The Directors Guild did the impossible by acknowledging Joseph Kosinksi’s brilliant work in Top Gun: Maverick. It might not be the favorite of film critics or the bloggerati, but it’s most definitely The Movie of the Year for a good many people, and very likely the only movie most people will remember from 2022. The DGA is showing that they still have one foot in the real world, while the awards race just gets smaller and smaller every year. It is more and more insular with more naval gazing, but the idea is still to make movies that people watch.
In no universe should Top Gun: Maverick be left off the list for any of the major awards. Tom Cruise should have gotten in with this morning’s SAG nominees for Best Actor. He didn’t. That’s fine. The Directors Guild showed that the movie industry isn’t going to completely turn their back on the public.
Much will be made of the fact that no women are in the DGA’s lineup. It’s extremely difficult to get in the DGA and voters have to be urged to align around one woman if they want to get any in. Even when everyone aligns around one woman it’s still hard to get in: ask Ava DuVernay or Kathryn Bigelow back in 2012. Yes, we recently had a year where there were two women in Best Director. But that was 2020 and it was a strange year overall. In general, it still takes a village to make that happen.
This year, the critics have rallied more around Charlotte Wells and Aftersun, not Sarah Polley and Women Talking. The former is more likely in for Best Director, the latter more likely in for Best Picture. But they can’t just scream about no women being in the race. There has to be a concerted effort, especially at a time such as this, to rally behind ONE woman, IMO. Also garnering well-deserved attention are Gina Prince-Bythewood for The Woman King ad Maria Schrader for She Said.
Hollywood is having a hard time as it is holding onto audiences, making money at the box office. All of these factors are playing into how voters are voting. They can’t really afford to worry as much about the activism side of film awards. They have to also think about the commercial side.
As far as the acting categories go, the lead categories could go either way. Best Supporting Actor and maybe Best Supporting Actress (both Ke Huy Quan and Angela Bassett gave great speeches at the Globes, which helps) seem to be fairly locked in at the moment. Who is going to deny them?
Best Picture often wins without a lead-acting win. Nomadland, The King’s Speech, and The Artist are the only recent exceptions. They like to spread the wealth with the big awards. Not always, of course, but often. So if Cate Blanchett is going to win in lead, that makes it more likely Everything Everywhere could win Best Picture. If Colin Farrell wins for Banshees, that may make it less likely for the film to win. That Michelle Williams isn’t in for The Fabelmans might mean that film has a better chance to win.
These aren’t hard and fast rules. They can be broken at any given time. But that’s just how things seem to have gone lately.
We know that in the era of the expanded ballot, no film wins a sweep anymore. They seem to like spreading the wealth because they’re thinking about ten Best Picture contenders, not five Best Picture contenders. We often see a film that wins the most Oscars in a night not winning Best Picture:
The first year of the expanded ballot is the only year that looks like how the Oscars used to:
If they want to save themselves from the ruination of obscurity, the Academy will go back to five Best Picture nominees and start building up some power again. I don’t think that’s happening. I think they’ll go to a streaming platform like SAG just announced it was doing. That way they can serve their own small niche without the embarrassment of bad ratings or slumping box office. But either way, having more contenders dilutes the power of the Best Picture champion, in my opinion. Best Picture is almost an afterthought.
Let’s talk about what we know. All five DGA nominees will get into Best Picture. Only once in the era of the expanded ballot did the DGA five not make and that was the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, much to my own personal horror. Otherwise, those five are in. We already knew that, but just for the hell of it:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Tár
Then, according to my charts, a film that shows up in the AFI, NBR, Globe, and Critics Choice lands a nod (with Inside Llewyn Davis, Mary Poppins Returns and If Beale Street Could Talk as the only exceptions):
Avatar: The Way of Water
In general, with a few notable exceptions, having both the Critics Choice and the SAG ensemble can lead to a Best Pic nomination. Not always, of course, but often. So then we have:
Women Talking
Babylon
Next, we get Golden Globes + Critics Choice:
Elvis
Finally, here is the BAFTA long list:
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
That leaves us with one last slot. You can decide what you think that will be. Given its strong showing at BAFTA, I would guess it’s All Quiet on the Western Front. But it could be anything. I think The Woman King and Black Panther are likely canceling each other out, but that wouldn’t be a factor with the preferential ballot. That means one or the other is likely to get in. Aftersun might get in, or any title from BAFTA’s long list.
Will the Producers Guild clarify anything? Not necessarily. They’ve almost always miss at least one.
Regarding winners, 6/13 times since 2009 the winner came from the Golden Globes. That means it would either be The Fabelmans or The Banshees of Inisherin.
When you fold in the Toronto People’s Choice Award to figure out which films won both Toronto and the Globe, you get these six films since 2000:
Slumdog Millionaire
12 Years a Slave
La La Land
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Green Book
Nomadland
Four of these films (Slumdog, 12 Years, Green Book, Nomadland) went on to win Best Picture.
From a stats perspective, this seems to give The Fabelmans the edge. But again, it’s too early to say one way or the other.
The Critics Choice very likely will pick Everything, Everywhere All at Once. That seems to be the more “Film Twitter” + critics-friendly film. How do they stack up with wins? 7/13 times.
If The Fabelmans also wins the Critics Choice awards this weekend, it will be in a much stronger position. The films that have won both the Critics Choice and the Globe have always won Best Picture:
The Artist
Argo
12 Years a Slave
Nomadland
Similarly, when you pair the SAG ensemble with DGA you always get a winner:
Birdman
Argo
The King’s Speech
The only films that won the National Board of Review and the Oscar was Green Book. That seems to indicate Top Gun: Maverick is a long shot pick.
Finally, no movie has come from nowhere and won Best Picture. It had to win one of these precursors first.
None of the categories have a clear frontrunner. It’s going to come down to speeches, buzz, and the way the wind blows. Tomorrow, the Producers Guild will add to the mix, and by the weekend, we’ll get a whole new batch of winners when the Critics Choice Awards hold their ceremony.
