39 Responses for "Oscar Scratch-Off"

1. John October 17th, 2008 at 1:37 pm 1

   I wouldn’t completely scratch-off ROAD or READER yet. But to me, things are looking pretty good for 7 or so films: Dark Knight, Slumdog (underdog), Australia, Defiance, Milk, Revolution Road, The Wrestler … for Best Pic at this point. But a lot could change, and probably will.

2. Paul Outlaw October 17th, 2008 at 1:42 pm 2

   You can scratch off Appaloosa too, except maybe Viggo for Supporting. Zellweger’s performance killed that film’s chances for awards glory.

3. Paul Outlaw October 17th, 2008 at 1:43 pm 3

   But add Rachel Getting Married…

4. Sertan October 17th, 2008 at 1:45 pm 4

   I would definetely add Rachel Getting Married to the best picture list (this year’s Juno or Little Miss Sunshine)..I just saw (literally left the movie theatre 20mins ago) Happy-Go-Lucky and I am not impressed at all. If i were to rank them, Anna Hataway, Melissa Leo and then Sally Hawkins who seemed to be overacting, imitating. I think the guy who plays driving instructor deserves nod more than Ms. Hawkins

5. matt October 17th, 2008 at 1:45 pm 5

   if we are talkin best picture there are a few that need to be scratched:

   appaloosa, vicky cristina, synechdoche, changling, che and the visitor.

   and i would add rachel getting married, happy go lucky, and the wrestler…

   but thats just me…

6. Pierre de Plume October 17th, 2008 at 1:52 pm 6

   I love it.

7. jennybee October 17th, 2008 at 2:10 pm 7

   Nicely done. Heading to the Kwik-E mart to buy me some now. : )

8. Matt Mazur October 17th, 2008 at 3:01 pm 8

   This is a pretty crazy year, overall.

   I mean, last year would anyone have dared to predict Mickey Rourke would be the favorite?

9. Saltire Flower October 17th, 2008 at 3:05 pm 9

   With the way things are going TDK might not only get a best picture nomination but might actually win the Oscar by default. Hell, they might even remember to nominate Wall-E.

10. sartre October 17th, 2008 at 4:05 pm 10

    Hilarious Ryan, and a clever reminder of how thin and the current BP Oscar field is looking.

11. sonnymoscoso October 17th, 2008 at 4:22 pm 11

    Scratch everything, just leave
    The dark knight, Ben Button, Milk, Australia and the Juno of the year that might be Slumdog or Rachel…

    Anyone still doubting The dark knight is not gonna be a best pic nominee?????

12. Oshu Huddleston October 17th, 2008 at 4:50 pm 12

    How…again…is the list DWINDLING? I don’t see many problems with this list? SoMeoNe eveidently has set their standards higher this year. . . . .

13. Ryan Adams October 17th, 2008 at 5:08 pm 13

    Still plenty of promising films to look forward to, Oshu, but a lot of us had high hopes for The Reader and The Road.

    I’d personally latched onto Miracle at St Anna after I read the script, and The Soloist was supposed to complete this year’s trifecta for Robert Downey Jr.

    Frost/Nixon looked like a bear-trap of Oscar bait… until the first reviews appeared. But Ron Howard is immune to reviews, so who knows? It might still be a player. If two guys with funny hair talking for two hours sounds like a player thing.

14. Togo October 17th, 2008 at 5:14 pm 14

    I have yet to see Rachel Getting Married! I shall tomorrow! Btw, are there any foreign films we might be forgetting? Though, seeing that nothing has really made a fuss yet doesn’t bode well for anything. W. is getting horrid reviews. I feel that Australia will too, but might be nominated. Revol. Road….also a nom? Two romantic period pieces? My bet is on RR.

    My list:
    TDK, RR (it’s Mendes, but I feel something horribly wrong is going to happen…Leo/Kate WILL be nominated though), Rachel Getting Married/Slumdog Millionaire (fighting for that indie love), Milk…and if only the Academy could get over itself…Wall-E.

15. tmoves October 17th, 2008 at 5:17 pm 15

    Wow, I see ‘The Chartmaster’ has not died. What began last summer as a budding late-night (early morning) ‘come on boys, help me out’ assemblage project has blossomed into a true art form. And now, dare I say, it shows some signs of whimsy. Nice chart, Cap’n. Scratch-off ticket genius. Way to bring it to the heartland, Ryan. I think you just ‘Joe the Plumbered’ it. Well-played, Mr. President. (Vice?)

