Nextgen Oscarwatcher – Best Picture: The Netflix Dilemma and the Venice Conundrum 

Another crazy week has passed in the awards race, one full of new premieres, films screening in other areas consisting of other critics, and just attempting to get a more universal consensus or read on these circumstances is somehow becoming harder rather than easier. Despite Telluride painting a solid picture with Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet defining the weekend (with a speck of Cooper’s Springsteen also defining some of the festival discourse), the Venice film festival, and at the moment, TIFF, continue to raise more questions than answers regarding what exactly is occurring. It might take another few days or so, perhaps when the TIFF audience award winner is revealed, to have a firmer grasp on what is actually shaping up to be the case for this awards season. 

The Netflix Dilemma

If there was to be one factor as to why this is becoming a hard best picture race to nail down, it would undoubtedly be the uncertainty regarding the elephant in the room, specifically that of streamer Netflix, and how their unconventional antics (putting campaign money first as opposed to guaranteed presence in cinemas worldwide) will factor into the Oscar race. 

Suffice to say, Netflix and the film community have been at loggerheads with one another for well over a decade at this point. Every attempt from the streamer to somehow make airwaves in the film industry without actually doing the bare minimum of what moviegoers want them to take part in (actually releasing their projects in theaters worldwide) is what makes their films so difficult to root for in the awards race. Even in the covid years, when their distribution was the easiest way in which people could view and take in what was being offered, the academy rejected their efforts in Best Picture (in 2022 losing to another streamer no less), showing that it isn’t just the streaming component voters have a problem with, but the methods and films themselves on top of that. 

These issues are already present in their 2025 slate, with films like Baumbach’s Jay Kelly marketed almost entirely as an awards contender, begging to sweep the season (evidenced by the amount of pundits who put it at #1 on their lists), and Bigelow’s House of Dynamite which opened to glowing reviews out of Venice due to its “important, relevant subject matter” from an auteur who hasn’t been in the spotlight for quite some time.

These are very traditional Oscar narratives and movies on paper, even without mentioning the quality of the work, one can’t help but sigh at just how “clawing” these movies, and all of Netflix’s Oscar contenders, feel when it comes to wanting awards. Whether true or not, that is the perception in the industry.

Evidenced by the Awards Expert app, the people who actually care about the Oscars are perfectly fine with the idea of the streamer missing out on the Best Picture ten, with many hyping up Neon getting three Best pictures “known as Threon” into the ten, highlighting the international slant of the Academy, with Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value being firmly in the five and Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident right behind it, and Park Chan-Wook’s No Other Choice right outside the ten. 

It’s a fitting narrative, no? Despite all the advantages streamers have in the film industry, the aspects they lack are the ones that matter the most, such as sustainability in the eyes of viewers and actual cinematic progression. Films like Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet are not traditional Oscar movies despite the latter’s prospects on paper, but it is these swings and risks that the filmmakers take that resonate with voters, not familiarity or “Oscar bait” tactics that have defined the trades and the Oscar season over the past decade. 

For what Netflix will choose to put as their “pony” is unclear at this moment, and remember that the biggest Oscar contender that was pushed by the streamer (Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez) wasn’t even produced by them, rather it was acquired by Cannes, signifying how even their awards titles can falter and be considered “This Had Oscar Buzz” projects.

The Venice Conundrum 

Despite a Venice slate that was uneven at best, and underwhelming for some at worst, many still expected films like Park Chan-Wook’s No Other Choice and Mona Fastvold’s The Testament of Ann Lee to claim something (either for the former’s direction or the latter’s main performance), and somehow make the Oscar race more stable. Turns out, this was the furthest thing from the truth, and the winners found here represented a jury that was bold in their decision making, but for many, questionable in their taste of quality. 

The biggest takeaway from the fest, and what ultimately defined it, was the Israel-Palestine conflict. A heated topic with many opposing sides, one film in Kaouther Ben Hania’s The Voice of Hind Rajab, stood out, with an enthusiastic response found here being the defining film of the festival, even if it did not prevail in the top prize, many believed it was favored to win. 

The response to The Voice of Hind Rajab represents something that is going to be difficult to ignore, this season, with an IMDB score hovering above a 9.0 with over a thousand reviews in, and a solid letterboxd curve, the passion for what Hania’s film discusses, the loss of life in a conflict that has caused so much division worldwide, has at the moment, become a uniting moment at the few fests it has screens, though the controversy regarding Alexander Payne’s decision making caused a great deal of conversation. 

