Best Picture – Boyhood
Best Director – Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Best Actress – Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Best Actor – Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Supporting Actress – Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor – J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Screenplay – Birdman
Best Ensemble – Birdman
Best Documentary – Life Itself
Best Foreign Film – Two Days, One Nights
Best Animated Feature – The LEGO Movie
Best Cinematography – Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Best Use of Music = Get on Up
Best Debut Director winner – Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Breakthrough Performance – Jack O’Connell, Unbroken
New York Film Critics Online Top 10
Birdman
Boyhood
Guardians of the Galaxy
Imitation Game
Most Violent Year
Mr. Turner
Selma
Theory of Everything
Under the Skin
Whiplash
Steven, I mean I agree. I loathe the use of “lock” as much as “snub” for that reason. Use of either shows (in my opinion) a lazy understanding of the principles of the awards process.
Benutty, with that argument Bigelow and Affleck were more locks than Zeitlin, especially Bigelow since Zero Dark Thirty won best picture and best director from the NBR, NYFCC, Washington and Boston critics, which is where we’re currently at right now. Nobody is safe even at this game.
Given how well it is doing so far, I think the next rung on the ladder is whether Boyhood can survive the predictable round of backlash that will be heading its way as the frontrunner.
Where is the evidence to support that Rosamund Pike and Felicity Jones are more “locked” than Marion Cotillard? Neither has a critics win under their belt–they didn’t even show up in the runner-up for any of them!!! Cotillard on the other hand has more wins than Moore, and is probably only second to JK Simmons in number of total personal accolades so far.
I feel like I’m watching an entirely different race than most of you.
“that would be giving Redmayne and Cumberbatch (who is universally loved… Khan! Sherlock! now, Dr. Strange!) the edge over Keaton.”
I’m thinking of 2 “Oscar” movies that had late winners: The King’s Speech and The Artist. To me it’s highly likely that some of the winners rode the curtails to the Oscars on the wave of popularity with the other winners. Dujardin didn’t win many awards until the guilds and Oscars, I feel if The Artist as a whole wasn’t as popular and not winning many of the awards then Dujardin wouldn’t have won best actor. If Colin Firth wasn’t winning so many best actor trophies then King’s Speech wouldn’t have won best picture and best director. Imitation Game and Theory of Everything, so far, haven’t won any best actor, best picture, best director or best screenplay trophies. That makes it extremely hard for Cumberbatch and Redmayne to win best actor over somebody like Keaton who has a movie either winning, or being a runner up, for many categories. That’s just my thought anyway.
“Marion Cotillard is getting nominated. End of discussion.”
Sally Hawkins and Happy-Go-Lucky say hi. But really I wish her the best of luck.
I can’t see the Academy giving Best Picture to Birdman. But we can clearly see The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game winning,
Why?
that would be giving Redmayne and Cumberbatch (who is universally loved… Khan! Sherlock! now, Dr. Strange!) the edge over Keaton.
You think that Cumberbatch is universally loved within the Academy and Michael Keaton isn’t? Anyone who is in the Academy who is around my age, 40, probably grew up on Michael Keaton movies. Anyone older probably worked with him. Unless he’s the biggest jerk in the world, which I’ve never heard anything of the sort, he should be favored regardless of performance. But the performance is great.
Cotillard is no where near lock status: The common assumption is that there are four almost-locks in best actress this season: Pike, Moore, Jones and Witherspoon. That leaves one spot. Winning a couple of critics’ prizes enhances Cotillard’s chance, but they hardly alter it dramatically. She is up against a relatively hard-hitting competitor in Swank, then there’s a strong YA candidate in Woodley (they will have to nominate her eventually) and Adams, an Academy darling if there ever was one (how did she merit five nominations??). Cotillard is a very well-respected (even admired) presence in Hollywood, and if anybody could make a leap from a small Belgian movie to the best actress Oscar ranks it’s someone like her, but it’s going to take a lot of effort and peoples’ perceptions have to be altered, where eschewing Academy mainstays like Swank and Adams in favor of a foreign language performance, will not seem like a big leap of imagination. IF she keeps on winning prizes (I doubt it, the regional prizes outside of LA and NY rarely strays that far from the established comfort zone), she will force herself into the field, but she could soon be erased from voters’ minds if she can’t keep it up for the next couple of weeks. So, yeah, much more than the other six or seven contenders, Cotillard relies on end-of-year accolades to stand a chance.
Cotillard is a lock for the nom
There’s not a shred of evidence to support this notion.
