FILM
BEST PICTURE
Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
BEST ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Alan Kim – Minari (A24)
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Minari (A24)
BEST COMEDY
Palm Springs (Hulu and NEON)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Joshua James Richards – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
BEST SCORE
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste – Soul (Disney)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale – Mank (Netflix)
BEST EDITING
Alan Baumgarten – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Mikkel E. G. Nielsen – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ann Roth – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
BEST SONG
Speak Now – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios)
2021 SEE HER AWARD
Zendaya
TELEVISION
BEST DRAMA SERIES
The Crown (Netflix)
BEST COMEDY SERIES
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
BEST LIMITED SERIES
The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
BEST MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Hamilton (Disney+)
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Josh O’Connor – The Crown (Netflix)
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Emma Corrin – The Crown (Netflix)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Gillian Anderson – The Crown (Netflix)
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Michael K. Williams – Lovecraft Country (HBO)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Daniel Levy – Schitt’s Creek (Pop)
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Catherine O’Hara – Schitt’s Creek (Pop)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION
John Boyega – Small Axe (Amazon Studios
BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Anya Taylor-Joy – The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Donald Sutherland – The Undoing (HBO)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Uzo Aduba – Mrs. America (FX)
BEST COMEDY SPECIAL
Jerry Seinfeld: 23 Hours to Kill (Netflix)
Michelle Buteau: Welcome to Buteaupia (Netflix)
BEST SHORT FORM SERIES
Better Call Saul: Ethics Training with Kim Wexler (AMC/Youtube)
BEST TALK SHOW
Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)
I think Emma should have won best Costume Design. The Empire period is remarkably difficult to pull off well, but somehow they thought of so many trims, finishings, and craft sewing machines to make truly beautiful costumes. The only thing I could say about Ma Rainey’s costumes is that the actors did a very good job wearing their costumes, or incorporating their costumes into their acting. So it kind of feels like a controversy about whether the purpose of costuming is to create beautiful clothes, or to assist with the story. Emma does the former better, while Ma Rainey excels in the latter.
Agreed
Mulligan wins sag but Andre day wins at bafta. Mulligan wins Oscar.
Boseman and kaluuya are locks for the whole awards season
Supporting actress is still up in the air.
Chloe zhao wins director and adapted screenplay and picture is down to 3 Nomadland vs ma Rainey’s vs pyw
Day can’t win BAFTA because she isn’t on the long list. She won’t be nominated.
Mulligan is shoo in to win BAFTA.
Supporting isn’t that up in the air cause Bakalova won in her category.
If day can’t be nominated then mcdormand wins bafta and then mulligan wins Oscar, finally
why would McDormand win BAFTA? They are going to award the movie at least in Director, no urgency to award McDormand.
Because none of the others get nominated, apparently. :)) He must have known something…
I think that McDormand and Kirby snub is more likely considering their effort to nominate 4 PoC actresses. One of them is winning.
And he was trying to throw us off by pretending to not know Andra Day wasn’t shortlisted, lol…
Why would Mulligan not win BAFTA. It feels exactly like what she will win.
My impressions:
Pretty boring winners, really.
Nomadland looking to be the winner of all until … the Oscars.
Time will tell what BAFTA does. Chances are if Nomadland wins there, it ain’t winning the Oscar. That has been the trend for the last 5-6 years. But. BAFTA is different this year.
If it’s not Nomadland or Trial 7, Alan S. Kim certainly did wonders for Minari’s chances. What a WONDERFUL speech by him. Absolutely adorable.
Glad Mulligan won. I wonder if Day winning the Globe actually helps her cause — that Mulligan is not a sweeper with a target on her back. I think Mulligan wins BAFTA – she’s won there before for An Education; they like her very much. SAG, not completely sold.
Boseman, Kaluuya … signed sealed delivered.
Bakalova. Realllllllly thought they’d go for Youn. I found that very interesting and a bit dispiriting. Then again, I’m not a fan of Bakalova’s awards run. Maybe if someone else had won Supporting last night I wouldn’t be as irked. I still think AMPAS could go Youn or Close. But God knows who will even be nominated.
Screenplay wins were solid.
I found most of the Tech wins to be lazy/boring. Wanted some shake-ups – even if we know that the CC’s don’t mean much for the techs.
The CC’s are actually pretty good at predicting the techs. Not as good as BAFTA (in most of the categories), but better than the guilds, in most cases. A lot better.
Re: Actress SAG. If Mulligan doesn’t win, Day won’t either since she isn’t nominated. So that would be Day (Globe), Mulligan (CC, BAFTA) and ???? (SAG).
I don’t know why Mulligan wouldn’t win SAG. Her role is tailor-made for actors.
Davis could win SAG for sure. Mulligan should take BAFTA, and then it’s a battle for the Oscar between them.
I don’t see Viola Davis happening.
Davis is beloved by TV and Film actors and, Ma Rainey received 3 noms with SAG to PYW’s 1. It might be very close either way.
Every time Viola won at SAG, it was predicted. She was winning more that just the SAG.
I just don’t see it this year, especially based of the performance.
I agree with you. But I still think whoever wins SAG, it won’t be some blowout.
Gosh, wouldn’t you love to see the records of by how much winners have won in the past? To see who barely won (where we thought it was by a large margin, or vice-versa).
Another point about Davis and SAG: she would become the second actress to win three individual film SAGs, and the only other one was Renée Zellweger a year ago. Somehow the idea of that line being crossed for the first time and then immediately again the next year would in my opinion be slightly odd. Also, she would become the most awarded perfomer overall for film at SAG.
Doesn’t she already have 4?
Ensemble (The Help) Lead Actress (The Help) Supporting Actress (Fences) and TV Drama Actress.
Yes but like I said only two individual awards in film. Also, no one has won more than three film awards
She has won three SAG film awards.
Ensemble (The Help)
Lead Actress (The Help)
Supporting Actress (Fences)
With individual I meant “not ensemble”
https://media1.giphy.com/media/xtfeWxebunRGzTqPP7/giphy.gif
In the absence of the consensus which has usually formed by this point, I genuinely believe anything could happen in Actress and Supporting Actress this year.
Agreed. Actress could STILL go Mulligan/Davis/Day. Supporting is anyone’s guess.
Davis has won nothing all season, not even a critics’ prize. No one is talking about her and when they do they mention that she is supporting only.
As much as I loved Youn Yuh-Jung, the acting in Borat is something else. So happy for Bakalova. Still rooting for Glenn because she’s overdue but if she’s gonna lose again it better be Bakalova.
I’m just going to disregard all of this.
My guess is of the top six awards categories we saw all the Oscar winners tonight except supporting actress. I’ve got this feeling that Yuh-jung Youn might win for Minari.
The absolute bet the house on it Oscar categories are director, production design & special effects. Many others seem quite secure, but there is always some sort of surprise somewhere along the line and I like my house.
I wish Kirby had won something somewhere along the line!
1) “Speak Now” lyrics, song (Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night In Miami). His message, his incredible voice reverberates past the tallest mountains, the deepest oceans, across countries, ascends to heavens. This song truly stirs your spirit, crave welcome change. Dream, Yearn For Better Treatment, Equality. Promise of Optimal Today, Tomorrow…
2) Electrifying Performances by Boseman and Davis! One of the Top 5 Best Films Of The Year! Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is a Musical Masterpiece. An intriguing anecdote led by a stellar cast, the Incomparable Trumpet Player, Chadwick Boseman, The Unapologetic Diva, Viola Davis and Her Band, The Pianist, Trombonist and Bass Player, Glynn Turman, Colman Domingo and Michael Potts. Story involves Ma Rainey and Her Crew Recording A Song. Delightful, Descriptive Colorful Dialogue, Exchanges Ensued from this Event. Truths Are Told, Personal Details Revealed, Actions Are Taken and The Bittersweet Outcomes That Transpire From This Journey. Costumes/Hair/Makeup Very Nicely Done as Well. Like One Night In Miami, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Trial of the Chicago 7, worthy of some Oscar Love.
3) Carey Mulligan is Delicious, Deviously Clever in Promising Young Woman. A Haunting, Refreshing View of Me Too Retribution. It is ludicrous, that such heinous acts against woman are somewhat ignored. The movie invites, sustains your thoughts and perceptions. The film, her character draws your attention – a real gem.
4) Bakalova does not deserve a nomination. As Andra Day did not deserve to win at the Golden Globes. Borat’s daughter. My Short list for Best Supporting Actress (subject to revision): 1) Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari); 2) Olivia Colman (The Father); 3) Amanda Seyfried (Mank); 4) Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy); 5) Dominique Fishback (JABM). Possible Dark Horses Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman). Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) and Olivia Colman (The Father) are the only 2 Oscar Worthy Supporting Actress performances.
5) Short list Best Actress (subject to revision) : 1) Viola Davis (like Chadwick Boseman) are Electrifying (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom); 2) Carey Mulligan Shines (Promising Young Woman); 3) Frances McDormand Decent Work, but not her best (Nomadland); 4) Zendaya Powerful (Malcolm and Marie); 5) Rosamund Pike Spellbinding (I Care A Lot) Vanessa Kirby Solid Work (Pieces of a Woman).
6) Short list for Best Supporting Actor (subject to revision): 1) Leslie Odom, Jr. (Sam Cooke, He Is Ideal Recipe One Night In Miami Superb Performances By Lead and Supporting Cast. Specifically, Leslie Odom, Jr Excels, Masterfully Delivers. Kingsley Ben-Adir. Aldis Hodge and Eli Goree are also impressive in their execution); 2) Daniel Kaluuya (JABM); 3) Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods The Murdered Squad Leader Apparition/Gentle Spirit); 4) Frank Langella (The Trial of Chicago 7 Biased Judge); 5) Tie Bill Murray (On the Rocks);
7) Short list for Best Actor (subject to revision): 1) Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) – Dominant Electrifying Performance!); 2) Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) -Tortured, Twisted, Dysfunctional Deviant Vietnam Vet Who Finds Forgiveness, Redemption and Peace A Splendor to Watch; 3) Gary Oldman (Mank) – Unstable, Unpredictable, Intellectually Maddening Writer Well Done!); 4) Anthony Hopkins (The Father – Elderly Engineer Losing His Mind, His Daughter. Nicely Done); 5) LaKeith Stanfield and Steven Yeun (Judas and the Black Messiah and Minari – Korean American Who Dreams of Becoming a Farmer/Landowner given many Obstacles. He is Fascinating To Watch!);
8) Hamilton, an Unmatched Unsurpassed Musical Dramedy. It is rare to witness sheer majestic, magnificence, rich and diverse in acting, writing, directing, music, costumes, presentations and so forth. Hamilton epitomizes the ideal history lesson combined with exemplary thespians /characters and rap/hip-hop expressions. Hamilton is superior as a whole – a phenomenal artwork graced with the exceptional Lin – Manuel Miranda, Leslie Odom, Jr. Phillipa Soo, Daveed Diggs (SAG Nominee as well), Renee Elise Goldsberry, Christopher Jackson, Jonathan Groff, Jasmine Cephas Jones, Anthony Ramos, Okieriete Onaodowan, Ariana DeBose and Crew. Like Phantom of the Opera, Les Misérables and Rent, Hamilton Extraordinary In Every Way (Performances, Choreography, Directing, Writing, Costumes);
9) Minari is a a delectable film. A Korean Family finds great obstacles in pursuits of seemingly daunting goals/dreams on a farmland in Arkansas. Despite the drawbacks, the land, force majeures, etc., it does not deter the father from trying to obtain his dream. The writing, acting, dialogue between the characters in Korean/English is alluring, amusing, deeply profound. Steven Yeun and Youn Yuh-Jung garner Oscar-Worthy performances. Top 5 Films of 2020!;
10) Zendaya gives a powerhouse performance worthy of an Oscar nod. John David Washington matches her as her boyfriend with massive meltdowns – he is within the Top 10 of Best Actors of 2020.
11) Best Animated Film: 1) Soul and Wolfwalkers (Tied); 3) Over The Moon.
Best Noteworthy Films Listed: 1-13) Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, Princess Switch: Switched Again, The Fat Man, Queen’s Gambit (Incredible miniseries), Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Rich In Love (Brazilian Ricos En Amor), Mulan (could earn some Oscar Nods), Shadow In The Clouds, Malcolm and Marie (Zendaya is a marvel to behold/future Oscar Nominee with the writing), First Cow, Love Guaranteed, Another Round, Sylvie’s Love, American Skin.
Sheer Action Adventure To Entertain Extraction, Redemption Day and The Doorman.
Average Films: 1) Wonder Woman 1984; 2) Hillbilly Elegy; 3) Bacurau.
Best Visual Effects: 1) Mulan; 2) Soul; 3) Mank.
Original Score: 1) Minari; 2) Soul; 3) Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey; 4) Trial of the Chicago 7; 5) Mank
Good stuff!
Merci, Gracias, Arigato, Thank You For The Love Sir. Here Are Some Additional Notes:
1) I Will Speak Now. One Night In Miami is captivating, engaging cinema that features dynamic characters Malcolm X (Kingsley Ben-Adir), Muhammad Ali (Eli Goree), Jim Brown (Aldis Hodge) and Sam Cooke (Tony Winner Leslie Odom, Jr.).Brilliantly directed by Oscar/Multi-Emmy Winner Ms. Regina King, the movie makes you ponder, inspires, makes you hear and listen. These friends discuss, debate, provide passionate opinions, views, truth on exactly what is happening today. Racism, Civil Rights, Oppression, A Grand Desire To Be Treated as Human Beings while trying to Survive, Thrive Live Their Best Life. They Speak Their Minds To Be Heard, Understood. These Men Embodied A Will, A Drive, Spirit For Change – Dream, Yearn For Better Treatment. Promise of Optimal Today, Tomorrow… Superb Performances By Lead and Supporting Cast. Specifically, Leslie Odom, Jr Excels, Masterfully Delivers. Kingsley Ben-Adir. Aldis Hodge and Eli Goree are also impressive in their execution. Best Supporting Actor Leslie Odom, Jr. And Original Song should also be considered and/or should win as well;
2) Judas and The Black Messiah is a gripping, explosive, thoughtful movie that belongs in the Top 10 List Best Picture Nominations. Shaka King has directed an exemplary piece of artwork – he deserves an Oscar nod, if not win. LaKeith Stanfield portrays a master marauder. Coerced under duress from the FBI, he becomes a mole, a plant, a spy infiltrating Fred Hampton and The Black Panthers/Rainbow Coalition.
Stanfield is phenomenal character to watch. His subtle, conflicted reactions, decisions, lures, his boisterous outcries, his interactions, his gradual heartfelt bond towards with Hampton, his attempt to rescue his friend from a cruel imminent demise are so transparent. This year, there should be 6 places at the Oscar Table for Best Actor.
Daniel Kaluuya’s Oscar Nominated Performance as Fred Hampton, The Black Messiah who desires an escape from oppression to a world with great healthcare, quality education, ample food rations, greater opportunities, advancements, treatments from racist law enforcement. He drives, strives, hopes fights for integration, equality.
Dominique Fishback also delivers a fine Oscar Nominated performance as his girlfriend who supports, loves, gives her heart, soul to a man who is willing to be a martyr.
Another Nod towards Best Original Song: “Fight For You” lyrics song (H.E.R. Judas and the Black Messiah). It paints an extraordinary message about revolution, rainbow coalition, integration, fighting for freedom, human rights, justice;
3) “Loyal, Brave & True” lyrics song (Christina Aguilera, Mulan). Lady C has immortal pipes. This song salutes honorable, vigilant, fearless fighters – military personnel and their loved ones/families. They protect, guard us, day and night to ensure our safety and freedoms. Wondering about their well-being, awaiting their return – being missed terribly. The lyrics, beautiful voice, words captures Mulan and soldier’s thoughts;
4) Costumes 1) Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom; 2) Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey; 3) Mulan; 4) The Prom; 5) Mank; 6) One Night In Miami; 7) Queen’s Gambit (For Television); 8) Bridgerton (For TV);
5) Best Animated Film: 1) Soul and Wolfwalkers (Tied); 3) Over The Moon.
Best Noteworthy Films Listed: 1-13) Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, Princess Switch: Switched Again, The Fat Man, Queen’s Gambit (Incredible miniseries), Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Rich In Love (Brazilian Ricos En Amor), Mulan (could earn some Oscar Nods), Shadow In The Clouds, Malcolm and Marie (Zendaya is a marvel to behold/future Oscar Nominee with the writing), Love Guaranteed, Another Round, Sylvie’s Love, American Skin;
6) Rosamund Pike Is Spellbinding (I Care A Lot). A cleverly con earns profits by auctioning elderly victims’ possessions, properties. But, she meets her match when she falsely imprisons a human sex trafficker’s, (Peter Dinklage) mother (Dianne Wiest) at a long-term care facility. They ensue in a deadly games of predator versus prey, a precarious game of chess, if you will. She is a conniving, deviant, irresistible in her Oscar worthy performance.
In the acting races I’m going with
Boseman/Mulligan/Kaluuya/Bakalova
I probably have the same 4 right now.
SBC is winning. Think of his year, and that it is not the first time he’s the entertainer of the year (2006: Borat and Talladega Nights, he deserved at least noms for both, he got only nominated for Adapted Screenplay… and now he’s in two extremely political films, which have lined up against Trump…). Plus, just picture Sacha and Maria posing together with their Oscars… that’s also a narrative.
Nah. Kaluuya is a lock for a win. Almost as much as SBC
Borat just surpassed all expectations and scored the PGA nom. It’s THAT loved.
The movie (Borat) is loved. But Sacha is in for another role, his role in Chicago 7. Which will not win against Kaluuya
OMG, I thought the Golden Globes were bad! Maybe these just seemed worse as I taped the GG’s & I made it go faster. If the pandemic is still causing these shows to be shown this way next year, I’m definitely passing and will just read the awards later, much like the film technical awards were tonight, a big annoyance to me. Abysmal is a kind word for this telecast, but then they never seem to realize in any format that Diggs is awful at this. The only meager highlights were Zhao’s touching comments on Wolf Snyder, Meyers’ mother, & Gaffigan.
I don’t know what, but somehow, someway the Oscars have got to be done differently. Test them all before they enter and seal the doors and require masks. I don’t care, but not another one of these atrocities. It…just…doesn’t…work!
this was the first Critics Choice i had watched – the first half mostly in fast forward, then the biggies watching live. Taye Diggs was awful! So insincere and unfunny. Globes were positively radiant by comparison!
It’s too many categories. I don’t understand why they don’t do the TV awards in August, before the Emmys? They even get the structure of the TV awards right, unlike the Globes or the SAG. The fact the Globes still give Supporting Actor/Actress in everything scripted or that SAG doesn’t have Supporting categories or a Limited Series category is baffling.
I liked it, as usual with Critics Choice, but of course the Oscars should be done differently… This isn’t a good format. But I thought they did alright with it, better than the Globes.
Holy c… that’s long! 🙂 But I think it’s my best work so far this Oscar season. I think I looked at all of the angles and didn’t leave out any relevant stats or arguments. (The tables help so much with that.)
I´m not a stats expert but as I read the last 13 CC best supporting actresses went on to win the corresponding Oscar – that´s not bad at all for Maria Bakalova! 🙂
that is compelling. Nobody tell Glenn Close please. 🙁
That´s true, but I don´t suspect she´s too optimistic about her chances… 😉
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/539fd08984012bd5ab5e1c7e5c5973b3d527c3088b0571da086dc99aefe9059a.jpg
An order please for one Honorary Oscar for Ms Close. Oh the irony of Glenn presenting it to Deborah Kerr.
According to IMDB.com, so far, Youn Yuh-jung has won 25 awards for Supporting Actress for ”Minari,” which includes the National Board of Review and the L.A. Film Critics Association. Maria Bakalova has won 17 awards for Supporting Actress for ”Borat Subsequent Moviefilm,” which includes the National Society of Film Critics and N.Y. Film Critics Circle. Amanda Seyfried has won 4 awards for Supporting Actress for ”Mank,” which includes the Satellite Awards. Olivia Colman has won 1 award for Supporting Actress for ”The Father” from the AACTA International Awards, and Glenn Close has won 1 award for Supporting Actress for ”Hillbilly Elegy” from the Nevada Film Critics Society.
Very useful! I was just asking daveinprogress about this. 🙂
Explains why Glenn isn’t winning and probably isn’t going to win the Oscar, either, I guess…
thank you I did not realise Youn was that far ahead! Very interesting.
Ugh… That sucks… I was so hoping Glenn could do it… Unlike other people, I do hope she gets nominated, at least (even if that will mean I get my early prediction wrong) – she’s too deserving.
I guess the stats may be skewed in Close’s case by the fact most precursors have already awarded her two years ago, so they feel no pressure to award her this time, while the Academy hasn’t awarded her ever, despite 7 noms, so there’s a lot of pressure to do so, at last!
Yes, another excellent point! I do think she could still win in a close race – but not if Bakalova wins SAG, too.
I guess the stats may be skewed in Close’s case by the fact most precursors have already awarded her two years ago, so they feel no pressure to award her this time, while the Academy hasn’t awarded her ever, despite 7 noms, so there’s a lot of pressure to do so, at last!
That´s one of the most thrilling categories for sure. I guess I´d vote for Bakalova even though Youn was great too. I have issues with Glenns performace and her film, but she still has a chance, I guess. Even though I think the Academy will also have issues with Hillibilly.
Yeah, she has a chance. She would probably need to win SAG+BAFTA, though. From what I can remember, just SAG tends to not be enough.
this could be a Tilda Swinton type year, where someone you don’t necessarily expect to win – does! Voting could end up being really close
Hopefully Glenn ‘Close’ 🙂
I´m pretty sure that Youn would be the darkhorse winner, especially if Minari makes a strong impression on the Academy (and some might shy away from Bakalova´s guerilla kind of performance).
or a Seyfried comes out of the blue! Or Zengel – but i am less inclined on that. SAG and BAFTA will illuminate – or not!!!!!
Much to my surprise, I really liked Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and thought Bakalova gave such a transformative performance. I think it will resonate with a lot of actors. Sure there’s a novelty component, but it is vivid and memorable (well for me anyway). She’s winning stuff!
Definitely seems to be heading in that direction. 🙂 Or maybe Pike was a Globes thing only (a glitch, as it were) and Bakalova just dominates the category moving forward… She dominated the critics phase, right? I don’t remember exactly.
she seemed to appear everywhere. That is my memory of this season (time is especially rubbery since Covid) I think Pike is just a Globes thing (although i really liked her performance and the movie; despite it being so dark). Maria’s performance and reaction to it has a real pulse to it.
She’s definitely not my favorite (nor is the movie) but objectively speaking hers is probably the most impressive work… I wouldn’t mind a win for her. I’d much rather Glenn or Amanda won. Maybe once I see Minari and The Mauritanian I’ll also be rooting for the other possible winners more than her. 🙂 But I still wouldn’t mind it…
I always wondered… if not Swinton, who? Blanchett only won GGs, Amy Ryan only won CC and both were the only nomination for their films. When you are competing with any other nominations for your film, rule of thumb: you have to sweep the precursors. Exceptions to that are basically non-existent. Penelope Cruz would obviously have won SAG and Globes if those voting bodies didn’t buy the Winslet category fraud.
Dee was not nominated at the Globes and BAFTAs. When Swinton won BAFTA, I immediately switched my prediction to her.
I remember at the time, yes she won BAFTA, but optically, before forensically looking at stats etc, her performance seemed the most laid back and non awardsy! It wasn’t especially splashy or memorable; yet Tilda Swinton is usually all those things – splashy and vibrant and fascinating. It was an odd choice it felt at the time. Ruby Dee won the SAG didn’t she? I thought she was going to win.
Even contenders that have a lot of screeners issues managed to not miss three of the four televised precursors (BAFTAs, Critics Choice, SAG, and Globes). Dee won the SAG but wasn’t even nominated elsewhere. Without any screener issue.
And Amy Ryan had a fair bit of heat for that performance too.
Amy Ryan is so under-appreciated.
well, well, well… those who still don’t believe Bakalova might be happening… wait for BAFTA, where SBC has the biggest influence. If Bakalova wins SAG, I think it’s a done deal (if nominated, which, again, is still shaky – but given the pedigree and precursors, she seems kind of safe.
Sacha Baron Cohen doesn’t have the biggest influence at BAFTA, even though he is British. In fact, he has never received a BAFTA Film Award nomination, and the first Borat was extremely well-received in the UK. He has a couple of TV wins from 20 years ago but that’s a completely different voting system.
Plus, the subject matter of Borat 2 is *very* US-centric, and BAFTA doesn’t tend to go for those films so much. They may well nominate Bakalova and the screenplay, but I have a hard time imagining wins for either when their prize darling Olivia Colman (or even Close) would be waiting in the wings.
Good arguments – we might actually get that all-different-winners scenario, if Colman wins there and Close at SAG (or vice-versa). Wow!…
I think since the only award bodies due to award Close are Bafta and Ampas, if nominated she could really pull it off. Still not sold on Bakalova, Youn and Colman (maybe that’s the reason why I keep seeing a scenario in which Close wins. I just don’t see Colman winning a second Oscar beating her again in two years)
Yeah, I don’t really think Colman is winning anything, to be honest. But it would be pretty sick if we got 4 different winners at the Globes, BFCA, SAG and BAFTA. 🙂
Yeah, we could end having:
GG Foster
CC Bakalova
SAG Youn
BAFTA Colman/Close
OSCAR Close
What a ride!
I don’t really buy the Youn thing… (Although, if I’m right about Colman and wrong about that, then I guess this is another way it could happen. There’s also Seyfried who’s won stuff and could upset somewhere.) By the way, you’re right, we could even have five different winners, if we include the Oscars. 🙂
important detail. Bakalova did not lose the GG for Supporting Actress. She was placed in lead, and she was the frontrunner to win it, but in the last minute I Care a Lot was released and Pike won there. Bakalova wasn’t in the same pool than her contenders. When she was in the same pool again (BFCA) she won. I think she’ll lose SAG and win BAFTA. It’s an open race but I still think Bakalova, while not locked for the nom, would be the likely winner, and actually the one that makes more sense, all factors considered. The only thing playing against her, was the fact she’s a comedic performance, and she’s sweeping despite it. Only Youn has won more but still hasn’t won neither Globe nor CC, and has the uphill battle that no foreign language performance won at Supporting Actress at the Oscars.
1. Bakalova
2. Close
3. Youn
4. Colman
5. Foster
6. Seyfried
7. Burstyn
(for the Oscar win).
The last Oscar winner for Supporting Actress to lose the BFCA/CC awards for Supporting Actress was Penelope Cruz, that – as in the Globes – lost to Kate Winslet who went Lead at the Oscars (which she won as well).
are you aware that he’s a double BAFTA winner, aren’t you? In film, they have never nominated him, but he’s a comedy legend in the UK, from way before anyone abroad would have heard about him. You even pointed it out. His film career hasn’t been awards-friendly at all, and despite that, he is an Oscar nominee and winner of three Golden Globes (one as producer). Are you sure he’s not going to win the BAFTA over Kaluuya? Kaluuya is also a BAFTA winner, and is also british. But the film isn’t going to be a surefire nominee at BAFTA or Oscar for Best Picture, while Trial of the Chicago 7 may even win both, if Nomadland does a Sideways.
Are you aware that the BAFTA Film Awards and BAFTA TV Awards are completely separate entities under one umbrella organisation, and both ceremonies are dictated by entirely separate processes? The BAFTA TV Awards is decided by panel. The BAFTA Film Awards is decided by the body of members voting.
I’d put money on Kaluuya over Bohen, for sure, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility I guess.
and are you aware how much do both groups crossover? 😉
BAFTA TV winners are decided by a very small group of randomly assorted people in a room, whereas the BAFTA film winners are voted on by the entire membership body. The membership has changed a lot in the past 10 years, but if Bohen held real sway with the membership, I think he would have picked up a screenplay nod for Borat. But this may yet be his year for sure!
the impact of SBC’s body of work this year is way bigger than in 2006. While I love Talladega Nights (and I think it’s superior to Chicago 7!) in no way can we say that SBC’s supporting performance was even able to be compared in its impact or appeal to this year’s. Plus Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, overall, is having a bigger impact than the original, even if reviews aren’t that much excited – and I think it’s because of political reasons on one side, as it is more aggressive and more focused on one side, and also because it simply couldn’t be as fresh as the original anyways – the film clearly has reinvented itself completely with the addition of Tutar and making her be the complete center, heart and soul of the film, becoming in surface an anti-Trump declaration and not so obviously a ultra-feminist film, a vindication of women’s rights, forcing the audience to look at themselves in the mirror and realize how much of Borat’s misoginia is inside each one of us. Bakalova isn’t sweeping just for being a superb impro-comedy performer… it is also because her performance takes us by the hand into this trip of self-discovery, not only Tutar’s, but also ours.
Well. The BAFTAs have certainly moved more and more towards US films. When Allison Janney beat Lesley Manville in 2017, I knew there had been a change. And last year was the first year (outside of the year Streep won for playing Thatcher) that not one of the acting winners was British. They went FULL Hollywood. So you may be right. But my suspicion is that they would throw a BAFTA at Olivia Colman for wiping her arse.
maybe, maybe not. I haven’t seen The Father, but I read somewhere that her role isn’t played enterily by her?
Sideways wasn’t strong in both directing and screenplay. There are better analogies. La La Land, for instance. Or, obviously, some BP winners. 🙂
Bakalova is total SAG-AFTRA pick. Her movie was seen unlike some other movies, and it’s a category where newcomers do well. I get that Close fans are still holding on but right now Bakalova is the only winner in Supporting Actress that makes sense. Foster was a blip and she didn’t compete against Bakalova (who was in Comedy). And HFPA are star fuckers so…
And then Olivia Colman goes and wins the SAG.
Very doubtful.
I would agree with you were it not for the fact that they failed to give Colman the Best Actress prize in 2018. Will they feel a need to rectify this?
Does any vote with the feel to rectify this and that unless that’s a part of someone’s campaign (Leo’s Oscar, for example)?
I think the Denzel Washington SAG a couple of years made me think that make-up wins was definitely a thing with SAG.
though one has to look into frequency of such wins. one doesn’t make a rule.
Because they’re sure they will give some to Colman again. With Bakalova, your guess is as good as mine. She may go to be a star, but also she may go the Hain S. Ngor route… in Hollywood and in the film industry, you never know. Just look at Anna Paquin, she’s been consistently good in all her career but she hasn’t been Oscar nominated again, and has only one Golden Globe for “True Blood”.
I would wager it’s in Bakalova’s interests to *not* win an Oscar so she doesn’t disappear into the land of Alicia Vikander.
Also now ‘Nomadland’ with the Globe and Critics Choice wins is in the exact same spot as ‘Boyhood’ and ‘The Social Network’.
