Good As Gold 2024 Oscar Predictions: Barbenheimer Explodes Into the Race

It’s been about a month since I posted my initial predictions for the 2024 Oscars. Since then, films like Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Asteroid City, Past Lives, Barbie, and, of course, Oppenheimer have been released. The WGA strike was underway, but now SAG-AFTRA has joined the union picket lines. The rest of the year seems cloudy, with Warner Bros. considering moving Dune Part 2 to 2024, MGM moving Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers to April of 2024, and festival season lurking around the corner. What will be released to compete with those already in play? Could we have another 2020 on our hands, where COVID-19 pushed many strong contenders to the following year?

The 50th Telluride is just over five weeks away, and I am thrilled to be returning for my seventh time after missing last year. In an abbreviated season, the films that play at Telluride and Venice might have an extraordinary leg up on the competition. The question will be: what films still plan to play there?

This week was a huge week for me at the theater. I was able to catch Oppenheimer and Barbie, as well as finally get around to see Sundance sensation Past Lives. All three films are likely to be in conversation throughout the awards circuit.

The increased exposure provided the right time to update my predictions prior to festival season – when we will know much more about the race and updates will become more frequent.

But first, a few thoughts on the films I saw.

Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer is the rare film that prevails on every single level. Teeming with exquisite visuals (Hoyte Van Hoytema), penetrating dialogue, a hypnotic score (Ludwig Göransson), and many outstanding performances, Oppenheimer surpasses all expectations.

Cillian Murphy delivers a remarkable depiction of the brilliant and enigmatic physicist, grappling with a profound sense of turmoil and deep inner conflict ignited by the catastrophic ramifications of his creation. He’s never been better. The supporting cast shines, led by Robert Downey Jr’s Oscar-worthy performance as Chairman of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Lewis Strauss. Matt Damon, Emily Blunt, Casey Affleck, David Dastmalchian, & Benny Safdie are standout talents in this star-studded Hollywood ensemble.

Nolan’s script is a powerful reminder to learn from history, with its significant scale and relevance. It cautions against repeating WWII’s devastating actions while exploring the profound impact of a world-changing figure. A compelling and substantial lesson for us all to heed. The IMAX presentation, with its cutting-edge facilities and impeccable sound, enhances the already mesmerizing experience. I highly recommend seeing Oppenheimer in this format if possible. The breathtaking sound design is massive and intensifies every moment of the film.

I’m really blown away here. It probably goes without saying that Oppenheimer will be a major Oscar contender across the board – including Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor (Murphy), Supporting Actor (Downey Jr.), Supporting Actress (Blunt), Score, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Makeup… basically all but Lead Actress and Song.

I’ll even go as far to say Oppenheimer is the early favorite to be crowned the best film of the decade. A film for the moment and for history, Oppenheimer is grade-A cinema and an absolute triumph not to be missed.

Greta Gerwig’s Barbie, however, left me a tad cold. My friend, Kevin Taft, said it best, so I will just quote him:

While it has an all-star cast and a more than capable director at its helm, Barbie can’t not just feel like an overly long SNL sketch. It’s a cute joke stretched waaaay too long. The points it tries to make about feminism, misogyny, the patriarchy, and finally about finding oneself, all seem obvious and trite.

It’s hard for me to give an honest take on films like Barbie. While I understand the importance of a film like this for women, it’s a shame that many would want to discount opposing voices like mine simply because we are of the opposite sex. Those people who would discount voices like mine might be missing the entirety of what Gerwig’s film is ultimately about: patriarchy is terrible for everyone, and matriarchy is just as bad.

Feminists are focused on challenging the patriarchy, which systematically oppresses women. There is no place in today’s world for the oppression of anyone based on sex, color, identity, or any other superficial reason. Philosophies like this should go both ways, always. To dismantle something as large and embedded as the patriarchy, you need allies. It’s essential to avoid conveying hate towards any group, even in jest. Telling half the population that you hate them hinders the necessary collaboration needed, and won’t help the cause. That is where I feel Barbie fails as the message film it is trying to be. While Gerwig’s deeper meaning is giving everyone a voice, I worry that the average movie-goer won’t see the forest for the trees, and only take the surface-level message to heart.

The performances are great – especially Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling. Where the film really excels is the production design, cinematography, and costumes. I could see it being nominated for all three categories.

While I am not a fan of Barbie, I am thrilled that it exists. The Barbenheimer phenomenon is one for the ages. Studios will be racing to recreate the magic that brought people out to the cinema in droves this weekend (nearly $250 million in box office). Good for Gerwig and Nolan and all the incredible talent involved. Good for Hollywood. Good for us.

The third film I saw was Celine Song’s enchanting and remarkable directorial debut, Past Lives. This expertly crafted film follows the contemplative story of Nora (Greta Lee) and Hae Sung (Teo Yoo), two childhood friends whose deep connection endures despite the time and distance between them. Nora’s family emigrated from South Korea to the United States when she was very young, and the film beautifully explores the paths they both take until they reunite decades later.

Past Lives is a subtly powerful film that ponders the curiosity of the road not taken and the bittersweet sentiment of unconsummated love. Celine Song’s unhurried narrative style allows the film to unfold with grace. Song orchestrates three outstanding performances from Greta Lee, Teo Yoo, and John Magaro (who plays Nora’s husband). Shabier Kirchner captures some beautiful photography in the film, including the symbolic staircase image above. That shot will likely remain one of my favorites of the year.

Past Lives is a heartrending and deeply felt examination of two souls linked together, that while leaving an enduring impact on each other’s lives, are destined to be apart. While the film often meanders like a hypnotic reverie, there isn’t a bad note in the entire symphony. I look forward to seeing it again when my mind isn’t completely enveloped by Oppenheimer.

All three films will be in contention for Best Picture nominations this year, and are scoring above 90% on Rotten Tomatoes with both critics and audiences.

With that, you can check out my latest Oscar predictions on the Good As Gold page. Picture, Director, Lead Actor and Actress, Supporting Actor and Actress, and Adapted and Original Screenplay have all been reviewed. I will start working on the tech categories after Telluride, when we know a whole lot more about what will be in play this year.