Because of last year’s surprise winner, CODA, it isn’t wise to get too bogged down in our certainty at the moment. I think the internet is all in for Everything, Everywhere All at Once and I could see that winning. I could see The Fabelmans winning and I could see The Banshees of Inisherin winning. Top Gun would have a harder climb because of the acting branch which dominates the Academy.
In general, though, Best Picture goes with Director OR Screenplay, rarely both:
With Director only:
The Shape of Water — PGA/DGA
Nomadland — PGA/DGA
The Artist — PGA/DGA
With Screenplay only:
Argo — PGA/DGA/SAG
12 Years a Slave — PGA
Spotlight — SAG/WGA
Moonlight — only WGA
Green Book — PGA
CODA — SAG/PGA/WGA
With both:
The Hurt Locker — PGA/DGA
The King’s Speech — PGA/DGA/SAG
Birdman — PGA/DGA/SAG
Parasite — SAG/WGA
And there you have it. We’ll follow up with tomorrow’s announcement of the PGA, if anything changes.
FINALLY ON AVATAR WAY OF WATER REALLY? JUST COS IT LIKE OVER 10 YEARS SINCE IT RELEASE DOES NOT EXCUSE OR JUSTIFY SUCH A CONVOLUTED MESS OF A SEQUEL…IT NOT EXPLAINED HOW ‘SPIDER’ LINKED TO DEAD YET REINCARCARNATED QUARITCH, IT VERY FRUSTRATING HOW HE JUST POPS UP OUT OF BLUE…SO TO SPEAK…Then on top of that it really is a bit much to bog us down in what is it? 4-5 siblings in 10 years? as narrative structure and storytelling you think Cameron be more measured not sold interplay dynamic works as more limited ytet more potent dynamic in first film which is simply GREAT! ‘The Way of Water’ does play out as part ‘screensaver in 8k ‘ resolution…furthermore..10 year gap and Quaritch returns as main rival? cmon …
i cant help but feel Cameron got sooo caught up in excitement doing film once very 10 years he got to quote Quaritch from original far superior Avatar ‘lost in the damn woods’ i sorry but Way of Water is overbloated, overrated while i admit i need see it second time…throwing too much in the pot just overwhelms audience confuses them…i hope Cameron’s Third Avatar does NOT see return to Quaritch and IF next Avatar film released depending on timespace between releases if it few years ok since he gone that path Quaritch as navi avatar should return but honestly? if it 10 year timespan? plus? do away with Quaritch – Sully rivalry introduce something new…hell while you at it Cameron, how bout killing off characters that really i guarantee lot you feel same way given they came from nowhere we dont care about like ‘Spider’ maybe have tragedy befall 2 opf their siblings to make writing, abiltyi audience to engage more clarity more accessiblity ..Avatar world is vast and deep and that brilliant love that love the new water based tribe intrduced and fight in waters to end..brilliant..still master of his craft Cameron is but cmon when third film comes out scrape off barnacles pls ey? there too many and your ‘ship’ cant get fluent motion here Avatar Way of Water as proven case back at time with Star WArs reboot franchise just cos it record breaking sequel does not mean it should be best pic contender proof some you sceptical fo me i dont always necessarily endorse higest grossing biggest litewrally longest- overlong run time of way of water.
Now IF there is a plus 10 year span for next Avatar release or between other Avatar film releases in future here idea Cameron, end the Quaritch storyline, kill off annoying irritable pop in n out ‘spider’ kill off 2 siblings of 4-5 of Sully’ character and have new enemy as new enemy alien race…looking to take over PANDORA ! then that would justify a nearly 3.30 min runtime…then i have another idea tell me all what u think this in sequel to one where big alien invasion threatens PANDORA and EVERYTHING AND EVERYONE livelihood on the entire planet, then have big TWIST and Pandora discovering they need Human knowledge and insight anmd capability to assist them to repel enemy alien force, then a treaty between humans and Pandoran Native showing respect to understand they can SHARE resources but not to engage NAvi sacred sites with force respect mutually their ways their cul;ture…
Then in FUTURE SEQUEL say 3rd one from this second one, have Pandora undergoing geological transformation and fusion of human and navi technology and alliance having quarantined enemy aliens to distant corner of planet thwarted their conqeust of Pandora for now..to have humans and PAndoran natives face their biggest test post alien invasion: – working together to RELOCATE and reestablish on far side of PAndora BEFORE massive Earth terraforming wave caused from Pandora say rotating out of it orbit – call it quirk in way Pandora rotates with say once- every 100 yr natural event…and massive operation for humans and navi to work together to relocate all colonies and clans to safer moere stable part of pandora.
The point is AVATAR had balance right in it original iteration and first film- in that, indeed…it NOT oversaturated with characters had right amount for each aspect of PANDORUM culture…overall ie- balance of 3 or so major characters for science team, 2 for head military team, 4 for the NAVI but in second Avatar movie you have like: ludicrous- 6-7 for NAVI , 5 for new water clan , 3 for main military, and 2 neutrals with annoying irritable ‘spider’ being one of them…
how do others feel bout my trahjectory for ideas and my views of ‘Way of Water’? i actually hold on best picture nominee for Way of Water and give it to better balanced rounded picture dont you think? absolutely loved the water craft technology and pivot to tough decision to relocate by Sully n his family to water clan…
But i think number of critics hence it lower overall ratings overall compared to original Avatar combined with its…is it gonn abreak avatars original box office record is considerable disappointment hopefully third film focus more on big picture ideas of nature of planet of Pandora and reenergise it science mythology that was lacking in this one….tooooo character character centric dont you think?
“The DGA is showing that they still have one foot in the real world, while the awards race just gets smaller and smaller every year. It is more and more insular with more naval gazing, but the idea is still to make movies that people watch.
In no universe should Top Gun: Maverick be left off the list for any of the major awards. Tom Cruise should have gotten in with this morning’s SAG nominees for Best Actor. He didn’t. That’s fine. The Directors Guild showed that the movie industry isn’t going to completely turn their back on the public.”
Maybe, HOPEFULLY Sasha hopefully but i dare not have much hope here…the other stat you not covered is how nauseatingly often- to its own deteriment the DGA winner has been of a film less than sum of it parts and less than sum by FAR of it appeal and relevance in the conciousness of respectable proportion of film goers..
when i say ‘respectable’ I mean as i said before but for clarification cos some people- not all JUST DONT GET IT i not advocating for STAR WARS type fanfare to be favourite (unless it bloody damn good sequel)- worth noting TOP GUN MAVERICK much like THE DARK KNIGHT in that year has shown in a very big rarity how MASSIVE sequels ot prior established characters and eras from diff time ie- i know with Dark Knight that it adapted from graphic novel but for arguments sake you can say it draws on some limited influence from original BATMAN films incidentally in same era from as when first TOP GUN was released…
TOP GUN MAVERICK HAS PROVEN BEYOND ALL DOUBT TO EVEN THE SCEPTICS THAT ONCE AGAIN AS WAS CASE WITH THE DARK KNIGHT INFAMY OF THAT YEAR..THAT INDEED..YOIU CAN HAVE A NEARON 30 YR SPAN BETWEEN FIRST AND SECOND FILM OR IN DARK KNIGHTS CASE BETWEEN FIRST MAINSTREAM HOLLYWOOD BATMAN VISION AND DARK KNIGHT ALTERNATE NTERPRETATION, AND STILL SURPASS EVEN STUDIOS WILDEST HOPES AND DREAMS AND! FILM GOERS! ..AND ON TOP OF THAT RIVAL QUALITY AND STANDARD SET BY GAME CHANGING TOP GUN ITSELF! ALMOST! WHICH FRANKLY IS MORE THAN OUTSTANDING COMPELLING A CASE FOR IT TO WIN BEST PICTURE-
I THINK PPLE HERE ARE MISTAKEN GIVEN EXTENT CODA’S WIN CREATED RAFT OF NEW POSSIBLITIES IN OUTCOMES- WHAT ALL US SILLY THINK BASED ON PRECURSORS WAS IMPOSSIBLE !! (INCIDENTALLY I LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT AS OER SASHA’S ABOVE INDICATORS THOUGH THAT CODA IS ONLY ONE DESPITE IT MERE LESS THAN DESERVED 3 OSCAR WINS TO WON WGA/SAG/PGA IN ITS ERA COMPARED TO OTHERS WHICH SPEAKS VOLUMES OF IT QUALITY AND IMPACT AND IMPORTANCE CULTURALLY IN OUR SOCIETY AND EXTENT HOW POPULAR EVNE ON STREAMING IT WAS AND BEYOND THAT… AND FEW OTHERS (THOSE OTHERS ME AND MOST US DID NOT APPROVE OF HISTORY HAS REFLECTED THAT WITH DIRE DROPS IN AUDIENCE RATINGS IN YEARS OF ‘MOONLIGHT, SPOTLIGHT, NOBODYSLAND, PARTICULARLY- WILL OSCAR REALLY GO FOR ‘BANSHEES’ OR THE ‘EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE OY WHAT A MESS ‘ SHENANIGANS? BOTH THESE FILMS AUDIENCE FOLLOWING IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE…SERIOUSLY CAN AWARDS SEASON JUST GROW UP AND START TO REENGAGE WITH US WITH EXCTITING, ENERGETIC MORE DYNAMIC FILMS WINNING? THAT ACTUALLY MATTER TO US AND MAINSTREAM FILM GOERS WE CARE ABOUT?
With great respect to my good mate here Claudio i just dont see logic of stats and facts not just CODA that rewrote the game.. here…few others started to point to direction of a CODA type win- as i said ONE EXCEPTION TO MY RULE of being against VEHEMENTLY SO activist driven drivel and mundane intterelationship social dynamics pedestrian drama WHICH IS WHAT THE BORESHEES OF INISHERIN IS! GEES COULD WE THINK OF MORE DULL FILM TO WIN BEST PICTURE ACADEMY EY?? KINDS DEFEATS PURPOSE OF RETURNING TO CINEMA BEING MAIN REVIVAL STORY IT IS AS PANDEMIC SLOWLY PAINFULLY BUT CERTAINLY LOOSENS IT GRASP ON CINEPLEXES THROAT IMAGINE GUYS WHAT A TRAGEDY IT WOULD BE HOW WOULD THAT LOOK TO THOSE FILM MAKERS WHO PUT AS MUCH ARGUABLY MORE EFFORT IN PUTTING MORE BROADLY APPEALING AND CRITICALLY ACCLAIMED FARE THAT PPLE LOVE TO TALK ABOUT FAR MORE THAN ‘BORESHEES’ IF OSCAR GO FOR A FILM THAT ACTUALLY HAD MINIMAL IMPACT AT BOX OFFICE…IT PRIORITY IS NOT TO IMMERSE FILM AUDIENCES BUT TELL INCREASINGLY AWARDS BAITY TALE OF FRIENDSHIP IN BACKDROP OF CHAOS THAT FAR REMOVED FROM LIMITED SMALL PLAY CAST WHICH IS BIG SHAME COS MAYBE IMMERSING THE BACKDROP GIVEN SETTING OF WAR IRELANDS ROLE IN IT COULD ELEVATED BLANDSHEES BE LESS FUKIN BLAND! SO WHAT MISSED TRAVERSTY OF OPPORTUNITY LOOMING FOR 2022′-2022’S AWARD SEASON I DONT TRUST OSCAR GET IT RIGHT..
BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN TOP GUN MAVERICK OR FABLEMANS OUGHT BE UNDERESTIMATED EITHER..AND WATCH OUT FOR ‘ELVIS’ FOR PRESLEYS HAD MONUMENTAL IMPACT IN RESHAPING HOLLYWOOD WITH THEIR PRESENCE AND INFLUENCE ON CULTURE THEERE AND BEYOND IN LIGHT OF PASSING OF LISA MARIE PRESLEY ENORMOUSLY TRAGIC- WHY HASNT ANYONE AT AD DONE TRIBUTE TO HER AND HOW THIS COULD TURN ENTIRE AWARDS SEASON ON IT HEAD GIVEN WE HAVE ELVIS MOVIE- TO COMMEMORATE 65TH ANNIVERSARY ELVIS’ DEATH AND IN SHADOWS OF AWARD SEASON IN SAME YEAR TRANSITION TO THIS YEAR ELVIS DAUGHTER PASSES AWAY DONT UNDERESTIMATE THIS FACTOR COULD TOTALLY TRASH STATS BOOK ALTOGETHER AGAIN!
AND WHY NOT?!!
Actually if you go back to 1995 Braveheart did not win a single pre-cursor award, not even a regional film critics Best Picture. Apollo 13 swept the Screen Actors, Producers & Directors Guilds. Scratching my head on that one.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Animated
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
The Whale over RRR? GDT stanning goes on. The Bad Guys shoulda replaced Pinocchio.
PGA noms are out!
Thumbs up: Andor
Thumbs down: Black Panther 2. Just…why?
Well, to recognize the only Marvel movie that was good last year. Multiverse of Madness? Nah.
It wasn’t good though.
So,
Predictions on who will be the nominations leader?
Probably Everything Everywhere. But I don’t think any film will get into double figures.
Given its track record at Critics Choice and a lot of the regional critics circles I think EEAAO has the edge with 9
BP
Director
Actress
Supp actor
Supp actress x2
O screenplay
Editing
Sound
A lot of things happened in the last few weeks. I have got the sense the stars have aligned for Everything Everywhere, while my concerns about The Fabelmans have only grown. My doubts for a long time over The Fabelmans were about what else it could win besides BD, and also its relatively poor showing in critics awards (not winning any major best film award isn’t a bog deal, but not winning ANY major category except NBR BD, which isn’t predictive). Then a new data (Dallas) showed that Spielberg probably isn’t winning Best Director. And because I felt The Fabelmans was too weak to win Best Picture I felt that would have an affect on BD. Do we seriously think that Spielberg will win a lone BD? I know it happened last year but that was purely by accident because everything fell apart at the last minute for The Powerol of The Dog. It was enough for it to lose in Screenplay and Supporting Actor and other categories, but Campion was already too strong and none of her cintendes were close to upset her in BD at the death, which wasn’t the case in other the categories. So, the only way Spielberg is winning BD is if his film wins Best Picture, too. Both Everything Everywhere and Banshees are stronger in the major categories than The Fabelmans. I have had major doubts about Everything Everywhere winning Best Picture, but when I saw all the signs pointing to it I started to question how it can actually win. I mean, Banshees seems too strong to lose in Screenplay, so how can Everything Everywhere win BP without it? Then I remembered that there’s always a category that’s a decisive factor each year and that decides the race. It’s usually Screenplay when the two main contenders go head to head. The Screenplay winner is more likely to win BP when it beats its main BP challenger in that category. That suggests Banshees is the strongest and has the edge. However, it just doesn’t feel right to me. I’d love it to win, but it feels unlikely to me. Everything Everywhere has more going for it than the other two big contenders. But how can it win Best Picture without winning Screenplay, too? That’s why I think BD could be the decisive factor this year. I now see a clear path for the Daniels winning BD and that will carry their film to Best Picture. I think the realistic path for Everything Everywhere winning Best Picture is through BD rather than Screenplay. I also think another sign that Everything Everywhere is winning Best Picture is if Yeoh wins Best Actress, because if they love her performance it plays into the narrative for the film. It’s possible that Everything Everywhere could win BP with two acting and Editing wins and, to be honest, that would my preferred scenario because I still want Spielberg to win BD and Banshees Screenplay and Lead Actor. However, I now think it’s unlikely Spielberg will win BD after BAFTA has landed an almost fatal blow on him by snubbing in BD. There is no excuse for this major snub and which cannot be blamed on the jury selection since he couldn’t even make the long list. The last Oscar BD winner to miss BAFTA was Oliver Stone for Born On The Fourth Of July in 1990. But that was when BAFTA held its ceremony AFTER the Oscars and it hasn’t happened since 2001 when they went BEFORE the Oscars. Either the Academy just really loves The Fabelmans and wins BP and BD along with at least another or a lot of goodwill for Spielberg pushes him to win BD. The latter is unclear, but there’s not a lot of evidence for the former yet. Williams was supposed to be the driving force of the film, so her miss at SAG is a big worry for me because it suggests to me that it’s maybe not as loved as we think it is or expect for a wouldbe BP winner. How did she miss SAG if they loved it so much? Dano nomination is a good one, though.
The thing with Fabelmans is that is doesn’t really have a BP path unlike Banshees and Everything (and maybe Top Gun if it lands in Actor and Director).
It still has a path and Spielberg seems to be favourite despite two datas pointing to contrary. I was skeptical before but Dallas and BAFTA do seem to confirm by suspicion. It doesn’t seem to have any chance of winning in acting and Screenplay, so it relies only on BD and that’s shaky. Spielberg has ti be a massive favourite for me to predict him as BD winner.
You would have thought West Side Story would have succeeded by that metric.
But he’s assumed favourite status from the very beginning and that wasn’t the case with WSS. He’s still assumed the favourite despite that massive miss at BAFTA. He won GG so people might just gloss over the BAFTA miss. I want him to win because I really liked The Fabelmans, but the status don’t say that. But the Daniels would be very peculiar winners as they don’t really have much hnof a reputation, so to back them to win over Spielberg seems risky. But the stats say they are favourites. BD is the likeliest route to BP for their film, so you’ve got to predict them as BD winners If you’re predicting to win BP.
Sian Heder had NO reputation and she took home two Oscars last year including the Big Boy.
It’s such a crapshoot, right movie right time.
