People are taking sides. ¬†Fans, voters, bloggers. ¬†What’s an Oscar watcher to do?
The way this year is going to go seems all but a certainty: a King’s Speech near-sweep. It’s time to take a look at what rivals may yet challenge The King’s Speech in the various categories, and what some of the most emotionally divisive races are. First, we have to wonder why we take sides on films at all. ¬†The answer: because we do. ¬†What we like defines who we are. ¬†We want what we like to win because maybe that validates it somehow.
Having said that, what are the more contentious races this year?
1. The Social Network vs. The King’s Speech
For the first time in a very long time the Best Picture race is sharply divided between critics and the industry. ¬†One film won virtually every critic award in its path. It was stopped abruptly when, over the course of a weekend, another film took the lead by winning the much larger majority vote. ¬†The fans of each film seem to divide sharply too. ¬†There isn’t much of a fight to be had in the last act. ¬†The guilds trump the critics as history proves. ¬†The King’s Speech will be named Best Picture of 2010. ¬†Only a freak miracle could alter this outcome. If any film could upset those two in a vote split it would be True Grit. I suspect that there is some significant vote splitting going on with the largest group, obviously, supporting The King’s Speech. Anyone who isn’t supporting that film is going to split off their support for The Fighter, Black Swan, Inception and The Social Network.
2. David Fincher vs. Tom Hooper – the likability test played out. ¬†Fincher is the most lauded director to not win the DGA with critical acclaim and so many award wins behind him. ¬†”People just don’t like him,” is the phrase I hear the most. ¬†To which I add, good thing the awards committees in the industry have their priorities in order. ¬†Just imagine how well Fincher would have done with the DGA if he’d been as likable as, say, Danny Boyle. ¬†Then again, people will say, Hooper made the movie they liked best and that is why he won.
3. Toy Story 3 vs. How to Train Your Dragon РToy Story has the advantage of being in more than one category, including Best Picture of the year.  Both films made a boatload of cash but Toy Story 3 has the reviews, the box office and the success of the first two Toy Story movies.  Only problem: some people think Dragon is the better movie on its own.  It cleaned up at the Annies but that news has an asterisk, tempered by the claim that they were unfair because of voting practices and this and that.  Note how no one has ever really protested the Globes for the very same reason.  Either way, Toy Story 3 probably has it in the bag.
4. Natalie Portman vs. Annette Bening
Again, you have likable vs. unlikable — both actresses are incredibly likable but Bening’s character gets the edge for being admirable and strong, a positive role model, while Portman’s Nina is coming apart. Conversely, Portman gets the edge for carrying a film that is about to break $100 mil. ¬†The movie is all her. ¬†Bening is overdue and is also brilliant in the role. Portman will likely eke out the win.
5. Hailee Steinfeld vs. Melissa Leo – again, the reasons being bantered about in support of Steinfeld and against Leo have nothing to do with the performances themselves. Steinfeld has the advantage of being a lead role stuffed into a supporting category. She’s also – say it with me now – the more likable character. Melissa Leo was winning the critics awards, and she could still win the Oscar. Steinfeld could be True Grit’s one big win (along with sound possibly).
6. Inception vs. The King’s Speech for original screenplay – this is time to a stick-a-fork-in-it, probably, as there is no way in hell they won’t reward Seidler, who waited 25 years for the Queen mum to die before bringing the script to life. This is one of the Oscars that is won walking through the door. The “Oscar story” dictates that Seidler wins this. I personally believe Nolan’s was the more vivid, memorable, imaginative and daring bit of writing. Alas, it’s about how much they like you and your movie.
7. True Grit vs.The King’s Speech for cinematography – here is one that the King’s Speech could lose, given the love for Roger Deakins’ work in general and the ten nominations for True Grit. I think Deakins finally wins, but if The King’s Speech wins here we know a sweep is afoot.
8. Geoffrey Rush vs. Christian Bale – again, it comes down to likability of actor and character. Rush has it in spades on both sides. His only possible snag is that he’s already won and Christian Bale hasn’t. Rush is great in the part — and it’s hard to imagine them giving The King’s Speech’s Oscars to Firth, Hooper and not Rush. Still, Bale gave arguably one of the best performances of the year, period. And it would be a joke if they snubbed him here. But, as we know from their history, whether they like you or not matters more perhaps. We shall see. It’s a toss-up right now.
9. Social Network editing vs. the King’s Speech’s editing. – again, there are films that had great editing this year, Inception (which was not nominated) among them. The Social Network’s editing is more prominent though seamless. The King’s Speech could win it if the film sweeps. It’s really hard to imagine them giving it to this film for editing but one never knows these things for sure. Slumdog only lost one of the 10 Oscars for which it was nominated for. (Sound Editing)
10. Inception art direction vs. King’s Speech – Art Direction and Costume seem like they could go to The King’s Speech of course. But Inception’s art direction is nothing short of staggering. What a shame if it loses this category, which it would do in a sweep scenario. The King’s Speech is a period film and they tend to do well in the techs also.
