For much of the time I covered the Osccar race, the central male figure drove the Best Picture race. That changed because Hollywood decided to change. Over a period of years they forced through a new status quo where women and marginalized groups would be elevated and the central male figure would be de-centered from the narrative.
This decision rescued them from having to seem like bad guys amid the Great Awokening (circa 2016-2026) and protected their reputations inside utopia. For a while, it didn’t matter that much because Hollywood was making obscene amounts of money on IPs and franchises wherein they took a generation of movie fans raised on brands and taught them to identify with movies as brands and then watched as they turned out over and over again.
The problem? It was all aimed at boys and men, I guess you could say, also white. By 2020, after the “color revolution” on the streets (which I doubt Aaron Sorkin will dare write about when writing his sequel to the Social Network about January 6th — which he will get wrong) everything had to change. White male leads would have to be balanced out by marginalized tokens, essentially, that would be cast around them. But wherever possible, a woman would replace the traditional male hero. This, to disastrous results for Hollywood.
This would be like if McDonald’s started serving raw broccoli instead of French fries and tofu burgers instead of Big Macs. Their business would collapse almost overnight, but it would make the people at the top look virtuous. And so it goes with Hollywood. They don’t give the people what they want. They give the people what they should want and it isn’t going well for them.
Our central male heroes don’t always have to be white, though that is still the American majority and most people like to see representations of themselves on screen, or at the very least, not always be the be the greatest evil the world has ever known. But we know, in all movies made today, ALL OF THEM, the white men (or sometimes women) will be the villains where the marginalized will always be depicted as virtuous. ALL OF THEM.
The era of Barack Obama (2008-2016) brought with it a new kind of male protagonist, the sensitive, muted Good Man. It’s not Russell Crowe in Gladiator so much as Colin Firth in The King’s Speech. That would influence Best Actor more or less up to today, with not a lot of strong male leads in the race.
Last year, just 3/10 Best Actor contenders were in Best Picture — Ralph Fiennes in Conclave, Adrien Brody in The Brutalist, Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown (he probably should have won, tbh). The year before, all five Best Actor nominees were in Best Picture.
Only twice since they expanded the ballot, 2009, has the Best Actor winner not been in a Best Picture nominee.
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Only three times since then have the Best Actor and Best Picture winners matched:
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
So what drives the nominees if they aren’t driving Best Picture? What pushes them through? For one thing, precursers. The Golden Globes, the Critics Choice, BAFTA and SAG. It’s rare to land nominations in all of those and not end up in Best Actor. Last year, all four of these contenders did:
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Best Actor used to drive Best Picture. But now, it doesn’t as much. Here is how the Best Actor/Best Picture races have gone since 2009
2009 — 2/5 (Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart)
2010 — 5/5 (Colin Firth, The King’s Speech)
2011 — 3/5 (Jean DuJardin, The Artist)
2012 — 3/5 (Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln)
2013 — 5/5 (Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club)
2014 — 4/5 (Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything)
2015 — 2/5 (Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant)
2016 — 4/5 (Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea)
2017 — 4/5 (Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour)
2018 — 4/5 (Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody)
2019 — 3/5 (Joaquin Phoenix, Joker)
2020 — 5/5 (Anthony Hopkins, The Father)
2021 — 2/5 (Will Smith, King Richard)
2022 — 2/5 (Brendan Fraser, The Whale)
2023 — 4/5 (Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer)
2024 — 3/5 (Adrien Brody, The Brutalist)
If you’ll notice, when Best Actor went to a movie not nominated for Best Picture, there were only two nominees in the Best Actor category. Otherwise, the norm is for the winner to be in a Best Picture contender.
That brings us to this year. We don’t yet know how many Best Actor contenders will drive the Best Picture race. But let’s look at the status quo right now of the top ten Best Picture contenders on the Awards App:
One Battle After Another — Leonardo DiCaprio
Sinners — Michael B. Jordan
Hamnet
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme — Timothée Chalamet
Wicked For Good
It Was Just An Accident
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein — Oscar Isaac
Bugonia — Jesse Plemons
And their Best Actor top five:
Timothée Chalamet
Leonardo DiCaprio
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Michael B. Jordan
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
They have Moura in there because of the heavy international base of the Academy. My suggestion would be that if you’re predicting him in that category, that movie is likely your International Feature frontrunner. If it spreads from that category outward, then there is a good chance it is your winner, just saying.
There are several contenders hovering on the fringe of that groupthink:
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
All four of those are, I think, potential nominees. What will drive them is either Best Picture heat, industry veteran status, or a grassroots effort by critics and bloggers.
Clooney — status in the industry
Plemons — status in the industry
Johnson — grassroots
Hawke — grassroots
That’s how I see it. However, I think there is a good argument to be made that the Best Actor contenders attached to Best Picture contenders are the strongest three for nominations:
Chalemet–Marty Supreme
DiCaprio — One Battle
Jordan — Sinners
For those predicting Wagner Moura for Best Actor for Secret Agent, should also be predicting Secret Agent, not It Was Just An Accident, in Best Picture. That seems to make sense.
Now we get to the slightly problematic contenders — Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere has an odd dynamic: the critics don’t like the movie and George Clooney in Jay Kelly. In an ordinary year, both of these would seem like a slam dunk. Springsteen isn’t doing so well with critics or at the box office. It has a lower critics score than the audience score:
It’s tracking to more or less bomb at the box office, too. For his part, Springsteen is on the circuit doing what he can for the movie, hoping for Oscar nominations and box-office success. He played at acoustic set at the Academy museum event and at the AFI last night, wherein he used the moment to blather on about politics, which is the very thing that has, I think, hurt the film’s box office.
Bruce Springsteen: “All hell is breaking loose in the US… Despite how terribly damaged America has been recently, that country and those ideals remain worth fighting for… No kings.”pic.twitter.com/Wvx0lnrAAj
— Thomas Sowell Quotes (@ThomasSowell) October 24, 2025
So the question becomes, does Jeremy Allen White survive if Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere sinks like a stone? Is Bruce high enough status inside utopia, hanging out with the Obamas, Tom Hanks, and the Spielbergs, can White get a nomination? Can the movie get any Oscar nominations?
Jay Kelly is likewise being greeted with the same kind of muted response, with George Clooney himself mostly absent from the campaign trail. But nobody greases the wheels like Netflix and I would imagine lots of sites are getting ad money so they will push this movie, and Clooney on through, which might also be true for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. That’s the unseen part of the Oscar race that is sometimes hard to measure.
My gut tells me that George Clooney is in for Best Actor, and maybe the movie gets in for Best Picture. Maybe. Here are the Netflix movies with Best Actor contenders:
Jay Kelly — George Clooney
Frankenstein — Oscar Isaac
Ballad of a Small Player — Colin Farrell
Train Dreams – Joel Edgerton
Wake Up Dead Man – Daniel Craig
Netflix’s chances of not getting one of those in there are fairly slim, I’d say, and I do not think they will drop the ball with Clooney.
Either way, things will get going with the Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes, both of which have the luxury of six nominees in the category, making them slightly easier to predict. The Globes divides them into drama and musical/comedy.
So here are my Best Actor Globe predictions (In bold, those I think make it into the Oscars):
Drama
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Comedy/Musical
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Daniel Craig, Wake Up Dead Man
But I am thinking hard on Ethan Hawke and Dwayne Johnson, both of whom will need grassroots support to get in. That’s just me. Here are this week’s predictions:
Best Picture
Hamnet
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Wicked for Good
Frankenstein
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Marty Supreme
Bugonia
Weapons
On the bubble: Jay Kelly, It Was Just An Accident, The Secret Agent, F1, A House of Dynamite
Best Director
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
Jim Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
On the bubble: Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme, Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident, Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value, Jon M. Chu, Wicked for Good
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked for Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Chase Infiniti, One Battle
On the bubble: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Best Actor
Timothée Chalament, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
On the bubble: Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine, Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Ariana Grande, Wicked for Good
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man
Supporting Actor
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Original Screenplay
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Weapons
Bugonia
It Was Just An Accident
Adapted Screenplay
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
The Life of Chuck
Frankenstein
Wicked for Good
Casting
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked For Good
Hamnet
Springsteen Deliver Me From Nowhere
International Feature
The Secret Agent
No Other Choice
Sentimental Value
Nouvelle Vague
Sirat
Editing
One Battle After Another
Sinners
F1
Marty Supreme
Weapons
Cinematography
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Production Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners
Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Costume
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Score
Sinners
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
F1
Makeup and Hairstyling
The Smashing Machine
Christy
Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
Sinners
Sound
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Wicked: For Good
One Battle After Another
