Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Film Festivals and High Expectations

It’s been a pretty hectic week to say the very least. One could make the argument, even compared to other Venice/Telluride Oscar seasons that this one has been incredibly chaotic, bordering on feeling like a rollercoaster that frustratingly, doesn’t actually offer much answers, opens up new questions, and most of all, leaves individuals in the same place that the person was at the start of the segment, no movement, just the illusion of one so to speak.

One could make the argument that it is the pundits, and those who not only follow the Oscar race, but also those who try to theorize (or, in the more extreme case, conjure up) what will be a major candidate and what won’t be, where these problems multiply. The Awards season is one that has, ever since its conception, been more about the best, it’s about what is “correct” what “matters” and what “makes sense” more so than what is considered the best, though in the minds of voters, all of these themes cross, and the best is what “makes sense” or what “matters” or ultimately “correct.”

This was never more evident than it was in the preconceived narrative for Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, looked at as a early frontrunner by SOME awards pundits, with the main narrative being “it’s Noah Baumbach’s time” and labeled as “an ode to the cinematic medium” assisted by what was rumored to be career best performances by George Clooney and Adam Sandler. However, the reviews from the Venice critics were the very definition of ambivalent, and many were left scrambling for what would be “the frontrunner” at this given moment. Add to that, Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt got derailed by the Venice critics, and many who were still wondering if it was the filmmakers year, or Roberts’s comeback, were left wondering what could be the “film of the festival”

Then came the Telluride Film Festival on August 29, 2025, where the opening night featured two of the most anticipated projects, finally debuting their world premieres. Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet and Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, two movies that represent opposite sides of the cinematic medium, one an artistic exploration of fiction, the other a personal, real interpretation of a famous individual’s life, and the Best Picture race ignited once more. What these two filmmakers did, Zhao in crafting something entirely personal and empathetic while still exploring these individuals of the distant past in a way that feels appropriate, and Cooper in showing a different side to someone as famous as Bruce Springsteen, are some of the most successful ways in which Oscar success comes alive.

The Telluride Film Festival is known for being the festival where films “explode” into the race, ones many are not expecting, surprise audiences in ways not imagined, where the personal connection one has to these films is part of why they stick with the viewer after the experience is over. The two biggest films of the fest were assisted by these aspects: Zhao’s personal meditative session with the viewer before the movie started, and Springsteen’s input on his own movie. These are what people care about in these mountains, and why, as of today, these two are firmly in the Best Picture lineup.

As for me, I, too, am guilty of giving into the hive mind and changing predictions. As evidenced by this picture below, I have altered my predictions on Awards Expert every day I was at Telluride, and, probably the biggest issue of all, is changing them back to where they were originally, signifying no change, and no confidence in one’s own convictions.

It’s a trap many pundits and awards followers fall into, but can you blame us? When people are shouting constantly about a film’s flaws, one has the urge to jump into the center and change one’s perceptions before seeing the movie. When the low (or high) expectations are set, there’s no changing them, and the only way out is for the film to surprise you, or prove the other critics wrong regarding the consensus.

What the first week of Venice and Telluride Reinforced or Revealed

The two films that made them jump from Venice to Telluride were, as mentioned before, Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, but also Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia, which has been quite the puzzle recently. Unlike Baumbach’s film, which underperformed at Venice and was praised sufficiently at Telluride, Bugonia has been consistently received as mid-tier Lanthimos, nothing notable. Emma Stone and the Adapted Screenplay have been praised, but the one question remains: Is it enough to get into Best Picture? Focus Features clearly is having a banner year between Lanthimos’s film and Zhao’s, but it’s evident that the latter is the one in which the critical acclaim (a 95 on Metacritic) lies, and the Oscar success will more likely follow suit with that one.

Telluride’s top world premieres, or the ones most likely to go the distance to a best picture nomination, would undoubtedly be Zhao’s Hamnet and Cooper’s Deliver Me From Nowhere. The former in particular has shot up to a top-five position in the eyes of the Awards Expert community, found down below.

It was probably naïve of me to never include Deliver Me From Nowhere in my BP 10, given its subject matter and genre (“music biopics,” etc), and no doubt, the more traditionally minded academy voters will dig into it, so into the top 10 it goes.

