At this time last year, Oscar-sweeper Everything Everywhere All At Once was in theaters and many awards pundits began forecasting what would be taking home those little gold statues come the following March. While I am not sure we have seen our Best Picture winner again at this point in the year – though Air or Past Lives might become strong contenders – it feels like the right time to start sorting through the upcoming slate of films for 2023. For those who are sickened by this idea, think of this more as a preview of the year than a way-too-early Oscar-piece.

The irony is… this is the latest in the year I’ve ever done my initial predictions. I usually have a list up the week or two after the Oscars. I waited a bit longer this year for a few reasons, and I am kind of glad I did. It gave time for a few more trailers to drop and additional news to come together. Cannes is right around the corner. We will start solidifying things in no time with the summer and fall film festivals. Before the madness, it’s fun to look at what’s coming and take a stab at what appears to be the strongest frontrunners on paper.

With so little information (most films don’t even have trailers yet), how and what do I prioritize when evaluating the Oscars this far in advance? I’m glad you asked.

There are three main components I consider in tandem: synopsis, cast, and director pedigree. It is NOT a perfect science, so however you approach yours, I am sure there is equally broad logic to it. Sometimes you can smell an Oscar movie a mile away (Nomadland, Green Book, Spotlight) and sometimes you can’t (Parasite, CODA, etc.). Just have fun with it, right?

Let’s start with Picture and Director today. I’ll add the acting categories soon.

This is the group that I would not bet against. It isn’t a guarantee by any means. I just think it would be impetuous to leave these films off your initial predictions.

Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)
The Color Purple (Blitz Bazawule)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper)

These four not only make up the top of my Picture list, but also sit at the summit of my Director predictions.

Christopher Nolan has long been one of my favorite directors working today (Inception was my number two film of the 2010s). His track record with Oscar has been pretty solid so far, receiving five nominations. Surprisingly, only one of those nominations came for Director (Dunkirk). Oppenheimer – which tells the story of the famed, titular scientist and his role in the development of the atomic bomb – looks quite marvelous. It has the subject matter and below-the-line craftmanship that used to lead to Oscars. Things have certainly changed a lot over the past three years. While this would have been the type of film that made a lot of sense to predict in the mid-90s, it might be riskier to put it in the catbird’s seat starting out the gate in 2023. I’m still just so blown away by the trailer (no pun intended) and love Nolan’s resume. You couldn’t get me to budge on this being my initial pick to win it all.

Do I need to say more than Martin Scorsese to have you on board with Killers of the Flower Moon? I didn’t think so.

The musical version of The Color Purple was a huge hit on Broadway. The production ran from 2005 to 2008, and earned eleven Tony Award nominations in 2006, before being revived in 2015-2017, winning two Tony Awards upon its return. Spielberg, Quincy Jones, and Oprah lead a powerhouse team of producers behind the film. Fans of Alice Walker’s 1982 Pulitzer Prize-winning novel and/or Spielberg’s 1985 film will be very excited to see what Bazawule brings to the big screen come Christmas time.

Bradley Cooper has been on the cusp of Oscar glory for what feels like forever. With nine Oscar nominations and no wins, Cooper will have four chances to finally bring home the gold. Aside from starring as Leonard Bernstein, Cooper produced, directed, and co-wrote the film. I think this could finally be his year, but you’ll have to wait for my acting predictions for more on that.

When it comes to predicting Director, I follow the old “apple doesn’t fall far from the tree” idiom. In the last eight years, there have been 40 nominations for Best Director. Only two of those didn’t have a corresponding Picture nomination to go with it (Another Round and Cold War). When it comes to these two categories, simpatico is the word.

The rest of my initial Best Picture predictions looks like this: