus One – (Visual Effects)

2024
Anora (Picture, Actress, Director, Screenplay, Editing) — Cannes
The Brutalist (Cinematography, Score, Actor) — Venice
Conclave (Adapted Screenplay) – Telluride
Dune: Part Two (Sound, Visual Effects) wide release
Emilia Pérez (Supporting Actress, Song) — Cannes
The Substance (Makeup and Hairstyling) — Cannes
Wicked (Production Design, Costumes) wide release
I’m Still Here (International Feature) — Venice
A Complete Unknown – wide release
Nickel Boys — Telluride

A Real Pain (Supporting Actor) — Telluride

There is a slight trend toward more theatrical releases in the lineup, but keep in mind, it wasn’t that long ago when there were no films from film festivals at all in the Best Picture race.

Festivals became more important after the Academy pushed its date back by one month, from late March (or sometimes April) to late February. That wiped out the Weinstein model, also known as the late-breaker model of winning, which involved releasing a film late in December, thereby capturing the hearts and minds of voters. That’s why people mistakenly believe that Hollywood releases its Oscar movies at the end of the year. Some of them still do that, but we haven’t seen a film released that way win Best Picture since the return of Return of the King, which was around the time of the date change.

So why does it matter? To put it in the words of my friend Bob Burns, the Oscars now are “best film from a film festival,” with the sole exception of Oppenheimer. Every Best Picture winner since then has come from a film festival, with very few exceptions:

2005–Crash – Toronto
2006–The Departed — wide release
2007–No Country for Old Men — Cannes
2008–Slumdog Millionaire — Telluride
2009–The Hurt Locker (the year before at) Toronto
2010–The King’s Speech — Telluride
2011–The Artist — Cannes
2012–Argo — Telluride
2013–12 Years a Slave — Telluride
2014–Birdman — Venice
2015–Spotlight — Venice
2016–Moonlight — Telluride
2017–The Shape of Water — Venice
2018–Green Book — Toronto
2019–Parasite — Cannes
2020–Nomadland — Venice
2021–CODA — Sundance
2022–Everything, Everywhere–SXSW
2023–Oppenheimer — wide release
2024–Anora — Cannes

So, if you’ll notice, late breakers do not win. The season moves too quickly, and too many bloggers have already arranged the pieces on the chessboard and more or less worked out the plays. Last year, Zoe Saldana and Kieran Culkin were marked for wins, and that never wavered.

Film festivals launch a process that runs the film through a tastemaking filter to decide whether to accept or reject it. However, publicists can sometimes help rig the results by connecting the right blogger with the right filmmaker or actor, thereby boosting the film’s chances of success. Everyone decides all at once what the nominees should be, with very little wiggle room.

Unfortunately, a film festival’s Oscars means a niche event, one that mostly shuts out the majority of the public, and that means these movies do not stand the test of time. People barely remember them even a year later, if they remember them at all. What the Oscars measure now is less about the best in a given year and more about the best publicity in a given year. They really should an adjunct to the publicity awards as the best in the business are the ones who shape what will be the race.

And then there are the “useful idiots,” the bloggers who are given access and special treatment who then begin to see themselves as “important.” They hold court at screenings and give Q&As. A highly placed blogger can absolutely push a movie into the race. I myself have done just that many times. I’ve advocated for people who were nobodies who were then thrust into the spotlight. I would never claim credit for that publicly, but if you know, you know.

What I’ve learned in all of my years doing this is that you can bring a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink. The Academy voters can be convinced to maybe watch a movie but unless they love the movie or they feel good voting for it, that won’t necessarily influence the wins.

We already know from Cannes that Sentimental Value is lining up as a strong contender. That’s as much as we know. The other thing we know is that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners was a big hit and highly acclaimed. We know he’s overdue for a win because of his history of bringing in both hits (Creed, Black Panther) and indies (Fruitvale Station). Sinners is a wildly creative, wholly original, impressionist masterpiece. It captured the zeitgeist in ways few films have. Does that mean it will win? Well, not exactly, but it has set the bar high.

I mean….

Sinners has a chance to be among the very few “wide release” movies that win, should it win. The odds are on a festival movie winning because that’s how it goes now, but I don’t know. A win for this one says so much more about Hollywood than a festival movie could. Like Oppenheimer, it’s a movie ON FILM, not digital. Like Oppenheimer, it brought people out to the movie theaters. It didn’t do quite the numbers Oppenheimer did but it did not do badly (from Box Office Mojo):

The counterargument for Sinners winning is that it is a very American-centric movie, and the Academy has become increasingly international in recent years. And that is a good argument, but man, would that suck if that was the reason a movie like Sinners couldn’t win Best Picture?

History tells us that a movie seen in the next few months will likely decide the Best Picture winner, and that’s possible. Whatever it is, it will have to connect with the singular group of insulated bubble dwellers who decide these things now, rather than the public, who should at least be factored into the equation.

Last year, around this same time, before the major film festivals were held, here were my predictions:

Best Picture
Conclave
A Complete Unknown
~~Joker: Folie à Deux~~
~~SNL 1975~~
~~Gladiator II~~
Anora
Emilia Perez
The Nickel Boys
Dune Part II
~~Sing Sing~~
~~Alt. Blitz~~

The maybes: ~~Inside Out 2, Here, Eden~~, Wicked Part 1, ~~Queer, A Real Pain~~

Director
~~Edward Berger, Conclave~~
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
~~Todd Phillips, Joker Folie a Deux~~
Sean Baker, Anora
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Alts ~~Jason Reitman SNL 1975, Luca Guadagnino, Queer, RaMelle Ross, The Nickel Boys, Ridley Scott, Gladiator II, Steve McQueen, Blitz~~

Actress
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
~~Amy Adams, Night Bitch~~
Mikey Madison, Anora
~~Saoirse Ronan, Blitz~~
~~June Squibb, Thelma~~

~~Alts Ana DeArmas, Eden.~~

Actor
Coleman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
~~Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux~~
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
~~Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys~~

Supporting Actress
~~Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux (unless lead)~~
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
~~Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys~~
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
~~Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown~~

Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
~~Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing~~
~~Denzel Washington, Gladiator II~~
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
~~Paul Raci, Sing Sing~~

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
~~SNL 1975~~
Nickel Boys
A Complete Unknown
~~Inside Out 2~~

Original Screenplay
Anora
~~Blitz~~
~~Hard Truths~~
~~Emilia Perez~~
A Real Pain

So, it’s bad but it’s not as bad as it was, particularly in Best Picture. Additionally, all the winners in these categories were already present. That’s kind of amazing. The year before, the same thing was true — all of the ultimate winners in the major categories were on my list. I wasn’t really tracking them the same way the year before so it’s harder to tell.

Anyway, my predictions haven’t changed from last week – there haven’t been any major movements in the race yet, so I’ll keep it status quo.

Picture: