Predictions Friday – Knowing Your Blind Spots

We’ve focused a lot on Gold Derby in the past few days, now it’s time to also look at the only other Oscar pundit aggregate site, Movie City News’ Gurus of Gold. There are pundits on both sites, of course, but the difference between them is that Gold Derby has kind of a revolving predictions model, where the Gurus is mostly fixed. The latter takes a snapshot in time to see where people were at a given stage in the race. While Gold Derby does that too and even has a nifty time machine feature that travels back week by week, members are encouraged to update their predictions often, creating a dynamic fluidity rather than a static snapshot of a point in time.

David Poland has posted the first Gurus of Gold of the season. I thought it might be fun to look at where we were this time last year. We were counting on the late comers we had not yet seen, but no one had The Big Short on their radar yet. It really was that film that came out of nowhere. Is it possible there is one of those lurking about that no one has yet seen? Sure. But I had six out of the eventual eight, and seven if you count my number 10 for Mad Max. Carol and Steve Jobs were the ones that threw most of us. Greg Ellwood, it’s worth noting, had all five of the Best Actress nominees correct.

First, the most recent Gurus for Best Picture (the other categories are here):

And now, last year’s.

I will post the updated Gurus later when they’re on Movie City News, but it’s always important to remember how things can shift dramatically either because Academy voters just won’t go there (Carol) or because a film does poorly at the box office, which casts it in a negative light (Steve Jobs).

This year, I have suspicions of films that may or may not go to the Best Picture dance, but I really can’t be sure if my instincts are correct. I really did think Carol and Steve Jobs would get Best Picture nominations in early November of last year. They felt secure. I was less sure about Room and Brooklyn, which ended up doing quite well with the Academy. We all have our blind spots, which is usually partly personal preferences, and partly not having enough information at hand. We think we know what they’re going to do and what they aren’t going to do, but in some cases, we’re surprised.

So, you dear readers probably know full well what my blind spots are. You point them out every year. And some of the time you’re right, and some of the time you’re not right. This year you would all probably say I have a blind spot in favor of Emma Stone and against Natalie Portman, or a blind spot in favor of Amy Adams/Jessica Chastain and against Isabelle Huppert. A blind spot in favor of Arrival and against something else. Either way, it’s hard to change one’s way of thinking because you really never can tell if you’re going to be right or wrong.

Onward with predictions. I don’t feel like all that much has changed. I still feel like La La Land is champagne and everything else is wine in terms of what will win Oscar votes.

Right now, this is what Gold Derby’s odds tell us about Best Picture:

Probably six of these will end up getting nominated. Generally speaking, of the films we haven’t seen, only two will make it through, at the most three. All of that should be known by the time AFI Fest concludes in mid-November and we head into the critics awards.

Best Picture
Frontrunners
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. Jackie
6. Silence
7. Loving
8. Fences
9. Sully
10. Lion

Strong Contenders
11. 20th Century Women
12. Hacksaw Ridge
13. Hell or High Water
14. Florence Foster Jenkins
15. Miss Sloane

Best Actor
1. Denzel Washington, Fences
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
4. Tom Hanks, Sully
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving

Strong Contenders
6. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
7. Robert DeNiro, The Comedian
8. Chris Pine, Hell or High Water
9. Miles Teller, Bleed for This
10. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
11. Andrew Garfield, Silence
12. Ben Affleck, Live by Night
13. Matthew McConaughey, Gold

Best Actress
1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
4. Amy Adams, Arrival
5. Ruth Negga, Loving

Strong Contenders
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship

Supporting Actor
1. Dev Patel, Lion
2. Liam Neeson, Silence
3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Strong Contenders
6. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
7. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Supporting Actress
1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion
4. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
5. Molly Shannon, Other People

Strong Contenders
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
8. Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane

Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
5. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Strong Contenders:
6. Denzel Washington, Fences
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving
8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
9. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
10. Clint Eastwood, Sully
11. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

Original Screenplay
1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Jeff Nichols, Loving
4. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
5. Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Adapted Screenplay
1. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
2. Patrick Ness, A Monster Calls
3. Jay Cocks, Silence
4. August Wilson, Fences
5. Todd Komarnicki, Sully

Editing
La La Land
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Moonlight
Silence

Cinematography
La La Land
Arrival
Jackie
Hail Caesar
Silence

Production Design
La La Land
Jackie
Arrival
Rules Don’t Apply
Hail Caesar

Costume Design
Jackie
La La Land
Rules Don’t Apply
Florence Foster Jenkins
Love & Friendship

Documentary Feature
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Gleason
Life Animated
The Ivory Game

Animated Feature
The Red Turtle
Moana
Sing
Finding Dory
Zootopia

Visual Effects
Arrival
Midnight Special
Hail Caesar
Captain America: Civil War
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Makeup AND HAIR
La La Land
Jackie
Rules Don’t Apply
Hail Caesar
Indignation