And it’s been a while but, remember, Argo and Slumdog Millionaire and The Return of the King and so on were also in this position and did go all the way! It’s all about how the rest of the field is doing and, so far, Nomadland’s opposition doesn’t seem strong enough.
Except its rivals are doing so much worse than theirs were… (OK, maybe except for ProYo.)
Did ‘ROTK and ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ have any competition? Very, very comprehensive wins at the Oscars 11/11 and 7/8 respectively. I initially thought that ‘Lincoln’ could beat ‘Argo’.
Not really. ROTK’s competition was ridiculously weak, in terms of missing big precursor nominations (they all had multiple big industry misses) and not managing to beat ROTK anywhere. Slumdog’s was better, as it was a year in which the top 5 repeatedly got in everywhere, but they didn’t beat Slumdog for anything either. Those are two of the biggest locks of all time. Definitely ROTK. Probably the biggest lock ever, so it’s no wonder it went 11/11.
I was glad Boyhood and Social Network both lost for Best Picture and I hope Nomadland makes it a Trifecta .. Boyhood was a gimmick and Nomadland is a Pseudo – Documentary with great cinematography and Social Network was a narcissistic glorification of a punk . I am however looking forward to Francis McDormand’s next movie with Denzel Washington , It’s called The Tragedy of Macbeth and it’s directed by her husband .
I still don’t understand why this event even gets reported on considering it has zero impact on the race and is a glorified prediction list. Mulligan and Bakalova still don’t have a chance.
Because it doesn’t have zero impact on the race…
I’m willing to have my mind changed, but the lack of a crossover in voters makes me think (particularly in the acting categories) that they vote for who they think is going to win the Oscar, hence many happy coincidences.
Coincidences count too. 🙂 I guess I should rephrase: it’s debatable what influence they have on the voters, but they definitely have an impact as a predictor. A big one.
“they vote for who they think is going to win the Oscar”
I disagree, but I’ve already written two longish posts about it today. 🙂 You can find them both by looking for “never agreed with this theory”, if you’re at all curious.
They wouldn’t have laughable ties if they didn’t want to predict the Oscars. 🙂 (Like Mendes with Bong or Close with Gaga)
And yeah, no one cares about Critics’ Choice awards. Globes, guilds and BAFTA are the only awards that matter.
Critics’ Choice aren’t even watched (how many viewers they have? Like almost no one?)
I know that you like them because they fit into your statistics but it would be strange if they didn’t if they simply PREDICT the Oscars.
Dude, but, as far as I know, they vote, separately, they don’t (all 300 or 400 or however many there are) get together in a room and talk it out and decide to have ties!… Also, other groups have ties too, sometimes, and nobody accuses those of trying to predict stuff because of it. And, like, with hundreds of voters and an actual, secret vote, it’s impossible to coordinate every single one to vote so that there are ties in specific places. That’s absurd! Surely you don’t think somebody changes the results after the votes are counted!
I like their choices that have nothing to do with the Oscar race, too. Like their comedy winners, most years. (Palm Springs this year, The Big Sick over the much, much more Oscar-friendly Lady Bird, and many more.) Also, as I’ve said before, they pick stuff that has no chances at the Oscars, too – First Reformed for screenplay, for instance, two years ago. (Over Roma, The Favourite, Green Book – the Globe screenplay winner.) I mean, if you’re going to claim anybody thought that one was winning the Oscar or was a favorite for the Oscar, I don’t know what to tell you… 🙂
Mulligan and Bakalova don’t have a chance for what? Nomination? Mulligan is in, Bakalova looking really good. They are nominated for Globe, CC, SAG and made BAFTA long list so at least Mulligan will be nominated there too. That’s more than you can say about contenders who didn’t win anything so far, or those who missed SAG and BAFTA longlist.
For the win.
How?
My opinion. Don’t shoot me. Although I concede I was being dramatic in the pursuit of discrediting this organisation. In the scheme of things, both Mulligan and Bakalova stand a chance.
Mulligan doesn’t have a chance?? If she does not have a chance, tell me who does and why
She does have a chance for sure, but the Globe snub was a kick in the teeth. And the Critics Choice picking her doesn’t give her any more of one. She’s up against Davis and Day for sure.
‘snub’ means not getting a nomination. She was not snubbed.
And she lost for a woman who did not get in SAG and BAFTA. That will Hurt her WAY more. There are stronger stats against Andra Day, since no one has ever won Best Actress without a SAG nomination since SAG exists
‘snub’ means not getting a nomination. And it also means not getting a win. She was snubbed.
This contest is far from cut and dry. At this point it pays to be open minded, something I was not when I said Mulligan had no chance.
By the way I fully endorse Mulligan for the win on the basis that she once gave me a £1 tip when I was ushering.
No, snub is only used when The person does not get a nomination. I have been here for years and no one uses ‘snubbed’ when The person loses the prize.
I also Wonder what makes you think Viola is a great competitor when she has not won anything yet.
Mulligan did not only win yesterday. She has won most of critics awards and also won AACTA, which has overlapping members with AMPAS, even if just a few. AACTA does not always have 100% results matching with Oscars, but was the first one who awarded Rami Malek when Bradley Cooper was frontrunner. They also awarded Olivia Colman when everyone thought it’d be Close. Mulligan also has massive popular support on The internet.
I don’t know where to start with this. I guess I will reaffirm my point that at the moment it’s still anybody’s guess in this category.
‘Mulligan also has massive popular support on The Internet.’
OK… this famously worked out well for no film ever.
‘She has won most of critics awards’
Critics awards should never be taken as a indication of industry support.
‘I have been here for years’
What – are you five years old or something? You are totally wrong on the definition of snub. It means either/or and I am having enough of a procrastination day that I would be more than happy to go to great lengths to prove it to you 😉
All of this and still have not proved how is Viola Davis a big player when she has not won anything
“OK… this famously worked out well for no film ever.”
She has audience AND critics support. It will work for those members with a more popularesque taste as well as those more critical of things.
She is also in a Best Picture nominee (almost a lock for a nomination). Glenn Close was hurt by that in 2019. The wife was seen by no one. ‘the favourite’ was a best picture nominee
Audience (Internet) and critics support = CMBYN.
Davis is obviously in contention on account of the strength of her film at SAG, her general popularity, and the lack of a concensus choice so far which like it or not stands in her favour. If she loses SAG I will reconsider. I could totally see three Black acting winners this year.
Promising Young Woman doesn’t have a Best Picture nominee yet. I have a feeling it could be on the outside looking in. I’m not going to lie – I hated the film so I can attest to it not being universally loved.
“Audience and critics support = CMBYN”
Hold on, Call me By your name was a well liked movie. But timothee chalamet’s acting was never perceived as the best. Not by critics and most of the Audience. Gary Oldman swept critics awards and was audience’s favourite, even if CMBYN was a most popular movie than darkest hour
“Promising Young Woman doesn’t have a Best Picture nominee yet”
It has overperformed at guilds so far. We can safely say it is top 6: surely behind Nomadland and trial 7, maybe behind Minari, Mank and ma Rainey.
It is ahead of News of the world, the Father, Judas and The Black Messiah, da 5 bloods, sound of metal, soul
“Not by critics and most of the Audience. Gary Oldman swept critics awards and was audience’s favourite, even if CMBYN was a most popular movie than darkest hour”
Well, Chalamet won both NYFCC and LAFCA, and Oldman didn’t win NSFC either.
Oldman did not sweep but won more than double awards compared to chalamet
www. metacritics. com/feature/2017-film-awards-and-nominations-scorecard
“Hold on, Call me By your name was a well liked movie. But timothee chalamet’s acting was never perceived as the best. Not by critics and most of the Audience.”
Wrong. I think you should go back and look at this. Timothée Chalamet won a HUGE amount of critics awards. New York Film Critics, LA Film Critics, Chicago Film Critics (where he won two top awards).
I believe that Timothée Chalamet one more critics awards than Gary Oldman.
“I believe that Timothée Chalamet one more critics awards than Gary Oldman”
No he did not. According to metacritics scorecard, Oldman won more than double compared to chalamet
www .metacritics. com/feature/2017-film-awards-and-nominations-scorecard
They were the only major precursor to give Bong Best Director last year.
Tied…
They don’t deserve credit for shameless ties.
AMPAS also allows ties.
Allows.
But only the BFCA habitually has ties every year.
So , Paul Raci , super-fenomenal acting is out of everything ??!!!!!!
Sadly, that’s what it’s looking like. I think Paul Raci’s performance is too subtle for the Academy. I thought it’s far and away the best supporting performance of the year, male and female. But it doesn’t look like anyone can subvert Daniel Kaluuya’s sweep.
So who’s going to win Support Actress at SAG. That’s the most interesting category this year.
I’m hoping it’s Youn Yuh-jung from ”Minari.” She also happens to be a double SAG nominee; she’s the only Supporting Actress nominee who’s also up for Ensemble.
I guess it could be that kind of category, with different winners everywhere… I still don’t think she’s winning the Oscar. She should have made up for the Globe snub by winning here.
First, Youn has to get NOMINATED for the Oscar. The Academy has a horrible history of passing over Asian actresses in Supporting. In recent memory, they ignored Hong Chau (”Downsizing”), a SAG,Globe and Critics’ Choice nominee; Michelle Yeoh (”Crazy Rich Asians”), a SAG & Critics’ Choice Ensemble nominee; Shuzhen Zhao (”The Farewell”), a Critics’ Choice nominee and Indie Spirit winner. And even though ”Parasite” won SAG Ensemble, none of its cast were Oscar-nominated. … The last, and only, time an Asian won Supporting Actress was Miyoshi Umeki (”Sayonara”) in 1958!
Michelle Yeoh was also passed over for ‘Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.’ Oscar acting nominations for ‘Minari’ cannot be taken for granted.
Yes, Yeoh got a BAFTA nomination for Best Actress for ”Crouching Tiger.” … ”Crouching Tiger” joins a list of Asian-themed movies that either won or were nominated for Best Picture, but … received NO ACTING nominations: ”The Last Emperor,” ”Slumdog Millionaire,” ”Life of Pi,” ”Letters From Iwo Jima” and ”Parasite.” I really hope ”Minari” can be a breakthrough for Asian actors at the Oscars.
Yeah, sadly true…
Close is winning hands down
It just seems wrong that’s the movie she finally earns Oscar for but it happens, ignored for scores of worthy work then win for weakest performance.
Assuming Andrew Lloyd Webber’s musical of ”Sunset Boulevard” finally gets filmed, I’d rather see Close win for that Tony-winning role.
And then if it comes out and it’s not a La La Land or a Chicago (with the plus that it’s a musical version of one of the best films of all time)… musical bias, remake bias… And then watch out for people to take any just fine performance from anyone with 5% of Close’s resumé to become a force and say this ridiculous “she can’t win for this”.
Mini-poll: Which movie should Close have won her Oscar for? I pick ”Dangerous Liaisons” (over Jodie Foster in ”The Accused” in 1989).
Dangerous Liaisons
The Big Chill
The Wife (ageism prevented people from appreciating how unique that role is… the type of role that lands to 70+ actresses once a decade)
Three Oscars by now.
That one. And Hillbilly Elegy :))
Fatal Attraction
Dangerous Liaisons is the movie for her to win if anything (I’m leaning more towards “maybe she hasn’t deserved one yet” although I haven’t seen The World According to Garp yet). In those years I’d give the Oscars to:
1982 (Supporting Actress): Danielle Darrieux (Une Chambre en Ville)
1983 (Supporting Actress): Gunn Wållgren (Fanny and Alexander)
1984 (Supporting Actress): Nastassja Kinski (Paris, Texas)
1987 (Actress): Holly Hunter (Broadcast News) (people seem to treat that year as a Close vs. Cher competition sometimes forgetting the true deserving winner of that lineup)
1988 (Actress): Michelle Pfeiffer (Married to the Mob)
2011 (Actress): Juliette Binoche (Certified Copy)
2018 (Actress): Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
2020 (Supporting Actress): Sandra Hüller (Sibyl)
There are only two organizations in debt with Glenn Close – BAFTAs and AMPAS. I have to say… if she is to lose to Borat’s daughter or Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine Minari Edition… I prefer that she misses both nominations.
Alan Kim’s speech is the most darling thing. I just want to give him a hug.
Oh, one last thing: are those of us who are predicting Trial, still, really thinking Nomadland wins director and screenplay at the Oscars and somehow still not winning Best Picture? Because, let’s face it, it will pretty much take a miracle to beat Zhao in directing at this point (there’s no critical darling Bong – Zhao is it – and the potential guild-only alternatives, a la The King’s Speech or Birdman, are all very weak-looking, even more than those were) and it’s starting to look pretty unlikely for it to not win screenplay as well. The Globe went with the other category, Zhao’s film won here, Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami, the logical/strongest alternatives, didn’t make the GG five, which Nomadland did (I know it happens sometimes for movies to win in spite of that, but it’s still pretty rare), The Father can only win BAFTA as a precursor… I don’t know. I’m not seeing it. I think whatever was supposed to beat Nomadland for screenplay at the Oscars had to win here first. I guess BAFTA is the last chance for an upset in this category. (Adapted Screenplay.) If Nomadland wins that, it’s pretty much over, surely!
I know Sammy thinks Ma Rainey will win screenplay, of course. 🙂 (And she may be right.) But are other people honestly predicting either that or One Night in Miami over Nomadland in this category? Even after failing to do so at Critics Choice? I guess that’s mainly what I was curious about when I started asking this question…
If something wins two of BAFTA, WGA and the Scripter (something that I think both Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami… can still do), it would still be a pretty strong frontrunner in my opinion
I think it would be a close race – I’m not sure there would be a front-runner, as such, given Nomadland’s WGA ineligibility and the Globe refusing to clarify. Our pal john smith always used to say the Critics Choice was the best predictor for screenplay in close races. 🙂 I’d have to look at the numbers again to be sure how that setup would look. Will do it if we get there, no doubt!
Way too premature to rule out Chicago or any other film for that matter. No Guild award has been given out. I always like to look at whose nominated for director, screenplay, and editing and whose won the PGA, DGA, SAG Ensemble and WGA.
Well, yeah, that’s pretty much exactly what I look at as well (I also look at acting nominations, SAG acting wins and Oscar nominations ranking – as well as just nominations for PGA, DGA, SAG & WGA, not just wins). 🙂 But I think those can probably also be predicted (based on pre-industry precursor results) and my prediction right now is that Trial will do worse with those, overall, than Nomadland… (If it doesn’t, make no mistake, I will switch back to Trial as my official prediction, at the end!)
Trial did win the Globe for Screenplay and the Critics Choice for editing. That’s meaningful. Trial is by no means like the Irishman or BlacKKKlansman, where it was nominated for everything, but kept on coming up empty.
Nomadland didn’t get nominated for SAG Ensemble. That’s a mark against the film.
I think there are four frontrunners here: Nomadland, Trial, Ma Rainey and Promising.
Nomadland – Won Globe and Critics Choice for Picture and Director. Also nabbed screenplay at Critics Choice.
Trial – Won the Globe for screenplay and Critics Choice for editing.
Ma Rainey – Boseman’s wins at Globe and Critics Choice.
Promising – Strong showing at the Critics Choice, winning actress and screenplay.