Things we’ve learnt…
Boyhood is completely locked for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Supp. Actress (cathegory fraud?). Arquette and Screenplay seems guaranteed wins, already, to me, but the Picture & Director combo, it is far from being anything else than “possible” till the DGA, SAG and GG appear.
Animated is getting interesting in a 3-way race. Lego, Princess and Dragon seem locked for a nom… Lego still has the advantage, in my opinion, as it is a likely multi-nominee, with possible noms at Sound departments, Song and Original Screenplay, giving it the edge. But if it only gets the Animated Feature nom, the race would be wide open and any name can be at the envelope.
Cotillard is a lock for the nom, but I really doubt she would be getting her 2nd Oscar at Lead Actress, again, in a foreign speaking role. Cotillard’s strenght is damaging more Moore’s americans enemies than her chances. Witherspoon is copycating last year’s Robert Redford’s road to even lose the nom… She really needed to start getting the Film Critics flame for her campaign to catch fire.
Actor is still wide open, despite Keaton getting an inch above. The problem is, the fact that most time, Picture and Lead Actor come in the same pack. I can’t see the Academy giving Best Picture to Birdman. But we can clearly see The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game winning, that would be giving Redmayne and Cumberbatch (who is universally loved… Khan! Sherlock! now, Dr. Strange!) the edge over Keaton.
Simmons seems he could really be writting his acceptance speech. Him, not winning, would be a shock as big as if Heath Ledger wouldn’t have won for “The Dark Knight”, at this point.
So, in my opinion, the race is narrowing to…
Picture: Boyhood, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything and Selma
Director: Linklater (with options for all 3 other BP contenders, but Linklater is an inch above the rest)
Actor: Redmayne, Cumberbatch, Oyelowo and Keaton (but Keaton, I only see it, if Boyhood wins BP)
Actress: Moore. (side shot for Cotillard)
Supp. Actor: Simmons
Supp. Actress: Arquette (cathegory fraud)
Original Screenplay: Boyhood (this is Selma’s and Birdman’s biggest weakness, having to face maybe the most obvious Oscar of the night, I doubt they would be avoiding giving Linklater a direct, personal Oscar, as reward for his project).
Adapted Screenplay: completely open… but with an advantage to BP co-frontrunners The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game
Animated: Lego Movie vs. Princess Kaguya, with outside shot for How to Train Your Dragon 2… but Lego has the edge at the Oscars
“If Marion Cotillard is nominated at SAG and the Golden Globes then I’ll feel very confident that she’ll be nominated at the Oscars.”
Jeff-
“Rust and Bone,” remember? She was nominated for a Golden Globe (Drama), Screen Actors Guild, and even a BAFTA (Best Leading Actress) yet the Academy ignored her performance.
My “premature” and fearless Best Actress nominees prediction:
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Hilary Swank, “The Homesman”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”
If Marion Cotillard is nominated at SAG and the Golden Globes then I’ll feel very confident that she’ll be nominated at the Oscars.
If she isn’t nominated at the Globes and SAG (especially SAG) then it’s not going to happen.
Marion Cotillard is getting nominated. End of discussion.
Thinking that Cotillard is winning because she was great in two films that were very well received.
Moore was also great in two films this year, but both films have not been as well-received. “Two Days …”, in particular, got raves/masterpiece ink while “Still Alice” has gotten “nice, sensitive, well-acted, tv movie”- like ink.
I think that is why shes pulling out ahead of Moore a bit in these critic awards (the critics favor Cotillards films. Look, even The Immigrant won a cinematography award already).
My worry is that Selma is being rejected by the critics due to their perception of it within the awards race. I think they see it as a film with too much innate Oscar buzz, and are thus choosing to overlook it and favour less likely contenders. That’s not an appropriate analysis, though, since it’s nothing of the sort – it’s one of those films, great reviews aside, that could certainly use significant support from critics.
MARION, MARION, MARION! YES!
“Two Days, One Night” is the best film I’ve seen this year and Marion is incredible, mesmerizing, amazing, just beyond…
Maybe this year? She was ignored for “Rust and Bone”.
Let’s compare ”Selma” and ”12 Years a Slave,” both historical dramas about race in America. At this point last season, ”12 Years” had already won a Best Director from the New York Film Critics; a Best Supporting Actress from L.A. Film Critics, and Best Film, Actor and Supporting Actress from the New York Fillm Critics Online. (Update: Just moments ago, Ava DuVernay just won a New Generation Award for ”Selma” from the L.A. Film Critics.)
