2026 Oscar Predictions: Ryan Coogler’s Sinners Saves the Day

Sinners has caught on like wildfire. We haven’t seen a film hit quite like this since Oppenheimer and Barbie became Barbenheimer. Sinners is doing it all on its own, without much hype other than word of mouth. It proves my theory that when it becomes a viral sensation on TikTok that’s when you know the movie will be a hit and this one most definitely has become that.

Nothing makes me happier than to see an original film, a purely Ryan Coogler film, land like this and have so many people excited about it. This is what movies were like every week when I was growing up. It won’t make the kind of money Thunderbolts will make because it is not a brand, franchise, IP, or sequel. It springs entirely from the inspiration and passion of the brilliant storyteller. But the story he told has birthed thousands of new stories by movie goers whose minds were just blown in ways they never would be with much of what lands in theaters now.

I read a lot of people, usually those who make their money being defacto PR for the studios, pretending like there isn’t a problem because every so often a movie hits big. But I don’t believe that. Suppose we’re stuck in a place between unwatchable franchise movies and unwatchable highly controlled good people doing good things movies. In that case, I’m not sure movies will be exciting enough to hold the gaze of new generations, but Sinners most definitely has. And we should all be celebrating its success.

Had Sinners been played on Netflix, it probably would have been big—maybe even this big—but going out to the movies means people coming together and enjoying the experience, which is what movies were designed for. So good on Ryan Coogler. I hope his wonderful film and great success can last these next few months as we head into Oscar season.

His film fits the definition of Best Picture of the Year, at least right now. To top it would require a cultural phenom on par with it. Maybe that’s Wicked for Good. Maybe it’s something else. But right now, things are looking up as we head into Summer, thanks to a visionary director and a studio that supported him.

The question, can Sinners win Best Picture? Absolutely, it can. Like Sean Baker and Christopher Nolan, Ryan Coogler is more or less overdue for a win, or he’s getting there. The new Academy is not so beholden to the old way, as we’ve seen with recent winners. Coogler doesn’t make movies to win Oscars, and that’s why Sinners is so good.

ill it win? That’s a harder question to answer right now. But I would advise my fellow Oscar Watchers to listen to the season instead of whispering in the season’s ear and micromanaging the race. Right now, I feel that Sinners has more than enough passionate support and general affection for all involved that it can go the distance.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be a movie that hits voters more strongly, but they all know what is at stake right now. They know the state of the business and what is about to happen to movie theaters if the movies aren’t good enough. An organic hit like this, especially one that was underestimated out of the gate has its Oscar story baked in.

As far as the actors go, there are several of them who could become frontrunners, like Michael B. Jordan playing twins, or Hailee Stanfield, or Delroy Lindo. That’s why it should be a strong contender for Casting. Every one of them is great.

It’s also true that there hasn’t been much else going on and that we’re about to get into the season where every time a new movie is seen, the awards community will decide another movie can win. But there will be no denying that Sinners’ high box office take will mean that the film is propping up a struggling industry.

The main competition, I think, others disagree with me, would be Wicked for Good, coming in with Part Two. If it does as well as the first one, how can they deny it? The other movies we’re all predicting no one has seen yet. Those will be hit and miss.

Exactly one year ago, I wrote the following paragraph:

In looking at two of the early Oscar predictors I see that neither of them have named Kevin Costner’s two-part western, Horizon. I know these guys are young. They don’t remember the old days when the Oscars were BIG. They’re accustomed to seeing the Oscars go small. But I think Oppenheimer’s win last year signaled a pendulum shift. There is no way the Academy can go back to small without killing what’s left of their brand. Unless they want Hollywood to sink like the Titanic.

I was wrong. But that doesn’t mean these guys, Ryan Casselman and the Oscar Expert were right. I also took a snap of their predictions from this time last year:

So he gets three that landed in the top ten – Dune Part 2, Conclave and Nickel Boys.

The Oscar expert and Brother Bro has Dune, Conclave and Nickel Boys too. It just goes to show you how insanely off we all can be just looking at the projects on paper and looking at the studios backing them. Publicists will attempt to influence bloggers to head them in a direction that will help their clients.

It is a reminder, though, how nobody knows anything, especially in May.

Anyway, here are my predictions for this week, as recorded on the Awards Expert app: