NYFCC Preview

The New York Film critics will announce their awards tomorrow. The last film to screen for them was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was not ready in time and the filmmakers chose not to rush it — as in, what many of us on the web are calling, a needless pressure cooker invented by the New York Film Critics just to get there first. First isn’t always best, as losing my virginity back in 1983 will confirm. One of the problems with the National Board of Review, I might inform my friends in the NYFCC, is that they are premature in their choices for what is best of the year and often reflect back the earlier Oscar scenario.

It was extremely rare for the National Board of Review, the New York Film Critics, the LA Film Critics, the National Society of Film Critics, the Southeastern Film Critics, the Critics Choice, the Golden Globe all to pick one film last year. In all of the years I’ve been on the Oscar beat I’ve never seen it happen. As time wears on, it’s already abundantly clear that the critics were right; the industry was wrong. Of course, as David Fincher himself says, it was apples and oranges. Some people like oranges and some like apples. Some people just have different tastes. It was so rare for a filmmaker to have the nerve to make a movie about an unlikable hero with no redeeming character traits – it hit straight into the heart of human nature to a profound and elegant degree; it remains a perfect film. However, what it lacked was the emotional component. The Oscar race is like a love affair. You fall briefly but passionately in love. A relationship, even if it’s the “right one” without passion feels wrong somehow. So it’s no wonder the PGA, the DGA and the Academy all voted with their hearts last year. But that was a story that’s already been told. 2011’s hasn’t.

As we move into the first critics awards of the year, a premature expression of the year’s best, we are aware that, right now, nobody knows anything. We are mostly sure that the critics will split up all over the place and not align the way they did last year. Why bother if the industry is going to go a different way?

The Oscar story is never fully told until films open to the public. This, despite the critics and bloggers who believe that it can be told in a vacuum – it can’t. Movies have to be living and breathing things to see if they work or not. You can design the best ship ever, an unsinkable ship, with every attention to detail a perfect 10. You can have all of the best reviews imaginable – and still, when the ship is set to sea it has to be able to move on the water, not hit icebergs. This was why The King’s Speech, ultimately, did so well – it sailed, by god, it sailed.

One film that is undeniably surging right now is Martin Scorsese’s unexpected hit, Hugo. It, along with Moneyball, The Artist and The Descendants, feels like a formidable Best Picture contender, easily of one of 2011’s best. In glancing over the New York Film Critics’ member list, Hugo is one of their most favored films, earning positive reviews across the board, with only the mildest of detractors. Ditto The Artist. Both films could hit big with the NYFCC. Although they all praised Bennett Miller’s exceptional Moneyball, it might not be “fresh” or exciting enough for them to choose as their number one film of 2011. The Descendants had two major detractors – Stephanie Zacharek and Dana Stevens from Slate, who panned it. The other possibility is Terrence Malick’s Tree of Life. The members who reviewed Tree of Life mostly loved it. And finally, Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris should be a force to reckon with.

While the focus on the NYFCC over the years has been that they are the most influential of the critics groups. I don’t know if this is true anymore, and certainly might not be true this year since they wanted so desperately to be first. Being first isn’t always the best course of action – being right is better. And when I say right, I don’t mean they predict or influence what the Academy will choose. Right, as in, they pick what can be held up in years to come as truly the best film of 2011. After all, if the critics only cared about matching Oscar their own reputation would be as tarnished as the Academy’s.

However, let’s just assume that the NYFCC tomorrow DOES make an impact on the Oscar race. This year is wide open, so anything they choose is going to have an effect both on how other critics groups vote, and how certain films and performances are perceived. If they choose an obscure name for actor, actress, or the supporting categories, it can sometimes catapult that person into the race – or sometimes it’s just too obscure and that person will never see any Oscar heat.

I have predicted Tree of Life on Gold Derby.  But I’m going to change my prediction today to say that Hugo wins the New York Film Critics and that Martin Scorsese wins Best Director.  As for actor and actress, if it were me, I would pick Michael Fassbender for Shame and Viola Davis for The Help.  And therefore, I’ll predict those as well.  However, I also think Brad Pitt and George Clooney are deserving, along with Woody Harrelson, Damien Bichir for A Better Life, Michael Shannon for Take Shelter, Gary Oldman for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy.  Fassbender, Pitt a close second, tower over the competition.

Here is our chart – please let me know what you think will win. Any changes from last week?

LAFCA | New York Film Critics | Oscar – Best Picture

*Also nominated for best picture

Thelma Adams, US Weekly
John Anderson, Newsday
Melissa Anderson, Time Out New York
David Ansen, Newsweek
Dwight Brown, NNPA & UPSCALE
Richard Corliss, Time
Mike D’Angelo, Esquire Magazine
David Denby, New Yorker
Karen Durbin, Elle Magazine
David Edelstein, New York Magazine
David Fear, Time Out New York
Marshall Fine, Star Magazine
Owen Gleiberman, Entertainment Weekly
J. Hoberman, Village Voice
Andre O’Hehir, Salon
Stuart Klawans, The Nation
Lou Lumenick, New York Post
Joe Morgenstern, Wall Street Journal
Vincent Musetto, New York Post
Peter Rainer, Christian Science Monitor
Rex Reed, New York Observer
Joshua Rothkopf, Time Out New York
Leah Rozen, People Magazine
Andrew Sarris, New York Observer
Richard Schickel, Time
Lisa Schwarzbaum, Entertainment Weekly
Kyle Smith, New York Post
Steve Snyder, New York Sun
Dana Stevens, Slate.com
Peter Travers, Rolling Stone
Elizabeth Weitzman, New York Daily News
Armond White, NY Press
Stephen Whitty, Newhouse Newspapers
Stephanie Zacharek, Salon.com