While cracking the acting categories is tough, there is some wiggle room in the screenplay category. The publicity team behind Bridesmaids helped secure that nomination for Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, even if seeing any female writers in the Oscar conversation is still far too rare. All you have to do is remember back a year when Gillian Flynn was honored with more precursor nominations than any writer in history, and to then NOT get an Oscar nomination. BAFTA, WGA, even the Globes. But the Academy? Whiplash was supposed to have gone in the original screenplay category. The Academy changed the rule and it had to then vie for adapted. There was no way they were going to bump THAT movie so of course Gone Girl got the ax. How do we know this? We follow patterns that are rarely broken, especially when it comes to nominations. Sure, it happens sometimes but has never happened in the adapted screenplay category, to get that many nominations and miss out on an Oscar nod.
But Amy Schumer has an advantage heading into this race — she doesn’t make men feel like their balls are curling back up. She actually makes them feel kind of good. More than that, though, her script is FUNNY. It’s well written. Add to that her success with the viral videos of late puts her in strong contention for a nomination at least.
Comedy, though, is traditionally left out of the Oscars — they can barely handle satire, especially black satire. We will be beating the Amy Schumer drum throughout the year and given the lack of women writers in the race overall, she should fare well.
Abi Morgan will be on the contenders for Suffragette. Early favorite in the adapted category is Phyllis Nagy for Carol. Marielle Heller could get a nod for adapting Diary of a Teenage Girl. Lucinda Coxon for The Danish Girl. Angelina Jolie for By the Sea. Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Pete Docter for Inside Out. Mistress America by Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig. Ricki & The Flash by Diablo Cody.
Other than that, though? To find the early contenders you might have to look at the films that could be headed for Best Picture. Of course, we’ve a long way to go on that score but last year seven out of ten of the screenplay nominees were also Best Picture nominees and ALL those were written by men.
Strong Best Picture contenders on paper
Youth – Paolo Sorrentino*
Silence – Jay Cocks*
Steve Jobs – Aaron Sorkin*
The Revenant – Alejandro G. Inarritu, Mark L. Smith
Trumbo (November) – John McNamara
Crimson Peak -Guillermo Del Toro, Matthew Robbins
Bridge of Spies (October) Joel and Ethan Coen, Matt Charman
Joy – (December) David O. Russell*
Snowden (December) – Kieran Fitzgerald, Oliver Stone*
Black Mass – Mark Mallouk, Jez Butterworth
The Walk (October) – Robert Zemeckis, Christopher Browne
The Force Awakens (December) – JJ Abrams, Lawrence Kasdan, George Lucas*
Brooklyn – Nick Hornby*
Also to be considered:
Love & Mercy – Oren Moverman, Michael A. Lerner
Pawn Sacrifice – Steven Knight*
Legend – Brian Helgeland*
Sicario – Taylor Sheridan
Midnight Special (November) – Jeff Nichols*
Regression – Alejandro Amenábar*
The Martian (November) – Drew Goddard
In the Heart of the Sea (December) – Charles Leavitt
Concussion (December) – Peter Landesman
Spotlight – Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
Outside the Best Picture category but might be considered for screenplay:
The End of the Tour – Donald Margulies
Dope – Rick Famuyiwa
The Lady in the Van – Alan Bennett
*potentially nominated on name recognition alone.