As for ”The Imitation Game,” I’m not only talking about Best Picture, but also a possible win for Benedict Cumberbatch as Best Actor (or a runnerup).
Well, given that Arquette will be in Suipporting for the Oscar, I guess in some back-handed way, Julianne did win for Lead Actress!!
WW
The Critics Phase of the Race tends not to be the peak time for a film like The Imitation Game : The King’s Speech won maybe one BP award against the 20+ The Social Network got…and we all know how that ended.
What a great day for the ”B” movies: ”Boyhood” and ”Birdman.”
Wow, J.K. Simmons has swept L.A. Film Critics, Boston Society & N.Y. Film Critics Online.
Conversely, I’m surprised that Julianne Moore didn’t win any of the Best Actress trophies today.
Meantime, Dan Gilroy (”Nightcrawler”) gets honored by the N.Y. Film Critics Online and Boston Society for his filmmaking debut.
Among these 3 critics groups, is anyone else surprised that ”The Imitation Game” and ”Selma” have been (so far) … shut out?
Very cool about the Eddie Redmayne Best Actor win for Theory of Everything, and I’m so impressed by Marion Cotillard’s big wins and Patricia Arquette!
Of all these awards, I’m particularly happy about Cotillard and Birdman’s screenplay (way underestimated so far by the critics).
Cotillard is by far the biggest surprise of the awards season so far. She will probably miss that critical SAG nod this week, unfortunately.
I never said she’d win because she already has an Oscar and moore has none buti think her chances of getting nominated are much higher now than many of the original proposed 5. After last year we learned there’s no such thing as a lock anymore lol but sometimes you have to make bold guesses
@ SIMON WARRASCH I’m there with you man! I also think that she may score a nomination (I’m very hesitant to claim something like that yet though). What can I say, she seems to be the clear critics darling right now indeed. Let’s hope she won’t get snubbed from The Oscars AGAIN.
I sometimes wonder how much critics awards really matter. In 2003, for instance, Julianne won the liion’s share of them for Best Actress and lost to Nicole anyway.
Boyhood is laying waste.
@ STERGIOS
I so agree with you and your comment! Me too! I’m over the moon right now!
Julianne Moore will propably win the Oscar in the End but Marion Cotillard is so far the clear Critics Darling!
Right now we have:
Marion Cotillard (NY, NYOFC, Boston, Boston Online) + (NY, Boston)
Julianne Moore (NBR)
Every time i read that Marion Cotillard has won another Price for her remarkable Performance in “Two Days, One Night” my heart is flipping out! Thank you soo very much!! : ) : )
Cotillard is definitely getting nominated. Even if the globes and sags completely snub her to make room for their stars.. she’s garnered enough attention now to make oscar voters actually go out and see her movie and want to at least nominate her. I’m sure of it.
@Phantom I guess that’s how she rolls.
What makes me worry about that ‘surefire JM Oscar’ is that Still Alice is exactly the kind of little, well-received indie drama critics groups tend to embrace. I mean if critics won’t, what can we expect from the big ones ?
P.S. Marion Cotillard unexpectedly crashing the Best Actress race with a French language film, stealing the thunder of a highly acclaimed film legend playing an Alzheimer’s patient…sound familiar ?
Yay! Birdman for Ensemble!
MARION AGAIN??? Am I dreaming or what? I mean, seriously, I’m over the moon right now! She keeps on sweeping the awards season so far with her incomparable performance in Two Days, One Night and from the bottom of my heart, I wish she will keep on doing that, even if I still highly doubt that (Julianne Moore is the clear frontrunner). There’s no question though in regards to which is the best female performance of the year and that’s what truly matters. Cotillard practically rewrites the rules of acting through her already legendary performance as Sandra Bya in Two Days, One Night. “You put up a good fight Sandra” (anyone who saw the film will understand what I’m saying).
Holy shit Eddie Redmayne.
Marion’s kicking ass and taking names.
WHOAH, Cotillard has won 4 out of the 5 awards so far. So unexpected…SO well-deserved. LAFCA will be interesting!
I can honestly say I haven’t seen any of these movies. It’s getting a bit tiring to have these award shows pile up on each other and nobody (like me) has seen not a one movie. I don’t even know the actors.
I did see the Homesman today. I will wait for a thread to open for discussion before I pass on my opinion. But I’m not so sure that Hillary Swank is a lock for best actress.
There are so many run-offs, I’m having a psychotic break!
OH MAH GAWD! so many award precursors today, I am having an orgasm. HAHAHA