July 21st of last year Barbenheimer hit theaters. What an exciting time to be alive. We did have an Oscar race by then, at least it seemed so. I stubbornly refused to believe that two features out of the Cannes Film Festival would run the gauntlet and end up in the Oscar race but that is exactly what The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall did, with both Jonathan Glazer and Justine Triet earning Best Director nominations.
Cannes’s heavy influence is due to two main factors: the influx of “international voters” by the thousands into the Academy in the past several years and the weaker slate stateside. When the Oscars become untethered to the economy of the American film industry, as they mostly are now, it doesn’t matter that much where the movies come from. Still, if you have ten slots to fill and not enough movies to fill them there is no choice but to dip from other countries.
The thousands of new members added to the Academy’s roster to even out their demographics went something like this:
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The Academy has almost doubled its membership since I started covering the Oscars in 2000. Those who voted in the Oscars were people who worked in the business for most of their existence. What was nominated and what won had a direct impact on Hollywood’s overall economy. That is no longer the case, it should go without saying. When you add thousands of new members who are only being added because they are “of color” or female, that means you have voters who aren’t as invested in the business of Hollywood anymore. They’re more likely to vote like film critics would — money isn’t a factor.
That’s partly why the Oscars look like the Spirit Awards, Cannes Film Festival, Sundance, or Gothams. They’re all part of the same organism now. The Oscar still has the prestige factor that the others don’t quite as much. An Oscar win is a little like a royal title – it is always paired with the name in news stories and in death. “Oscar nominee…” or “Oscar winner…”
Things have never been quite so dire as they are right now. Can a race be cobbled together with ten Best Picture nominees? Sure. Do we have any idea of what those might be? Maybe. But this early out, it’s hard to say. Last year around this time, this is what I had predicted for Best Picture:
Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
The Killer
Napoleon
Next Goal Wins
Maestro
The Color Purple
Poor Things
Past Lives
Then my alts: Saltburn, Barbie, Ferrari, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Zone of Interest
I had 8/10 including those mentioned in my alts. What was I missing? Anatomy of a Fall and American Fiction. Overall, not that bad?
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
David Fincher, The Killer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Alts: Celine Song, Past Lives; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Emerald Fennell, Saltburn; Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Missing: Jonathan Glazer and Justine Triet.
Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Leo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Michael Fassbender, The Killer (or Next Goal Wins)
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
Alts: Adam Driver, Ferrari; Barry Keoghan, Saltburn; Colman Domingo, Rustin; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Missing: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress:
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Alts: Greta Lee, Past Lives; Annette Bening, Nyad
Missing: Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Supporting Actor:
Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Matt Damon, Oppenheimer
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, The Color Purple
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Missing: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Supporting Actress:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Kaimana, Next Goal Wins
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Alts: Tilda Swinton, The Killer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Missing: America Fererra, Barbie; Jodie Foster, Nyad
It wasn’t entirely impossible last year to see how things might go. I overestimated several films and underestimated a few. But let’s see how things might shape up this year, just for the fun of it.
This is how I see it, which is going to be different from how everyone else sees it. I am still hoping for a BIGGER Oscars than what I’m seeing the pundits around the internet view as Oscar contenders, which can be defined as what movies the critics like best. So much of this can be written off as wishful thinking.
Best Picture
- Joker: Folie a Deux
- Dune: Part Two
- Sing Sing
- Conclave
- Anora
- Gladiator 2
- Here
- Blitz
- Wicked
- The Piano Lesson
Alts: Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2, Queer, The Nickel Boys, Emelia Perez
Best Director
- Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie a Deux
- Denis Villenueve, Dune 2
- Edward Berger, Conclave
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Steve McQueen, Blitz
Alts: Luca Guadagnino, Queer, Kevin Costner, Horizon, Ridley Scott, Gladiator 2, Bob Zemeckis, Here
Best Actor
- Coleman Domingo, Sing Sing
- Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux
- Daniel Craig, Queer
- Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
- Paul Mescal, Gladiator 2
Alt. Tom Hanks, Here, Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice, Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Best Actress
- Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (unless supporting)
- Lady Gaga, Folie a Deux
- Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
- Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
- Mikey Madison, Anora,
Alt. Angelina Jolie, Maria, Amy Adams, Nightbitch, Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
That’s all I got for you today, for what it’s worth. Have a great weekend.
