A Deeper Dive into NBR and Oscar

One of the reasons the National Board of Review (despite the way film critics often brush them off) remains a good comparison with Oscar is because they have a long history to compare with the longest running awards groups, the other two being the New York Film Critics and the Oscars. All three have been around since the 1930s.

No one group will predict 100% how the Oscars will go. Eventually, the consensus will be clear: which films are in, which films are out. But be warned. Just because a movie isn’t on NBR’s top ten isn’t automatically indicative of what the Academy will do when all is said and done.

It’s always important to remember that each Academy member only have five slots to choose their favorites for Best Picture. Almost every other group that has a top ten gets to choose ten, not five, including the National Board of Review, the AFI voting committee, and the Producers Guild. They get ten. That often means their choices are going to be more broad.

The Golden Globes, like the Academy, only have five and that makes THEIR choices influential, especially their Best Director category, when they aren’t doing odd things like adding names that have no chance of making it to the big show.

There is no doubt that the films doing really well right now are A24’s First Reformed and Eighth Grade, If Beale Street Could Talk, and Roma from the indie side of things. On the studio side of things, though it is still very very early, A Star Is Born and Green Book are doing well-ish, though box office for the latter might come into play. Eventually word of mouth is going to push Green Book further than its starting point. First Man probably should have shown up at NBR, but I’m not giving up on that one yet. As you know, it’s my favorite film of the year and though I will accept the inevitable we’re not quite there yet.

Teetering (or in other words, it could go in either direction) would be: Can You Ever Forgive Me, Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns. We’re all hoping for BlackKklansman but it really has to show up at some point here to be in the race.

To understand the NBR’s influence, you just have to know that any kind of accolades ups the perception of a contender, because that award can be placed on an ad. That means people will watch the movie, or consider it at least. The Shape of Water won Best Picture without even being named on the NBR’s top ten. Everyone thought it was a big deal then but it didn’t turn out to matter very much, obviously.

The Oscar race for Best Picture is a very weird animal. The preferential ballot makes it almost impossible to predict how it will go. We’re just at the very beginning. Hold onto your butts.

Here is a quick look back on their top ten choices: