2026 Oscar Predictions: Always Be Closing

The next Monday after this one, the first of the fall festivals, will announce its lineup. The Venice Film Festival in all of its glory will launch a few Oscar contenders, if history is any guide. Usually, an Oscar contender will hit Venice first, then swing by Telluride that same weekend, end of August, early September — before making their way to Toronto in September, followed by New York.

In there somewhere are the festivals that help push an already fully engaged Oscar campaign – Santa Barbara, Palm Springs, Middleburg. Bloggers attend these fests to cover the events, take pictures with celebrities, and help keep the hype train a-rolling.

The Oscar game is a sticky, sweaty affair with everyone going through the motions but kind of hating themselves in the morning, especially the “talent” — as they say in the biz. All the parties, all the interviews, all the bullshit. The Q&As. The sales pitch:
ALWAYS BE CLOSING.

That means you have to shake a lot of hands, smile during a photo op or viral video bit or on-camera interview. The outfits, the hair, the makeup, the clickbait, the scandals – it’s all one big bubbling caldron of everything the Oscars should not be. But so far, there is no way out.

I’ll never forget the Robert Redford year when I made a fool of myself screaming frantically while trying to get a photo of Robert Redford and Frances Ford Coppola. The publicist working the Redford beat stopped me. “This isn’t that movie,” he snapped. And a beautiful friendship was born. Seriously, David Pollick is actually my friend, and in this business, there aren’t many of those.

David made me shake Robert Redford’s hand, even though I wasn’t worthy. He was starring in a film called All is Lost. And I’ll never forget, to this day, my best friend saying to me, “Does it have to be called ‘all is lost’?”

Robert Redford refused to run the dog and pony show (see above) because he thought his performance should stand on its own. If voters liked it, they would vote for it. This frustrated the publicists because they knew the game. They know you not only want it — you have to ALWAYS BE CLOSING.

It reminds me of a scene in the long-forgotten film 9 1/2 Weeks when Kim Basinger has to sell the work of an artist who is a recluse. He hates the dog and pony show too and ultimately, she feels guilty for putting him through it.

Why is Venice the first stop? Because the Oscars are Fashion Week now. That’s what they have become, thanks to people like me and the industry I mostly invented. Oscarwatching. It was never supposed to consume everything but the money was too good and pretty soon, everyone had to be involved to keep the ad train rolling. Venice, Telluride, Toronto, New York, AFI are showcases for the tastemakers, with industry voters being among them.

They wouldn’t bother with Santa Barbara or Palm Springs if Oscar voters didn’t live in those towns. When I show you the list of predicted titles for Venice, keep in mind that almost none of them exist to be released to the public. Just as with Fashion Week, they exist to appeal to tastemakers and eventually, to voters.

Here is a side-by-side from Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture and Jeff Wells of Hollywood-Elsewhere.

Barring a surprise here, or a film that bombs unexpectedly, it’s not that hard to see what films might wind their way back to the Oscars. It is too soon to know if any of these will even be announced on Monday, but a few seemed fairly baked into the cake.

Top of that list would be Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly. I feel like I’ve already seen this movie before it even screens, or I know anything about it. George Clooney, Adam Sandler, and a madcap weekend where they “finally grow up.” It’s a Netflix movie, and they know how to push a film into the Oscars. Laura Dern also stars, having won her only Oscar in Marriage Story.

So let’s say Jay Kelly earns gold stars from the attendees in Venice. They love it. Then, perhaps it finds its way to, say, Telluride. George Clooney is a legit movie star, and if he’s at the Patron’s Brunch (the fancy hilltop soiree to which I was disinvited last year), it will send the bloggers into a feeding frenzy to get a photo with their new friend George.

Then, he’ll do a Q&A, he’ll drop in words like “democracy” and “fascism” and how these are scary times, to which all of the Telluride folks will nod somberly before delivering a standing ovation. George Clooney now sails to the top of their lists for Best Actor. He and the movie will be cradled like an egg through the next phase. Heck, Clooney might even start collecting wins from the various critics’ groups, like LA, New York, and the National Society.

And Oscar voters will dutifully jot down Jay Kelly and George Clooney on their ballots. And just like that, an Oscar contender is born. But can you spot the missing piece? If you guess “the public,” you’d be right. Gone are the days when Wonder Boys or Almost Famous had to be screened for the public, and they would decide. That public no longer exists, not for the Oscar race.

There will be films that are organic hits, like Sinners — god willing, Oscar voters will be smart enough to vote for it. But most of them will be curated from what the tastemakers think should be Oscar-worthy. And of course, it helps if the studios are also advertising on their sites. What’s good for the goose…

The best explanation for how the Oscars actually work was Meryl Streep’s monologue in The Devil Wears Prada:

It’s not exactly “from the people in this room from a pile of stuff,” but it’s not far off. It’s the same basic concept of hothouse flowers that find their way into the Oscar race, and most people outside that world scratch their heads and think, HUH? Never heard of it.

Most of the Oscar Best Picture winners starting around 2009, when this madness began, aren’t memorable to the general public. I know them by heart because I’ve been doing this for so long. But try dropping some of the titles to strangers sometime.

“Have you ever seen Birdman”?
“Have you ever seen CODA?”
“Have you ever seen Everything Everywhere All At Once?”

Some films people remember, like Spotlight, Oppenheimer, and Green Book, but it’s rare. Gone are the days when movies like The Godfather won, a film that defined American culture. Even today, people reference The Godfather movies to explain situations in life because it told a universal story about the dark side of human nature. I never thought when I started this site 26 years ago that I would witness the end of the best years of the Oscars’ lives.

Oscar movies now require zero cultural impact. They only have to appeal to the thousands of industry voters who see movies for free. And thanks to the Academy’s ongoing efforts to become more international and prioritize equity, it doesn’t seem like there is any room for the American public in Hollywood or the Oscars anymore. But those who are still fans of the Oscars, and that niche exists, love it no matter what. They get excited about it no matter what. None of the movies are bad. They’re all mostly good. Some of them are even great.

No one will ever change my mind that having the public involved results in better choices, but things have changed in the industry so dramatically, I’m not sure what used to be will ever be again.

The flipside of this is that movies that aren’t “in the conversation” tend to fade into obscurity. Unless they win an award or are nominated for something, they aren’t seen by anyone either. So the Oscar game is essential for the smaller movies with no publicity machine or no stars to promote them. The problem then becomes how to make movies that appeal to Oscar voters?

The answer: you don’t. You make good movies that tell good stories. The Oscars will reward them. For an Oscar movie to land a Best Picture nomination, it needs to be the number one vote for several hundred people. We will find out on Monday what films could be showing. From those predicted to land in Venice, the movies that catch my eye for the Oscars:

After the Hunt
Ann Lee
Jay Kelly
Frankenstein
A House of Dynamite
The Ballad of a Small Player
Bugonia

But who knows which of these will even play Venice. The only one that is confirmed is After the Hunt.

So, I had it almost completely wrong this time last year. Let’s take a look:

Best Picture
~~Sing Sing~~
~~Gladiator II~~
~~Joker: Folie a Deux~~
Dune: Part Two
Conclave
Anora
~~Blitz~~
Emilia Perez
Wicked
~~Hard Truths~~

But I am wondering about: ~~Eden, The Seed of the Sacred Fig~~, Nickel Boys

Best Director
~~Todd Phillips, Joker Folie A Deux~~
~~Mike Leigh, Hard Truths~~
Sean Baker, Anora
Denis Villeneuve, Dune II
Edward Berger, Conclave

But wondering about: Jaques Audiard, Emilia Perez, Luca Guadagnino, Queer, Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Best Actress
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez (unless in Supporting)
~~Lady Gaga, Joker Folie à Deux~~
~~Amy Adams, Nightbitch~~
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Wondering about: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked, ~~Saoirse Ronan, Blitz, Robin Wright, Here~~

Best Actor
Coleman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
~~Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux~~
~~Paul Mescal, Gladiator II~~
~~Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys~~

Wondering about: ~~Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time, Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain~~

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
~~Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson~~
~~Aujanue Elliis-Taylor, Nickel Boys~~
~~Margaret Qualley, The Substance~~
~~Selena Gomez, Emilia Perez~~

Best Supporting Actor
~~Denzel Washington, Gladiator II~~
~~Paul Raci, Sing Sing~~
~~John Lithgow, Conclave~~
~~Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Teacher~~
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
~~Nightbitch~~
~~Joker: Folie a Deux~~

Original Screenplay
Anora
~~Blitz~~
~~Hard Truths~~
Emilia Perez
~~The Seed of the Sacred Fig~~

I will say, whether it means anything or not, all winners present, with the exception of Best Actor.

Still, as with all things, a huge grain of salt. After festival season, as we head into September, our predictions will be much, much easier.

Best Picture