The Oscar race will begin in just two weeks, when the Telluride and Venice Film Festivals get underway. Shortly thereafter will be Toronto, New York and others. We call this the “film festival” phase.
Unfortunately, that’s mostly what the Oscar race is now. It has become so insular that it’s down to bloggers, critics, publicists and talent. The public does not factor in anymore, not even a little bit. When we talk about the Oscars now, we’re talking about what a group inside the bubble thinks about who and what will be nominated. But they set the consensus, and once it is fixed, it’s very hard to shake up. It can happen if a performance or a movie surprises everyone. That has happened less and less over time, and this year, given the actors and writers strike, with fewer films in contention overall, it’s probably not likely.
The Toronto Film Festival just announced additional films to its lineup. Some of them will have actors that might move the needle but aren’t circulating around the pundit world. I’m thinking specifically of Ron Howard’s Eden, which most people know nothing about. The only reason I know about it is that I went down the rabbit hole. But given the subject matter, and the stars involved — Sydney Sweeney, Vanessa Kirby and Ana De Armas.
Here is the story it’s loosely based on and I’m telling you, it’s wild. I don’t know how much of it will remain in Howard’s movie and I don’t even know which actor is playing which part but if all goes well this should be a bedazzler, at least in my mind.
There are other films circulating outside the sphere of the pundits that also might have some impact on the Best Actress race, like Hedda with Tessa Thompson:
This is a meaty role for Thompson and who was close to getting in for Passing in 2021. This isn’t one of the strongest contenders in the fake Oscar race we all have going on now, which measures our best guesses of what might be rather than what actually is.
The energy over at Gold Derby is very much focuses on this finally being Amy Adams’ year to win the Oscar. Nightbitch is what appears to be a feminist story about an unhappy mother who starts morphing into a dog. If that isn’t peak 2024 I don’t know what is. We know Adams will bring it. Here are her nominations so far from IMDB:
Amy Adams is overdue for a win, and appears to have a strong fan base among Oscar pundits. It is shocking she’s only been nominated once for lead, considering her diverse body of work. She’s an inventive and brave actress, I think, and probably in a good position to win or at least be nominated.
Lady Gaga is the one I’m looking out for this year as Joker Folie a Deux is a musical. She’s playing a villain. It seems to be the exact right part for her to win. In my mind, based on nothing but guesswork, it will be a clash of the titans between Lady Gaga and Karla Sofia Gascon from Emilia Perez who might make history as the first transgender actress to win. This seems like the year for that to happen given the political climate. Will it, I do not know.
Jeff Wells at Hollywood elsewhere insists that Gascon should be in the supporting category, and if placed in that category, she could win. The same is true of Lady Gaga who might land in supporting for Joker Folie a Deux but would probably do so in order to win. That puts her up against Gascon. If one goes lead and the other goes supporting they both could win.
All three women in Emilia Perez look like strong contenders for the Oscar race. How to divide them up into the right categories so they aren’t competing with each other is the question. In Cannes they gave the entire cast the Best Actress prize (a very Greta thing to do). I do not know since I have not yet seen the film, but as usual, I imagine the “making history” impulse could be strong here with Gascon. But Zoe Saldana and Selina Gomez look great too. How to decide?
The Musicals
For some reason, there are an unusual number of musicals this year. Both Joker: Folie a Deux and Emilia Perez are musicals. The musical to beat all other musicals is Wicked, starring Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. Both actresses have juicy roles but there’s a reason Idina Menzel won the Best Actress Tony. She has the better part, which puts Erivo in good stead for recognition if the film does well.
What I like about Lady Gaga in this is that she’s kind of spreading out in the way she does on stage and that might work for her that could overcome the usual stigma when it comes to genre movies and the Oscars. Who knows. It’s too soon to tell.
Another musical is Joshua Oppenheimer’s The End, which is being described as an “apocalyptic musical” starring Tilda Swinton.
Speaking of Tilda Swinton, Pedro Almodovar’s first English-language film, The Room Next Door, features Swinton alongside Julianne Moore. Almodovar is known for writing strong roles for women, so there’s a good chance one of these will be in the best Actress lineup.
After the “film festival phase” we will move on to the agonizing “critics awards phase,” which will further winnow down the offerings and we’ll have a good idea which actress they all want to elevate. They will have a favorite and that favorite will be boosted all through the early season and will likely land in the top five.
Then, we move on to the big guns:
The Golden Globes
The BAFTA
The SAG Awards
Last year’s chart ended up looking like this:
Emma Stone was mostly in the lead, except for SAG. I thought they would “make history” with Lily Gladstone, given their “virtue signaling” about wanting to elevate marginalized groups and their land acknowledgments. I didn’t think they would get the hopes of all those children back in Montana who were hoping for a Gladstone win. I just didn’t think they had it in them, but the heart wants what it wants and Emma Stone is a genius.
So you can see, you have the phases of how the Oscars are shaped. Generally, you want to win the Globe first. It’s not essential, but it helps. The Critics Choice is another publicity opportunity but since they arrive earlier than they used to, they tend to be more influential and less predictive. The BAFTA is a mixed bag since they’ve eliminated the juries. We’ll have to see how that goes. The SAG Awards, being that they’re most actors, tend toward the “making history” end of things.
All of these groups MOST OF THE TIME ultimately result in where the wins land.
At the moment, the five names leading at Gold Derby are:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Mickey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Soairse Ronan, Blitz
Lady Gaga, Folie a Deux
Close behind are names I think could factor in, depending on how the films are received:
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (a Mike Leigh film)
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door
Demi Moore, The Substance
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
Robin Wright, Here
And here are Erik Anderson’s Best Actress predictions as of July, 2024
1. Amy Adams – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures)
2. Angelina Jolie – Maria (TBA)
3. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
4. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON)
5. Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
7. Nicole Kidman – Babygirl (A24)
8. Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros)
9. Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (Sony Pictures Classics)
10. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI)
Any of those are possibilities, especially Angelina Jolie in Maria, given that both Kristen Stewart (for Diana) and Natalie Portman (for Jackie) were nominated. My problem is that to add Jolie I have to remove one and I find that hard to do. So I guess we’ll see how it goes.
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