Maybe, I’d be skeptical until I see the wins. Only when it won SAG, WGA and PGA did we take CODA seriously as BP winners. Everything Everywhere is in a much stronger position, but it hasn’t won any major guilds yet. SAG looks likely to go to them but PGA and DGA are less clear. They could lose DGA and still win the Oscar BD if their film is winning Best Picture. In short I think whichever one of those two films is winning Best Picture will also win BD. That’s unless Everything Everywhere wins two acting awards and Editing along with BP, then Spielberg could take a lone BD. But that’s an unlikely scenario.
I think if Banshees wins SAG and at least one acting award it will romp
I’m not sure. I mean, that would indicate clear support from actors and combine that with its likely Screenplay win it could be unstoppable. But what if The Fabelmans wins SAG? That would also show strength. We’re not sure about how the major guilds are likely to go. It will depend on which has the biggest support from the guilds. Banshees is only likely to win one at most one guild and that’s SAG. it’s ineligible for WGA and DGA is unlikely. PGA is a possibility but will they pass up on an opportunity to reward a box office hit like Everything Everywhere? I don’t think Banshees will be the guilds champion, but whoever is will be the Best Picture winner.
Williams missing SAG was a big red flag though. Paul Dano (who ironically turns out to be the actual sympathetic character) was shunted aside during the campaign and I’m not sure they have enough time to change up the narrative
Yeah, missing an obvious nomination isn’t a good sign. Dano isn’t going to help because he’s a filler at best . A film that’s so weak in acting and Screenplay has only won once this century and that was The Shape of Water. 2917/18. And that film was stronger than The Fabelmans in almost every department, stats wise.
In terms of predicting director, I think assessing the DGA winner is the best approach at the moment to gain a grasp on the field. And in terms of the very baseline stats of that, basically the Globe-DGA and BAFTA-DGA stats (I didn’t look at the BFCA-DGA stats because I’d imagine there’s absolutely nothing there), are that since the BAFTA date shift (2000) there have been no DGA winners that haven’t been nominated for the BAFTA, and since the Globes have had five directing nominees (1956) there has only been one DGA winner that didn’t get a directing nomination at the Globes (The Sting). Thus already this very simplistic approach would imply that McDonagh and The Daniels would seem the most reasonable choices. And this basically makes me just think that whatever wins picture wins DGA, and thus while I agree that directing is a sign of best picture this year, I think the direction you’re implying might not be the appropriate one: perhaps it’s that picture leads to director rather than director leads to picture
That’s exactly what I’m thinking right now. Usually there’s a clear favourite for BD and that as well as overall strength will lead to BP win. It’s rather circular. The stronger you are in the major categories, the more likely you are to win BP and vice versa. Banshees is big favourite in Original Screenplay and with the three main contenders going head to head, it could be the most likely winner. However, it doesn’t feel right to me and Everything Everywhere feels much better. BD is unclear and that’s the path for Everything Everywhere triumph. Same reasoning as Spielberg: I can’t see the Daniels winning Best Director without also winning Best Picture. I suppose it’s possible Banshees takes them all, but that’s highly unlikely.
anyone know what time the pga announces today?
Remember when a little film or an oddball film contending for Oscar used to excite people? That all seemed to change when Slumdog won and Dark Knight didn’t.
I believe that director’s branch will nominate Berger or Wells because many members are foreigners. Here, in Brazil, AQOTWF and Aftersun are beloved movies.
Wells would be an inspired choice. But I just don’t see either happening. I don’t her film is strong enough and none of the International films are that strong. I think Cameron will replace Kosinski at the Oscars.
Key precursor wins and nominations table, updated with the Golden Globe results, SAG and DGA nominations and many more things – the top 20:
https://pasteboard.co/F6cVQ8hCifZn.jpg
(Disqus won’t let me upload images here, right now, for some reason. Says I need to be logged in, even though I already am.)
Red font score is weighted total, blue font score is straight count. The only misses for the top 3:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once: Satellite Awards Best Director (15 of the last 16 Oscar Best Pictures had it) – that’s it, and it’s far from major. Although a bigger problem might be that it didn’t win picture/director/screenplay at the Globes and, if it fails to do so at Critics Choice, as well, it goes into a group that has just one precedent in the BFCA era, around 30 years, for winning Best Picture. (CODA) Whereas the other two in the top three have already insured they won’t have this problem, with their big Globe wins. This might not be a problem at all, of course, it it does win one or more of those awards on Sunday. It also gets an extra point for winning the Phoenix Film Critics Society Award for Best Picture, which 9 of the last 12 (11 of the last 15, etc.) Oscar winners did as well.
2. The Banshees of Inisherin: Chicago Film Critics Association Best Director (14 of the last 16 had it) and Critics Choice Best Editing (9 of the last 11) – both minor, but it shows potential weakness in two different categories. And no PFCS BP win.
3. The Fabelmans: Chicago Film Critics Association Best Film (16 of the last 18) and Best Director, Critics Choice Best Editing and no PFCS BP win. All minor, all can easily be overcome, and not just CODA, but also others, have overcome more/worse than these. The larger problem, which can’t be reflected in this table at this time, because it’s not yet known what other contenders will miss there, is the impending BAFTA directing snub.
Tár, which is in fourth, has a number of bigger problems, the biggest of which is, now, that it has only one SAG nomination and it’s not for ensemble – 25 of the last 26 Oscar BP winners had either the ensemble nomination or two acting mentions there. The Globe directing miss (15 of the last 16), etc.; Top Gun: Maverick, the last DGA nominee, which is in sixth (behind Women Talking, both having missed a lot of important things, already), has the same SAG issue (except worse, not even having an acting nomination there), it missed screenplay at Critics Choice (no BP winners have really overcome that, ever – not in years with 5 or more screenplay nominees at the Critics Choice), Globe directing+screenplay (31 of the last 32 BP winners had at least one of those two nominations) and so on…
Every frontrunner post-Globes gets hit with one last flourish of negative campaigning, some of which took down said frontrunners (La La Land, Three Billboards, Boyhood come to mind immediately). What do you think the Fabelmans/Banshees pushback will be?