The two films from Cannes that I saw in Telluride, Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, and Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident, earned raves, signifying passion for the filmmakers and the ever-growing connection to international features. It’s early, but pencil both of these in for Best Picture and Best Director nominations, as these are stealing the show everywhere they go.

The Biggest questions from the first week of Venice and Telluride

The elephant in the room, as many are analyzing the awards race, is all about Netflix, Netflix, Netflix.

First it was Jay Kelly, and then the attention turned to Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein, which opened to solid reviews, but the genre bias and the lack of passionate “I need to advocate for this film” reactions loom over the desire to think it will go the distance into a spot with the AMPAS ten. Then it was Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite, which is premiering as we speak. Perhaps most surprisingly, the idea that maybe, after all this noise, Baumbach’s film really will go the distance and get nominated due to its star power, and the people who love it, as evidenced by my Telluride screening, really resonates with what it is saying about one’s legacy. The old guard of the Academy still exists.

The Venice premieres of Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine, Park Chan-Wook’s No Other Choice, and perhaps most notably, Mona Fastvold’s The Testament of Ann Lee, point to enthusiastic responses or, at the very least, promise for awards down the road. Though undoubtedly the amount of polarizing reviews for Fastvold’s film makes me less confident to put it into best picture, I am hesitating to take it out, and sticking with my convictions.

How did the Best Picture Race change?

The fact of the matter is that, if anything, Venice and Telluride reinforced what many were thinking. This really might be Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value going the distance in a “cool, hip choice” vs a more “traditional, Oscar-friendly choice,” though both films are far more significant than these regressive, stereotypical terms would allude to them as.

Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet is likely right behind them at #3, the artsy, critics’ movie that may or may not struggle to resonate as strongly with audiences compared to the luminous critical consensus.

Will that remain the top three for the remainder of the season? Nobody knows anything, but it’s as good an answer as any.

Venice’s top prizes and Michael Patterson’s Telluride Poll will hopefully clear up some of these questions a bit more regarding where “the buzz is” before TIFF.

Oscar Predictions for the week of September 1^st

Not so many notable changes, at least until we get more of the “vibes” from what each festival entails, but if I had to point out some of my personal changes out they would be

• One Battle After Another out for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
• Jafar Panahi in for Best Director over Mona Fastvold
• Julia Roberts out for Emma Stone
• Frankenstein out of adapted screenplay for Bugonia, though the latter’s awards prospects continue to puzzle me
• Laura Dern out of supporting actress for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
• It Was Just An Accident out of the original screenplay for Marty Supreme, though the director and original screenplay could BOTH happen
• Jay Kelly and The Testament of Ann Lee were out of a number of categories, but not Best Picture

Here are the predictions currently

Best Picture

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
7. Rental Family
8. Jay Kelly
9. It Was Just An Accident
10. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
4. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
3. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Rental Family
4. Marty Supreme
5. Jay Kelly

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Hamnet
2. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
3. Bugonia
4. One Battle After Another
5. No Other Choice

Best Casting

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Jay Kelly
5. Rental Family

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. No Other Choice
3. Sirât
4. The Secret Agent
5. It Was Just An Accident If it isn’t submitted, Nouvelle Vague

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Cutting Through Rocks
3. Seeds
4. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
5. The Cycle of Love (was the talk of Telluride)

Best Animated Feature

1. Scarlet
2. Zootopia 2
3. Kpop Demon Hunters
4. Arco
5. A Magnificent Life

Best Cinematography

1. The Testament of Ann Lee
2. Sinners
3. Frankenstein
4. Marty Supreme
5. Hamnet

Best Editing

1. Marty Supreme
2. Sinners
3. Sentimental Value
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Production Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Sinners
5. Hamnet

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Sinners
5. 28 Years Later

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
5. The Fantastic 4: First Steps

Best Sound

1. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. F1
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Sinners
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Score

1. Sinners
2. Frankenstein
3. Jay Kelly
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (if ineligible, Hamnet, if that too is ineligible, Bugonia)

Best Song

1. Cynthia Erivo Song from Wicked: For Good
2. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
3. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
4. I Lied to You from Sinners
5. Ariana Grande song from Wicked: For Good

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