It happened slowly, then all at once, but I’ve seen enough. The reactions to One Battle After Another have convinced me that it now must be seen as the frontrunner to win Best Picture. I have adjusted the Contender Tracker accordingly. I will lay out my argument (even without having seen the movie; they kindly invited me, however).
First, Warner Bros. should be applauded and highly praised for the risks they’ve taken this year, not just with One Battle After Another, which cost so much money it might not even turn a profit, but with Sinners and Weapons, too. These are easily three of the best movies of the year, and they did not come from a festival. I repeat, did not come from a festival.
Warner Bros. is almost single-handedly saving the film business as we speak, so One Battle After Another or Sinners would make a worthy Best Picture winner in my book. I say that knowing my personal bias will be towards Sinners, though it doesn’t matter what I think. Maybe it never did.
So let’s start with this: the Oscar race often has the movie people want to vote for vs. the movie they feel they have to vote for. If people tell them they have to vote for Sinners because it’s the right thing to do (it is), then they will resist that urge and vote for the one they like. We’ve seen this time and time again, the most obvious example was The Power of the Dog vs. CODA.
So let’s not even bother to play the game. Let’s just announce One Battle After Another as the frontrunner now and save the struggle session. So, why would I say that Sinners is the movie they “should” vote for? I shouldn’t have to say it. Talk about your “one battle after another.” 98 years of Oscar history and not a single Black director has won, even when two films directed by Black directors have won Best Picture.
Ryan Coogler doesn’t need the Oscars. He has the people. He’s brought in major hits like Black Panther and Creed. They weren’t original stories like Sinners, but he has a solid fan base and has earned his success. If he wins Oscars, it should be because he deserves them (he does), not because Hollywood feels obligated.
Let’s talk about real power. Nothing has changed in Hollywood or in corporate America since 2020. The only thing that changed was that they implemented DEI mandates and forced intersectional casting. White saviors and tokenism are in; judging on merit is out. Except that it’s not really, and everyone knows it, or they should.
The same white people who were in power are still in power. Giving people power is not the same thing as power. What is most nauseating about this is watching them pat themselves on the back for giving temporary power to women and people of color. Everyone plays the same game. In fact, they get high off the game. It makes them feel really good. But don’t kid yourselves. That is not real power.
These are absolutely the people who would award a film about racism directed by a white man while skipping over the film about racism directed by a Black man. It isn’t that they are bad people — please don’t tell them that because the virtue signaling will intensify, and that’s the last thing we need. These are people whose image and status matter most of all. Awarding a film they like, like One Battle After Another, should that be the movie they like, is honest. They should do that and not try to do something for the sake of seeming like they’re good people.
Paul Thomas Anderson is as overdue, if not more so, than Ryan Coogler. Many people (not me) believed he should have won in 2007 for There Will Be Blood. This might be the moment the industry finally decides to award him, as it did last year for Sean Baker.
PTA has been making original, daring films for his entire career. I don’t mind people awarding him because he made a great movie. What I mind is what they’re saying about race and racism in America, and putting themselves on the side of the good guys and those who voted for Trump (aka the working class they abandoned) as the bad guys. That is insufferable and intolerable for me personally.
Having said that, I know enough after 26 years of watching the Oscars to admit that in a situation like this, Sinners becomes the “mean old frontrunner” and One Battle After Another becomes the “scrappy underdog that could.” I don’t think I can bear to watch that dynamic play out, folks. I just don’t have the stomach for it.
So let’s just dispense with the performative nature of awards of late and get the dirty job done.
This from the Awards Expert app:
This film will light up Twitter and become ammo in our virtual Civil War. Sinners was already that, unfortunately. It is a movie that deserves to be seen as an artistic masterpiece, but in a time like this, everything becomes ammo, even movies (which is why Weapons is such a great movie — it reflects the idea of using people as weapons). This isn’t necessarily PTA’s doing, but his worldview is reflective of the entire Left right now.
The only dissent might come from those who resent Sean Penn for his comments about “woke” performativism. Ultimately, that won’t matter. What defines a movement isn’t just about what people believe in; it is also about shared enemies. Sean Penn sees Trump as an existential threat; they might forgive him his misdemeanors.
