DGA Preview

On Monday, the Directors Guild, probably the most important guild for determining the Best picture winner, will announce their nominees. Many of you have already entered our predictions contest and it’s true that it feels like there are a few names floating around that seem to have risen to the top.

For most of the 83 years of Oscar history, year after year has backed up the theory that the director is the star of the Best Picture race. Splits happen when the public happens to like one movie over the directors’ choice, and generally, the directors can tend to be more in line with the critics. This isn’t always the case – Jim Cameron won the DGA for Titanic, even though LA Confidential won most of the critics awards. But winning the DGA is one of the most reliable indicators that your film is about to win Best Picture. Is it 100%? Of course it can’t be, nothing really is where the fickle choices of humans are concerned. But I don’t think you can lose if you put your money on the DGA.

If the Gurus of Gold (well, many of them anyway) are to be believed, The King’s Speech is the film that will win Best Picture even if David Fincher manages to win Best Director. Obviously if Tom Hooper wins the DGA, it’s a done deal for The King’s Speech, or David O. Russell for The Fighter. If Darren Aronofsky won the DGA, that is the only way you’d be looking at a likely split, in my opinion. Aronofsky could win Director and The Social Network could win Picture, or The King’s Speech come to that.

The pundits have talking of a split, it should be said, going back to The Departed (most were predicting Brokeback Mountain when Crash shocked most everyone to win). Slumdog Millionaire was the only film I’ve seen since Brokeback where the pundits were in agreement about the inevitability of a Picture/Director match-up. But before Brokeback, there were plenty of sure things. Chicago split the vote when Roman Polanski won Best Director. Pundits like Dave Karger, Anne Thompson and Kris Tapley seem to be counting on The King’s Speech being the Shakespeare in Love to The Social Network’s Private Ryan, or Chicago to The Pianist, or Crash to Brokeback.

Splits happen when voters like the movie but either don’t know or don’t regard the director with as much importance, even when that director is Ridley Scott. That is why they are thinking The King’s Speech (in addition to the Academy screenings that had people cheering at the end).

It’s a strange and mostly rare thing, when the movie is thought of with higher regard than the director. The majority of the time with Oscar, director matches picture because the Best Picture is often the credit of the Best Director. There have to be two films of equal popularity in the race. If there are more than two, you are probably not looking at a split. For instance, True Grit’s popularity hurts The King’s Speech and vice-versa. The Fighter’s popularity hurts them both. The Social Network likely has a base that continues to keep it in good stead.

But we still don’t know which direction the wind will blow. Things that can shift the race would include The King’s Speech or The Fighter or True Grit winning the PGA. Anybody but David Fincher winning the DGA, because right now, a perfect storm is brewing for The Social Network, with writing, acting and directing all being celebrated equally, so far anyway. But the pundits would tell you that the critics aren’t the guild voters — nor are they the Academy voters.

And so it goes.

So, let’s quickly look at the standings of our Best Directors currently and how they stack up with history.

1. David Fincher, The Social Network
Wins so far:
Boston Film Critics
National Board of Review
Vancouver Film Critics
Washington DC Area Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics
Southeastern Film Critics
San Francisco
Toronto
Vegas
Chicago
Dallas
Oklahoma
Online Film Critics
Nominations:
Golden Globe
Critics Choice

2. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Wins so far:
Central Ohio
Indiana
Phoenix
Utah
Kansas City
Nominations:
Golden Globes
Critics Choice

3. Darren Aronofsky
Wins so far:
Wins:
San Diego
San Francisco
Austin
Nominations:
Golden Globes
Critics Choice

4. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Nominations:
Golden Globe
Critics Choice

5. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Nominations:
Critics Choice

6. David O. Russell, The Fighter
Nominations:
Golden Globes

7. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Nominations
Critics Choice

No other directors of note have any major outstanding nominations or wins.

Now, let’s look back at the past directors and what they had won up to this point.

2009 – Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Director wins up to now:
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Kansas City Film Critics
Las Vegas Film Critics
Los Angeles Film Critics
New York Film Critics Circle
Online Film Critics
San Francisco Film Critics
SEFCA
Toronto
WAFCA

2008 – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director wins up to now:
Central Ohio
Chicago
Dallas Fort-Worth
Florida
Los Angeles Film Critics
San Diego Film Critics

2007 – Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Best Director wins up to now:
Central Ohio Film Critics
Chicago Film Critics
Dallas Fort-Worth
Florida Film Critics
Las Vegas Film Critics
New York Film Critics Circle
Los Angeles Film Critics Circle
Online Film Critics
Phoenix
San Francisco
SEFCA
Toronto
Vancouver

2006- Martin Scorsese – The Departed
Best Director wins up to now:
Boston
Chicago
Dallas Fort-Worth
Florida
National Board of Review
New York Film Critics
Online Film Critics
Phoenix
SEFCA
Washington DC Area

2005-SPLIT:
Best Director wins up to now:
Paul Haggis, Crash- Picture
Austin Film Critics
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain – Director
Boston Film Critics
Critics Choice
Dallas Fort-Worth
Florida
Las Vegas
National Board of Review
San Francisco
SEFCA
Vancouver

All things considered, I’m going to make a rough prediction — here is how I think the DGA will go:

David Fincher, The Social Network
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit

The wiggle room for me is True Grit, which could be replaced by David O. Russell for The Fighter.¬† I feel like the three locks are Fincher, Aronofsky and Nolan, with two others. There is a chance that, by some miracle, either Lisa Cholodenko or Debra Granik will make the cut – but, though I hate to say this, they might split their own vote because they’re both female directors.

Charts

DGA | Oscar

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

For the win only

+also won Best Picture

(best picture that didn’t match director)