Although Eric Childress is mentioned below as the first major Oscarwonk of the season to come forward with his nomination predictions, Frank J. Avella at New York Cool beats The Oscar Eye out of the gate by 3 full days. Not suffering from Oscar Compulsive Hype Disorder like many of us with a more narrow focus, Frank can work the Precursor Puzzle as well as the next guy, but his article is most interesting to me when he opens up about own personal favorites of the year. That’s why I’m introducing this linkage with Mr. Avella’s own Top 10 before moving on to his predictions.
1. Milk
“From its smartly structured and perfectly calibrated screenplay (by youngin Dustin Lance Black) to its extraordinary ensemble, Milk is what happens when everything goes right.”
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Revolutionary Road
“…a searing and honest portrayal of two people who truly love one another but cannot coexist with one another because they want different things from life… a tough sit, but most films that matter are.”
4. Slumdog Millionaire
5. The Dark Knight
“…exploring distressing themes about the nature of man, TDK is clever, intelligent and deeply dark without ever being dull or didactic. And Ledger is hilarious is as he is terrifying.”
6. Hunger
7. Waltz with Bashir
8. Vicky Cristina Barcelona
“…filled with wonderful acting, especially Penelope Cruz, who gives her best performance to date. She’s part Anna Magnani, part Sofia Loren, part Carmen Maura‚Ķall dangerous and sexy as hell!”
9. Frost/Nixon
10. The Reader
“…asks important questions and makes an interesting, if controversial, case for compassion thanks to an incredibly complex performance by Winslet.”
Those summary excerpts are abbreviated from their original form so it’s well worth a click to read the full analysis at New York Cool. Frank proceeds to name his own personal favorites in each of the major categories — with Leonardo DiCaprio and Cate Blanchette appearing as runners-up in the most conspicuous departures from his official nomination predictions.
But enough with the actual finest films of the year! Time to cast out those masterworks that some of us love most and move on to the game of guessing which brilliant movies the Oscars will choose to ignore this year, *sigh* (cynicism entirely my own, and no reflection on Frank’s much friendlier attitude, on display after the cut.)
Best Picture:
- Slumdog Millionaire
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Milk
- The Dark Knight
- Frost/Nixon
Best Director:
- Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
- David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Gus Van Sant for Milk
- Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight
- Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon
Best Actor:
- Sean Penn in Milk
- Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler
- Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon
- Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino
- Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Actress:
- Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road
- Meryl Streep in Doubt
- Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
- Kristin Scott Thomas in I’ve Loved You So Long
- Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky
Frank offers his rationale for each category like this bit about Best Actor:
I can’t imagine Clint not getting in here since the Academy rule is to never rule out Clint! And how many times can AMPAS turn their backs on Pitt? The sad part here is that two other amazing performances will be overlooked: Michael Fassbender in Hunger and Benicio Del Toro in Che.
Again, for me, the explanations are far more interesting than the way these nominations are seemly pre-ordained to play out. Before I get too discouraged, let’s end with Frank J. Avella’s 15 runners-up that didn’t make his Top 10 — including the titles we keep seeing alongside phrases like “too bad…” and “unfortunately…”
Dear Zachary
The Wrestler
The Visitor
Frozen River
Elegy
W.
In Bruge
Gomorrah
Love Songs
Antarctica
Che Part One
Rachel Getting Married
Stop-Loss
Shine a Light
I’ve Loved You So Long
I swear, the absence of some of those movies leaving empty holes among the nominations we’ll see on Thursday is as depressing to me as The Obituary Montage.
(At least at the end of the tribute to great talent we’ve lost, nobody rushes up to remind us: “But hey, look, we still have Cameron Diaz and Aston Kutcher to celebrate!)
