Best Actor is often the strongest link to Best Picture in the Oscar race. [Puts on sociologist’s hat] The reason is that males are the default protagonists. Men like to watch men, and women do too. The same is not true for women as central characters. Women often hate other women and men often hate women. In general, it is the rare male who can inspire that same kind of irrational hate. [Takes off sociologist’s hat, puts on Oscar blogger hat].
The frontrunner for Best Actor right now appears to be Anthony Hopkins in The Father. It’s quite something to watch a really good actor deliver such a complex, deeply layered performance as an old man who is in severe cognitive decline. I just went through this with my own father and spent an entire year visiting him. So much of it rang true to me and I imagine if I could have seen it from my dad’s perspective it would have looked a lot like this movie. And it isn’t just Hopkins that makes this one of the best films of the year, it’s the writing, the directing, and the entire ensemble cast, especially Olivia Colman as his daughter. Where Hopkins was charming as the Pope last year, in The Father he showcases what he can REALLY do as an artist with his eyes and his face and his body.
I once heard a director describe what it was like to work with Hopkins — it might have been Jonathan Demme who directed The Silence of the Lambs. He said that Hopkins had such a professional relationship with the camera lens — his eyes always knew how to play to the lens to transcribe his internal emotional life. He got it that the connection is the eyes. And if you can nail that relationship — eye and camera lens — you can nail the performance. Humans are always searching the eyes for what people are feeling and Hopkins has mastered it.
His main challenger, as of a few days ago and right now at least, appears to be Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom — moved from Best Supporting into Best Actor. But not many if any people have seen the movie, so predicting him now is bouncing off the idea that he’s a beloved actor who died much too soon and that this role and performance should be good enough to earn him the prize. And that might be the case. In supporting, it would be a slam dunk but going up against Hopkins is a tough one.
Other potential names that will compete include Sacha Baron Cohen and/or Eddie Redmayne for The Trial of the Chicago 7 (they do not seem like lead performances to me, however and in my opinion Frank Langella is the standout). If this was an actual contest of good work, Joe Keery would be considered for Spree. But I am not holding my breath on that one. There are other performances coming and still films we have not seen. This story also isn’t told.
For Best Actress, Frances McDormand appears to be at least one of the frontrunners, until we see The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Respect, or Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Once we do, we’ll have a better idea of this race. Also coming in strong, Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman, Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of Woman, Michelle Pfeiffer in French Exit, Kate Winslet for Ammonite, among others.
All eyes will be on the Best Director race with such an abundance of films this year directed by women. Last year’s uproar over no woman being nominated means that this year there will be a hard push to get a woman in.
The problem is, of course, as with last year’s Best Director race, if there are too many choices it will be harder to narrow them enough to build a consensus. By the time critics got around to Greta Gerwig for Little Women as their consensus pick, it was much too late as there were many different choices last year for women. That will be the same this year. So, people will say “That’s sexist! Why does there only have to be one woman?” And answering that question is tricky. You have to indicate whether you want the honest answer or the answer that will placate people who want things to not be the way they are.
The honest answer: voters pick the movies they like and most of the time those movies are directed by men. You can figure out why that is however you want — whether it’s that men are more visual, supposedly, with notable exceptions, or whether they make movies men like more and since there are more male voters they respond accordingly. Whatever it is — if you ask them to pick their five favorites 95% of the time they’re going to pick movies directed by men. Unless you specify that they have to adjust their preferences for a different reason, which is entirely possible.
The other answer would be: The Academy and industry and film critics and audiences are deep-down too sexist to take women seriously.
After doing this a long time I have seen films directed by women that have risen to the level of best — Jane Campion’s The Piano, Ava DuVernay’s Selma, Sofia Coppola’s Lost in Translation, etc. But if you have a year where there are ten or twenty films by women and they’re all pretty good but none has risen to the level of greatness — well, then if you want one to be chosen for the sake of breaking ground for women then you have to settle on a consensus pick.
Four films, so far, are directed by women and are good enough to make it in. The question is, how many will? Does the Best Actor rule apply here? I would list them as:
Nomadland – Chloe Zhao
One Night in Miami – Regina King
On the Rocks – Sofia Coppola
Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
This would be a great year to have a separate category for women but there is no way anyone will go for this. It sits on the “popular film category” island as totally off limits. But I don’t see why. There is a chance that one or two at most will likely make it into Best Director and why not afford more women that opportunity?
