If there was one thing that became certain last night, it’s that Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, Mo’Nique in Precious and Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds are certain to prevail at next weekend’s SAG awards, and onward to the Oscars. We are still snagged in the Streep versus Bullock race. It feels like a toss-up at the moment. But is that just our outsider’s perception? Or is there something to this.
Last year, Meryl Streep won the SAG for Doubt. That means that if she wins the SAG again this upcoming weekend that she will have won two years in a row. That will be the first time ever for such a thing to occur in the lead actress category. More likely, Bullock with win the SAG and the Oscars will have to decide. In looking back over the charts, when actresses split between the two categories at the Globes, then one went on to win the SAG, it sort of divides between drama and musical/comedy. There is also precedent for an actress who didn’t win either category at the Globes winning the SAG, then winning the Oscar (Susan Sarandon, Frances McDormand). Basically, all of this to say that even if Sandra Bullock wins the SAG, it doesn’t guarantee she will win the Oscar.
One trend does seem to hold, though. A lead actress has never won the Oscar without having won the SAG or the Globe.
At this point, both actresses were wonderful at the Golden Globes. They did not falter. Therefore, it will be a tight race most likely between the two. Since Streep has already won two, that would seem to give Bullock the edge. But Streep clearly gave the more adept performance. Still, how many times have we seen that scenario play out?
And the charts:
2008
| Mickey Rourke/Colin Farrell | Sean Penn | Sean Penn |
| Kate Winslet/Sally Hawkins | Meryl Streep | Kate Winslet |
| Kate Winslet | Kate Winslet | Penelope Cruz |
| Heath Ledger | Heath Ledger | Heath Ledger |
2007
| Daniel Day Lewis | Daniel Day Lewis | Daniel Day Lewis |
| Julie Christie/Marion Cotillard | Julie Christie | Marion Cotillard |
| Javier Bardem | Javier Bardem | Javier Bardem |
| Cate Blanchett | Ruby Dee | Tilda Swinton |
2006
| Forest Whitaker | Forest Whitaker | Forest Whitaker |
| Helen Mirren | Helen Mirren | Helen Mirren |
| Jennifer Hudson | Jennifer Hudson | Jennifer Hudson |
| Eddie Murphy | Eddie Murphy | Alan Arkin |
| Babel/Dreamgirls | Little Miss Sunshine | The Departed |
2005
| Philip Seymour Hoffman/Joaquin Phoenix | Philip Seymour Hoffman | Philip Seymour Hoffman/Joaquin Phoenix |
| Reese Witherspoon/Felicity Huffman | Reese Witherspoon | Reese Witherspoon/Felicity Huffman |
| Rachel Weisz | Rachel Weisz | Rachel Weisz |
| George Clooney | Paul Giamatti | George Clooney |
| Brokeback/Walk the Line | Crash | Crash |
2004
| Leonardo DiCap/Jamie Foxx | Jamie Foxx | Jamie Fox |
| Hilary Swank | Hilary Swank | Hilary Swank |
| Natalie Portman | Cate Blanchett | Cate Blanchett |
| Clive Owen | Morgan Freeman | Morgan Freeman |
| Aviator/Sideways | Sideways | MDB |
2003
| Sean Penn | Johnny Depp | Sean Penn |
| Charlize Theron | Charlize Theron | Charlize Theron |
| Renee Zellweger | Renee Zellweger | Renee Zellweger |
| Tim Robbins | Tim Robbins | Tim Robbins |
| ROTK | ROTK | ROTK |
2002
| Jack Nicholson | Daniel Day Lewis | Adrien Brody |
| Nicole Kidman/Zellweger | Renee Zellweger | Nicole Kidman |
| Meryl Streep | Catherine Zeta-Jones | Catherine Zeta-Jones |
| Chris Cooper | Chris Walken | Chris Cooper |
| The Hours/Chicago | Chicago | Chicago |
2001
| Russell Crowe | Russell Crowe | Denzel Washington |
| Sissy Spacek | Halle Berry | Halle Berry |
| Jennifer Connelly | Helen Mirren | Jennifer Connelly |
| Jim Broadbent | Ian McKellen | Jim Broadbent |
| A Beautiful Mind (Moulin Rouge) | Gosford Park (ensemble) | A Beautiful Mind |
2000
| Tom Hanks | Benicio Del Toro | Russell Crowe |
| Julia Roberts | Julia Roberts | Julia Roberts |
| Kate Hudson | Judi Dench | Marcia Gay Harden |
| Benicio Del Toro | Albert Finney | Benicio Del Toro |
| Gladiator (Almost Famous) | Traffic | Gladiator |
1999
| Denzel Washington | Kevin Spacey | Kevin Spacey |
| Hilary Swank | Annette Bening | Hilary Swank |
| Angelina Jolie | Angelina Jolie | Angelina Jolie |
| Tom Cruise | Michael Caine | Michael Caine |
| American Beauty | American Beauty | American Beauty |
1998
| Jim Carrey (Michael Caine) | Roberto Benigni | Roberto Benigni |
| Gwyneth Paltrow (Cate Blanchett) | Gwyneth Paltrow | Gwyneth Paltrow |
| Lynn Redgrave | Kathy Bates | Judi Dench |
| Ed Harris | Robert Duvall | James Coburn |
| Shakespeare in Love | Shakespeare in Love | Shakespeare in Love |
1997
| Jack Nicholson (Peter Fonda) | Jack Nicholson | Jack Nicholson |
| Helen Hunt (Judi Dench) | Helen Hunt | Helen Hunt |
| Kim Basinger | Kim Basinger (and Gloria Stewart) | Kim Basinger |
| Burt Reynolds | Robin Williams | Robin Williams |
| Titanic | The Full Monty | Titanic |
1996
| Geoffrey Rush (Tom Cruise) | Geoffrey Rush | Geoffrey Rush |
| Brenda Blethyn (Madonna) | Frances McDormand | Frances McDormand |
| Lauren Bacall | Lauren Bacall | Juliette Binoche |
| Ed Norton | Cuba Gooding, Jr. | Cuba Gooding, Jr. |
| The English Patient (Evita) | The Birdcage | The English Patient |
1995
| Nicolas Cage (John Travolta) | Nicolas Cage | Nicolas Cage |
| Sharon Stone (Nicole Kidman) | Susan Sarandon | Susan Sarandon |
| Mira Sorvino | Kate Winslet | Mira Sorvino |
| Brad Pitt | Ed Harris | Kevin Spacey |
| Sense & Sensibility (Babe) | Apollo 13 | Braveheart |
1994
| Tom Hanks (Hugh Grant) | Tom Hanks | Tom Hanks |
| Jessica Lange (Jamie Lee Curtis) | Jodie Foster | Jessica Lange |
| Dianne Wiest | Diane Wiest | Dianne Wiest |
| Martin Landau | Ed Harris | Martin Landau |
| Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump |
