With No DGA, How Might Best Director Go?

A major crutch has been pulled out from under Oscar voters this year and that’s their reliance on the DGA and the PGA. For now we’ll focus on how the DGA’s date change could affect the Best Director nominations, expanding on a Twitter conversation I had with Ashley Reynolds regarding Paul Thomas Anderson. The way I see it, the Weinstein Co. will get one of their directors in but they’ll have to make a choice, Sophie. Paul Thomas Anderson vs. Quentin Tarantino vs. David O. Russell.

As it stands right now, Russell has the momentum. But since we won’t see if the DGA chooses him first, we have to rely on the Academy doing that on their own. If you’ve been following the Oscar race for a while you know that there is usually one or two non-matches from DGA to Academy. That’s because the Academy’s directing branch is around 400 where the DGA membership is around 9,000. So while the Oscars might represent a select poll of first-class directors, if you multiply that sampling by a factor of 20 you’re likely to see a much broader range of taste. With that in mind, we can expect the DGA to choose titles with more popular appeal and Russell would have a better shot. PTA has a better shot with the smaller sampling, I figure.

To my mind there are two locks right now: Ben Affleck for Argo and Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. I expect the next two in line will be Tom Hooper for Les Miserables and Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty. But I say this sight unseen. It’s just a hunch and it’s based on their position in the industry — both have won recently, thus, more attention will paid to them. That leaves the Weinstein slot open. There, I figure, is your cliffhanger. Of course, Hooper or Bigelow could fail to make the cut. Another director entirely could take one or both their spots — like Benh Zeitlin or Michael Haneke. Usually when the Academy splits from the DGA they pick a more obscure choice over a more popular one. But let’s look at how it could go and then look at the times when the Academy has gone a different way.

In the last ten years, when did the DGA pick a director that the Academy didn’t?

2011: David Fincher, Dragon Tattoo –> Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
2010: Christopher Nolan, Inception –> Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
2009: no variation
2008: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight –> Stephen Daldry, The Reader
2007: Sean Penn, Into the Wild –> Jason Reitman, Juno
2006: Bill Condon, Dreamgirls –>Paul Greengrass, United 93*
2005: no variation
2004: Marc Forster, Finding Neverland —> Mike Leigh, Vera Drake*
2003: Gary Ross, Seabiscuit –>Fernando Merielles, City of God*
2002: Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings Two Towers –>Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her*

4 of the past 10 times when the Academy’s directors branch picked a director that the DGA did not, the variant Academy film did not go on to be nominated for Best Picture but the DGA’s did.

3 of the 10 times when the directors branch picked a director that the DGA did not, the variant Academy film went on to be nominated for Best Picture.

2 of the 10 times matched 5/5 with corresponding Best Picture nominations.

But it’s also important to note that only once since the new rules too effect has the movie the DGA chose not gone on to get either director or picture nomination at the Oscars and that was Fincher for Dragon Tattoo — that it was supplanted by Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and War Horse (neither of which earned directors nominations from either group) tells you a lot about how and why the Academy picks some films. But lingering guilt and perhaps frustration contributed to Dragon Tattoo winning the editing Oscar, making it the first film since 1968 to win editing without a corresponding Best Picture nomination*. That shows support for Fincher’s work and respect for his team, even if his film didn’t get enough number ones for Best Pic.

*[Forgot about The Bourne Ultimatum and Black Hawk Down both won editing Oscars without a BP nomination . Thanks Linus!]

Aside from that exception, over the past 3 years — since 2009 when the Academy grew the field of BP nominees to ten to establish the current system — any director the DGA picks usually goes on to see his or her film at least get a Best Picture nomination. In other words, prior to 2007, the variant directors the Academy opted to nominate didn’t have a corresponding Best Picture nomination, but now, with the expanded list, it’s very likely they would have.

But let’s look at a chart that weaves the Golden Globes, DGA and Oscar together.

+ won
GG-Golden Globes
DGA-Directors Guild

2011