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Early indicators, off the charts

Ryan Adams by Ryan Adams
June 27, 2009
in AWARDS CHATTER
0

chart2009

Make of it what you will,, but Public Enemies has just become the 5th movie* of 2009 to enter the IMDb Top 250. I don’t pretend that this isn’t a questionable distinction, but it’s far from meaningless. If you’ll remember when I was harping on this last season, these 9 films were weaving their way through the charts.

chart2008

Add The Reader, or another dark horse of your choice, and wouldn’t this have been a reasonable and respectable list of the 10 Best Pictures of 2008?

Bear in mind that the chart won’t solidify into a reliable indicator until late December. (I’d be the last person to suggest The Hangover has a shot at a Best Picture nomination, though others have already posed the possibility). And the chart quickly disintegrates after the first of the year — when more people catch up to seeing the nominees, the backlash often begins. (see, Slamdogs Gaybash Milk)

Plenty of time over the next 6 months for any of these titles to rise or fall off the chart altogether, but until we have some actual “legitimate” precursors and year-end critics lists to help figure our Oscar formulas, I’ll continue to pimp the IMDb chart as a pretty good barometer for guesstimating the 10 Best Picture nominees. Just another factor to consider and worth keeping an eye on.

*(Coraline hovered around near 200 between February and April, rising as high as 173 before dropping off. Look for it to return when the 3-D DVD and Blu-ray are released next month?)

Tags: 82nd Oscar CeremonyEarly Oscar PredictionsIMDb
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Oscar Nomination Predictions

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Best Picture
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    100%
  • 2.
    Sinners (Warner Bros.)
    66.7%
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    66.7%
  • 4.
    Marty Supreme (A24)
    66.7%
  • 5.
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    66.7%
  • 6.
    Frankenstein (Netflix)
    66.7%
  • 7.
    Bugonia (Focus Features)
    66.7%
  • 8.
    The Secret Agent (Neon)
    66.7%
  • 9.
    Train Dreams (Netflix)
    66.7%
  • 10.
    F1 (Apple)
    66.7%
Best Director
  • 1.
    One Battle after Another, Paul Thomas Anderson
    100%
  • 2.
    Sinners, Ryan Coogler
    66.7%
  • 3.
    Marty Supreme, Josh Safdie
    66.7%
  • 4.
    Hamnet, Chloé Zhao
    66.7%
  • 5.
    Sentimental Value, Joachim Trier
    66.7%
Best Actor
  • 1.
    Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme
    100%
  • 2.
    Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle after Another
    66.7%
  • 3.
    Michael B. Jordan in Sinners
    66.7%
  • 4.
    Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon
    66.7%
  • 5.
    Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent
    66.7%
Best Actress
  • 1.
    Jessie Buckley in Hamnet
    100%
  • 2.
    Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
    66.7%
  • 3.
    Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue
    66.7%
  • 4.
    Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value
    66.7%
  • 5.
    Emma Stone in Bugonia
    66.7%
Best Supporting Actor
  • 1.
    Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value
    100%
  • 2.
    Benicio Del Toro in One Battle after Another
    66.7%
  • 3.
    Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein
    66.7%
  • 4.
    Delroy Lindo in Sinners
    66.7%
  • 5.
    Sean Penn in One Battle after Another
    66.7%
Best Supporting Actress
  • 1.
    Teyana Taylor in One Battle after Another
    100%
  • 2.
    Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners
    66.7%
  • 3.
    Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value
    66.7%
  • 4.
    Amy Madigan in Weapons
    66.7%
  • 5.
    Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value
    66.7%
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