Predictions Friday: The Big Short Lands, Steve Carell Joins Best Actor Race

UPDATE: Steve Carell not going into supporting, but lead

Best Actor

Update: Now that Steve Carell is entering the lead actor race that complicates things. Were he in supporting, he might actually win. But in Best Actor he goes up against the toughest category in the race. Right now, Best Actor is looking something like this:

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Michael Caine, Youth
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Matt Damon, the Martian
Steve Carell, the Big Short

Coming up: Will Smith, Concussion

Will Steve Carell bump one of the top five when there are already actors trying to break in? It’s hard to say. I have to see the film first but it’s definitely something to think about.

Best Picture

Room, Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, Suffragette, Brooklyn, and Joy were to be among the films that turned this Oscar season into a “female driven Best Picture race.” The truth is, it will be anything but. I hope you will all pay very close attention as you watch those films shrink back while films about men take their place. There is no sinister reason behind this except that the majority of voters are male. They like movies they can swim in. They like movies where they are the central figure. You’d think women would prefer films about women but they mostly fall in line with the male thinking too – just look at how the Alliance of Female Journalists votes every year. Their picks are no different than picks from other major groups. Either films about men are just plain better than films about women, or the one singular narrative has been internalized by both sides so as not to feel left out of the tribal consensus (please do not rob me of access to dick). Either way, there was a screening of The Big Short last night at the DGA and early word is that it’s going to be a “player.” That means we have to try to squeeze it in somehow in the Best Picture race predictions.

Let’s look at how we here at AwardsDaily see Best Picture – films that have been seen:

1. The Martian – to some it doesn’t seem “serious” enough, but what it will have in its favor is that it’s a pleasurable, across the board likable film that leaves people feeling satisfied. More than that, they leave feeling good about the world and their place in it. This version of our future is hopeful. Mankind has not been destroyed. Life on earth is still being protected and preserved by we non-self-centered, non-barbaric humans and we’ve figured out climate change because look, we’re still using fuel to take us to Mars. It’s a brilliant comeback for Ridley Scott, a great central performance by Matt Damon and the most diverse cast you’ll find in any film this year. Branch by branch it has it all covered, from Best Picture on down to Visual Effects.
2. Spotlight – this is another film that makes people feel good about humanity because we’re still fighting the good fight for truth, justice and freedom. Unlike its opposing twin, Truth, Spotlight does not show how our news media has been co-opted by big corporations. These are ethical journalists protecting society from molesting priests. It’s a great movie, though its nominations will be centered on the major categories like Picture, Supporting Actor, Director, Screenplay, possibly Editing, possibly Score. It’s more of a 5 nominations movie than a 11 nominations movie.
3. Steve Jobs – writing wizardry, great acting, a vibrant, timely subject – this is still the kind of filmmaking the industry and Hollywood prefers. It’s Birdman in the tech world and without the sympathetic protagonist. It doesn’t mirror back Hollywood but it mirrors back success and power at the high cost of avoiding real relationships. It’s high on style and one of the few films (like The Martian) that will be quote-worthy. It, too, is a more of a 5 nominations movie.
4. Bridge of Spies – Spielberg’s 9-11 nominee is another film about hope in a way. It is about confronting our worst instincts in the post-9/11 world. Tom Hanks is the good guy, fighting Oskar Schindler style to preserve human decency at a time when there was none. It’s beautifully made, a celebration of everything Hollywood studio films really do well – excellence in crafts across the board.
5. Brooklyn – so far, the one film starring a female that actually might go all the way (along with Joy, maybe Room).  This sumptuous, enriching story offers a chance to look at what America once was: the land of opportunity where anyone could come here and redefine themselves. It’s strong on character, and a celebration of women supporting women. It’s swoony and romantic, along the lines of Sense and Sensibility. It should see around 8-10 nominations.
6. Room – the Toronto audience winner has gone on to a Best Picture nomination 6 out of 7 of the last 7 years. I would not bet against it. it is another film with a female that might land in the race, along with Joy and Brooklyn. Three seems too much to hope for so if you think Joy gets in you might have to consider dropping Room or Brooklyn to make way for other movies coming up next.
7. The Big Short – I haven’t seen it. I’m adding it here because from what I’ve heard it’s going to be one of the films considered for Best Picture, maybe even not this far down the list.