    Yeah, we are adwindlin’, aren’t we? I already voiced my frustration with THE ROAD on the other thread (gorgeous movie tie-in paperback cover tease). But now THE SOLOIST. The last film I saw at the theatre was RACHEL GETTING MARRIED. I really thought it was wonderful and had a brilliant cast. If that film doesn’t get a SAG for ensemble… But I’m not sure about the BP race at Oscar. One of the wonderful things about that film was Demme’s focus on some of the non-plot points. Those sublime scenes of the dancing and the dishwasher-loading come to mind. But somehow those brilliant moments are the ones that sometimes pull the general consensus away from nominating that sort of film for the BP race — the non-drama. Which is a shame, but really kind of calls to mind Sasha’s question of what makes a film a BP candidate. Do those quieter moments hold up in all that BP epic-ness?

    However, I will say that if anyone really watched that film and thought to nominate it, I don’t see how anyone would want to ’spread the wealth’ and not shine some of that light on Rosemarie DeWitt. She has that thankless role (which mirrors her character) of really being the backbone of that film vying for attention. While I loved Debra Winger in that film (great welcome back), I think Ms. DeWitt’s name should be over there on the contender tracker as well. Possible BP film + Role that is really a lead + Emotional Arc + Titular Character + Ingenue + Great Acting = Best Supp. Actress Nom. It happens all the time…

16. ryan October 17th, 2008 at 6:06 pm 16

    I know a lot of people don’t like Tom Cruise anymore… and Superman Returns was disappointing… but why isn’t Valkyrie on the list?

    I’m not saying that it’ll definitely make it into the top 5, but I think if Sam Mendes has earned the benefit of doubt, then I think Bryan Singer has as well.

17. Alfredo October 17th, 2008 at 6:33 pm 17

    ryan…why exactly should we give Bryan Singer the benefit of the doubt??

18. John October 17th, 2008 at 6:55 pm 18

    Yeah, some of you are making a good point. Did everyone REALLY think ‘The Road’ and ‘The Soloist’ had a shot at multiple noms?

    Is this year in such dire straits that everyone’s so saddened by 2 or 3 delayed releases????

    I’ve always thought ‘The Road’ would be way toooo dark/bleak for Best Pic nom. Maybe snatch 3 or 4 noms elsewhere, though. It’s release it yet to be determined. And there are some positive reviews starting to surface.

    The ‘Soloist’? Nah.

    ‘The Reader’? There’s still a possibility of it being released, and movie magic happening.

    So we’re left with everything else (that’s always been there in the first place).

    I mean ……. Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, Dark Knight, Wall-E, Slumdog, Wrestler, Rachel Getting Married, Happy Go-Lucky, Milk, Australia, Defiance, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, W, Valkyrie, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Frozen River, I’ve Loved You for So Long, Boy in the Striped Pajamas, Nothing but the Truth, Synecdoche NY, Che, Changeling, Gran Torino, Iron Man, Foreign Film submissions … Gosh, the list goes on & on & on & on.

    All of these are still in contention (plus many more) and I think we’ll be albe to get a VERY solid 5 Best Pics from that large bunch.

19. ryan October 17th, 2008 at 7:03 pm 19

    The man directed The Usual Suspects, which is one of the top modern crime dramas. X-Men (for all its flaws) brought life back into the comic book move genre after Batman & Robin tried so hard to kill it. And X-Men 2 was solid as well. Not awards movies, sure. But the man is a solid filmmaker.

    Valkyrie looks like it has the potential to be a great historical thriller. Like I said, I’m not pegging it to win, but I say we shouldn’t rule it out completely to make some noise during the awards season.

    I can understand the doubt. One can argue that The Usual Suspects is the only good thing he’s made.

    However, why give Revolutionary Road the free pass? Road to Perdition wasn’t what everyone hoped it’d be. Jarhead was huge letdown. So I wonder… would people be talking about Revolutionary Road as much if it weren’t for Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio working together again?

    I don’t know. I just find it interesting that Valkyrie has been written off completely, even though it has an Oscar winning screenwriter, a solid director, and an ensemble of well-respected actors.

    Anyway, I know I still avoided a lot of detail, but hopefully my point came across in all that.

20. Sasha Stone October 17th, 2008 at 7:09 pm 20

    That graphic is GENIUS.

21. Oshu Huddleston October 17th, 2008 at 7:24 pm 21

    I still have high hopes for Benjamin Button and Doubt…as well as The Wrestler. I have to know, did too much happen for Changeling too soon? Should Clint have waited until the last moment?

22. tyler October 17th, 2008 at 8:19 pm 22

    i dont think people realize how good burn after reading was, i think it’s only slightly out of the “fargo,no country” league. It was smart, different, and the only movie that i had no idea what was coming next, even from scene to scene. And the acting was incredible but no real surprise there. And I’ll say it again it will probably end up being the smartest movie put out this year and also one of the most fun in my opinion.

23. Pierre de Plume October 18th, 2008 at 12:51 am 23

    I have to agree with you, tyler. And with the wacky campaign season in full swing — not to mention the most recent revelations about telephone spying on American citizens and financial turmoil, BAR’s rather alarming shenanigans blend interestingly with the soap operas playing out in real life.

24. Daniel October 18th, 2008 at 1:03 am 24

    Definitely agree with Tyler and Pierre on BAR. Hopefully a screenplay nods and some acting ones, too.
    I’m still trying to figure out why suddenly no one cares about Changeling. whatever happened to all the buzz? I still think it looks like it’ll be an amazing movie, though obviously there’s a chance that it will let us down.
    I’m also still keeping up my hopes for Doubt (which WILL have at least 2 acting nominations) and Synecdoche, New York. Hopefully they both surprise all the naysayers.

25. tmoves October 18th, 2008 at 1:25 am 25

    John, I agree with you. I am still looking forward to a good number of the releases left for the season. But what I was very excited about is getting less so as some of the films I was looking forward to all year are dropping off the consideration list. I was definitely looking forward to THE ROAD. Would it have cinched a BP nom? Not sure. You are right, it is a bleak subject. But we are in bleak times. And a lot of the discussion we had last year about the darker-themed films still holds true (if not even more) this year. The idea that a BP nom and win reflects the times we are living in has been floating around here of late after Sasha posed the question, ‘How do you define a BP?’ I have no idea what Hillcoat has up his sleeve, but the McCarthy novel has a resonance of desperation, survival and then hope that could play well for the cinemagoers this season that could be lost on them, say, next year when I hope everything turns around for the better. I suppose I’ll take the ‘better times’ instead of the November release of THE ROAD. Guess that just means MILK’s post election day release will have to take up the resonance reigns. And, yes, I’m looking forward to seeing it.

26. Guy Lodge October 18th, 2008 at 1:39 am 26

    Interesting that you don’t have so much as a questionmark next to Changeling. I’d this second, indifferent-to-negative wave of reviews has put it on shakier ground, hasn’t it?

27. S.T. Stevens October 18th, 2008 at 10:22 am 27

    “Yeah, some of you are making a good point. Did everyone REALLY think ‘The Road’ and ‘The Soloist’ had a shot at multiple noms?”

    In a word, yes. Have we forgotten so quickly that No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood were both nominated last year? I would say TWBB is just as dark as The Road, at least thematically. I think it had a decent shot at picture and screenplay, and really good shots at director, actor and cinematography.

28. DBibby October 18th, 2008 at 12:17 pm 28

    I saw Frost/Nixon today, and while it isn’t best pic lock material by any means, it’s still a worthy contender IMO. Langella was brilliant too.

    LOVE the graphic anyway

29. kezza October 18th, 2008 at 1:15 pm 29

    Love reading all the chatter – the best movies I have seen so far this year are The Duchess and Body of Lies (I don’t understand why the negativity) I loved both of them. Of course TDK too.

    I have high hopes for RR I can hardly wait to see it and yes I do agree it is Kate and Leo that most people are looking forward to seeing and hope they live up to the expectations. IMHO they will be great.

    I am Australian so guess what pic I want to do well??? Yep Australia. We are still in mourning about Heath Ledger’s death so I would love him to get that oscar. Has he any real challengers or is he a lock?

    Off to see Burn After Reading and I just know that it will be good.

30. Daniel October 18th, 2008 at 2:42 pm 30

    I, too, definitely thought that The Road and The Soloist had some really good things going for them. At least in the acting categories, if nothing else. I really wanted this to be the year of RDJ and Viggo.

    Although it would be awesome if Viggo snagged another nom this year, then AGAIN next year for The Road (however unlikely that may be…).

31. Alison Flynn October 18th, 2008 at 7:38 pm 31

    I agree, Daniel. From the trailer The Soloist looked like saccharin Oscar bait, but I had high hopes that this would be the year that RDJ got a second nomination – 3 performances to choose from, but The Soloist would have been the most likely. Now it’s been shoved into the March line-up which basically amounts to Oscar death. I’m very bummed, as I think his other two roles are more of a stretch for nominations.

