Thanks to the Awards Daily community for your participation on our in-house Oscar ballot. Your votes have been tabulated. Once again, thanks a million to Dr. Rob for giving us this deep dive into the preferential ballot process. The full-size charts are too large to embed in a post, so you can check the links below to examine the detailed breakdown and spreadsheets.
As proof of what a significant change it has made to have a solid 10 nominees, this simulated tabulation shows that when the top 3 films scoop up as many as 47% of the ballots in round one, the percentages for the next several film will necessarily fall off steeply. Since the remaining ballots are spread so thin for so many other great movies, we see that only 7 or 8 films would have met the 3% threshold for nomination that’s been in place the past few years. With 10 nominees, a much more interesting set of Best Picture contenders enter the history books — even if it takes 14 rounds of ballot redistribution to get there.
Pay particular attention to the column that tabulates the “First Round Percentage” to see how very far even the top favorites are from attaining the magic number of 50%+1, as a reminder why the preferential ballot of ranked choice is absolutely essential to reach a majority, ensuring that the contest is fair and the final results undeniable.
While it would be fun to see how the Best Picture nominees are ranked when official nominations are announced tomorrow morning, we know that’ll forever be an Oscar mystery. But Rob’s Oscar ballot project gives us intriguing hints.
(Bear in mind that we publicize this ballot widely on Twitter, so untold numbers of ballots are returned from a wide range of participants outside the circle of AD loyalists — we accept varied opinions from anyone anywhere all at once.)
As we learn nearly every year, movies in the top 3 slots are almost always so fast out of the gate, their positions are impossible to unseat in subsequent rounds. But it’s also remarkable to note that this year All Quiet on the Western Front had remarkable endurance in each round of redistribution — starting out in the 11th slot, and moving all the way up to secure the #6 position to become the serious threat that its BAFTA performance foresaw last week.
Check out the detailed charts to find other surprises.