Is this a dark horse in Best Picture?

It seems almost way too early, and in very divisive taste, to talk about the Oscars at this moment when this conflict is still front and center in everyone’s mind. The Israel-Palestine conflict is different from Russia-Ukraine in the film industry, with far more differing views on the former compared to the latter, though the victory in the documentary feature for No Other Land shows how passion for films covering this subject can prevail despite the discourse that is brought up due to the depiction. 

With Plan B behind it (executive producers Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, and newly added Brad Pitt and Jonathan Glazer), this could, in theory, make it into a ten with the right amount of passion. With no distributor yet, and no American release date, it doesn’t seem wise to go all in on it, but sometimes, you just have to take risks even if they might not work out in a Best Picture race (no guts no glory, amirite?) 

Oscar Predictions for Week of September 8^th

Akin to last week, it’s been pretty rough when it comes to certainty, and a lot has changed, due to criticisms becoming more solid of certain aspects of films, and other projects being seen by more people.

Here are some of the changes

• Taking Jay Kelly and Testament of Ann Lee out of Best Picture, the former due to the Netflix Dilemma and the latter due to its consistent division with audiences (I guess some year long predictions aren’t meant to come true, an error made by yours truly), replaced by Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another (which is screening this week), and, as a no guts no glory, Hania’s The Voice of Hind Rajab, which will be screening for TIFF this week.
• Mari Yamamoto is out, and tentatively, I have put in Amy Madigan for Weapons, though Grande has defaulted to #1 in supporting actress and I await reactions to OBAA to see if any of the supporting actresses stick out in PTA’s next film, which currently, is a big wild card (either a big cinematic achievement, or an admirable swing and a potential miss from him)
• Deliver Me From Nowhere is replaced in the adapted screenplay with Wake Up Dead Man due to the latter’s glowing responses from TIFF, and the lack of passion in the screenplay of the former.
• I have taken out both Jay Kelly and Marty Supreme in the original screenplay, replacing the two with It Was Just An Accident and A House of Dynamite, as the latter two have been praised significantly, specifically for their screenplays, but this category remains a bloodbath. 
• The Voice of Hind Rajab is in an international feature over Nouvelle Vogue
• KPop Demon Hunters is now the default frontrunner in animated feature, and might just go all the way on passion alone.

I have also decided to include alts on the above-the-line predictions and might expand in the coming weeks. 

Best Picture

1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. Wicked: For Good
6. It Was Just An Accident
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
8. Rental Family
9. One Battle After Another
10. The Voice of Hind Rajab

Alts: The Netflix Quartet (Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, House of Dynamite, Wake Up Dead Man), No Other Choice, The Testament of Ann Lee, Bugonia, and Avatar: Fire and Ash)

Best Director

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Alt: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alt: Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
4. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Alts: Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine, Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons

Alt: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another, Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
3. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Alt: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Rental Family
4. It Was Just An Accident
5. A House of Dynamite

Alts: Marty Supreme, Jay Kelly

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Hamnet
2. One Battle After Another
3. Bugonia
4. Wake Up Dead Man
5. No Other Choice

Alt: Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Casting

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Jay Kelly
5. Wake Up Dead Man

Alt: One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Voice of Hind Rajab
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. It Was Just An Accident (if it isn’t submitted, than Sirât)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Cutting Through Rocks
3. Seeds
4. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
5. The Cycle of Love 

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. A Magnificent Life
5. Scarlet

Best Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. Frankenstein
3. The Testament of Ann Lee
4. Marty Supreme
5. Hamnet

Best Editing

1. Marty Supreme
2. Sinners
3. Sentimental Value
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5. One Battle After Another

Best Production Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Sinners
5. Hamnet

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. 28 Years Later
5. Wolf Man

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
5. F1

Best Sound

1. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
2. F1
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Sinners
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Score

1. Sinners
2. Frankenstein
3. Jay Kelly
4. Marty Supreme
5. Hamnet

Best Song

1. Cynthia Erivo Song from Wicked: For Good
2. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
3. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
4. I Lied to You from Sinners
5. Ariana Grande Song from Wicked: For Good

Hopefully, the next few weeks will solidify most of the categories, or at least a ballpark of what to expect. Remember, nobody knows anything.

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