The Directors Guild Awards this Saturday feel so locked, we’re not even running a contest to predict them. There doesn’t seem to be anyone other than Jane Campion who will win. Maggie Gyllenhaal is thought to be the winner in First-Time Feature. Summer of Soul is likely the winner in Documentary. After that, we wait to see what the BAFTA will do Sunday afternoon, then the Critics Choice Sunday evening. We will know by the end of this weekend if we have a bona fide frontrunner in The Power of the Dog or if there is a challenger in the Best Picture category.
When Marshall and I ran our preferential ballot simulation earlier this week, we collected roughly 700 votes. These votes were so united in regard to the kind of people voting on them that the overall rankings of the films barely changed from beginning to end of the process, meaning as counting progressed the films clung their initial positions from Round 1. Maybe one film on a lower rung would overtake another but for the most part, the rankings barely changed. That tells me it was too much of a hive mind to be effective in our poll, or else this does reflect the general consensus in the industry.
Here are a table and a graph of the count:
That is a good way to see how a frontrunner stays a frontrunner if it doesn’t have a strong challenger heading into Round 1. If it does, that is how you can sometimes see a Moonlight-like upset. What happened with Moonlight was that for people whose favorites weren’t either Moonlight or La La Land, when you count down their ballot, whichever of those two they ranked higher could collect more votes and gain momentum. But this is only if it’s a close race or if the frontrunner is vulnerable heading in.
The only sign of weakness we see from The Power of the Dog thus far is no SAG Ensemble nomination and no SAG wins. That isn’t a dealbreaker, of course: The Shape of Water had a similar situation, with actors nominated but no ensemble and no SAG wins. The Shape of Water won the Producers Guild, though it did not win the BAFTA — Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri did.
We know Jane Campion will win the DGA. Most are assuming she and Power of the Dog will win the BAFTAs for Best Director and Best Film. And many think that the film will clean up at the Critics Choice Awards. Of these, only the BAFTA can really shake up the race. The Critics Choice, even though they have 500 members, are still critics. The Writers Guild will be of no use in this regard since The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, and Belfast are all ineligible. So really, it’s the Producers Guild all the way.
But heading into BAFTA weekend, there is still a slim chance that Belfast could upset there. Even though it is missing an editing nomination at the Oscars, it shows no such weakness at the BAFTAs. It would have a Best Director nomination without a doubt if it weren’t for the special committee — Kenneth Branagh is, after all, the Motherland’s most favorite son. Belfast is also very much a film about Branagh’s family moving to England. This is a story that would be, in an ordinary year, very personal to this group of voters. So it would be very odd if it didn’t win there, but of course, over at Gold Derby, The Power of the Dog is the favorite, with just a few of us dissenters sticking with Belfast. If the film is going to show any strength at all as a spoiler, it will have to be there.
Otherwise, the frontrunner will become Netflix’s first Best Picture win and that will completely change the game. I think everyone in Hollywood is kind of holding their breath on that, waiting to see if streaming can become the new normal for the Oscars WILLINGLY. Of course, they aren’t talking about Apple and CODA. But either film would more or less change the game, since how much money these films made will have no impact on whether they win the Oscar. If it’s going to be any year, it’s going to be this one. COVID obliterated the need for box office completely, so perhaps we have turned that page. We’re still dealing with a situation like the Emmys where the winners are inside subscription-based programming. They aren’t on offer for everyone. You have to pay to be a member to see the content, whether it’s HBO or Netflix.
If I were Netflix, I would change that. I would make sure to steer the ship towards more populist opportunities, like having their own theater, which they are doing in some places. Then again, if the awards continue to head down the road of elitism and isolationism (as Film Twitter seems to want them to do), then the point will be moot and the Oscars can simply retire as a niche experience for the privileged few.
The question is still this: can Power of the Dog win the Producers Guild? If it can, that shows strong support on both the preferential ballot and the plurality ballot. But even if that happens — and even if the movie wins the BAFTA — it can still be derailed at the last minute (1917/Parasite). So you have to remember that. It might matter. It might not.
Here we go.