I’m very much the wrong person to ask. 🙂 I stick to the facts (precursors and historical patterns), for the most part, and have no such insights on campaigning – I rely on you guys to provide those, to complete the picture for me, each year…
Hm, you missed the Spielberg BAFTA longest miss, and in fact, 14 of the last 16 Best Picture winners were nominated for directing at the Globes. 15 of the last 16 were nominated for Best Film there, so The Fabelmans might very well miss that as well.
The Banshees might face a very hard final stretch this year. It’ll be unable to win the WGA (ineligible), and SAG ensemble will most likely go to EEAAO (the fun ensemble, diverse etc. – SAG-AFTRA loves that!). So what can Banshees win? It needs wins from at least two guilds to win Picture. Let’s say it wins Female Supporting at the SAG Awards (which is no foregone conclusion). Then what?
Fabelmans underperformed so heavily at BAFTA that I don’t think it gets in for Best Film.
Actually i think it may be in the Academy’s Interest to BLOCK OUT increasingly leftist pathologically driven disconnected from reality BAFTA driven getting there- even more by the idiotic twitterati madness- with the way BAFTA have had their whole structure…i half expect believe it or not fool i may be that BAFTA snub will have NO CONSEQUENCE TO THE FABELMANS chances….frankly i not sure why so many people downplaying the Fablemans BIG I OWE YOU factor to Spielberg in play here given he not won anything since 1997-98!! add to the fact his influence over mainstream cinema still looms larger than from anyone else even James Cameron we know how much Oscar love i owe you’s this one is justified cos it Spielberg. Simple as that.. but seems to me it far better for Oscars LONGEVITY AND SURVIVAL as far as mainstream viewers it since abandoned are concerned that it STOP BLOCKS OUT WHITE NOISE INCREASINGLY IRRELEVANT DISGRACE THAT IS THE BAFTAS.
Yes, Spielberg winning BD is very questionable now after he missed BAFTA. I think BD could the big factor this year. And maybe Lead Actress. Both would a hood indication of whether Everything Everywhere wins BP.
“The larger problem, which can’t be reflected in this table at this time, because it’s not yet known what other contenders will miss there, is the impending BAFTA directing snub.”
I guess my posts are too long sometimes and people just won’t bother to read the whole thing… 🙂 To reiterate: I can’t deduct points for missing a nomination but not deduct it from others that might also miss. The snub will be reflected soon enough. The table isn’t complete yet, anyway, there are many things still to be announced. I could use the BAFTA longlists themselves, ideally, but there isn’t enough historical data to have an even half-decent sample size, so not really. They haven’t been (back) around long enough.
Good point on Banshees. I do think it has some chances to win SAG Ensemble, now that it’s actually nominated and got 4 acting nods. They gave it to McDonagh before and movies like this have also won before. I do think EEAAO is the favorite for ensemble, of course, but I don’t think it’s anywhere near a lock. SAG isn’t that predictable, to be able to call locks like that. And it might, of course, win PGA. They do go for such things, at times. Not often, but enough.
“The films that have won both the Critics Choice and the Globe have always won Best Picture:”
I think this is what Kellyanne calls alternative facts.
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As I said below, I think she meant the ones that won those two and the TIFF audience award – which does check out. 4 for 4.
But those films were pretty strong across the board.
Movies stronger than that, across the board, have lost before, and you know it. 🙂 The rule seems pretty relevant. I don’t think The Fabelmans is winning Critics Choice, anyway, so it won’t come into play this year. Its best shot is PGA, by far. (Assuming the DGA win happens. Which is not looking good at all, without a BAFTA directing nomination/win. But it’s still possible, perhaps.) And getting into editing.
In what world do you live in where streaming is a small niche?
More than half of Americans watch Netflix – https://www.insiderintelligence.com/insights/netflix-subscribers/
74% of Americans watch at least one of Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime – https://www.fiercevideo.com/video/nearly-75-u-s-households-have-either-netflix-hulu-or-amazon-prime-video
And this doesn’t include Disney+, Apple, etc.
The idea that Hollywood is struggling to reach audiences is absurd. Audiences are gorging themselves on Hollywood’s products every night in the comfort of their own homes.
I think it’s prone to find a larger audience on streaming in the long run but I do understand what Sasha is saying in terms of MEASURABLE audience in the short run. Award shows are artifacts of the past and we measure them (like Super Bowls and World Series) with traditional ratings metrics.
I think the viewing of award shows should be like vinyl albums — very niche but with passionate fan support. The production of award shows need not necessarily change.
Streaming audiences are much easier to measure. Netflix knows exactly how many minutes every single one of their users has spent watching every show and movie.
Why cling to the “traditional ratings metrics” if those metrics are becoming obsolete? Sports leagues like the NFL and MLB are putting more and more of their games on streaming services every year, because they don’t want to lose younger audiences.
If an Academy voter’s primary or even sole motivation for their Best Picture vote is television ratings, they should have their voting privileges revoked.
But the awards were created to attract big audiences to Hollywood films, so getting a big audience does matter. I don’t agree with the criticism against them by the likes of Sasha, but I think engaging more to see these films does matter. Perhaps the answer isn’t just ratings if live TV. I mean, people can watch these awards the next day on YouTube and.other platforms.
But. As people have shown repeatedly when big blockbusters HAVE hit topline nominations since the LOTR peak, it hasn’t moved the ratings needle a whit. Joker led the 2019 Oscars with 11 nominations and an assured Best Actor win and the ratings were still crap. “Engaging” isn’t working, so is the next move really and truly gonig to be deliberately fixing the results so the big blockbuster wins?
I don’t agree with their arguments as you laid out, but I don’t think it’s right to dismiss the need to attract a bigger audience.