Of these, Zhao is the most likely to earn a spot. But it will be interesting to see how critics weigh Nomadland and One Night In Miami. I suspect they will try to boost one or the other but I do not know which one that will be at the moment. I also would watch out for Promising Young Woman which is an incredible debut feature. It’s creepy and unique and honestly, it haunted me for days after I saw it.
There are more films by women coming down the pike — Respect, directed by Liesl Tommy; I’m Your Woman, directed by Julia Hart; and there was already The Glorias, directed by Julie Taymor. In general, though, at least for now these seem to be the strongest.
Predictions
Our job is to find Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Director (at this stage). Best Picture is the tree and the other categories are branches. Best Actor and Best Director have the most influence on Best Picture, but every so often, Best Actress does too.
With that, here are the very early predictions for Best Picture:
Nomadland – Best Actress, Best Director
Mank – Best Actor, Best Director
The Father – Best Actor, maybe Director
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Best Actor, maybe Director
News of the World – Best Actor, maybe Director
One Night in Miami, maybe Director
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Supporting Actor
And perhaps some of these:
Minari
The Outpost
Promising Young Woman
On the Rocks
Respect
Da Five Bloods
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Hillbilly Elegy
The Prom
Check out Best Picture at [AwardsWatch] [Gold Derby] [Awards Ace] [Awards Radar]
Best Actor
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Gary Oldman, Mank
And then two from among:
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Delroy Lindo, Da Five Bloods
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Trevante Rhodes, the United States vs. Billie Holiday
Check out Best Actor at [AwardsWatch] [Gold Derby] [Awards Ace] [Awards Radar]
Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of Woman
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
And then one of the following:
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Check out Best Actress at [AwardsWatch] [Gold Derby] [Awards Ace] [Awards Radar]
Best Director
David Fincher, Mank
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Florian Zeller, The Father
And two from:
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Spike Lee, Da Five Bloods
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Check out Best Director at [AwardsWatch] [Gold Derby] [Awards Ace] [Awards Radar]
The bottom line: We know nothing right now. Next to nothing. We might have a vague idea of what each other thinks but that’s about it. There are many different narratives taking shape but they are simply driven by people like me. As of yet, there is no there there. But hey, what else are we going to do with our time?
Or, can we just agree the facts – women aren’t given anywhere near the same opportunities to direct. So any poll of ‘who makes more visual films, men or women?’, or even ‘who makes films that men like more, men or women?’ are flawed from the get go.
This isn’t wokery, it’s simple truth. When women are making 50% of films – or, hell, let’s just go for 25% to make it even conceivable in the near future – then we can take a look and have a fair(er) conversation about who makes more visual films.
Respect has apparently been moved now to summer 2021.
Everyone in The Trial of the Chicago 7 will go supporting.
Breaks my heart that Michelle Pfeiffer gets so close to a nomination in various years, but ends up missing out
SUPPORTING
1983 – Scarface
1988 – Dangerous Liaisons
1992 – Batman Returns
2002 – White Oleander
2007 – Hairspray
2017 – Murder on the Orient Express
LEAD
1989 – The Fabulous Baker Boys
1992 – Love Field
1993 – The Age of Innocence
1999 – The Deep End of the Ocean
2000 – What Lies Beneath
2009 – Cheri
For the record I still wouldn’t rule out a comeback nomination this season for French Exit. It won’t be her Still Alice but it could still be her Albert Nobbs.
Most of the polarizing reviews of French Exit are claiming that despite its flaws, Pfeiffer’s performance is “Oscar-worthy”. That is what lacking from other frontrunners McDormand, Kirby, Mulligan and Winslet. I think she’s still in this. Of course, Sony Pictures campaigning will help a lot given that they are up against Fox Searchlight, Netflix and Focus Features.
Don’t forget about Soul!
My thoughts on the chances for the two “contenders” I’ve seen so far:
Nomadland will not win Picture and McDormand will not win Actress. Zhao might be on track to win Directing unless Fincher is undeniable. Probably a threat in Cinematography and Score, maybe Editing. Might be deemed too “artsy” and get snubbed across the board.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 I don’t think is winning anywhere, and will struggle to get nominated. Langella should earn a well-deserved nomination and could contend for the win but I don’t quite see it.