That’s half the story. There is another story waiting to be told of Joy and The Revenant, of The Hateful Eight and Concussion. Of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Remember, you are still looking for the FIVE films most voters will put down on their nomination ballots between Christmas and New Year’s, which is all the time they’ll have. If they didn’t watch it, or didn’t want to watch it, forget it.  Therefore, Best Picture could look something like this:

The Martian
The Revenant
Joy
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Room
The Hateful Eight or The Big Short
Here’s hoping: Beasts of No Nation

That could be how this thing plays out. Films that hover on the fringe like The Danish Girl, Suffragette, Love & Mercy, Concussion – who knows where they’ll land. This year’s Best Picture race is far from finished and probably only six out of the named films above will get in.

Here’s the thing though. If push comes to shove the films about women will be the ones that get dumped. Maybe Joy will prevail, maybe Brooklyn, maybe Room but probably not all three.

Best Actress

Jennifer Lawrence could be winning her second Best Actress Oscar, rare for someone so young, if Joy rises to the top.  Right now, her main competition seems to be Brie Larson for Room. Larson has earned raves for Room, starting way back in Telluride. The other actresses in line for a nod, possibly a win would be Saoirse Ronan, who carries Brooklyn. Carey Mulligan who also carries Suffragette. Lily Tomlin who carries Grandma. For a time it seemed like Cate Blanchett would be a slam dunk for Truth – and that might still happen. She will compete against herself in Carol, which might mean she even misses a nomination entirely as votes get split between her two performances.

It’s hard not see this as a race between the seen Brie Larson, a first time nominee in a film that won the Toronto International Film Fest Audience Award and the unseen Jennifer Lawrence, a two time Best Actress, and a Supporting Actress nominee. Three Oscar nominations and one win before the age of 25. Has there ever been any actress who accomplished as much in such a short time? If Jennifer Lawrence does win, she will be the youngest of the 12 who’ve won two Best Actress awards.

Lawrence will have to beat every one of her other performances, including her win for Silver Linings Playbook to take this home, which shouldn’t be too hard, especially if this performance is better.

If Best Actress is down to these five:

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette or Cate Blanchett for Carol or Truth

That would make, ironically enough, Lily Tomlin the one who is not like the others. Tomlin would be the older vet among a handful of bright young up and comers. Lawrence comes in with major star power. Nothing has slowed her curve. She’s starred in two franchise films while also managing to keep working in smaller independent dramas. She is beautiful the way Hollywood needs her to be – tall, blonde, sexy while not intimidating to other women. She has the magic Julia Roberts formula of attracting both male and female affection. But Lawrence is doing so exceedingly well because she doesn’t have anywhere near the same kind of competition that Roberts had back in the day. Both of them came out of nowhere and took the box office by storm but it took Roberts a lot longer to kiss a lot of frogs before she won her Oscar. Lawrence got her first nomination out of the gate and never had to really prove herself. She was just good from the get go. She has Brando-like charisma on screen and steals every movie she’s in. Because of that, winning a second Oscar would seem like a cake walk for her. Ain’t no mountain high enough.

Best Director

The titans vs. the newbies will determine how this plays out. You have your big guns – Ridley Scott, Alejandro G. Inarritu, Steven Spielberg, Quentin Tarantino, Danny Boyle and Todd Haynes. And you have your newbies, Todd McCarthy, Lenny Abramson, John Crowley, Adam McKay.  Who gets in will probably be different, I’m guessing, between the Globes, the DGA and the Academy. It will depend on which movies are most liked overall. But probably, I would guess, it will look something like this:

Ridley Scott, The Martian
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
David O. Russell, Joy
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Just outside popular circle: Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation, Adam McKay, The Big Short
They really have to like the movie for it to be: John Crowley, Lenny Abramson

Full predictions

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actress

Supporting Actress

Adapted screenplay

Original screenplay

Random predictions

Best animated feature film of the year
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Peanuts Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Minions

Achievement in cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. The Martian
3. In the Heart of the Sea
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Carol

Achievement in costume design
1. Carol
2. Suffragette
3. Cinderella
4. The Danish Girl
5. Bridge of Spies

Best documentary feature
1. He Named Me Malala
2. Going Clear
3. What Happened, Miss Simone?
4. Winter on Fire
5. Amy

Achievement in film editing
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. Joy
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies

Best foreign language film of the year
Son of Saul (Hungary)
The Assassin (Taiwan)
The Second Mother (Brazil)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany

Achievement in production design
Carol
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Star Wars

Achievement in sound editing
The Revenant
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Inside Out
Star Wars

Achievement in sound mixing
Star Wars
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Son of Saul
The Hateful Eight

Achievement in visual effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars
Everest
Jurassic World*
In the Heart of the Sea