Short of passively or actively rigging the awards, I’m not sure how you can placate people who frankly don’t want to be placated. And since we appear to be at the point of “Give Top Gun Best Picture or else” in some corners, I’m not sure what changes could be made apart from utilizing streaming a whole lot better.
I don’t think the solution is as simplistic as Sasha and claim and big films were nominated before and nobody cared. Ratings are low for all award shows and TV in general. People aren’t watching scheduled TV anymore and prefer it in their own time and on other platforms. Maybe sometimes you’ve got to go where the audience is?
You’re leaving out Pornhub.
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“very likely the only movie most people will remember from 2022…”
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This is just….you look at all the films this year and think somehow this is the one that will be revered in future decades?
Yes, dammit! Now pass me that bong!
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I don’t get all the negativity around this Oscar season. In one year, you have your popular picks (Avatar, Top Gun, Knives Out), smaller films that made it (TAR, Women Talking, The Whale), the delicious disasters (Elvis, Babylon), several international contenders (RRR, Triangle of Sadness, All Quiet) and the actual masterpieces (EEAAO, Banshees). We even have a Spielberg movie, and it’s one of the better ones. Let’s try to enjoy cinema and Oscars while we can?
How is Elvis a disaster? The film made almost 300 mil WW, but then again you consider EEAAO a masterpiece.
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I enjoyed Elvis but I just can not with Baz’s style. Not to mention that god awful Tom Hanks performance that is half the movie.
I’m right there with you. This could be the most fun Oscar race in years, as long as people don’t act like assholes.
I’m with you both, but people do act like assholes. Regularly.
Hear, hear!
Speaking of Saint Steven why does no one care that Arthur C. Clake and Satijit Ray accused Spielberg of plagiarism because Ray had written a screenplay called The Alien which was very similar to E.T. and never got to make his movie because i guess if you are someone like Spielberg you are above mere mortals like the man who made The Apu trilogy and the man who along with Stanley Kubrick gave us 2001 : A Space Odyssey !
I think you’ve missed the point of the comment you’re replying to. It’s better ti talk about what you like rather than bleating about something Spielberg may or may not have done years ago. As Elsa would say, let it go.
TAR belongs to “masterpieces” group. No more, no less.
Yeah, this has been the ugliest Oscar season I can ever remember, but oddly enough the people driving the bulk of that are pointing fingers elsewhere.
Word on the street is that if Top Gun 2 does not win the big prize motion picture production will cease entirely.
Best comment of the day.
And then Tom Cruise will pay weirdos to set up stunts for him to perform in his backyard.
My Top Tens for the Main Six:
*PLEASE NOTE* This is what my PREDICTIONS look like, I am not cheer-leading for any of them.
Picture:
The Fabelmans (The likely winner)
The Banshees of Inisherin (In the running for the win)
Everything, Everywhere, All at Once (Buzz only got stronger as the year progressed)
Tar (Solid nominee, not gonna win)
Top Gun: Maverick (I’m honestly shocked it weathered award season so well considering it’s a sequel to a non-nominee and really just an action movie)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Strong for the nod, weak for the win)
Elvis (Still in the race after this long)
Babylon (Somehow still in the race despite little word of mouth)
Women Talking (Very weak chances now, in danger of losing out, SAG nod helps)
RRR (In my final ten as a split-vote beneficiary; there always seems to be one non-English language contender)
Director:
Spielberg (Set to join Wyler in the three-timers category)
McDonagh (Spielberg’s only challenger)
The Daniels (May win if Spielberg and McDonagh split the vote)
Cameron (Love it or hate it, this is happening)
Field (His notice is a long time coming plus the DGA sealed it)
Kozinski (Strong boost from the DGA’s but not strong enough IMO)
Rajamouli (Watch out for this one; the strongest non-English language competitor)
Polley (The only female with a chance this year)
Luhrmann (The Academy always seems to miss him out
Chazelle (He needed the Globe or DGA nod and didn’t get it; he’s out)
Actor:
Farrell (The Globes caused him to surpass Fraser)
Fraser (The other major contender; will he get the SAG?)
Butler (Now a potential winner after the Globe win; will he take the SAG from Farrell or Fraser?)
Nighy (Love from all the major groups put him ahead of the underdog contenders)
Mescal (Globes and SAG missed him but the critic awards LOVE him, his name is too oft repeated for me to think he’s that weak)
Cruise (Seriously, he needed a Globe or SAG nod to be in contention and got neither; not sure why everyone seems so convinced he’s a lock)
Calva (Unknown actor still being talked about, got Globe nod, could save the category from being whiter than milk, but no real buzz)
Pope (Same as Calva)
Jackman (not happening)
Sandler (Surprise at the SAGs but the Academy seems to really dislike him)
Actress:
Yeoh (Chances of winning much stronger after Globes speech)
Blanchette (The nomination is secure but not the win; Globe or no Globe, third wins for actors are incredibly rare and usually major upsets; predicted third-time winners usually lose, Day-Lewis being the exception)
Williams (The Academy loves her, she’s in a major contender, she’s not winning but the nod is hers, SAG loss may set her back but not out)
Davis (Honestly I can’t think of anything that would stop her nomination)
Deadwyler (after Globe snub she’s back in thanks to SAG, but was never really out IMO)
Robbie (They seem to like her, but buzz has all but died for this film; she needed SAG and didn’t get it)
De Armas (SAG surprise keeps her on the list but did anyone actually like this film?)
Coleman (They love her but no one seems to like this movie)
Ackie (I expected more from this film than we got; seems like another Respect)
Is there even a tenth contender?
Supp. Actor:
Quan (winning hands down)
Gleeson (would have won any other year)
Keoghan (the kind of role the Academy loves)
Dano (Strong buzz despite lack of Globe, and now he’s a SAG nom)
Redmayne (But he could be this year’s Leto in Little Things or Affleck in Tender Bar; I really don’t want him this high but who’s got the power to knock him out? And don’t say…)
Hirsch (…because where is the precursor love he needs? At least a SAG not would have been nice)
Henry (Goddam I want his chances higher, great actor, great performance and again, milk category)
Pitt (Star power and Globe nod are the only reasons he’s even in this list)
Whishaw (where has he been this ENTIRE awards season?)