I think Chicago 7 is being nominated for Screenplay, and that while I think Rylance is the MVP, the one with the best shot is Sacha Baron Cohen, given the range (and success) he’s shown on 2020 (plus, he is really, really good in the film and 2nd best in my book). Langella has a 1-note character, and that works against him, while both Cohen’s and Rylance’s have a wider range of emotions throughout the film… Redmayne’s the performance I liked the least, and I don’t understand why there would be Awards buzz for this.
Langella is a little bit one-note, but he also fully inhabits his character (in a way none of the others do, I think, or perhaps maybeee Rylance but his hair is a distraction), and his Judge Hoffman is the centerpiece of the film. Not a huge fan of the whole thing tbh, but the parts that worked were working because of Langella imo.
oh, Langella is great, but his role isn’t a show of range as Cohen’s, who is funny and poignant when he has to be. Also, his work as dramatic actor may surprise anyone who haven’t seen him in the “The Spy” miniseries… comedian going drama as supporting… that can go really well… and thanks to Borat 2, he is one of the entertainers of the year. I think he has the edge, given all factors. Out of the 3, Cohen, Rylance and Langella, I think Cohen is the only one that could actually win.
Agreed on both films except for Langella being deserving. In my opinion he was somehow even worse than Redmayne, failing to in any way express what are the motivations of that character (bias, senility, anger or something else). I feel like the best version would have been something where he would have played these in phases or multiple of these at the same time in an expressive way. Now he’s just pretty much playing nothing.
My MVP of that movie was Keaton. The movie only seemed to work completely when he was on screen because he understood the tone of the movie that would make it interesting and was willing to play to it. Rylance is solid as well, though, even if it feels like the movie doesn’t quite have time for what he’s doing
I sort of liked how Hoffman was just an unexplainable, all-powerful machine of injustice. I think that dynamic is what made the film at least somewhat enjoyable, indeed that was the only conflict that ever resonated emotionally throughout the film. There were way too many bits about the characters involved in the trial that just didn’t work at all. The courtroom dynamic did (sometimes).
Hillbilly Elegy is not an actual film, correct?
You guys, we have to stop with the Prom and Hillbilly Elegy. They aren’t happening in any way!
This year seems very drama-heavy, to the point there could be no overlap between Globe Comedy and Oscar BP nominations, unless Ma Rainey were to go Comedy (???), as it seems more lighthearted than other contenders, in which case it would be the clear frontrunner in that category. The Prom and On the Rocks seem like shoe-ins for the Globes and I hope the lack of competition will help Copperfield and/or Emma sneak in, though I’m guessing Borat 2 is a safer bet.
Borat 2 seems already locked for GG nominations at Picture, Lead Actor and Lead Actress in Comedy/Musical. Is looking good for Oscar nomination at Adapted Screenplay (as the first one), and I think that if campaign works, Maria Bakalova could be – deservingly, she gives one of the most fearless comedic performances ever, by an actress – nominated in Supporting. I would actually like see her winning. Given that she seems to have a great shot at critics mentions as “breakthrough”, maybe NYFCC could do a Cameron Díaz / There’s something about Mary and give her Best Actress or Supporting Actress, and start rolling the ball for Oscar.
I liked Eddie Redmayne and Mark Rylance from Trial of Chicago 7, but Cohen and Mateen would be ok with me for Supporting Actor. I agree with Maria Bakalova. Unknown from Bulgaria with some independent movies and plays the flute is a great biography.
What % of those movies are Netflix?
To those who have already seen The Father, how does it look in the tech department ? It is looking very good for nominations in top categories such as picture (and probably director), actor and actress (not sure if Colman will be lead or supporting though) and adapted screenplay so that would be already 5 major nominations. Any chance of more ? Editing, cinematography, set design, score ?
As for Best Actor, I wouldn’t rule out Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield) just yet, either. I think it was a (to date) career-best performance and the film received strong reviews, too.
Also, we still have SO many unseen question marks that could completely change the entire season : News of the World, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, The United States vs Billie Holiday, The Life Ahead, Hillbilly Elegy, Mank, The Prom, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Midnight Sky, Let Them All Talk, Cherry. I could still see any of these films go nowhere and all the way just the same, yet all are very obviously under the radar for now. It will be interesting to see what will surprise, obviously Mank is the most promising of the bunch but for example The Midnight Sky and / or Cherry could easily just come out of nowhere and then all the way to the Oscars for all we know.
