Los Angeles Film Critics Preview and Predictions Contest

This Sunday, the Los Angeles Film Critics will announce their awards. LA has been known to occasionally step out of the zone – they chose The Descendants last year, There Will Be Blood the year No Country was sweeping. It is nonetheless assumed that their winner will still be Zero Dark Thirty. The only possible upset, I figure, will be The Master. One of their members, and writer of the Gold Standard, Glenn Whipp, said on Twitter that he didn’t think the LA critics were going to go for Zero Dark Thirty.

ENTER OUR CONTEST!

What our Oscar wonk, Marshall Flores has to say about them:

Here are some stats and trends that may help in predicting the LAFCAs. On average, a LAFCA Best Film winner wins 3 awards total, compared to an average of 2 total at the NYFCC and the NBR. This is due to a a number of factors: Film and Screenplay are more likely to match at LAFCA (44%) than either NYFCC or the NBR (18% and 33%, respectively); Best Film gets both Director and Screenplay 3.5 times as often than at the NYFCC and the NBR. LAFCA also has additional tech awards (cinematography, production design and original score). At LAFCA, the Best Film winner gets Director 60% of the time, an acting award 51% of the time, and a tech award 27% of the time.

Regarding BP, NYFCC and NBR have matched 10 times during the lifespan of the LAFCA. LAFCA has gone along with its East Coast peers only three times (Schindler’s List, L.A. Confidential, and The Social Network). Of the 7 times LAFCA went a different route with BP, the LAFCA prevailed over NYFCC + NBR at the Oscars three times, all three occurring within the first 10 years of LAFCA’s existence. Since then, however, the coastal divergence has gone in favor of the NYFCC + NBR combo. It must be noted that a film that wins at least two of the LAFCA, NYFCC, and NBR is very likely (90+%) to be Oscar nominated; in fact, the only film to have not done so is Leaving Las Vegas.

The coastal comparison in Director is a bit more hazy. NYFCC and NBR have coincided 12 times in this category since LAFCA was created. LAFCA has gone along with them 5 times; in the 7 cases LAFCA dissented, only once did the LAFCA winner come out on top at the Oscars (Milos Forman over David Lean in 1984). NYFCC + NBR prevailed twice (Jonathan Demme in 1991, The Coens in 2007), and in the other 4 cases an entirely different director won (usually the DGA winner except in 1995, when Mel Gibson won for Braveheart). Like with BP, any director who wins at least two of the three groups is extremely likely (95%) to be Oscar nominated; the only anomaly occurred in 1995 (again!!), when Ang Lee won both the NBR and NYFCC but was inexplicably left off the Best Director lineup at the Oscars.

Sometimes when Picture and Director split, the director goes on to win Best Picture too, like Peter Jackson for Return of the King. Also worth noting, Kathryn Bigelow won Picture and Director from New York and Los Angeles before going on to win the Oscar too.

New York has a much better track record for predicting Best Picture, with 7 matches since 2000, whereas LA has only four.  Though in fairness, matching with Oscar does not appear to be the LA Film Critics’ goal.

My predictions for LAFCA (we’ll do a more thorough list before Sunday):

Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Supporting Actor: Matthew McCoughaughey
Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln
Screenplay: Lincoln (alt. Zero Dark Thirty)
Cinematography: (something completely obscure or) The Master
Production Design: The Master
Score: The Master
Animation: Frankenweenie

The Chart

LAFCA | New York Film Critics | Oscar – Best Picture

*Also nominated for best picture

Here are the members:

The LAFCA members:

STEPHEN FARBER, PRESIDENT
TIM GRIERSON, VICE PRESIDENT
JUSTIN CHANG, SECRETARY
ALONSO DURALDE, TREASURER

ROBERT ABELE
LEONARD KLADY
JOHN POWERS
DAVID ANSEN
ANDY KLEIN
CLAUDIA PUIG
ANDREW BARKER
ROBERT KOEHLER
PETER RAINER
CHARLES CHAMPLIN
CHRISTY LEMIRE
MICHAEL RECHTSHAFFEN
JUSTIN CHANG
EMANUEL LEVY
HARRIET ROBBINS
PETER DEBRUGE
SHERI LINDEN
JAMES ROCCHI
ALONSO DURALDE
LAEL LOEWENSTEIN
BETSY SHARKEY
DAVID EHRENSTEIN
KARINA LONGWORTH
RICHARD SCHICKEL
ANNLEE ELLINGSON
JUSTIN LOWE
HENRY SHEEHAN
STEPHEN FARBER
WADE MAJOR
BRENT SIMON
F.X. FEENEY
LEONARD MALTIN
CHARLES SOLOMON
SCOTT FOUNDAS
WILLARD MANUS
BOB STRAUSS
TODD GILCHRIST
TODD MCCARTHY
ELLA TAYLOR
MIKE GOODRIDGE
MYRON MEISEL
KEVIN THOMAS
JAMES GREENBERG
JOE MORGENSTERN
LUKE Y. THOMPSON
RAY GREENE
AMY NICHOLSON
KENNETH TURAN
TIM GRIERSON
MARK OLSEN
GLENN WHIPP
KIRK HONEYCUTT
JEAN OPPENHEIMER
CHUCK WILSON
MARK KEIZER
HJ PARK
ALYNDA WHEAT