Hanks (I thought he’d ride Butler’s coattails considering he’s an Academy favorite but everyone saw that WTF performance for what it actually was)
Supp Actress:
Condon (Unquestionable at this point but not a guarantee for the win)
Bassett (Can’t believe she’s in the number 2 spot but at this point suggesting she won’t be nommed is foolish)
Hsu (People love this movie and all the roles from it)
Curtis (See Hsu)
Buckley (If word of mouth alone got her nominated last year it likely could this year despite missing out on Globes and SAG’s)
De Leon (Unexpected Globe nod and critic wins will help her visibility, but enough for a nom?)
Monae (I’d love to see it but her film is starting to look less and less like a sure thing)
Chau (SAG nod helped but buzz is weakening for this film, not growing, seeing as how Fraser isn’t even guaranteed a win now)
Hoss (Could shock us and get swept in along with Blanchette but it would be a shock)
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Someone brought up in another thread great point: That Sasha seems to believe Top Gun Maverick, a big budget, heavily marketed film waiting two years for release and coming out Memorial Day weekend is somehow a “plucky underdog overcoming the odds to be a hit.”
What happens when Avatar passes Top Gun’s box office take?
That James Cameron! Always the underdog! 🙂
It’s like a Horatio Alger story come to life
“The films that have won both the Critics Choice and the Globe have always won Best Picture”
Not sure what you mean here – this is obviously very far from true. Even if you look at just Globe drama (not also comedy or musical) plus Critics Choice picture, you have The Power of the Dog as an exception, just last year, then the more classic ones of Boyhood, The Social Network, Brokeback Mountain, Saving Private Ryan and Sense and Sensibility. True, if you add the Toronto Audience Award to Globe drama (otherwise, La La Land is an exception, as a Toronto+CC+GG musical or comedy winner) and Critics Choice picture, you have Nomadland, 12 Years a Slave, Slumdog Millionaire and American Beauty, which all won. Then, this rule works. Maybe this is what was meant.
Fabelmans won’t have a Best Film/Best Director nod at BAFTA though, so it’s considerably weaker than the titles you mentioned.
I’ll be happy with any of the leading 3 winning best pic. With Avatar, Black Panther, and Top Gun well represented it should be a good year.
“It might not be the favorite of film critics or the bloggerati, but it’s most definitely The Movie of the Year for a good many people, and very likely the only movie most people will remember from 2022” Let’s be honest this applies to Avatar more than Top Gun
Exactly what I was thinking. Or at least just as much…
Not only that, Top Gun Maverick will be forgotten by the time people look back and realize it’s just a well made sequel that had no right to be upheld so high in presence while a better selling, more ambitious and MUCH better made sequel was being ignored at the awards but SOLD even more tickets showing that MORE “people” watched it.
Absolutely agree. Top Gun is a decent, well made sequel but the fact that people are still trying to sell it as THE big blockbuster achievement of the year after Avatar came out is kinda ridiculous
And even before Avatar, we had The Batman which at least in my humble opinion surpassed the Oscar nominated Joker.
Agreed, I even think Black Panther is a better movie than Top Gun. However I did understand (if not agree with) the argument prior to Avatar coming out since it was the highest grossing film of the year but it doesn’t even have that going for it now.
Unless one of them wins Best Picture, I will have forgotten about them both by St. Patrick’s Day.
Right? As if there were no other popular films released this year other than Top Gun. How does she write a sentence like that with a straight face?
See her substack and get your answer.
I rewatched bits of EEAAO today, and I realized how incredible the screenplay is. I ugly cried all over again. This movie is therapy <3
Yes, this film has connected with a lot of people, especially young people. I didn’t enjoy the film as much as others but the ending really landed well with the emotions and I’m the emotional type.
Actually didn’t think my rant was that bad… but okay. I see it’s been removed. Never is heard a discouraging word I guess… carry on.
I agreed with you that Top Gun: Maverick is an ordinary movie that isn’t anywhere near EEAAO, Banshees or The Fabelmans.
I think that one word of “ordinary” probably does a much better job summing it up than all of my own babbling did. I would just hate to think we’re rewarding something that is ordinary just because it checks some other ancillary boxes… as opposed to other films that are clearly on another (the next) level. I guess other people’s mileage may vary though.
Top Gun: Maverick has no place among the year’s best films. It’s nowhere near most of the films this year. Another film that in my opinion is absolutely mediocre is The Fabelmans. But oh well…
DGA ignored the biggest film of the year. They live in their own bubble, totally detached from reality.
Goddamn skippy they did. The quality was there, the immense popularity is there. Its jusy sometimes groups of people make cementhead decisions like the DGA did today. Shit happens. And these.directors who should’ve known better just nuked the whole shebang on this awards derby.
Avatar 2 is done. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but DGA has disastrously went all in with TGM, which is gonna bite them in the ass in short order. Cameron Jealousy Syndrome, that’s all this is.. Unconscionable. Thought the game plan was to draw viewers to the Oscars. nope.
Oscar ballots are still out for another 9 days.
“It might not be the favorite of film critics…” Top Gun: Maverick has a 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, what are you talking about?
i believe she was talking in terms of critics awards, not the critics reviews, which in this case she is correct. reading is fundamental.
it’s been awarded or nominated in various categories in at least 15 critics groups. I love reading 🙂
Doesn’t make it “the” favorite of film critics, as per the quote. Maybe “a” favorite of theirs, at best…
But you can say that about a bunch of the other films. Basically only four films have landed with critics this year: TAR has won the biggest critics awards; Everything Everywhere has most of the critics awards; Aftersun has topped a few big critics lists; and Banshees has won a few critics prizes.
I don’t disagree with any of that. 🙂
“The Directors Guild showed that the movie industry isn’t going to completely turn their back on the public.”
And they showed that they still care about great cinema..!
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