Two mild shakeups have occurred in the race for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress from two films. First, Rooney Mara will be campaigning for lead for Women Talking, alongside Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy in supporting. Second, She Said, which is competing against Women Talking in all categories now, has Zoe Kazan in lead and Carey Mulligan in supporting.
I thought it might be fun to look up the history of similar situations, should all of them earn nominations. Here is what I found:
Since 1936:
Best Actress and Best Supporting have both won for the same film nine times.
When both were nominated, Best Actress alone won 20 times.
When both were nominated, Best Supporting Actress alone won 11 times.
It’s extremely rare for a Best Actress winner to come from a Best Picture winner:
1936 — Luise Rainer, The Great Ziegfeld
1939 — Vivien Leigh, Gone With the Wind
1942 — Greer Garson, Mrs. Miniver
1975 — Louise Fletcher, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
1977 — Diane Keaton, Annie Hall
1983 — Shirley MacLaine, Terms of Endearment
1989 — Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy
1991 — Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs
1998 — Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
2004 — Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
2020 — Frances McDormand, Nomadland
It is strange that only McDormand has won Best Actress along with Best Picture in the modern era of the preferential ballot. But that’s probably because with more movies on tap, voters prefer to spread the wealth in the big awards, which is why in the era of so many writer/director-driven movies, it’s so rare to win both Screenplay and Director, along with Picture.
Emma Stone might have been the one exception had La La Land won Best Picture, which it famously did not. Also note the gap between 1942 and 1975: that was when the Academy decided not to have an expanded ballot and shifted the Best Picture lineup to only five nominees. That seemed to, for whatever reason, change things.
Two Best Supporting Actresses from the same movie much more commonly get nominated, which has happened 35 times in Oscar history. Of those times, one of the 12/35 double nominees won. Of those, 4/12 paired with Best Picture winner:
1939 — Hattie McDaniel, Gone With the Wind
1942 — Teresa Wright, Mrs. Miniver
1947 — Celeste Holm, Gentlemen’s Agreement
2002 — Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
She Said and Women Talking — two titles that mean the same thing, more or less. The #MeToo women are about telling stories either they were afraid to tell for fear of losing their careers, or their place in society, or in some cases, their lives. What is kind of ironic is that at the same time as this has been going down, 2018 to now, there has been a concurrent climate of fear and silence. All the ways our culture has changed just isn’t commented on by the media at all, and on Twitter everyone is afraid of a beatdown.
There seem to be two different subjects at hand that these films tackle, along with the #MeToo movement overall. One is women as victims and the other is pushing for more women behind and in front of the camera. For some reason, they are blended together as one. The general assumption, then, is that women have been victimized not just sexually but in ways that have held them back from making progress in the industry.
This narrative has played out more easily in the post-COVID Hollywood. The Oscars, and the films that are aimed at the Oscar race, have eliminated the free market. When they have tried to expand the movies outward for general consumption, they have mostly fallen flat. Ridley Scott’s epic The Last Duel was ignored, even though it centered on one of the oldest stories of “she said.”
The free market doesn’t allow for “shoulds.” Hollywood, when it’s in the business of giving people what they want, tends to do better than when they are giving people what they think they SHOULD want. They should want women to do well so they should pay to see movies directed by them and focused on the subjects that should matter to them. But the free market usually prefers stories that are fun, juicy, entertaining, scandalous, without the requisite nudge towards better behavior.
For our purposes here, we’re still very much inside a teeny tiny bubble that has become, what Laurie Anderson once quoted as what television is, “a perfect little world that doesn’t really need you.”
But there is a free market story happening in the Best Actress race and that’s with Michelle Yeoh anchoring Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s an experimental indie that meets all of the requirements of the Great Awokening (the only white character in the film, as I recall, is an antagonistic lady boss) that attracted a wider audience. It became popular through word of mouth, and you can’t get better than that when it comes to making and releasing movies.
Michelle Yeoh has the weight, at least as it looks right now, of making history as the first Chinese actress to win in lead, driving a hit that looks to be a strong Oscar contender. Those are green lights all the way down the road.
Challenging Yeoh at the moment is the Film Twitter darling, Cate Blanchett as Lydia Tar. She has somehow become a role model of sorts and beloved as a wicked, flawed, bravura character as only Blanchett can deliver. We assume TÁR will do well at the Oscars, but we can’t yet know how it will play with voters Blanchett has already won two Oscars, however, which probably drops her a peg or two in terms of urgency to win.
In general, for Best Actress we look at three key metrics:
Likability of Star
Likability of Role
Likability of Movie
Michelle Yeoh has all three of these, or that’s how it seems at the moment.
As far as Blanchett goes, she is obviously likable. Her role is complex: she doesn’t really play a good person, but rather a greatly flawed one, which is how she won her last Oscar for Blue Jasmine. Here is how the movie looks on RT:
Finally, Danielle Deadwyler in Till is probably, at least at the moment, in the running to win. We should say, as we do every year, if she does win she will be only the second Black woman in Oscar history to win. The last time that happened was over 20 years ago, Halle Berry in 2001.