Best Picture
The Frontrunner: The Power of the Dog (Globe Picture/Director winner)
The Challengers: Belfast (Toronto audience winner, Globe Screenplay winner), CODA (SAG ensemble winner)
Less Likely But Not Impossible:
West Side Story — DGA nominee
Licorice Pizza — DGA nominee
Longer shots:
King Richard — SAG Ensemble nominee
Don’t Look Up — SAG Ensemble nominee
Dune
Nightmare Alley
Drive My Car
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Adapted Screenplay
This category remains open at the moment. CODA could win the WGA against West Side Story. That would give it more strength heading into the Oscars with the SAG/WGA pairing. But The Lost Daughter has momentum coming out of the Scripter and the Spirits. Campion is not likely to win here, IMO, because it is extremely rare for a single writer to win Best Director + Screenplay on a preferential ballot. We’ve seen it done, but only with Birdman and Parasite and they were both with co-writers.
The Lost Daughter, Maggie Gyllenhaal (Scripter)
CODA, Siân Heder (coming in hot)
The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion
Drive My Car, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe (potential spoiler)
Dune, Jon Spaihts, and Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth
Original Screenplay
Film Twitter is hot with PTA on this and that is a good prediction. But Belfast won the Toronto Audience Award and that makes me think it will win at least one Oscar. If it does not win anything else it could win here.
Belfast, Kenneth Branagh (Globe winner)
Licorice Pizza, Paul Thomas Anderson (challenger)
The Worst Person, the World, Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier (potential spoiler)
King Richard, Zach Baylin (possible)
Don’t Look Up , Adam McKay, David Sirota (if it wins the WGA….then maybe)
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard (Globe winner)
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress
Boy, is this category a tough one to predict. Someone told me that there was a correlation between Makeup and an acting category when nominated together. That would favor Jessica Chastain. History (with the exception of last year) tells us that the Oscar goes either to the Globe or the SAG winner. But we know that history might not be in play with the extended season. Stewart has heat and momentum and could win at the Critics Choice and then the Oscar. Tough one.
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (SAG winner)
Kristen Stewart, Spencer (has momentum)
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (Globe winner)
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Best Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur, CODA (SAG winner)
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (Globe winner)
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (SAG/Globe winner)
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Best Cinematography
It seems MORE likely if Power doesn’t win BP that it would win the Director + Cinematography, like Gravity, La La Land, etc. Voters like to spread the wealth. If Power wins BP then this could go to any of the five.
The Power of the Dog, Ari Wegner
Dune, Greig Fraser
Nightmare Alley, Dan Laustsen
The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story, Janusz Kaminski
Best Costume Design
Cruella, Jenny Beavan
Dune, Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
Nightmare Alley, Luis Sequeira
West Side Story, Paul Tazewell
Cyrano, Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
Best Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul
Flee
Ascension
Attica
Writing with Fire
Documentary Short
Audible
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Lead Me Home
Best Editing
This is up in the air as well. Dune did not win the ACE Eddie, where it was expected to win. Honestly, this is a very tough category to predict. Usually it goes to a Best Picture nominee but not always. Dragon Tattoo won this without the Eddie.
King Richard, Pamela Martin
Dune, Joe Walker
The Power of the Dog, Peter Sciberras
Don’t Look Up, Hank Corwin
tick, tick…BOOM! Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
International Feature
Drive My Car, Japan
Flee, Denmark
The Hand of God, Italy
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, Bhutan
The Worst Person in the World, Norway
Makeup and Hairstyling
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
Original Score
Dune, Hans Zimmer
Encanto, Germaine Franco
Don’t Look Up, Nicholas Britell
Parallel Mothers, Alberto Iglesias
The Power of the Dog, Jonny Greenwood
Original Song
“Down To Joy” from Belfast, Van Morrison
“No Time To Die” from No Time to Die, Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
“Be Alive” from King Richard, DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto, Lin-Manuel Miranda
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days, Diane Warren
Best Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Animated Short Film
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Best Live Action Short
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Long Goodbye
The Dress
On My Mind
Please Hold
Best Sound
Dune
Belfast
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Visual Effects
Dune
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
And that, my friends, is all she wrote, for now. We will check back in after the big blowout of this weekend.
