2024 Oscar Predictions: The Weekend That Will Decide Everything

Tomorrow, the Screen Actors Guild will hand out awards that very likely will decide the acting races, barring some freak occurrence at the Oscars. Hey, they sometimes happen. Then Sunday night will have the Producers Guild deciding on Best Picture.

From the beginning of this race, it has felt like one of those years where the consensus falls in line. The wins aren’t all over the place and anyone could probably guess how this year is going to go. This will likely be one of those years where it comes down to the shorts. If you nail those, you win. With so many people predicting now, it’s hard to stand out as a super-champ. But there are still plenty of us around, the OGs, who get a thrill out of getting it right.

But sometimes we’re wrong, too. As we head into this weekend, Oppenheimer is kind of where La La Land was heading into the Oscars, with one major exception. Oppenheimer has a SAG ensemble nomination, and there is a possibility it will win. It isn’t a slam dunk, though — Barbie could win. American Fiction could win. Voters might want to give Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone the prize, and the only way to do that is to give Best Actress to Emma Stone and Ensemble to Killers of the Flower Moon. So that scenario could play out, too. By the same token, if they wanted to give both Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy a prize, they could give Best Actor to Giamatti and Oppenheimer the ensemble prize. In that case, everyone wins.

But as we head into the weekend, the heat on Oppenheimer is palpable. It isn’t just that the film itself is beloved, but Christopher Nolan and producer Emma Thomas are SO overdue. It’s time to collect those statues. And if it doesn’t happen, the Oscars should pack it in. They’ll never live it down.

It has been a pretty good year for movies, but there is no question the Oscars and the industry are in trouble — maybe not inside the bubble of Film Twitter, but any measure beyond that. It’s so bad that even movies that would ordinarily not be considered for awards because they bombed at the box office can’t fail because there would be no movies to nominate. Take the win, Hollywood. Thank your lucky stars for Barbenheimer, which saved Hollywood from complete ruin.

The question is will Barbie win stuff? Barbie didn’t win anything at the BAFTAs, and if it’s only Oppenheimer then the Barbenheimer phenomenon comes to a tragic end. I’m hoping for Barbie to win some awards. Both films deserve recognition. You can’t make them do the heavy lifting as they wipe their chin and walk away. Give credit where credit is due. Smack those BAFTA voters down, Academy; you can’t let Barbie walk away empty-handed.

I wasn’t going to post predictions because we’re about to get a double dose of certainty, but it may be useful for next year. We can look back and see what it was like before the last big awards decide the outcome.

I am betting on Barbenheimer to do some damage at the Oscars, even if the “ENHEIMER” will come out the winner.

Let’s go through them, shall we?

Best Motion Picture of the Year

1. Oppenheimer 
2. The Holdovers
3. American Fiction
4. Poor Things
5. Barbie
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Maestro
8. Anatomy of a Fall
9. The Zone of Interest
10. Past Lives

Best Actor

I think it could go either way. The Murphy buzz is louder at the moment but that could change on Saturday. Hard choice.

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

Best Actress

Emma Stone does have support, but so does Lily Gladstone. This is a tossup.

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things
3. Annette Bening, Nyad
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
5. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer” – LOCKED
2. Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
3. Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
4. Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” — LOCKED
2. Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
3. Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
4. America Ferrera, “Barbie”
5. Jodie Foster, “Nyad”

Achievement in Directing

1. “Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan — LOCKED
2. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet
3. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Martin Scorsese
4. “Poor Things,” Yorgos Lanthimos
5. “The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer

Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction has the momentum, though Barbie could win here too.

1. “American Fiction,” Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
2. “Barbie,” Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
3. “Oppenheimer,” Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
4. “Poor Things,” Screenplay by Tony McNamara
5. “The Zone of Interest,” Written by Jonathan Glazer

Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall has ran a clean sweep of the season and will likely prevail on Oscar night.

1. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Screenplay — Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
2. “The Holdovers,” Written by David Hemingson
3. “Maestro,” Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
4. “May December,” Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
5. “Past Lives,” Written by Celine Song

Achievement in Production Design

This is a hard one, but I figure it’s the one award Poor Things can’t lose.

1. “Poor Things”
2. “Barbie” 
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. “Napoleon”

Achievement in Sound

Oppenheimer could win this in a sweep, and the Sound is impressive, but the BAFTA voters plus the rising buzz of Zone could collect a well-deserved win here.

1. “The Zone of Interest”
2. “Oppenheimer” 
3. “The Creator” 
4. “Maestro”
5. “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”

Achievement in Visual Effects

• “The Creator”  
• “Godzilla Minus One”
• “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
• “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
• “Napoleon”

Achievement in Film Editing

An incredibly well-deserved Oscar.

1. “Oppenheimer,” Jennifer Lame
2. “Poor Things,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
3. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Laurent Sénéchal
4. “The Holdovers,” Kevin Tent
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Thelma Schoonmaker

Achievement in Cinematography

Here is a potential Poor Things win, but I think I gotta go Oppie.

1. “Oppenheimer,” Hoyte van Hoytema
2. “Poor Things,” Robbie Ryan
3. “El Conde,” Edward Lachman
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Rodrigo Prieto
5. “Maestro,” Matthew Libatique

Achievement in Costume Design

Barbie should win this, even though the Poor Things BAFTA voters are a force.

1. “Barbie,” Jacqueline Durran
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Jacqueline West
3. “Napoleon,” Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
4. “Oppenheimer,” Ellen Mirojnick
5. “Poor Things,” Holly Waddington

Best Documentary Feature Film

1. “20 Days in Mariupol”  
2. “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
3. “The Eternal Memory”
4. “Four Daughters”
5. “To Kill a Tiger”

Best Documentary Short Film

This is a tough call. I’m not sure how they deny these lovely ladies for the prize. But I might change my mind.

1. “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó”
2. “The Last Repair Shop”
3. “The ABCs of Book Banning” 
4. “The Barber of Little Rock”
5. “Island in Between”

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Because the whole Academy can vote for this, the youngsters will likely pick Spidey.

1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
2. “The Boy and the Heron”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Nimona”
5. “Robot Dreams”

Best International Feature Film of the Year

1. “The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
2. “Perfect Days,” Japan
3. “Society of the Snow,” Spain
4. “The Teachers’ Lounge,” Germany
5. “Io Capitano,” Italy

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

1. “Maestro”
2. “Golda”
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Poor Things”
5. “Society of the Snow”

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

1. “Oppenheimer,” Ludwig Göransson
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Robbie Robertson
3. “Poor Things,” Jerskin Fendrix
4. “American Fiction,” Laura Karpman
5. “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” John Williams

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

This one is Barbie’s to lose — but which one? I do not know. I’ll stick with Ken for now, might change.

1. “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”
   Music and Lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
2. “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
   Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
3. “The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot”
   Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren
4. “It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”
   Music and Lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
5. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon”
   Music and Lyrics by Scott George

Best Animated Short Film

Ninety-Five Senses is the one I think is the best. But name recognition will likely push War Is Over. I might change.

1. “WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko,” Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
2. “Letter to a Pig,” Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
3. “Ninety-Five Senses,” Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
4. “Our Uniform,” Yegane Moghaddam
5. “Pachyderme,” Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius

Best Live Action Short Film

I know there is a heavy-weight with Wes Anderson. How can it lose? The After is just that good. But who knows.

1. “The After,” Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
2. “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar,” Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
3. “Invincible,” Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
4. “Knight of Fortune,” Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
5. “Red, White and Blue,” Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane

That gives Oppie seven Oscars. If it takes Sound, that’s eight, a record in the expanded ballot era.

Until next we speak again, Oscar Watchers. Which will be very soon.