No, it’s stronger than those, for sure! But those were very weak, lack-of-snubs notwithstanding, so that’s not saying much. 🙂 And yes, those wins are meaningful, but very strong, 100%-in-25-plus-years stats say they aren’t enough for a successful BP campaign. They never have been before…
Nomadland has the SAG problem, but it’s 2021. 🙂 These days, all movies have some stats problem or another. It’s normal. But something has to win and Nomadland is in by far the best position. It has the fewest and easiest stats to beat. So far, at least…
Ma Rainey is still in the worst shape of all four by far.
I feel like Nomadland will lose screenplay – although I agree with you, it’s hard to see what to. One Night in Miami could certainly emerge, The Father could surprise, even – hell – Borat might do it.
But even if Nomadland wins Adapted Screenplay and Directing, it could very well still lose to the Original Screenplay winner. For the moment, I’d probably predict Chicago 7 for the SAG, the PGA, the WGA and then Best Picture. Losing the PGA would probably make it the underdog, but I’d argue that it still has a chance then.
“But even if Nomadland wins Adapted Screenplay and Directing, it could very well still lose to the Original Screenplay winner.”
Yes, but one of my points was this: the last 7 director+screenplay winners have all won Best Picture. All of the recent exceptions (which aren’t that frequent anyway) came before the preferential ballot was reinstated. Even though there was one other screenplay winner each of those times, sometimes a strong one, it hasn’t happened since 2007. OK, rarely was that other screenplay winner also a PGA winner, but it was the year of The Departed, for instance… (Also pre-preferential, it’s true. But, anyway, Trial hasn’t won the PGA yet and, like I said, evidence suggests it’s not the favorite for that, at least not anymore.)
The only exceptions since 1954 are Brokeback Mountain, The Pianist and Traffic. The others are A Place in the Sun, A Letter to Three Wives and The Treasure of the Sierra Madre, in another spurt at the start of the 50’s, then three more pre-1940, The Informer (the only one ever to lose with a preferential ballot), Bad Girl and Seventh Heaven. That’s it. All other director+screenplay winners won Best Picture. The overall record for the two preferential eras is 10/11. With any system, it’s 45-9 (83%). It’s very rare, is the bottom line… It’s even rarer when it hasn’t happened for so many years – only happened 3 times ever in that context. The other were all within 7 years of at least one other, earlier such instance, including the only one during the preferential era…
It’s clearly not impossible – it just seems very unlikely.
But didn’t most of those recent director+screenplay winners also have the SAG Ensemble nomination?
That miss is what bothers me most.
The Shape of Water didn’t, but its main competition also lost Best Screenplay, so it could easily win anyway.
Obviously. (All of them, actually.) The Pianist is the only director+screenplay winner to be snubbed by SAG in ensemble, but that one was a surprise directing+screenplay winner. It didn’t show almost any strength in precursors, as far as I remember. I think it won the directing BAFTA and that was it. It was also snubbed by PGA and ACE and didn’t touch a major BP precursor win. Completely different situation to Nomadland’s. So this point is kind of moot – there’s no precedent either way. Also, why are we so sure Trial will have the directing nomination? This GG+BFCA showing doesn’t necessarily make me feel like it’s such a big contender anymore, one strong enough to just almost automatically get in with the directing branch… And that directing nod for Sorking still makes very little sense to me.
No question, that snub is what bugs me the most as well. If Nomadland loses somehow, that will be the reason. (And maybe an editing snub, if that happens too. It could.) But if it wins PGA+DGA, Trial has to win both SAG+WGA and get in for directing. None of that seems even remotely secure right now. Not after this. I feel like I’m john smith arguing with an earlier version of myself. 🙂 I would have been arguing for Trial back then, not yet quite realizing the importance of the GG and BFCA stats in predicting ultimate guild trajectories. Of course, it’s not always that clear-cut – but it is most of the time. The copy-paste factor is real. 🙂 SO easy for the WGA to just copy-paste ProYo, even assuming they don’t love it (or its screenplay) as much as many of us do. And when the BFCA and Globe diverge on the screenplay winner, the Globe winner does quite poorly at WGA. One of john smith’s lessons during our many great talks over the years. Also, SAG rarely goes to the favorite. There rarely even is a favorite for SAG Ensemble, honestly, and I don’t see any particular reason to make Trial out to be that. Minari and Ma Rainey could just as easily win there. Maybe even not just them, I don’t know. The BFCA Ensemble winner often doesn’t repeat at SAG. Recently, very often. I’ve already talked about why I believe Nomadland is the stats favorite for PGA.
What I’m saying is a lot of wins have to go its way for which there’s no particular objective reason to make it the favorite, especially in light of recent events, in order for Trial to carve out a path for itself to be the favorite over Nomadland for Best Picture. Could definitely happen, but I just don’t see any reason to expect it anymore. Had Cohen also been winning, maybe…
Predicting is sort of an art, and I would argue that stats-based predicting is even more of an art. I tend to not care much about a Best Director nomination anymore. Even though the stat is super strong if we count all the 90 years of it, my hypothesis is that there was a strong, significant change in the very nature of that award that makes it quite unnecessary for BP wins. I could be a fool for thinking this, of course, but as I said, it’s an art. We have to choose for ourselves how strongly we rely on each stat.
I see it more as a logical exercise. 🙂 Which is why I like it so much. Those have always been my favorites.
I think it’s a bit of an overreaction to say the directing nomination no longer matters at all. (It may well matter less than before.) Based on just 2 recent exceptions, one of which was almost definitely a fluke (and the snubbed party would have won the Oscar for sure had he garnered just a few more votes to get over the line in the nominations phase in what was clearly an insanely close race – Argo).
“We have to choose for ourselves how strongly we rely on each stat.”
Yup, very true. But I think there are always logical, objective ways to do that (not saying they’re easy to pinpoint exactly, because one can miss key factors/arguments, but I think it’s doable). Which explains our slightly differing views on whether there’s any art to it or not. 🙂
I disagree on the idea of “objective model-building”. There are ways to make any model better, but to know those in advance is impossible. Therefore how exactly we create our model depends on the modeller, and is automatically therefore subjective. I don’t think that we could be smart enough, logical enough to build The Correct Model.
Maybe we can’t be – this is a long debate, clearly – but we certainly can get quite close, in my opinion. 🙂 I have great faith in human logic. Probably close enough to be able to predict the Oscars with 99% accuracy. In Best Picture, I mean, where we have heaps upon heaps of helpful data… As for objectivity, I think that’s a big part of us getting closer to the truth, whatever it is.
I haven’t watched the last hour of the show yet, but I wanted to tell you that I was so happy to get on and see that Promising Young Woman won two categories! I have thought for the past few days that Nomadland is winning best picture, screenplay, director, and cinematography. There might be something else, too. I have to look at the categories. I will ponder this more deeply after the Oscar noms. Something like Straitharn (I spelled his name wrong, sorry) showing up in supporting actor would indicate even more support for Nomadland.
I mean, I’m getting used to being crushed in our early draft. :)) Which makes me even more confident Nomadland is going all the way – in all three categories.
Yup, feels like you were right all along… (About Nomadland.)
“I was so happy to get on and see that Promising Young Woman won two categories!”
I know, right?! 🙂 This has been, like, the best day! Again, no matter what happens at the Oscars, even – just to know they’re serious about ProYo and Carey as a contender is awesome.
Claudio mate…how are you my dear friend and fellow? clearly you not sold Nomadland is good enough to win a sweep straight up and manyt agree with you infact i not seen such expansive extensive diverse range of oopinions bewtween all members on this site in years a decade even that tells us all just how quickly this years oscar race outcomes will be forgotten IF Nomadland WINS best pic..it be forgotten very quickjly…on other hand i keen see ‘trial of chicago 7’ and intrigued with ‘one night in miami’ so while you not necessaruly sayt these 2 films as a match alternative for best pic…i hold hope for a ‘boilover’ but i not convinced with so few critics choice wins…and Nomadland is certianly not winning most what it nominarted for – when a film does it indication how memorable it is…deciusion for critics choice to give Mulligan is sound choice..it logical and it potnetially spells trouble for Nomadland to win without acting awards win..Mcdormand is a gifted actor no doubt but sher won before..if academy bout ‘true’ diversity….then they embrace a actress hasn’t won an oscar before. Mcdormand i quite sure been nominated few times and one once…
let pray for a boilover are you well and safe? i hope so..
Good point! People do seem to be predicting more things than usual for the BP win, so late in the season. Nomadland, Trial, ProYo, Minari, Ma Rainey… (Probably a result of the many unclear races we’ve had of late.)
McDormand might win the Oscar after all, though, now that she’s the only one nominated at BAFTA. (And I guess she’ll simply win there.) If and only if Nomadland wins Best Picture, though. Very weird race.
I’m very well, so far. 🙂 I hope you’re doing well and staying safe yourself!
Nomadland has no plot, is filmed pseudo-documentary, and worse of all, very boring.
Critics:
https://media2.giphy.com/media/6K5SCeSjNXJgk/giphy.gif
If you think it’s boring, that’s fine but is “pseudo-documentary” meant as a pejorative? If so, why do you claim the documentary form or an approximation of it is automatically lesser than another form? Also, why is a slight plot a problem? Very few of the joys of cinema come from plot so why do you hold it in such importance?
Honestly, if a movie is filmed pseudo-documentary, I just feel it’s lazy. When you have minimal locations, minimal actors, scenes where nothing happens, and scenes with where we watch actual actors just watching non actors being non actors, it doesn’t feel like it was planned; it feels like it was on the day, “Frances, just watch these people talk.”
It’s really hard for me to get into a plot-less film, unless it has wonderful set pieces, fascinating shot, or interesting scenes. Nomadland has one interesting scene.
These sound like problems you have with that kind of form. Is it really fair to blame the critical community for feigning extreme excitement in a kind of film when in fact they might be incredibly into it and you just disagree.
I haven’t seen it yet, so no comment on that part, but, yeah, critics definitely are like that, when it comes to such movies. 🙂 I’m not saying it’s a good thing and I’m not saying it’s bad, but I defy anyone to build an argument for us that that’s not the case!
It’s on Hulu.
You should definitely watch it.
Lower your expectations though.
I was actually fully intending to watch it twice so far, the day of the Globes and the day of the Critics Choice, but there was never quite enough time, in the end… 🙂 Too much other stuff to get to (AD comments, podcasts, stats, stream-hunting… sleep…) I definitely want to see it ASAP, though.
I personally loved Nomadland. Grossly disliked The Trial of Chicago 7.
Trial of Chicago 7 was my favorite film of the year.
See, I found that one very boring. Different people, different tastes.
https://media4.giphy.com/media/3oz8xDo1q81w2VZG5W/giphy.gif
Boring to some. Fascinating to others.
Such a pretentious and boring film. Whoever said that if this film were directed by a white man it wouldn’t win was absolutely right.
Usually people who use the word “pretentious” have little idea what it truly means.
Interesting that it won the audience prize in Toronto – like Green Book.
Usually people who use the word “pretentious” have little idea what it truly means.
The film is excellent and stands on its own.
Nice to see a good amount of different winners tonight. Glad Mulligan is back on track. And I haven’t had the chance to see the film yet. That screenplay win was great as well.
You’re cheering for her but you haven’t even see the movie?
He will once he’s seen it, too – there’s just no way anybody who expects to like that performance will ever end up being disappointed by it!
I’ve seen all of the nominees (except for NoTW). I respect Nomadland and I think PYW is my favorite. But when that clip of Sound Of Metal comes on it just punches me in the gut and I get choked up. I think it’s going to age well and I will be heartbroken if it doesn’t get an Oscar BP nom.
Definitely checkout News of the World when you can!
Yes, I feel the same way about Sound of Metal and Riz Ahmed. When a movie and a performance just comes along and knocks your socks off! It is the transformative performance of the year. Boseman was electric, and i’m sure Hopkins is sublime (haven’t seen The Father), but Riz Ahmed submerged every part of himself into that film. The interviews i’ve watched of him, he is like a completely different human being from the character and performance. Magical stuff.
Riz should be winning everything this year.
timing! Not the year to breakthrough! And for Kingsley Ben-Adir too 🙁
Good point. Very much applies to Riz. But also, which I’m so glad you mention, to Ben-Adir. I’m totally delighted with the attention Odom is getting. But on a performance level I thought he and Ben-Adir were toe-to-toe. Both powerful.
I’m glad they made up that embarrassment not happening try from golden globes to push andra day just because they were criticized about the lack of black members, that’s they only reason they gave her the award, anyway
CAREY!!! Promising young woman!!! What a performance! What a progressive role! She looks stunning with that look, the movie is really awesome
Again, this performance deserves everything
“just because they were criticized about the lack of black members, that’s they only reason they gave her the award”
I don’t know about all that, but I’m definitely all for everything else you said… 🙂
I thought Andra’s performance was terrible and the movie was even worse.
You thought her performance was “terrible” on what grounds? Do you have any idea the degree of difficulty that went into creating that character and how rigorous and accomplished that performance is for someone who has never acted before? You can say many things about this film, but the performance is unimpeachable and worthy of any awards that come its way. Sorry, but that is one hell of a performance and has been recognized as a such pretty much everywhere.
Another great speech to speak to voters……
NOMADLAND is terrific. Great locations. Nice landscapes, smart framing — but, best Cinematography? It looked like what it was – low res digital.
Is 3.2K not enough?
It isn’t with so much low lighting.
As nice as it looked in parts, I couldn’t help but keep thinking how much better it would have looked in 35mm – or, even true 4K or higher
At least ‘low res digital’ today means Nomadland and not Bamboozled.
Yes, it has improved. Watch FROZEN RIVER! Oh, my.
Thank you for not introducing every best pic nominee throughout the ceremony. That trend needs to end.
It was a nice way to do the songs though I thought.
I almost cried – I was SO tense and scared she wouldn’t win… Whatever happens, at least the BFCA picked right. I should have trusted them – they usually do, as far as I’m concerned…
she looked tense too and shocked. Prepared to lose again it seemed by her initial reaction. Lovely speech.
Yeah, exactly.
ME TOO! She is still in the race. Looking good.
Globes chose better. 🙂 As always, to be honest. 🙂
Globes suck…
At least they vote for what they like, not for what they think will win the Oscar.
Critics’ Choice are laughable. 🙂
Ah, but, see, I’ve never agreed with this theory. I think there are plenty of examples of them voting for stuff that wasn’t a favorite for the Oscar… Their tastes align more with AMPAS than other groups, that’s what it mostly is and what makes them so predictable/predictive (and this theory is just some mean assumption some awards watchers made at one point, and which was fueled by a few BFCA members boasting about being the best predictor for the Oscars – although I doubt any of them ever claimed they were trying to predict them), and I think this makes sense, since they’re somewhere between critics, industry people (since they cover the industry and clearly have a lot of ties) and regular people, which is very close to the Academy’s demographic, I reckon. Closer than the HFPA, I would say. Definitely closer than the average critics group. Arguably about as close as BAFTA – despite the voter overlap there – because they’re American and have no British bias. Not closer than guild voters, obviously. The ranking makes sense. The guilds are the most predictive (on the whole – some less than others, especially in the tech categories, because those are smaller in AMPAS so there’s less overlap), followed closely by BAFTA and BFCA, in some order that’s not really very clear at all (in picture it’s clearly the BFCA that’s ahead, though), then HFPA (not in picture, although they have some useful stats there too, but more so in the other categories), then critics groups. The Gold Derby awards are also pretty high on the list, because they’re a large group indicating consensus, they’re also industry-adjacent, etc.
Got to be a Nomadland win coming up.
Well, Critics’ Choice had a tie on the movie side: Editing. That’s 5 years in a row of ties.
That at least seemed like a real tie. Not a suspiciously convenient tie like Gaga/Close is actress or Bong/Mendes in director.
Congrats to Fennell. I guess this means Mulligan is a shoe-in for Actress here (let’s hope).
yep a progressive choice.
And on International Women’s Day (well it is here now)
Not a good sign for Chicago 7
i was expecting Sorkin to win. Nice that someone else did!
i was expecting Sorkin to win. Nice that someone else did!
Yup, probably. Even worse for it is that Nomadland won in its category…
Chadwick’s wife’s speeches are so elegant. I can’t imagine what she will prepare for his Academy Award! What an eloquent, beautiful soul she is.
Yeah, I was dreading this moment – it’s so painful just to think of what they (her, his family) went through and what bittersweet feelings they must be feeling – but she just always knows just what to say and turns it into something wonderful, as sad as it is…
spot on Claudiu – she prepared well but spoke from the heart. Perfection!
I really hope they can convince Kendrick Lamar to perform All the Stars in the In Memoriam segment this year.
Poor Quibi; they can’t buy a break. 4 of the 6 noms in Short Form Series and still lost (!).
It doesn’t even exist.
Talk about canceling out/splitting the vote.
You voted a fact down. Woah.
It did back then. Yeah, they’re done NOW.
She just knows what to say… Beautiful!
Also, ProYo did win screenplay – that’s amazing! SO deserving…
How is this ever supposed to finish in less than an hour?! (Even if they present several movie awards off-screen.)
I share your concern. 18 more categories in the next 39 minutes?
Clearly, around 70-80% of them won’t get full on-screen presentations.
Perhaps there’s….gasp….too many categories?
Clearly, around 70-80% of them won’t get full on-screen presentations.
Every awards lately, from the People’s Choices on up except for the Oscars and Emmys don’t allot themselves the full 3 hours in prime time to have every category on air. Its been a distressing trend for the past 3-4 years now.
Yeah, that blows.
I think in the long run they’re going to lose viewers because of this, not gain them. Those “other awards” are such a huge part of the charm of an awards show…
Anya Taylor-Joy. Just her. Michaela fans will not do a dance of joy ($1 to the old ABC comedy Perfect Strangers).
You seriously cannot stop being a prick. Every year you pick someone to vomit on and really never stop. Such a repugnant way to be.
Still sticking to the the racist, sexist, misogynystic bs, huh.
STFU. There was no racism in that post and you fucking well know it. Michaela fans have a right to be pissed at how she’s being overlooked for an actress who starred in a miniseries about *chess*.
I guess I am just still pissed off about that racist Tracee Ellis Ross rant of yours.
There was no racism there, either. I believe (opinion only) there was one broadcast network comedy lead actress “slot”. Nobody on the Big 4 put forth a better case for herself than Bell. Due to the political uproar in the country last summer, the academy didn’t want #EmmysSoWhiteAgain, so they went with Ellis Ross.
Remember;
1) She hadn’t been nominated in 2019, suggesting the Emmys had moved on from her as a viable option;
2) Season 6 of blackish didn’t get enough votes on *either* Rotten Tomatoes OR Metacritic to get an average rating from them. Which suggested hardly any critics were inspired to see that season and moved onto other comedies;
3)The aforementioned 100-1 odds TER got on Gold Derby on nomination day. Again, moving on; there’s a theme here.
When the rubber met the road, the Academy told Bell to move on; like Lauren Graham and Courteney Cox, you’re never gonna get anything from us except the back of our hand. Even with your career-best role in your show’s final season that was the #1 trending topic pretty much everywhere in North America and Europe on the night of the series finale, and peaked at #4 worldwide on Twitter.
BAFTA’s Best Film hasn’t matched the Academy’s Best Picture in years:
2014: BAFTA, ”Boyhood”; Academy: ”Birdman”
2015: BAFTA, ”The Revenant”; Academy: ”Spotlight”
2016: BAFTA, ”La La Land”; Academy: ”Moonlight”
2017: BAFTA, ”Three Billboards”; Academy: ”The Shape of Water”
2018: BAFTA, ”Roma”; Academy: ”Green Book”
2019: BAFTA, ”1917”; Academy: ”Parasite”
Will BAFTA and the Academy split again? (I’ve preferred BAFTA’s picks more.)
I think this is the year the streak ends…
I think I like the Academy’s a bit more, overall. The only movies on those two lists I didn’t care for much are Roma and The Shape of Water.
I think I like the bafta choices more over the last 6 yrs
AND Palm Springs wins (Joyce Eng just knows) – further shows they have better taste in comedy. 🙂 (Again, from my perspective. In general, I’ve been a fan of their picks in this category. The Big Sick winning in this category three years ago was one of my favorite awards moments ever – even though I also liked Lady Bird a lot.)
Just realized watching black panther that Boseman and Kuluuya were in the blockbuster superhero film. Kuluuya was good but Boseman was excellent as that superhero.
Kaluuya’s role was thankless and best in show were Jordan, Wright, Gurira and Duke’s show-stealing mini role. Freeman was the worst. Boseman character was better written in Civil War although he didn’t fit in there.
Fargo should’ve won best picture over the English patient. That movie is a classic example of when Frances McDormand had class. She still does but Fargo is what made her on the Hollywood walk of fame. Going back to this year Frances McDormand’s nomadland is what I like to call a slow burner. The movie’s strength is in it’s cinematography and directing but it’s editing, it starts out really great but by the middle of the movie i was underwhelmed
Glenn Close still not doing great BUT neither the BFCA nor the HFPA have any overlap with Oscar voters so she is still in there with a shot as long as she wins the SAG and secures the Bafta nomination however without those two, there won’t be much to suggest the kind of widespread industry support one usually needs for an Oscar win.
P.S. Still no big recovery moment for Seyfried. That Bafta nod will be crucial.
Somebody has to win, though, and Foster has big nomination issues while Bakalova has got that anti-comedy bias to contend with…
Glen won everything two years ago and still lost the Oscar!I think she is still in the race.
Close lost BAFTA.
And her competitor (Colman) ALSO won the globe
Yup, Close won Critics’ Choice, Globe & SAG for ”The Wife & lost Oscar.
Close lost BAFTA. Dont forgether competitor (Colman) ALSO won the globes
I think the stunning overdue narrative may have clouded our judgment back in the day because in retrospect, writing was on the wall. They were split down in the middle as far as precursors went (SAG+GG vs. Bafta+GG) and Colman probably had a slight edge because her film was an overall contender while Close was her film’s only nomination. I was just as shocked as anyone when she didn’t win but looking back, it shouldn’t have been as unexpected as it was.
I have a feeling that this week they will announce a host for the academy awards. I also this week is the pga, Dga, American society of cinematographers and the ee baftas..
I still can’t believe Carey won! 🙂 And the screenplay. I’m just so happy about those!…
Anyway, to summarize the new stats situation, here’s the updated BP win stats table, first (top 15, including all serious contenders for the BP nomination – and a few that aren’t, really, but have done well in the critics phase and such):
Nomadland 81 (weighted total) 39 (straight key nomination/win count)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 74 34
Promising Young Woman 71 32
Minari 57 26
One Night in Miami 53 23
Mank 47 20
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 43 19
The Father 39 18
Sound of Metal 36 18
Da 5 Bloods 36 17
First Cow 23 12
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 23 10
Judas and the Black Messiah 20 10
News of the World 19 9
Soul 18 9
Individual notes:
Nomadland
I think it’s a big favorite right now. Reasons:
– all Oscar BP winners in the BFCA era (and a little before that) have won (or tied for) picture, director or screenplay at either the Golden Globes or Critics Choice (this year, that’s only Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm);
– all Oscar BP winners in the BFCA era have won either picture, director, screenplay or one of the four main acting awards at the Critics Choice (this year, that’s Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Judas and the Black Messiah and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm);
– every single PGA winner in the BFCA era (which means 25 years, not including this year) except for Apollo 13 (which is also, by the way, a marvelous case in point about why non-industry stats should never be underestimated, a movie that won PGA+DGA+SAG, was snubbed for directing but was facing a movie with zero SAG nominations in Braveheart, the WGA winner, and probably the biggest clue as to why it did win was that it didn’t manage to win picture, director or screenplay at the Globes or Critics Choice – see the stat above) and Gravity (which only tied, anyway, for the PGA win, and, besides, it was the Globe and BFCA winner for directing, which means the list of movies that qualify according to this stat wouldn’t change because of it anyway, as Nomadland is also both of those things) has been either the GG/BFCA picture winner or one of the BFCA screenplay winners* (which this year means just Nomadland, Promising Young Woman and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm);
– I won’t list the many stats issues the Borat movie has, since nobody thinks it’s winning Best Picture at the Oscars anyway, but more on why Nomadland seems a clear favorite to me over the only other contender that ticks all of these boxes, Promising Young Woman, below!
* And the two exceptions before that, when there were only the Globes to win in screenplay or picture, The Silence of the Lambs and The Crying Game, both won the screenplay Oscar, so they probably would have won the Critics Choice for screenplay too, in a world in which that had already existed. (And Silence may well have won that for picture, in addition.)
Finally, the main thing that, in my opinion, makes Nomadland the number one favorite to win the PGA (now that Trial seems to have been pegged back significantly) and, implicitly (especially since it also has shown that it’s the front-runner for screenplay), Best Picture at the Oscars, is the fact that 19/20 PGA winners since the AFI have been naming a top 10 were mentioned by them (two of them given special awards, as they were ineligible for the main list) – the only exception is Slumdog Millionaire (which, by the way, was also British and thus ineligible for the top 10, and they apparently didn’t do special awards yet at that point, the first time they gave one out was two years later). And neither Promising Young Woman nor Borat Subsequent Moviefilm were, this year, while Nomadland was. It’s still hard for me to grasp that Nomadland will win that (I guess they’ve awarded somewhat “quiet” movies before, but never to this extent, I would say), so I wouldn’t be shocked to see a stats upset and have Trial win it, nonetheless, but we’re talking about what the stats are saying here. And these stats are already quite strong. 95% plus, 20-years-or-more sample size. Not unbeatable, but damn strong! I would say we’re getting close to lock territory. Definitely not there yet, but it’s drifting in that direction very, very quickly.
One more point: 9 of the last 10 (and 11 of the last 13) Phoenix Film Critics Society Best Picture winners went on to win either the PGA or the Oscar for Best Picture or both (La La Land only won the former, Spotlight only won the latter – Joker, last year, is the only one of the last 10 that won neither, and The Hurt Locker is the only other preferential era one), which is another massive argument for Nomadland’s chances there, as it was the one they went with this year.
The only real stats problem Nomadland has is the SAG Ensemble miss, which is better expressed as a stronger stat, the one about no Oscar BP winner in the SAG era since Braveheart (it’s important to point out that there is this one exception which proves the stat isn’t unbeatable) has had both no ensemble nomination there and not at least two acting nominations. This stat is also not so convincing logically (as in it can be argued against, unlike other stats which just make perfect sense in addition to having strong percentages), because 1 acting nomination isn’t so far from 2 acting nominations (which is all Green Book and The Shape of Water got at SAG – though the former also won a category, but McDormand hasn’t lost yet, either), so the difference in outcomes could be random more than anything, or one acting nomination (as opposed to none, like Roma or 1917) could be close enough to the minimum requirement that beating the stat from that position could be significantly easier than for the average contender (which may have one or zero, may not be as strong as Nomadland otherwise, etc.). As for the ensemble stat on its own, that already has 3 exceptions in 26 years, so it’s barely a stat anymore (I don’t think of such stats, with <90% matching records, as particularly serious stats, in a category where we get so many better clues every year, but as, at most, guides for when nothing else can clarify the race, which in BP is almost never the case - and for the weakness count in my system, which I think makes perfect sense and is proven to work best, anyway), at least in the AFTRA era. (That merger remains the most logical explanation for the two failures in quick succession that followed for the so-strong-before that, even if already not unbeatable, SAG Ensemble stat.)
This SAG ensemble-or-two-plus-acting nominations stat is also relevant for the PGA, clearly, so Nomadland is not locked to win there by any means. It's only been beaten once for the PGA win (last year, actually, by 1917 - they just couldn't get themselves to give it to the foreign film yet, and maybe whoever it was that was advancing this theory the other day is right and, had the season been a longer one, not a shortened version so beneficial to 1917, Parasite would have won there as well, or maybe Once would have instead), so maybe this means Promising Young Woman (which is in the same boat as Nomadland in terms of this one) is only third in line for the PGA win, still, behind Nomadland and Trial. I believe the stat that says Trial is unlikely to win the PGA (mentioned above) is a lot more convincing than this stat Nomadland (and ProYo - which, however, also has the AFI issue) are up against, but I could be wrong, of course. (And their percentages are similar, plus Nomadland's is industry while Trial's isn't and, again, Trial makes more sense if we look at their past winners, way more sense - ProYo also makes more sense than Nomadland.) We'll know soon enough. I'm still rooting for another wacky season to test my system further, so I hope either Nomadland doesn’t win the PGA or it gets snubbed for editing at the Oscars. But I expect it will somehow clear both hurdles, the way things are going, for its opposition in particular. (Its having won GG+BFCA picture/director is, in itself, not a particularly big deal, in terms of its Oscar BP-winning chances. It’s what the others haven’t been able to do that’s making it look closer and closer to a lock, despite the SAG issue.)
Promising Young Woman
It’s technically still in third in the table (more minor misses than Trial) but for me it’s second in the race now, in terms of the stats. Its only real problems are:
– the aforementioned SAG ensemble-or-two-plus-acting nominations stat (big, but not unbeatable, and it’s sharing it with Nomadland, the front-runner, anyway);
– missing the AFI top 10 (in the 20 years of that list being published, it seems only The Departed is a clear, unassailable exception – it’s enough to make the stat beatable, though, and there’s Slumdog which can be argued to be an exception too, if one thinks they just didn’t like it enough to bother giving it a special mention, rather than not having thought of that option yet);
– not being among Peter Travers’ top 10 (the last 21 Best Picture Oscar winners all have been – but there are several exceptions before that, so this is also far from an unbeatable or water-tight stat, particularly as there’s no clear reason to think anything changed between those first years and the last 21 for Travers that would explain/suggest this improved matching record as more than just random variance);
– a few other minor stats in the 90% range or with small samples and shaky logic, which I don’t really use as anything more than decent early indicators and discount pretty much entirely so late in the race, because history proves such stats fail very often, if they need to, because of the much stronger stats aligning in favor of a movie that would break them.
Overall, I would say it’s very much alive, even if it’s a clear underdog to Nomadland at this point. It goes without saying that it absolutely needs that WGA win to confirm that it’s an actual contender in the top category and not just a movie the BFCA liked more than others and a vehicle for Carey’s Best Actress campaign. And it could really do with upsetting Nomadland at the PGA. Unlikely, though – and, generally speaking, I’ve never thought it was likely to win Best Picture at the Oscars, intuitively. But stats-wise and even logically it’s in the running. More than most others.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Very bad outcome for it here. If it had at least won for supporting actor, its stats and its logical case wouldn’t look quite so bad… But it didn’t, and it lost screenplay. Some of its biggest stats issues were already mentioned in the Nomadland section, above, but here are some more:
– all Oscar BP winners in the BFCA era (25/25) won either picture or director at the Globes or Critics Choice or screenplay at Critics Choice (or, again, in Parasite’s case, tied for one of these prizes), which Trial hasn’t (a slightly amended version of the stat above which shows that GG screenplay just isn’t enough, by any stretch);
– it also still has that old issue of not having won anything at NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA, while the last 14 Oscar BP winners had at least two such wins, usually both (and always at least one) above the line;
– it, too, like Promising Young Woman, has a number of minor stats-relevant misses in the critics phase (such as the NBR top 10), in the 90% range.