We’ll know soon enough.
My predictions for the top 6 categories
93rd annual oscar predictions
Best picture
The father
Mank
Ma Rainey’s black bottom
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
One night in Miami
Trial of the Chicago 7
Achievement in directing
Regina king for one night in Miami
David fincher for mank
Paul greengrass for news of the world
Aaron Sorkin for the trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao for nomadland
Best Actress
Viola davis in ma Rainey’s black bottom
Frances McDormand in nomadland
Michelle pfeifer in French exit
Meryl Streep in The prom
Kate winslet in ammonite
Best Actor
Ben Affleck in The way back
Anthony Hopkins in The father
Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods
Bill Murray in On the rocks
Gary Oldman in Mank
Best supporting actor
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey
Tom Burke in mank
Sacha baron cohen in the trial of Chicago 7
Leslie Odom jr. in one night in Miami
Laiketh Stanfield in Judas and the black messiah
Best supporting actress
Glenn close in hillibilly elegy
Lily Collins in mank
Olivia Colman in the father
Natasha lyyone in United States vs. billy holiday
Amanda seyfried in mank
1. Hopkins
2. Boseman
3. Oldman
4. Lindo
5. Yeun
1. Davis
2. Adams
3. McDormand
4. Kirby
5. Loren
I see Hopkins and Davis as likely winners as well, at least right now I know the Boseman narrative will be very tempting and wouldn’t be shocked if he won. I had thought he was in supporting… but I am not up to date.
Regardless of who gets nominated for Best Actress, Maria Bakalova absolutely deserves a Supporting Actress nomination for Borat. A brilliant, funny, and fearless performance.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a5867e818f4362d4afcbeec4f970b91c79a6abe4178f48fc8188f72a5587b117.jpg
I can easily see some Fim Critics Groups pushing her with awards or runner-up mentions in that category. Bold and fearless breakthrough performance.
please have the Oscar clip being her speech at the Republican Women meeting.
At risk of being “that guy” I think we need to be taking Soul a lot more seriously in best picture than we have been. In a slimmer than usual year like this and given what it is doing and the reactions to it this far I feel like we have to at the very least consider it! Also does anyone know Colman’s campaign – lead or supporting? A lot of places have her supporting but i haven’t actually heard any definitive answer on how she is being campaigned
I am exciting to watch a lot of these movies, especially Mank. I am hoping that Colman does not beat Close again in supporting actress; that’s a little too “Swank beats Bening” for me.
I do think it is quite dependent on what happens with Hillbilly Elergy – the trailer isn’t doing a lot to convince me that it will be good or an Oscar contender and Ron Howard has been so hit and miss lately but I really hope I’m wrong. Also given all of the roles Close has had I’d be a bit sad if she finally won for something and unelegant and more so unsubtle as this looks… But a win is a win, she should have one already and I’ll be delighted for her no matter what she wins it for!
I’d rather her win for something inelegant than not at all. After all, a lot of great actors and actresses don’t win for their best work. For example, I would rather Grace Kelly and Leonardo DiCaprio be Oscar winners for Rear Window and Wolf of Wall Street.
Oh I absolutely agree. Don’t get me wrong, as I said I’ll be delighted for her no mauretania what she wins for… I would just be happiest if she won for a film /role that lives up to how brilliant she is!
Just saw the Good Morning America interview with Sacha Baron Cohen and Maria Bakalova about Borat 2… Sacha directly mentioned that Bakalova should be nominated for an Oscar for this performance… I agree.
Also, checked out “Spree”‘s reviews… that film isn’t getting anywhere close to Oscar night…
You mean Frank Langella, I believe. Anthony Minghella is the late director of The English Patient.
thank you, Julie!
(but think what a comeback that would be for Minghella!)
Mrs. Ella, mother of Frank and Anthony, recently stated that she´s happy with the career of her sons and expects great things for their future.
You’re welcome. I didn’t want it to appear snotty that I just made the correction and didn’t otherwise comment, but I knew you guys wouldn’t take it that way. I had some teaching work to do and couldn’t comment on the article. 🙂 at your Minghella comment.
I haven’t see it yet but director Heidi Ewing is getting a lot of praise for I Carry You With Me from Sony Pictures Classics
Best Actress: Sophia Loren