2021 is the year where real people, real icons in some cases, were brought to life on screen. We met Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin, Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana, Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball, Lady Gaga as Patrizia Reggiani, Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Bakker, and Jodie Comer who plays Marguerite de Carrouges in the Last Duel. All of these performances have been transformative for the actresses playing them. They are competing with fictitious characters like Olivia Colman as the mother who should not have been a mother in The Lost Daughter, and Alana Haim, a member of the band Haim taking her shot as the muse of Paul Thomas Anderson’s wayward youth. Rachel Zegler, also a newcomer, brings Maria to life in West Side Story.
The critics and even the Hollywood Foreign Press have left Jennifer Hudson off their list. It’s not surprising, considering no one in Oscarland was predicting her, nor championing her. It was as if she had never given a performance that good in a movie that was well-received by the public, even if the critics were not that high on it. It was nonetheless a disappointment that she could not find a place on the Globes list but that’s probably because she was competing in the Drama category, not the Musical/Comedy side.
The reason I keep harping on it isn’t just because only one black woman in nearly 100 years of Oscar history has won the damn lead actress Oscar, but because Hudson’s Aretha Franklin is one of the best performances of the year and the only reason she isn’t being included has to do with the way award season works, not her performance itself. It has everything to do with buzz, perception, and popularity. If the critics don’t acknowledge her, which they have not – then it’s hard to build the kind of momentum you need to land a nod.
Granted, Hudson’s was not the only Aretha Franklin turn we saw this year – Cynthia Erivo also played her in the Nat Geo special. The difference is that Hudson won the praise of Franklin herself, and that counts for a lot. Hudson would just need a little support from the bloggerati. Just a little bit of re-re-re–re-spect. It is a way of celebrating a woman who overcame all of the obstacles any black woman would have experienced in the 1960s. It is about her spiritual journey from preacher’s daughter to activist to legend. It is about her unhealthy relationship with abusive men and how she wrestled control of her own personal and creative life. Franklin was not a victim. She was not taken under by life. She fought back. She triumphed. This film is a tribute to her.
The entire production is the answer to the nonstop demands from critics and celebrities for years. You know, the same people who canceled the Golden Globes for alleged racial bias? Here is a film written and directed by black women, starring a black woman, edited by a woman, co-produced by a woman, about a black woman, and the response to all that is “meh”? Okay – well, here you have the opportunity to be as inclusive as so many seem to be demanding.
I know people want to get back to just awarding the best regardless of equity concerns – but Hudson did give one of the best of the year. Anyway, it is what it is. But I would be remiss if I did not give her one more push.
Ranking the Potential Winners
Last year blew out the stats for Best Actress since McDormand hadn’t won either the Globe or the SAG. But when it comes to nominees, she was, however, nominated by both groups. That means our potential winner should have at least a Globe or a SAG nom. Since we don’t know the SAG noms yet, let’s focus on the Globes. Last year, all five of the drama nominees at the Globes went on to Oscar nominations. There were none from the Musical/Comedy category.
It is kind of hit and miss which contenders come from Musical/Comedy and get nominations. They do seem to have a better shot at winning in that category than just being a nominee, like Olivia Colman in The Favourite, Emma Stone in La La Land, and Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook. This year, the two in that category that seem to have the best shot at an Oscar nom would be:
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
But if either of them gets in, we have to lose one of the drama contenders.
If we move over to the Critics Choice and merge those with the Globes we get:
Stewart
Gaga
Kidman
Colman
Chastain
Haim
So now we have to lose one of those just for the Oscar nominations. I would ordinarily say Haim because she’s the least experienced and gives the least challenging performance – but then again, you never know. If they are in love with the film, as many are, that could push her through. I would imagine Chastain might be vulnerable. But again, I don’t know. If Hudson is to find a place, we have to lose two names.
It looks like our frontrunner to win, at least right now, remains Kristen Stewart in Spencer. Stewart clearly felt the spirit of Diana while playing this part, as it goes much deeper, I think, than any other this year. She connected deeply with the subject and it shows every time she’s on screen. True, the film itself is like Jackie – meaning, it’s a impressionistic portrait of a person. Even if the film isn’t going to be universally admired, it’s hard to deny how good Stewart is in the role. It doesn’t hurt that she’s stunningly beautiful and in her prime as an actress. She’ll also be a first-time nominee, which helps generate buzz around a potential win.
Since I have to give up on Hudson as a challenger (unless the SAG and BAFTA somehow revive her status in the race), it leaves the door open for another. Jessica Chastain still hasn’t won an Oscar and is very overdue. She shines beneath transformative makeup and becomes Tammy Faye, which might mean she can gather some consensus support. Nicole Kidman is brilliant as Lucy and would be looking at her second Oscar win. Being the Ricardos, at least right now, has broader support across the board than Spencer or Tammy Faye.
We don’t yet know how well-liked House of Gucci will be among Oscar voters, but for now, it looks like Lady Gaga‘s nomination is their best bet, which puts her in the same place as Stewart and Chastain, without broader support for the movie. But you never know.
Olivia Colman won lead fairly recently so it seems unlikely she could pull in a second win so soon, but you never know. She gives a very good performance in The Lost Daughter as only she can. Prickly, surprising, vanity-free, the whole film is driven by her inner world. She doesn’t play a likable character, but she’s so good it’s hard to not see hers as one of the best performances of the year.
Tessa Thompson stars in Passing, which was admired by the critics enough that Ruth Negga has made it into Supporting here and there. So there’s always the chance they will decide not to vote for Hudson and vote for Thompson instead if they liked that movie more. Unfortunately, because these are mostly white voters in the Academy, their votes between Thompson and Hudson could split, leaving neither of them with a nomination.
Penelope Cruz is also a standout in Parallel Mothers and for whatever reason is also not really in the running. That could be because she is one of two female stars and they see it as a co-lead. Either way, it’s a strong turn by her in one of Pedro Almodovar’s very best.
No matter how you slice it, this is shaping up to be a competitive year for Best Actress. Whatever it is that drives a winner this year, I imagine, will be based on momentum. We won’t have the Golden Globe ceremony as a major televised event to drive momentum for anyone. There will be the Critics Choice, which will be a dry run, perhaps, and then of course the SAG awards where the winner there could definitely tip the balance in someone’s favor. Or not. We’ve seen more than a few surprise Oscar winners in the past few years, most notably Olivia Colman’s.
In my opinion, as someone who has been writing about the Oscars for a very long time, the closer the Oscars are to the sensibilities of the critics the farther they are from the sensibilities of the public. One of the ways to help rectify that disparity is to make sure to also honor films that are popular with the public. I don’t know whether that will be possible this year, but I do know you could do worse than honoring a film like Respect that honors a legend who has touched the lives of almost every American at one time or another.