    Blah.

32. Oshu Huddleston October 18th, 2008 at 9:20 pm 32

    Well, to further who else said it, BURN AFTER READING is SO underrated at this point. It isn’t being given the attention it deserves…I have seen BAR and The Dark Knight, and after seeing the “front runner” as of thus far, I think the Coens need some reconsideration…..

33. ladylurks October 19th, 2008 at 1:22 am 33

    I would scratch off Changeling, Appaloosa and Synecdoche. None of them have critical scores likely to take them anywhere near BP, unless it’s a really odd year. Changeling is 53% RT, and Synecdoche got a 61 from BFCA, usually the kiss of death.

    Great graphic, Ryan!

34. Daniel October 19th, 2008 at 2:32 am 34

    ” have seen BAR and The Dark Knight, and after seeing the “front runner” as of thus far, I think the Coens need some reconsideration…..”

    I definitely cannot agree that BAR was a better movie than TDK, which is hands down the best of the year so far. However, BAR would be in my top 4 or 5 of what I’ve seen and will most likely stay in my top 10 as the year progresses.

35. Jasmine October 20th, 2008 at 11:37 am 35

    You can’t go by the tomatometer for Changeling at this early stage,
    wait at least a week until after its wide release debut to point out the tomatometer rating because it should change. That should be applied to other films as well. It was a good film that I admired very much and I hope the outrageous bandwagon against it fuelled by unfounded personal hatred doesn’t ruin any chances of success, acclaim, and recognition. There are a bunch of influential jerks who made that decision early on not to like this film because they do not want to see her nominated and they are doing a good job of planting a bad taste in people’s mouths before it is released.
    The criticism I have read is probably the most crazy and inaccurate criticism I have ever read against a film. I feel it does deserve a BP, BD, and BA nomination. It should at least get a Best Original Screenplay nom. I know there are top critics who were impressed with the film at Cannes and at the NYFF who have not submitted their good reviews to the tomatometer yet. The positive reviews should be flowing in gradually after its wide release debut. I also
    agree with Ryan, that Valkyrie should not be written off and overlooked. There is major awards potential there that people can’t reasonably ignore with such a cast and script. I also loved Slumdog Millionaire and I think Milk has solid chances.

36. Zed & No Noughts October 20th, 2008 at 6:29 pm 36

    RT can’t be taken seriously because it collects reviews from the blogosphere by individuals with no credibility whatsoever. If you must pick one of these aggregate sites at least use one that collects the reviews of serious critics with at least a degree of credibility about them. Metacritic is much better than RT in this respect.

    And the comment about Changeling’s RT score is quite ridiculous. The film hasn’t even opened yet! Virtually all the print critics have yet to weigh in. As Jasmine says, you really need to wait at least a week after opening & when you do – look at the Metacritic score, not the amateur, blog contaminated RT website.

37. Chris Price October 20th, 2008 at 9:14 pm 37

    Seriously, I think everyone needs to take a step back and reconsider the film “Road To Perdition”. A couple weeks ago on this site we had a discussion involving “The Insider” and how its way better than it got credit for. Well, this is another movie that REALLY doesn’t get its due. Not only is it one of the 5 best-looking movies of the last 15 years (the late Conrad Hall’s swan song), its also a phenomenal ensemble acting piece. Tom Hanks gives one of his best performances, all subtle menace and i-love-you-my-way paternal disconnect. The boy who plays his son, Tyler Hoechlin, gives one of the best performances of any child actor in recent memory. And although his role is all too brief, the late great Paul Newman sizzles and cuts to the bone in his role. We haven’t even mentioned how creepy good Jude Law is, and the 180 Daniel Craig does from tough guy James Bond types to cockroach in hiding in this one. I saw it again recently (shortly after Newman’s passing) and was knocked out flat. I suggest you revisit it as well.

38. Chris Price October 20th, 2008 at 9:16 pm 38

    I bring this up because someone on this thread said that it wasn’t “what we hoped it would be” and I thought to myself, “This person must not have seen this movie in years.”

39. Paul Robertson October 21st, 2008 at 10:17 pm 39

    I just saw Rachel Getting Married, and I must say that Dewitt also deserves an Oscar nomination. Hathaway was great, as was Winger, but Dewitt had the most complex role and consequently the most difficult performance to pull off.

    She was fantastic and equally deserves a spot amongst all the other Best Actress nomination contenders. Maybe supporting, depending how the studio advertises her…

    Still, a revelation, to say the least.