(UPDATE: As of 12:01 a.m. Pacific time today, the SAG strike has ended after the guild and the studios finally reached an agreement on a new contract. Let the star-studded award campaigns begin!)
The Best Actress race this year is one of the strongest in recent memory. Four powerhouse performances are competing for the win, with many more up for nominations. Whether it will all turn out how we think it will is a different question. Around this time last year, we were certain Cate Blanchett couldn’t lose for TAR. We also assumed both Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis were going to be included. We do tend to get ahead of ourselves and write the ending of the novel instead of waiting for the story to play out.
We did not factor in what would be a grassroots effort to push Andrea Riseborough to a nomination, which resulted in some new rules by the Academy that include not using social media to campaign for someone else’s Oscar win. Or something. There isn’t much the Academy can do if people are determined to push through a nomination or even a win. The Oscars, like Hollywood, are really just one big club, and if members decide to rally behind a certain name, then that will shift the race.
We don’t really know how the voters will decide this race until we see them up against each other vying for the win. The first stop will be the Golden Globes (and no, I don’t count the Gothams because of their gender-neutral situation — what’s the point?), where the performances will be divided into two groups: Drama and Musical/Comedy.
Let’s look at the four frontrunners for the win:
Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon — who would be the first Native American to win the award. She is the center and beating heart of the Martin Scorsese epic, as the film is seen through her eyes. She marries the Leonardo DiCaprio character only to watch every member of her family murdered. When she is the last remaining survivor, she clings to life until the Feds show up and bust the case wide open.
Emma Stone in Poor Things — a vibrant, brilliant turn as a child-minded sex fiend who finds herself along the way to become an empowered woman. It is funny and, at times, moving. She plays a pregnant, abused, oppressed aristocrat who jumps off a building and attempts suicide. She is then brought back to life and her child’s brain is implanted in her body. Chaos ensues.
Carey Mulligan in Maestro — a film I have not yet seen, but by all accounts, it is a bravura performance of a woman married to a gay genius while dying of cancer.
Sandra Huller in Anatomy of a Fall — a breathtaking turn by an underrated actress. Huller plays a writer whose career has mostly been the center of her life until her husband unexpectedly falls out of a building. She is persecuted in a modern-day witch hunt and punished more for her non-traditional approach to motherhood and marriage than for the crime itself.
Of these four, only one has already won an Oscar, and that’s Emma Stone for La La Land. Gladstone and Huller have never been nominated, while Mulligan has been nominated twice for Promising Young Woman and An Education.
When they hit the Globes, Emma Stone’s strongest competition in Musical/Comedy will likely come from Margot Robbie as Barbie. Unless, of course, Fantasia Barrino’s performance in The Color Purple is strong enough to topple both.
In the Drama category, three actresses will compete for the prize, and the win will depend on which of their films is the strongest. All three have a shot here, especially since the Globes are an “international” voting body now. However, I tip the advantage to Gladstone both because I think Killers will be a monster with nominations coming in AND the appeal for Globes voters to make history.
After all, the HFPA is fighting for their survival, and that survival depends on people not thinking they’re racist. Which headline would you prefer:
“Lily Gladstone becomes the first Native American to win Best Actress.”
“Typical Globes chooses the white actress.”
They also might prefer Gladstone to Mulligan or Huller and are voting with their hearts. When voting for people to make history, the lines become blurred between wanting to see history made and their performance. They feel good making history, and that drives their passion.
The Golden Globes usually provides a kind of “dress rehearsal” for the Oscars. If voters like seeing someone win, then it bolsters their chances. If it bothers them, then someone else will win. We’ve seen the stats shifting all over the place of late. Last year, both Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett won at the Globes, but Yeoh won the SAG and that tipped the race in her favor.
Depending on which actress takes the win at the Globes, the narratives will be out in force. And that is when it will be easier to see which way the wind is blowing.
Beyond these four contenders, there is a “fifth slot” that is still to be determined. It seems likely that it would be Annette Bening in Nyad. She’s an industry vet, beloved, and has never won an Oscar. She also has the Netflix machine behind her. Bening gives a refreshingly vanity-free performance, putting herself through rigorous training and wearing makeup that distorts her face significantly. We believe her as Diana Nyad: in fact, Bening almost completely disappears in the role.
Netflix, however, has Carey Mulligan on tap AND Natalie Portman for May December. They’re going to have to choose one.
Screenings for The Color Purple are coming up, so we’ll have to wait and see how it goes. There are obviously other names that are potentially in contention. Here is what Erik Anderson has for Best Actress right now:
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
- Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (-)
- Annette Bening – NYAD (Netflix) (-)
- Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) (-)
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix) (▲)
- Margot Robbie – Barbie (Warner Bros) (-)
- Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▼)
- Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla (A24) (-)
- Greta Lee – Past Lives (A24) (-)
- Natalie Portman – May December (Netflix) (▲)
He sees Bening as locked and Robbie as the straggler. I could see that happening.
I generally apply my rule of three to the Best Actress race:
Likability of Star
Likability of Role
Likability of Film
Last year’s winner, Michelle Yeoh, aced all three. Cate Blanchett, I think, struggled a bit with the last one. TAR was not for everyone. How does that work for the contenders now?
Lily Gladstone — Likability of Star = A+; Likability of Role = A+; Likability of Movie = A/B
Emma Stone — Likability of Star = A+; Likability of Role = A/B; Likability of Movie = A/B
Sandra Huller — Likability of Star = N/A (unknown); Likability of Role = B (it’s complicated); Likability of Movie = A
Carey Mulligan — Likability of Star = A+; Likability of Role = A; Likability of Movie = A
Annette Bening — Likability of Star = A+; Likability of Role = B (it’s complicated); Likability of Movie = B
So you can see right off the bat that Gladstone has the slight edge in this regard.
Let’s run our first poll, shall we?
[totalpoll id=”193915″]