Till hasn’t been widely seen yet, but so far, so good:
The Fabelmans looks to be a very strong contender heading in, and could be the Best Picture winner (still too soon to make that call). Michelle Williams is the heart of the film and plays Steven Spielberg’s mother. She’s also never won an Oscar. I figure the Best Actress winner will follow tradition and split with Best Picture (Nomadland being the one lone recent exception), but if something else is winning Best Pic, Williams could be a strong contender to take the prize.
That’s four at the moment. We need one more to fill out the fifth slot.
Ordinarily I would have Viola Davis in there, but I just don’t know about that considering the talk online about the film itself. Is is running just ahead of controversy? Does it make a difference? Either way, this is how that movie comes down on RT:
It’s obviously beloved, to a ridiculous degree. Davis has the rare distinction of being the only actress in SAG/Oscar history to win two SAG awards who then went on to lose Best Actress at the Oscars twice. So no one would be happier to see her win this than me.
These are the contenders Paul Sheehan has listed on Gold Derby right now:
Cate Blanchett, Tar
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Marcus Jones’ predictions for Indiewire are following the Anne Thompson model of not predicting what has not yet been seen. He has these as the frontrunners and contenders:
Frontrunners:
Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”)
Viola Davis (“The Woman King”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Contenders:
Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”)
Zoe Kazan (“She Said”)
Vicky Krieps (“Corsage”)
Jennifer Lawrence (“Causeway”)
Rooney Mara (“Women Talking”)
Margot Robbie (“Babylon”)
Olivia Colman is absolutely outstanding in Empire of Light. But it doesn’t seem to have Film Twitter buzz required. It was shat upon by the high status critics out of Telluride, which was more than a little annoying. But the race is already getting crowded, and with Margot Robbie barreling down the pike, that crowds it even more.
All of this to say that if they really love Women Talking, like really really love it (which they might), Rooney Mara could knock out one of the five already placed in the race. And that could be a strong indicator that the film is popular with the all-important actors branch.
As far as supporting actress goes, the general consensus has settled around Jessie Buckley for Women Talking. It appears as though she could be going to head to head with Carey Mulligan for She Said. Again, two #MeTwo movies, two supporting actresses. But beyond those two, what other names are being bandied about?
We’ll check in on Marcus Jones again to see what he has down:
Frontrunners:
Jessie Buckley (“Women Talking”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Nina Hoss (“TÁR”)
Thuso Mbedu (“The Woman King”)
Carey Mulligan (“She Said”)
Contenders:
Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
Patricia Clarkson (“She Said”)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Dolly De Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”)
Jennifer Ehle (“She Said”)
Clarie Foy (“Women Talking”)
Anne Hathaway (“Armageddon Time”)
Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Sophie Kauer (“TÁR”)
Ximena Lamadrid (“Bardo”)
Lashana Lynch (“The Woman King”)
Janelle Monáe (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)
Samantha Morton (“She Said”)
Jean Smart (“Babylon”)
Gabrielle Union (“The Inspection”)
Nina Hoss over Claire Foy? MMMMM. Not sure about that one. But okay, we’ll set it aside for the moment and look at what Paul Sheehan has:
Leading Contenders (in alphabetical order)
Jessie Buckley, “Women Talking”
Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Claire Foy, “Women Talking”
Janelle Monae, “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Jean Smart, “Babylon”
Strong Contenders (in alphabetical order)
Hong Chau, “The Whale”
Patricia Clarkson, “She Said”
Laura Dern, “The Son”
Whoopi Goldberg, “Till”
Anne Hathaway, “Armageddon Time”
Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Sadie Sink, “The Whale”
That list looks a little more like what I’m thinking for this category. For one thing, Kerry Condon is wonderful in The Banshees of Inisherin, which is easily one of the best films of the year. So I would have to keep her on my list as well. I like to think Janelle Monae has a shot from Glass Onion. We don’t yet know what Babylon will be, how good it will be or whether Jean Smart is great in it. In general, Best Supporting Actor tends to be more Best Picture friendly but Supporting Actress can be too sometimes. Stephanie Hsu might be swept in if voters really love the movie — I think she has a slightly better chance than Jamie Lee Curtis because she plays a more likable character.
Supporting Actress can also follow the three metrics we use for actress. If a character, star or movie is unlikable, that counts against it somewhat.
Here is my own list of predictions at the moment:
Best Picture
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Babylon
TÁR
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
She Said
Elvis
Glass Onion
Alts: Top Gun: Maverick, The Son, The Whale, Emancipation, Empire of Light, The Woman King
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere
Alt: Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Actor
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Will Smith, Emancipation
Bill Nighy, Living
Alt: Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Actress
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Alts: Olivia Colman, Empire of Light; Margot Robbie, Babylon
Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Alt: Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Babylon
Empire of Light
Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
She Said
Glass Onion
The Whale
The Son
That’s it for today. Have a nice weekend.