Looking less and less likely. No unbreakable industry stats to beat yet, but it feels like it’s coming (for instance, if it misses directing and fails to win the WGA, both of which look like real possibilities at the moment), given all of these gigantic non-industry clues about its weakness in the race. It’s definitely in way, way worse shape than Promising Young Woman. For now. The PGA could change that. (Because, if it wins that, as I’ve said elsewhere, it’s hard to see it then losing the WGA, as the early favorite in the category. Those two go hand in hand a lot when the PGA winner is in the conversation for the screenplay win at all.)
The rest…
These, in addition to the no-above-the-line GG/BFCA win stats mentioned in the Nomadland section (unless otherwise specified):
– Minari: no GG picture/screenplay nominations (no Oscar BP winners ever in the years with nominations at the Globes have had this issue – and the directing snub there also doesn’t help one bit), no BAFTA Best Film nomination (since it’s not shortlisted – 23 of the last 23 Oscar BP winners had that, apart from Million Dollar Baby, which wasn’t seen in time and got zero BAFTA mentions, and before that BAFTA were post-Oscars, had 4 nominees in Best Film, a different eligibility period, etc., literally all of which changed around the year 2000) and a lot of other things in the critics phase;
– Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: no GG picture/director/screenplay nominations, same as Minari, the GG/BFCA picture/director/screenplay win stat (again, 100% all-time, 25+ years), no Critics Choice directing nomination (17/17 all-time) and many, many more;
– One Night in Miami: same GG problems as Minari, except it got the directing nomination there, which really doesn’t change much without the rest, the NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA problem Trial has, etc.;
– Mank: the SAG stat Nomadland has to beat and the no-above-the-line GG/BFCA win stats, the NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA problem and several other serious ones from the critics phase (more serious than Trial’s and ProYo’s);
– Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: its stats issues are, again, honestly too many (and too big) to even bother listing. Its GG picture win in comedy and two acting wins so far (Cohen/GG + Bakalova/BFCA) are the only real reasons I’m forced to mention it at all. (I guess it also has the WGA nomination.)
Sounds depressingly locked… The stats apart one could think that Minari has a lot of things working for it, especially on a preferential ballot, based on its emotional impact and Academy-friendly genre as a traditional family drama. It might be a bit too humble in it´s tone (something that is part of the reason I enjoyed it so much) to be considered a likely Oscar winner. But on the other hand: I just can´t shake off my impression of Nomadland as a really exhausting viewing experience… 😉
But like you said in a different post, it´s competitors all have obstacles too!
I am firmly wedged in between both your take and Claudiu’s right now. My heart says AMPAS will go for something uplifting; my head says that it doesn’t necessarily work that way!
Yeah, they don’t always go uplifting. And they can link together less uplifting BP wins, in fact – they tend to: the much-mentioned around here The Departed – NCFOM – The Hurt Locker series, the 70’s streak… They have their moments when they go darker for a while.
The only way in which Minari doesn’t make sense as a winner is that it’s too close to Parasite’s win and they never do the same thing (essentially) back to back. This is why I’ve never seen it as a real contender for the win. But yes, other than that, on paper, it looked quite good.
I genuinely never understood why people are comparing Minari to Parasite. I think they’re very very different. Is it because the foreign (here: Korean) language thing?
But that’s enough. 🙂 That’s too much of a similarity, given the way the Academy operates.
I would say the same thing about any foreign film winning the year after Parasite, to be honest, that would also seem like too much to me. They just don’t do that sort of thing. Not back-to-back. Not in Best Picture.
thanks for all of this Claudiu – invaluable!
My pleasure!
Great analysis as always.
My concern with Nomadland. It will win BP at the BAFTAs (aka The Kiss of the Death). If it doesn’t get PGA to balance that, it’s probably not winning Best Picture.
:)) I love that one! (But, in all seriousness, you have to figure that streak will end at some point – soon – too. It’s getting a bit ridiculous. Like, how are they even doing it?! Do they have a mole within PWC? And have for some reason decided they never want to match the Oscar result?)
Glenn close is overdue for an oscar. She’s the only thing good about hillibilly elegy.
Close deserves to win supporting actress Oscar – simply because it is the best supporting performance of the year. None of the other candidates had so a complex part and nobody could have pulled it off as well as Close. Sentimentality or dislike of movie shouldn’t influence the choice. Glenn Close deserves to win because of the performance. The fact that she should have won at least three Oscars before should not count – the performance is strong enough to deserve a win. But I fear this is a year, where skill doesn’t count like when Kim Basinger won 🙂
Top 5 Chadwick boseman performances
1. Ma Rainey’s black bottom
2. Black panther
3. 42
4. Get on up
5. 21 bridges
Why are the Screenplay categories never shown at the Critics Choice Awards? I am surprised that ‘Trial Of the Chicago 7’ lost this. ‘Promising Young Woman’ is certainly a threat to win the Oscar as is ‘Minari’.
Big, comprehensive stats post on BP coming once I’m done researching a few additional things. Within the next hour, probably.
Big, comprehensive stats post on BP coming once I’m done researching a few additional things. Within the next hour, probably.
Nomadland does not have a cast ensemble nomination.
At screen actors guild
Maria bakalova or the grandmother from minari
Is anti-Netflix sentiment harming Mank and Chicago 7
I don’t think so. I think it’s just the films themselves.
I’m beginning to wonder. If either had a theatrical run would they be winning more
If theatrical run existed this year, Promising Young Woman would be as strong as Get Out. Would be neck and neck with Nomadland competing for Best Picture.
Interesting comparison. I saw the Invisible Man as the metoo “version” of Get Out, more so than Promising Young Woman
The Invisible Man is one of the best blockbusters I’ve seen this decade. But it lacks the auteur touch… the aesthetics… that both Get Out and Promising Young Woman have.
A first film can’t really define someone as an auteur
Get Out did though. As did Reservoir Dogs. It’s rare…but it happens from time to time
The notion of an auteur in auteur theory as defined by Francois Truffaut literally refers to a filmmaker’s work being a unified whole where despite the material given their personal voice is expressed and the ideas they are interested in pop up and thus they have as much of an influence on their films as an author of a novel would. Reservoir Dogs can be looked at as part of an explanation of why Tarantino might be an auteur but Reservoir Dogs alone in 1992 could not have proven that Tarantino is an auteur because proving unity within a filmography with one film doesn’t really make much sense. And while Jordan Peele absolutely has the first signs of an auteur, I don’t think two movies is enough to prove such unity either.
You think? I think Leigh Whannell is on his way. Checkout his “Upgrade” if you haven’t yet
I actually think it would have been weaker. I feel like the Sundance reviews didn’t imply “one of the best movies of the year” level buzz but something slightly more mixed and wasn’t it originally supposed to be released in April (at least I remember having a ticket to a festival screening of it around then and having a vague notion of it coming out in the US at that time)? Talk about the movie might have calmed down considerably in 8 months
Get Out was never considered an Oscar contender when it opened early in 2017. Neither was The Grand Budapest Hotel in 2014. Both ended up in the top 3.
Both remained in the conversation through critics and immense box office. If those Sundance reviews for this movie would have implied a general critical reaction, the buzz might have started out weaker and since it would have probably mostly been playing limited/semi-wide because Focus doesn’t often do really wide releases, it probably wouldn’t have been able to claim a “cultural moment” status like for example Get Out did. I also feel that the buzz increased throughout the months for this movie partially because unlike most movies in the Oscar race this year, it’s the kind of filmmaking that would play well in a theatre. Instead had there not been a pandemic, there probably would have been other movies that would play well to a larger audience and Promising Young Woman would have lost that advantage.
You are probably making some confusion… take a look at the reviews for this film that arrived until the first week of February (presumably people that watched it in Sundance). 38 reviews. 37 positive.
The reviews were somewhat positive yet the highest ratings that it got on Metacritic during that time were 83s with the general consensus being around 70 (in fact most of its best reviews came out in late 2020 and early 2021). Compare this to Get Out, where by the close of February it had 21 reviews with a higher score than 83. Thus those reviews don’t imply a critical push in a traditional situation, box office with an independent film rarely gets a film noticed and the awards pundits didn’t seem to raise it into the top positions out of Sundance either.
Maybe it is anyway. 🙂 Stats-wise it’s not that far off. I wouldn’t say it’s done worse than Get Out. (But Nomadland has maybe done better than The Shape of Water, that’s true.)
Promising Young Woman scored Directing and Writing at the Globes but Get Out scored AFI, SAG ensemble and one thing that is neglected most of the times… Get Out was a juggernaut at the Independent Spirits. The red signs for Three Billboards started there. Promising Young Woman was snubbed there…
But Get Out missed the GG directing AND screenplay lineups. Big problem. Bigger than AFI, I’m pretty sure. (The small AFI sample size makes it hard to be completely sure.) Also later missed BAFTA BP, Oscar editing (both of which I think ProYo should hit) – and more…
I have a particular concern by the Independent Spirits snub… I have a very hard time to see a BP winner that misses an Indie Spirit nomination for Picture.
I agree, it’s a bit bizarre. But come on, objectively, that’s not an important stat! I’m sure the sample (years when BP winners were even eligible there) is quite small…
Nomadland is currently playing in the few theaters open in Denver.
I think what hurts them is that they have no real narrative. Especially Mank, Chicago 7 at least has the riot angle and being “timely”. The netflix thing probably doesn’t help, but it isn’t the main factor. Also the lack of popular support for both (again, especially Mank) is a factor.
EXCELLENT observation about Chicago 7. You’re right, what is the ultimate point of Chicago 7? They didn’t stop the war, in fact the war got escalated, and frankly the movie told the trial’s story in such an insular fashion it muted just how alarming Chicago 68 really was.
Mank came off as Roma II to me, respected but not loved.
Could be…
I think it’s a question that ought to be asked. Yeah, Cuaron nabbed Best Director, but the Netflix hysteria arguably kept the film from going all the way. Irishman had the same criticism. So why not Chicago 7 or Mank?
Absolutely. Yet another reason I don’t see Trial winning (anymore – it’s never clear how much these things will or will not matter, until it is, and not even then is it really clear, we still can’t be sure)…
Hell yeah, at least The Critics Choice got it right and rewarded Carey Mulligan’s ferocious, instantly iconic turn as Cassie in Promising Young Woman. If she gets the SAG Award, she probably gets the Oscar. And I doubt she loses BAFTA so I really hold some serious hope for one of the greatest and most fearless actresses of our time to finally get her long overdue golden statue.
I hate that there’s SAG in there too! 🙁 That will be so nerve-wracking…
any chance frank langella has a chance at a best supporting actor nomination. Man his performance as Julius Hoffman was compelling
Mank is this years the Irishman. Good movie, entertaining and fun to look at.
I think Irishman was more in the race, and a lot more entertaining IMO
And The Irishman and pretty much all of last year’s BP contenders would be top 2 contenders this year. Maybe Ford v Ferrari a third this year. And that’s it. The Two Popes would contend for Picture and Directing this year.
I agree that the Irishman is one of Scorsese’s best in recent years thats why it didn’t win last year. It was too good for awards
Only difference is Irishman won nothing where Mank will win Production Design… It’s a good comparison though – both are highly ambitious but flawed films by legitimate masters of cinema that will be mentioned everywhere but win very little.
I think last year was an all around much stronger year for film, for obvious reasons. That said I think Nomadland still will hold it’s own as a best pic winner.
The production design in Mank was here or there. The sets were authentic
I saw Judas and the black messiah this weekend-good movie very cinematic. I was kind of bored when I saw Nomadland this weekend. I couldn’t wait for the film to end.
I remember some people saying something similar about ‘Boyhood’. The problem with being a frontrunner.
I’m happy that tenet wins visual effects. Nolan’s films are always on a steamroll in that category
They had the field pretty much to themselves, I think. WW84? Too many ragged on Cheetah’s CGI. That hurt them IMO.
Oh the invisible man and soul had some interesting effects too. If they were 5 nominees for visual effects, they would be soul, Mank, tenet, the invisible man and the old guard
I would have given it to Invisible Man this year or Soul. Not a big year for the category.
Nolan’s ”Inception” (2010) won Critics’ Choice for Special Effects, but his other films – ”Dark Knight Rises” (2012), ”Interstellar” (2014) and ”Dunkirk” (2017) – lost.
Mulligan will win oscar before Amy Adams
One of them had better win soon, anyway – or else there’ll be heck to pay. Heck, I tell ya!… 🙂
I get the feeling you are saying this is disappointing… I am just happy with either of them having an Oscar – they both really deserve to have one by now.
Even when I like amy Adams, she has been always a filler nominee each time except with Junebug when she was 3rd behind Weisz and Williams
She should have won for The Fighter – but she lacked the wigs and the screaming Melissa Leo had.
She probably should have won for Arrival too. A lot of people should have won for Arrival.
Arrival remains my favorite film of 2016. Adams was obviously amazing in Arrival but I think Emma Stone is immensely underrated here. And I also would rank Huppert and Portman above.
Adams could have also won for The Master, but Hathaway had the Oscar scene.
No way , the best performance by a female that year was Natalie Portman in Jackie, then huppert, then probably adams
Oh no she was a completely filler in the master, sally field was second and hunt the third
Probable she was second for the fighter but for me helena was second for the kings speech
Big yes on Portman in Jackie. Major work. Ravaged, haunting, elegant. A seriously under-appreciated lead actress performance.
Natalie Portman did some amazing work in the 2010s. A seriously under-appreciated actress, even with an Oscar win.
The fighter was a very good film.
What a honked-up development this is. THIS is why we can’t have nice things. Adams should’ve won for Arrival, I agree.
Is Nomadland turning out to be an Argo/Slumdog type winner here?
Zhao is a force of nature this campaign season
Looks like it – but the SAG snub remains a concern. It can’t win that, like those two did. Nor can it win the WGA.
I would say Argo/Birdman, having looked at the precedents. (Because it has a major industry snub to contend with, like those did, but is destroying the precursors to compensate and will probably win both PGA and DGA – and would win WGA if it was eligible, by the looks of things.)
Looking that way…Still time for Chicago 7 to rebound. But Nomadland?
Well, Birdman didn’t destroy the pre-guild precursors, but it did in the big guild phase. 🙂 So I guess both comparisons are right, in different ways.
I just realized Trial can’t win now. That screenplay loss was huge. All Oscar Best Picture winners in the BFCA era won for either picture, director, screenplay or acting at the Critics Choice (25/25), and Trial hasn’t. We have a huge favorite on our hands now. The big 4 critics wins stat (at least 2, one of which above the line, at NYFCC/LAFCA/NSFC/NBR) will hold, it seems. I should have never doubted it. 🙂 Only question is: can Nomadland really win even the PGA now?!
That’s not how any of this works. None of these stats have a sample size nearly big enough to be definitive.
No Oscar stats have sample sizes big enough, lol… 92 is nothing, mathematically speaking. Yet they work. Consistently. Better than stats with much, much larger sample sizes in other fields (like sports). Because they’re based on the psychological tendency to want to be a part of things, on consensus, on influence, peer pressure and herd mentality and others such things. Which are not made up things. Stats are clues, big ones, and should be treated as such. This is a big, monumental clue that Trial isn’t winning. It’s not definitive. Nobody’s saying it’s 100% not going to win. But ignore this clue at your own peril! I won’t be so naive, at least not until I’m given better clues to the contrary. That is how this stuff does work. Trust me! Or don’t. 🙂 Makes no difference to me. If you give me argumentative reasons for why this is now how it works, then that I will listen to and consider. But if you just give me the usual stuff about sample sizes I’ve heard 50 million times before (which clearly has limited relevance here for the reasons I just gave, and more – I’ve had this discussion many times) and that has never kept any strong Oscar stat from working year after year after year, it won’t change my mind one bit. Believe me, I pay great attention to sample sizes too. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to ignore big clues just because math tells us they “technically” aren’t “admissible”. That’s BS. That’s math applied poorly to real life, in my opinion (sample sizes should be counted differently for Oscar stats, because each of those stats is based on hundreds or thousands of votes that go into the outcomes of each year), and in the many years since I first had this debate here at AD I’ve seen precisely nothing to convince me I’m wrong. I have, however, seen plenty that’s strengthened my conviction that I’m right. But feel free to prove to me mathematically/logically that I’m not! You may not think it, but I am extremely open to being proven wrong and have no real problem admitting that I’m wrong. But it will be a long discussion, of course, if you do come up with some strong arguments for your side. Because I’ve thought about all of this a lot too. Probably a whole lot more than you have. Always questioning things, always trying to make sure I’m being objective and rational about it all.
From 1933-1988 (more than five decades!), you had to have a best director nomination to win best picture. Then you didn’t.
From 1953-2014 (six decades!), you had to win at least two other Oscars to win best picture. Then you didn’t.
For twenty years you had to have a SAG ensemble nomination to win best picture. Then you didn’t.
Strong Oscar stats work year after year after year until they don’t.
You said it was 100% not going to win. That’s mainly what I was objecting to.
You can’t just start counting in 1933 because you feel like it. 🙂 The early Oscars matter and they contain two exceptions to the directing nomination rule. Ever. Even if you don’t want to count both exceptions (Wings and Grand Hotel) because there were only three slots in their category, you reasonably have to expect at least one of them (most likely Grand Hotel, since it got zero other nominations besides picture, which was very, very far from the average for BP winners even back then) would have missed even with 5 slots. So, not a 100% stat.
Same for the other one: the early years count. 3 movies won no other Oscars besides picture (again, Grand Hotel had no other nominations, too) and five more won only one other. Now, even with the reduced number of categories in the very early years (which was certainly no longer the case in 1953 or even the late 1930’s, when the most recent exceptions besides The Greatest Show on Earth and Spotlight happened, so those are just full-on exceptions), you can’t tell me you expect all (or even close to all) of those would have gotten to 3 with a few more categories in play! So, yeah, this isn’t a 100% stat either, nor is it particularly close. And it never was. There’s precisely zero logical reason to start counting in 1953, just as there’s no good reason to start counting in 1933 for the other one. So these were never unbreakable stats. They both broke year one. Like the SAG Ensemble stat, the third one you mentioned – with Braveheart. And we’re talking about long-standing 100% stats breaking here. Nothing else. Nothing close. Just that.
You’re also not talking about the dam bursting, when it comes to these. There have only been 3 exceptions for directing since 1989, and at least of them may well be due to the preferential ballot being reintroduced. (Only Driving Miss Daisy unquestionably falls outside of this.) Which also affects how many Oscars the BP winner gets, by all counts – the average has dropped substantially, Spotlight with its two (the only exception to that second rule you mentioned, since 1954) happened in this era, etc.
And I did not say it was 100% not going to win – I said it can’t win. That’s not quite the same. It’s close, but not quite the same. It’s more of a prediction than a claim of mathematical certainty. I do predict Trial can’t win. That’s my opinion, based on the stats. (Which I’ve already acknowledged repeatedly weren’t unbreakable.) Doesn’t mean I’m 100% sure of it, nor did I claim this.
Yes it is. Those two statements mean the same thing. If you’re now clarifying that your original statement was somewhat hyperbolic, ok then.
OK, fair enough – they’re not the same thing to me (and never have been) but of course you’re right, they’re more likely to be interpreted as the same thing by most people. I’m sorry for the confusion!
I am prepared to be bold and call “lock” on Trial not winning BP at the Oscars, though. I’ve never gotten one of these wrong, yet, as far as I can tell. But I do think there’s risk to it, I don’t think it’s 100% and did not mean the statement this all started from in that way. But, sure, why not, I’ll gamble! 🙂 It’s more fun that way and, besides, it’s never good for one’s objectivity/peace of mind to have a 100% record at anything, so if I break it, so be it! Won’t be a big deal.
So, I’m entering myself into the locks called database for 2021…
That seems like putting quite a lot of weight put on whether a movie won screenplay at the BFCA, especially since it’s an organization that has a strong reputation of awarding whatever they think might win an Oscar and this year has been completely different in terms of assessing those things.
Ultimately, in a close race, what the stats predict often comes down to one key win/snub somewhere that, had it gone differently, the balance of power reflected by precursor results would have shifted decisively in the other direction. I happen to think we’ve witnessed such a turning point/critical moment. Sure, most often, this comes later, in the guilds phase. But not always. I already mentioned Apollo 13. There is also a clear case to be made for the Spotlight-vs.-The-Big-Short being decided by the latter’s Golden Globe miss for directing. (And we could theoretically predict at that point already that it was these two that would be the top 2 by the end, given the SAG nominations that year.) Also, Parasite’s tie for directing keeping it in the race last year, Green Book winning two big Globes… There wasn’t much in that race, either. Point is, one can explain the outcomes of these incredibly close races with guild stats, as I like to do, but there are usually, maybe always, explanations that are just as good outside of the industry awards, which are mostly inconclusive in those years; I’ve been noticing this for a while now and it all adds up – I mean, guilds are clearly the best at predicting the Oscars, especially BP and the other above-the-line categories, but the Globes and Critics Choice are also pretty darn good, if the guilds don’t clear the matter up. And even just in general.
I just can’t help but feel that BFCA is almost like a synthetic precursor, it’s not necessarily measuring the type of industry support that the Oscars express but rather support in the side-industry of the Academy. And while one could say that also about the Globes, they have almost 80 years worth of correlating data that implies that the synthetic assimilation of measuring industry support is a pretty good one. Also, the Globe voters are subject to almost Academy member level treatment by people campaigning for Oscars which I think changes things as well. This to me proves that the Globes are a stronger precursor than BFCA and I don’t think I’d put that much weight on a Globe prediction in my best picture prediction either
Well, 20-25 years isn’t little either. More importantly, the BFCA are a bit better than the Globes at predicting the Oscars in many categories (and this is with the Globes having two of each in many of those categories), not just picture, which I definitely think should strengthen one’s confidence in their BP stats as well. I think under these circumstances a quarter of a century is probably also good enough to conclude they’re just a really, really good predictor. The Globes are also great at it, don’t get me wrong! But I think the BFCA are a bit better. I should do an analysis of this some day – which have more categories where they’re the more useful stats predictor than the other… (But, pending that, this is my impression, in general.)
“Also, the Globe voters are subject to almost Academy member level treatment by people campaigning for Oscars which I think changes things as well.”
Yeah, that’s their power. That’s what makes them good at predicting stuff, probably. (That and the early voice thing, which matters a lot.) Because, purely taste-wise, they don’t really strike me as all that in-tune with AMPAS.
It’s not just that – I already had the NBR/NYFCC/LAFCA stat that was always bugging me about Trial’s case and that I believe in quite a bit, in general, especially with the preferential ballot… Also, Cohen losing both here and at the Globes isn’t nothing. And Sorkin still seems shaky for the directing nomination, to me. Shakier than Nomadland for editing? Not sure. I guess that’s going to be the key clue for what wins Best Picture, simple as that.
But yes, good point, maybe this year in particular the BFCA stats might not be as reliable. It’s a risk. 🙂 I didn’t say it wasn’t risky. But I’m prepared to take it, I now genuinely believe Trial won’t win. “Famous last words”, probably. :)) Right about now a PGA win for Trial would follow… Anyway, this kind of logic has probably applied in other years, too, of the 26 of the BFCA era, and somehow the BP winner always gotten it done in at least one of these categories. (And it’s not rare that it was indeed just the one category.)
Obviously, system-wise, Trial is still the favorite now. 🙂 Because Nomadland and ProYo missed at SAG. But I expect that to change, as you can imagine.
(Also, like I said to somebody else today, I don’t believe there’s any actual evidence – solid, not anecdotal – that Critics Choice voters in fact try to predict the Oscars, in any category, rather than just vote for what they like and happen to have similar tastes to AMPAS, like, say, the Phoenix FCS, which certainly doesn’t take pride in predicting the Oscars, at least not openly. The BFCA do, but that doesn’t mean it’s intentional. They’re probably just using this opportunity for publicity because it happens to be there, not intentionally making it so in order to use it for publicity. Maybe, by now, subconsciously, they do try to predict the Oscars a bit too, but I bet this is true of many other groups or individual voters that have got nothing to do with the BFCA, as well! I wrote a long reply about it, somewhere lower in this thread. You can probably find it by looking for “never agreed with this theory”.)
I don’t necessarily think that they “predict” in their voting either but rather that the group consists largely of people whose job is not only to review movies in writing but to advertise them through different media (TV and radio critics) and people who seem to spend a lot of time in an Oscar headspace (online critics), and the former would in a normal year perhaps feel some kind of push from studios trying to force their Oscar contenders to people and the latter look at Oscar stuff all day so things must rub off eventually. And this year offers a particular challenge to these groups as for the former, there is probably considerably less in-person stuff and for the latter, the strange pace of the season might have thrown people. This might be relevant, it might not be, but I feel like it should be noted.
Yeah, very good point. Could be different in this sense, indeed. We shall see…
That is very bold Claudiu – I hope you’ll be correct! But my current prediction for Best Picture remains The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Eh, I almost never take risks. Sometimes it’s nice to do it… Give the people what they want… 🙂
“Strong” and 100% are two different things. When it comes to Oscar stats, at least.
What can win though by stats? Nomadland has several big stats against it by now – I’m sure no WGA (even if because of ineligibilities), SAG ensemble and less than 2 SAG acting nominees must be hard to overcome and I am sure there were other big things against it. It actually has hardly anything at guilds so far so it really needs to hit at all of the few places it is expected this week or it could seem in trouble too (though I would be very surprised if it missed PGA, DGA, ACE or ASC and they and McDormand at SAG are really all the guilds you would expect it to get).
I have it winning too but I am a little worried with it not getting in at the 15 nominee technical guilds (even if it is expected) that it could turn out to be Boyhood (but with a director win). Have you ever looked at stats around how many industry guilds is the minimum a film needs to get in at to win bp? I wouldn’t be surprised if there is something significant there but also maybe it is reasonably low…
No WGA may harm, but there’s definitely no big stat attached to being ineligible there. It wouldn’t even make sense, would it?! The lone SAG nomination is its biggest problem, clearly. But it can probably easily overcome that if it wins DGA+PGA. If it fails to win PGA, we probably have a race on our hands.
“and I am sure there were other big things against it”
Like what? 🙂 It’s missed nothing else that’s relevant. Tech guilds are precisely 0% important. 12 Years a Slave, among others, proved that.
I guess the other problem it could have would be if it missed editing at the Oscars (or ACE, obviously). That would put it in Roma territory. BUT with a likely screenplay win, which might be a key difference even then…
Spotlight was also a no-show with tech guilds, by the way. Argo didn’t do very well either… No, I don’t think there’s a stat there at all. The problem for Boyhood was it didn’t win PGA/DGA/WGA. Nomadlands is sure to win at least one and it looks like it would have won a second had it been eligible.
I never got the predictions for Trial. It doesn’t seem to give anyone the feels. I’m not sure what the rival to Nomadland might be but I doubt it’s Trial. Perhaps Minari or PYW.
Sacha Baron Cohen did his best to promote the spirit of Chicago 7 in his acceptance speech for the ensemble, but frankly Zhao and her producer did a better job of imparting that
Go ProYo!
Never say something can’t happen.
How many major stats have fallen at the Oscars in these last ten years?
A lot fewer than you think, probably. 🙂 100% stats don’t fall. That’s their thing. Sure, 25 is still semi-low for sample size (I like at least 30-40 years to be seriously confident) but it’s pretty close to not being…
Obviously, I’m not calling it or anything – this isn’t an industry stat. But I’m definitely not going to be predicting Trial from now on, unless something truly shocking happens moving forward. Even if Trial wins the PGA and WGA, as long as Nomadland keeps winning screenplay that’s probably our winner.
What if ”Trial” wins SAG Ensemble? ”Nomadland” is pretty much a non-factor at SAG: It’s not up for Ensemble, and I doubt anyone thinks McDormand, its sole SAG nominee, is going to win there.
What if ”Trial” wins SAG Ensemble? ”Nomadland” is pretty much a non-factor at SAG: It’s not up for Ensemble, and I doubt anyone thinks McDormand, its sole SAG nominee, is going to win there.
Although I guess there is that pesky SAG snub… Hmmm… So I guess it needs Trial to lose either SAG or WGA. Which, honestly, seems likely at the moment. Maybe it’s still the favorite for each, individually (I don’t know about the WGA), but I don’t think it’s the favorite to win both anymore.
Does that stat not account for winning ensemble and young actor/actress?
No, it has to be the Oscar categories.
So, only Nomadland, PYW, Judas and Ma Rainey’s could theoretically win BP at the oscars? That would make Nomadland the only plausible winner. I think a stat that is dependant on a group that has no oscar voters overlap and has only existed for 25 years isn’t that hard to break.
By the way, there’s also the stat that 28 of the last 28 Oscar BP winners won either picture, director or screenplay at the Globes or Critics Choice, which rules out all but Nomadland, ProYo and Trial, but Trial has the BFCA stat to contend with, which is why I now think ProYo is clearly in second place on the stats front. Might be a distant second, but second nonetheless…
I just checked and there’s not a single Oscar BP winner in the BFCA era that won only the Globe for screenplay of the 8 big prizes at GG and BFCA (picture-director-screenplay, with 2 picture categories at the Globes and 2 screenplay categories at Critics Choice). That’s Trial’s situation. So maybe In should even take that one out of the stat. 🙂 And only leave the other 7. Maybe I’ll do it if it holds this year – although I would probably hate the asymmetry too much.
But then again, there are only four other movies that have of those only won Globe Screenplay: Steve Jobs, The Queen, About Schmidt and The People Vs. Larry Flynt. Three of those are not really comparable and the fourth didn’t win any major guilds.
Fair enough. The Queen was probably comparable as a BP contender to Trial.
Because Trial hasn’t won any major guilds yet either and after tonight the WGA win looks shaky at best as well…
More to the point, perhaps: all BP winners in the BFCA era won at least one of the other 7 awards I mentioned and Trial hasn’t. 🙂 That’s got nothing to do with how strong or not the Globe screenplay winner is.
ProYo is far from out of it, stats-wise. I could see it upsetting and winning the PGA… And it sure is timely in its themes! I don’t think it’s dead. But yes, the other two are, for the most part. The stats they have to overcome are a bit too strong. ProYo’s biggest hurdle is having missed the AFI Top 10. Big, but far from unbeatable, I suspect.
“I think a stat that is dependant on a group that has no oscar voters overlap and has only existed for 25 years isn’t that hard to break.”
Like I said, I definitely don’t think it’s impossible to break, but I do think it’s very difficult – like I said, 100% stats running for that long just don’t break. (99% of the time, at least.) Particularly when they make as much sense as this one (remember, overlap or not, BFCA is easily one of the best predictors for Oscar wins in all categories, and showing so little strength here is a major problem because of that). What other 100% stats over 20+ years have broken recently? Not SAG Ensemble – that always had the Braveheart exception. What else?
It’s true that it is a strong stat, and I defenitely think Nomadland is the frontrunner. But I think we have to wait and see if it gets ACE and Oscar editing nominations. If it doesn’t get ACE it would have very weak guild support, weaker than Green Book. And I believe in an atypical year, long standing stats could be broken in BP.
Certainly, I agree 100%. 🙂 Like I said elsewhere, if it fails to get ACE/Oscar nods for editing, it’s in Roma territory. Still better off, though, because it has the one SAG acting nomination, and especially if it wins the PGA, which Roma didn’t. Also can’t lose the WGA (which Roma did) and will probably win screenplay at the Oscars (which Roma didn’t), also not a foreign/Netflix film. Compared to Boyhood and The Social Network it will have the DGA win (those had the SAG nod, it’s true). And maybe the PGA win.
I guess there can never be a total lock when the movie in question is missing a key nomination (SAG ensemble, in this case), but Argo came close to being that, for instance, despite the directing snub. Also maybe Titanic, despite its screenplay snub. And Birdman, despite the editing snub. They maybe weren’t locked but they were damn close, at the very least…
So if Chicago 7 did win at PGA, would that shift your prediction about Nomadland or would it find focus on another movie? Like the SAG winner or BAFTA winner (assuming Zhao takes DGA)
Also, Green Book wasn’t facing any WGA winners in BP. Trial, in all likelihood, will be. (Even if it isn’t Nomadland – which, by the way, unlike Roma, can’t lose the WGA, and probably won’t lose the screenplay Oscar now, either.)
Also, Green Book wasn’t facing any WGA winners in BP. Trial, in all likelihood, will be. (Even if it isn’t Nomadland – which, by the way, unlike Roma, can’t lose the WGA, and probably won’t lose the screenplay Oscar now, either.)
Could Trial win BP Oscar with PGA win and not the others you outlined?
And all of this doesn’t even take into account the possibility that Trial will be snubbed for directing by AMPAS… Also a factor.
absolutely, which might up end the Oscar outcome – deja vu Affleck style.
I don’t think Trial is overcoming that, the way Argo did… I mean, Green Book did it, but Roma was so much weaker a contender than Nomadland. (Unless it, too, misses for editing. I guess it might. Man, that would create such chaos again!…)
Also, this time the shoe’s on the other foot – the Netflix contender is the one that’s the underdog. Could make a difference.
Theoretically, yes. I’m not sure how my system would compare the two then. It might come out ahead because of the Nomadland SAG snub. But why would it win the PGA and lose the WGA?! I actually don’t see that happening, anyway, so I think this is moot.
I kinda see your point, but who knows how close the WGA vote might go – could be a surprise win (not Chicago 7) but it wins on the Preferential at PGA. All supposition, but interesting observation you made that cut right through for me, when you said Chicago 7 can’t win. Just trying to get my head around that.
I mean, I was predicting it (Trial) myself up to this point, but one has to try to be objective and big picture-minded and adjust to the new information. 🙂 And, based on that (and the earlier signs thrown in by the critics groups), it no longer even looks like a particularly big threat to Nomadland and whatever else will be in the race with it at the end. Remember, Green Book won not only the screenplay Globe but also Best Picture there, in a rather strong comedy/musical category (unlike this year) and with the drama winner being non-factor Bohemian Rhapsody!
Yep – I can see Chicago 7 winning PGA, but losing WGA to Promising Young Woman which would be an interesting turn, would it not?
I mean, I hope that happens. 🙂 I’m rooting for any and all ProYo wins this season. And, by the way, ProYo is by no means dead for the BP win! It has no major stats to beat just yet – the AFI miss is the biggest one. Would that count as industry? In any case, I think this BFCA stat is bigger than that, so I think ProYo is now in 2nd, logically speaking.
I think PYW may be divisive for the preferential ballot, but really all the big films have their hurdles. I would like to think and see Minari as #3 or #4 in the race.
Minari is doing SO poorly on all of these non-industry stats (the ones mentioned here, the Globe-only stats, etc.), I just don’t see it being as high as third. Maybe 4th, although Ma Rainey seems a better fit for that position to me.
sad face from me 🙁
I haven’t seen Minari yet, but I bet I’ll love it too! Movies about family have always been among my absolute favorites. My all-time favorite movie is one… And my all-time top 10 includes at least one more.
i think you will really like it too.
I wouldn’t take the globes snubs for Minari that seriously, they got a lot of bad press for putting it in foreign language and they are a spiteful bunch. I woulnd’t put it past them to snub a film because it made them look bad.
I mean, these are just assumptions… 🙂 If they really reacted so easily and radically to such things their stat wouldn’t be so strong over almost 70 years with nominations… Other such situations would have appeared and they would have done similar things to a BP winner eventually, thus ruining their stats. They haven’t.
Also, the BAFTA Best Film snub alone is probably reason-enough to have Minari nowhere near the top 3 most likely winners. (I think it’s around 5th, at the moment. 4th at best, but a very distant 4th. And super-unlikely to win at the end.) That’s never been beaten under conditions anywhere near similar to the current ones.
For the small indie that ”Minari” is, it’s making a big splash. It’s tied with ”Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” for the most SAG nominations: 3. ”Minari” also garnered 10 Critics’ Choice nominations, which is second only to ”Mank,” which had 12. (”Ma Rainey’s had 8.)
Yes, it’s making a big splash and might do well on Oscar night, but it’s not winning Best Picture. That’s all I’m claiming. 🙂
Apparently Chicago 7 isn’t even locked for WGA now (I mean, ProYo might just be the new favorite there), so no. (BFCA I think was a better WGA predictor than GG.)
If Trial wins PGA+WGA it becomes a race. I don’t think PGA will be enough. It was for Green Book, but what else won that and lost the WGA and DGA and won BP recently?! (Only Gladiator comes to mind at all.)
Is Chicago 7 aligned with Green Book (sentiment wise) with baby boomer voters, or Nomadland (generally speaking, i know), more resonant with younger voters, or voters looking for the sort of connection that Nomadland’s Producer spoke of? we will see i guess in the coming weeks
Yeah, it’s always so hard to figure these things out – I rarely even try anymore, to be honest. 🙂 It seems much more productive to just look at the stats and only the big, clear empirical evidence, rather than all this murky stuff…
after all these years, you and I know what we do best – you are the stat king, and I favour sentiment and sensibility (but pay attention to the stats and to the precursor – and what you have to say, Claudiu) 🙂
🙂 That’s a big art too. It’s not my strongest suit and never has been, which is why I decided at some point to focus on the stats. But that’s definitely also a very, very good way to predict.
And BAFTA doesn’t matter. 🙂 Besides, that’s 100% going to be Nomadland, they’re very unoriginal.
I almost cried – I was SO tense and scared she wouldn’t win… Whatever happens, at least the BFCA picked right. I should have trusted them – they usually do, as far as I’m concerned…
Wait, is even screenplay going to be skipped? (And listed at the end.) Ew…
All class and grace from Chloe Zhao
She’s got this all wrapped up
this is why the televised awards are important. For the speeches and the perceptions of the players. She used her time entirely to pay tribute to a dearly departed colleague.
The way they give these craft awards is insulting
At least there’s less of them this year.
Zendaya is the best.
Anyone expecting any upsets tonight?
I hope there aren’t any, just so Carey wins. I’ll take a boring show (in that sense) and a Carey win over the alternative… (Or even the chance of it.)
To me a Carey win feels like a bit of a surprise, but most nominees in that category would make a surprising win right now
Almost everybody is still predicting her…
Interesting. Category still feels wide open to me. If Day takes it again that would mean a lot
Yeah, that would definitely be pretty big… Still wouldn’t make her any kind of big favorite, given her SAG snub, but it would be a big sign, probably.
She’s good but the movie was a mess
FINALLY, somebody #BeatTheCreek. Congrats, Ted Lasso.
If you could harness this world-consuming hate into some kind of alternative energy source you could be rich
I remember when no one beat Fleabag.
Predetermined, that. she was the darling, the flavor of the moment. Style over substance.
The Good Place deserved a better fate than going 1 for 9 at the Critics Choices (Danson, comedy actor, 2018). If only they had been on a streamer instead of broadcast TV…
Did you even watch Fleabag? Be honest.
He has never seen
– Fleabag
– The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
– Schitt’s Creek
but he hates them all sight unseen because they dared to feature female leads in comedy shows who ended up receiving awards recognition that Blue is fully under the impression, only her one and only idol Kristen Bell deserves.
He also hates indie films and apparently I May Destroy You and Michaela Coel, I won’t speculate why but based on his track record, it’s not hard to guess.
Well he spends enough time shot posting on The Daily Wire or Mediate to convince me he’s not a big Trump supporter, if that’s what you’re implying.
Nope. I am implying his comments have sexist and racist undertones. Example for the racist undertone : he firmly believes Tracee Ellis Ross could only possibly receive an Emmy nomination last season because she is black and BLM made people vote for her. Deplorable af. Also a shit argument since this was her 4th nomination for this role, first three happening long before the events of 2020.
You are incorrect now and you were incorrect then.
Let us celebrate Maria’s win with the Moon Blood Fertility Dance!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a4329ef58f4e5ed92540a86b6b35aa3754773efb6ac02cefd0df7a89ca61733b.jpg
Damn, I love seeing those Limu Emu commercials – because, you know, in Australia we pronounce it “Eem-You”.
*le sigh* *le rolleyes*. Comedy Actress was a trainwreck, anyways.
No one ever upvotes you. Why do you love to just be consistently hated? I don’t get it.
Zach upvoted them.
Is that a good thing? This person just consistently vomits on great television. And who has said “le sigh” since 2012?
I am the last who would ever agree with FeelingBlue2018 but judging solely on upvotes? Really?
I guess the reason I enjoy these (and the ISA) more is they don’t try as hard as the Globe/BAFTA/Oscar producers to entertain in-between giving out awards. It’s more relaxed, more natural, or at least seems that way to me. Maybe that’s why the humour works better for me too. (I mean, they do bits too, but even those feel less try-hard to me.)
What they need to do is to stop the Schitt’s circlejerking and give us any clue as to how THIS SEASON’s comedy series have momentum towards July and the Emmy nominations. Boo on the BFCA for picking Palm Springs over Borat 2.
What they need to do is to stop the Schitt’s circlejerking and give us any clue as to how THIS SEASON’s comedy series have momentum towards July and the Emmy nominations. Boo on the BFCA for picking Palm Springs over Borat 2.
Blessings on the BFCA for picking Palm Springs over Borat 2.
Fuck yeah about that acting ensemble win for The Trial Of The Chicago 7. Every single cast member of Aaron Sorkin’s brilliant film deserves to be showered with every award possible.
Sacha killed it this year btw.
Yeah, I had my problems with it, same as other people, but the cast was killer…
For the record, last year’s Critics’ Choice winner for Ensemble was ”The Irishman.” However, SAG voters went for another ensemble: ”Parasite.”
Just did a quick Google: Over the past 10 years, the Critics’ Choice winner for Ensemble and the SAG Ensemble winner agreed 50% of the time.
Please, don’t remind us ;(
“Us”…?
Yeah, they often diverge. (Or, better put: they diverge often-enough.)
Jerry Seinfeld – nice! Also, I was wrong that there would be no ties. :)) Fifth year in a row where there’s at least one tie here, according to Wayman Wong’s earlier-posted list…
For what it’s worth, Comedy Special would be a tie on the TV side.
My earlier-posted list only counted the ties on the movie side.
Oh, got it! So the streak continuing is not yet secured. 🙂 (Although of course there’s the overall streak.)
The jokes for this are so much better than the ones written for the Golden Globe ceremony, in my opinion…
I thought the ceremony starts at 8 p.m EST?
Anyway, I am a bit baffled they didn’t go for Youn in Supporting Actress? But I’m glad they went with another critics favourite, Bakalova.
I was honestly hoping for an Amanda Seyfried win in the Best Supporting Actress category for her fantastic work in Mank but I’m incredibly happy to see Maria Bakalova’a terrific turn rewarded like that.
And Alan Kim is just adorable. He was crying like crazy. Wonderful performance in Minari, deserved as hell.
Yeah, Bakalova is also deserving, for sure.
She was phenomenal. I definitely won’t mind if she wins that Best Supporting Actress award.
I’ll mind because I’m rooting for a few of the others, but not because she doesn’t deserve it. 🙂
Omfg Alan Kim crying is the cutest thing ever.
I did not expect that… (The crying, I mean.)
Wow, what a surprise. I was expecting Youn Yuh-jung to win, but Alan Kim to lose (to Helena Zengel). I hope this could help boost Kim to a Supporting Oscar nomination, but the Academy has a real bias against boys. The last one to get nominated was Haley Joel Osment (”Sixth Sense”) in 2000!
Predictions seemed split between him and Zengel in this category. His win is definitely not a big surprise. But Minari needs more, the supporting loss hurts it a lot more than this helps it, most probably. It needs an above-the-line win, stats-wise, if it’s to somehow take BP at the Oscars.
GoldDerby.com was predicting Zengel to win; also, she had Supporting nominations from SAG and the Golden Globes. Kim didn’t. … Meantime, my fingers are still crossed for ”Minari.” Youn still has a shot there, and ”Minari” is up for Ensemble, too.
Glad I checked to see if there was a red carpet type of thing at 6 because I assumed the show started at 7. I’m glad I didn’t miss an hour lol.
Having said that yay for Kaluuya and Bakalova!!!
But what’s with the clips for TV categories but not the film category so far that’s pretty lame. It feels so rushed without them.Especially given the virtual nature of the show.
They did one for young actor/actress, so I guess it was just the supporting categories (which would be even lamer).
I had assumed the same thing but I always check for the time online beforehand, to make sure. It probably started at the same time last year and we just forgot. 🙂
They didn’t do clips for the film categories? That’s just bizarre…
Bakalova!
Streaming links?
https://www.stream2watch.one/streaming-television/the-cw-live-stream
And slightly behind/less HQ:
http://123tvnow.com/watch/cw-02032021/
Thank you!
I’ll pass this along to our friends in need.
Nomadland is, as expected, the stats favorite for Critics Choice in both picture and director (which has got nothing to do with its having won the Globe, although I’m sure that strengthens its case somehow):
– the last 25 (17) BFCA picture (directing) winners were nominated for the directing Globe, which narrows it down to five in both categories;
– all BFCA winners in these two categories have also been on their editing nominees list (since that award has existed, so about a decade), which narrows it down further to just Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Mank;
– and then it’s down to Metascore stats, unfortunately as it was at the Globes, and here Nomadland has the clear edge, as 23 of the last 25 winners in picture had an 82 or higher on Metacritic (Mank and Trial are both clearly below that);
– finally, in directing, 15 of the last 16 winners (with only 1917 an exception, but that one didn’t even win outright, it only tied Parasite, so it probably shouldn’t count at all) had an 85 or higher (which, of course, again only Nomadland does this year, of the three not ruled out by the other stats above, with “ruled out” used here in the most loose sense imaginable).
Nomadland is only somewhat hurt by the weaker stat related to its low nomination count (under 8, at 6) – so I guess either that one or the Metascore stats will fall (again) this year.