There are, I believe, four actresses who could win Best Actress. The frontrunner, is Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon. Her challengers are Emma Stone in Poor Things, Carey Mulligan in Maestro, and now, Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple. I know what you’re thinking. The race is already too crowded for Barrino. The movie came in late, and crashing the category was not easy. But the thing is, you have to see the movie.
Barrino’s performance strengthens as the movie itself strengthens. It starts out a little clumsily, with the story feeling kind of all over the place. The singing and the dance numbers are exceptional. But Barrino ultimately blooms in this film, transforming from an abused wife to a formidable, truly empowered woman. Empowered in this case doesn’t mean what it does with Emma Stone in Poor Things, where having lots of sex ultimately gives way to knowledge, which gives way to a sense of purpose. Barrino’s Celie is dealing with much bigger problems than Emma Stone’s character could ever have possibly imagined.
Celie is a woman born into the Jim Crow South, whose babies are taken from her at birth, and who is probably a gay woman being forced to live as a wife to an abusive man. It’s all of the usual things you’d expect in a movie like this, the kind of thing American Fiction stands in opposition to (when will Black characters escape the burden of their past? and be allowed to flourish as actual human beings?) But by the end, Celie has been reborn, and the movie, I think, takes flight.
Ultimately, The Color Purple is a deeply moving experience, and that’s largely due — in addition to the directing of the dance scenes by Blitz Bazawule — to Barrino’s performance. She is particularly good at finding Celie’s courage to fight back by standing up for herself. Her solo number toward the end blows the roof off of the joint. I just don’t know how you come out of this movie not being fully won over by her.
Lily Gladstone is likely the frontrunner here and will win every award, including the Oscar. She will win not just for her performance but for the history of Hollywood’s (and America’s) treatment of Native Americans. She will win because she is beloved in the industry by her colleagues. And because Killers of the Flower Moon is a momentous production and will likely win one of the top prizes, if not the whole thing.
For Barrino, she could also be carrying both the legacy of the original film by Spielberg, which was shut out of Oscar wins. Should Whoopi Goldberg and Oprah Winfrey have won that year? Probably. Geraldine Page and Anjelica Huston won instead, which, to me, was mostly a legacy win. Additionally, and I suppose I have to be the one to say it since I’ve been saying it for 20 years, there has only been one Black actress to win in the Lead Actress category in 94 years of Oscar history. As you know, I’m trying to move away from seeing the Oscars this way because I think it’s an insult to the artists themselves to see them as placeholders for making things fair. They all deserve recognition for their performances. But, still. It’s worth saying and remembering for a community that has now adopted the “woke” religion.
I have not yet seen Maestro, to my complete and total shame. But word has it Carey Mulligan is exceptional as the long-suffering wife of Leonard Bernstein. She has never won an Oscar and is in the category of overdue. She could also be the major win for a beloved film — especially if Gladstone and Barrino split the vote between those trying to vote for reasons other than passion and love for the performance (aka virtue signaling). Then, it gets down to Stone vs. Mulligan. And that will get down to how much they love Poor Things vs. how much they love Maestro.
It’s too early to make that determination because we have to see how the SAG votes, how the BAFTA votes, etc. But for now, I’d stick with the Best Actress race down to four strong competitors. Who will fill that fifth slot?
Here are the potential names:
Annette Bening – Nyad. Bening has almost-won quite a few times, is Hollywood royalty and long overdue. Her nomination will come down to how much people like the film and the character of Diana Nyad (that’s slightly controversial).
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall – Critics might start pushing Huller if they see she might get dropped off the list. She’s magnificent in the part, of course. And love for the film could push her through.
Margot Robbie, Barbie – who wouldn’t want the belle of the ball to show up at the Oscars? Beautiful Margot Robbie has had quite a year, producing both Saltburn and the highest-grossing film of the year, Barbie. She will be there, of course, but as a nominee, all the better.
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin – I still have not seen Origin, but I hear Ellis-Taylor carries the whole thing. She could be included if the film does well.
Any other names that are dropped will have to knock out one of those above. Here are Variety’s Clayton Davis’ predictions:
- Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Origin” (Neon)
- Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Erik Anderson’s predictions:
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
- Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
- Annette Bening – NYAD (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix)
- Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
— - Margot Robbie – Barbie (Warner Bros)
- Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
- Greta Lee – Past Lives (A24)
- Natalie Portman – May December (Netflix)
- Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla (A24)
And here are two of my favorite pundits, Anne Thompson and Susan Wloszczyna:
Both seem to think Gladstone has the least chance of winning, which is kind of … interesting? We’re seeing the passionate choice from these two women, both of them veteran Oscar pundits. Since I haven’t seen Maestro, I have to lean in Wloszczyna’s direction here. Both like Mulligan, obviously. Margot Robbie has also made both lists. Bening not on Thompson’s is … interesting.
The Academy is still 70% male, and most of them heterosexual, I would imagine. SAG tends to be more mixed and diverse in all ways. But now that it’s merged with AFTRA, we have to consider many straight men are voting. That makes me think two things. Margot Robbie has a much better chance, and so does Emma Stone.
For me, I’d probably go something like this:
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
But it’s tight, my friends. It’s tight.
How do you see it rolling out?
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