Now that we’ve heard from a big guild, a really big guild, arguably the biggest guild, and a big awards show – the BAFTA, which can be influential too, it’s time to take a temperature check of where we stand in the major categories.
Next weekend, we will get even more intel before final ballots are in the hands of Oscar voters. Let’s get into it.
Best Picture
Can Top Gun Still Win?
I was watching Robert Redford’s Quiz Show yesterday and in the scene where John Turturro as Herb Stempel is expected to take a dive and lose on the question: “Which motion picture won the Academy Award for 1955?” The humiliation for Stempel is that he would be the one person in the country who did not know the answer. Robert Redford and the makers of Quiz Show put that scene in not realizing that all of these years later, after 1955 and after 1994, most people in this country could not name a single Best Picture winner of the last ten years. They might be able to pull up Titanic. But that’s it.
Awarding Top Gun Maverick this year would be a way for the industry to open its doors once again to the public to allow them to be part of what has become an elitist bubble. But we all know that dog Luna is more likely to sprout wings and fly to Las Vegas before Top Gun Maverick wins Best Picture. That’s too bad but it is the reality.
But if Top Gun Maverick wins the Producers Guild award, which it might, and if it wins, say, adapted Screenplay at the WGA awards or the Oscars, then it could win Best Picture. I am guessing that the PGA and SAG and eventual Oscar winner is still Everything Everywhere All Once for a variety of reasons. When Birdman began winning after Boyhood won the Globe, it didn’t do that well at BAFTA, winning only Cinematography. I assume that Everything Everywhere is likely to follow the same trajectory.
BAFTA REVOLT
There seems to be no scenario wherein another BAFTA-like sweep of All Quiet on the Western Front could come from behind and overtake a dominant force like Everything, Everywhere All at Once. But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. We thought there was no scenario for CODA to win and no scenario for Parasite to win either. There is one observable fact, however, of those two movies vs. All Quiet. They both won the SAG ensemble.
While it’s true that All Quiet has no SAG, no PGA or DGA that doesn’t mean people didn’t vote for it. Like CODA last year, it likely means people just didn’t see it. They should be encouraged to see the British dub, which is quite good surprisingly, and that will give them an easier sit. Hard to believe, but a lot of people avoid films that are subtitled. Sorry but that’s the truth. It took them a while to catch up with Parasite too.
The only thing that really matters now is what will motivate Oscar voters when they get ballots in hand. Which movie are they voting FOR and which movie are they voting against and most importantly, which movie are they likely to push to the tops of their ballots and why.
If Everything Everywhere was going to lose anywhere it would have been at the DGA or the PGA. It does seem to be supercharged to win the SAG. If it doesn’t then that will be a sign its momentum has been slowed. But I fully expect it to win there for a variety of reasons. But let’s start with the big one: intersectionality.
Believe it or not, a cloud still hangs over the awards race, despite the BAFTA REVOLT we saw develop yesterday loud and clear. That meant they stubbornly voted for the performances they liked rather than voting with equity in mind. That is, to give non-white people and films a boost to make things more fair and even. They didn’t do that and the result was very loud and angry among many people on Twitter.
To most of the activists online, they feel “safe” if things are fair and equitable. They feel “unsafe” if they aren’t. This is the trauma blowback from the last few years of social upheaval. They can’t stand feeling like “bad white people” so they want to see things diversified. Everywhere. I personally think this is a negative for actors of color because they can’t escape their cage of skin color. They are only seen as a symbol – a token, if you will, to make guilty whites feel better. It isn’t fair. They can never be awarded on merit if they are always judged as a type.
But either way, it doesn’t matter. Activism and a need for representation is still driving much of the awards industry overall. That isn’t the only reason people love Everything Everywhere but it might mean they push it to the top of their preferential ballot even if they didn’t love it. The Producers Guild will guide us further on that.
Frontrunner: Everything Everywhere All At once
Challengers: All Quiet on the Western Front, Top Gun Maverick (if it wins PGA)
Best Actor
Now that Austin Butler has won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, it does seem like he has the momentum to carry through to an Oscar win. However, if Brendan Fraser or Colin Farrell wins the SAG Award then obviously that means that actor could win the Oscar. Americans are a different breed, but American actors especially. I am personally still on the fence, though I think the edge has to go to Butler at the moment because of the success of Elvis overall. The film made $150 million at the box office. He’s playing a beloved icon and he nailed the performance. It is nominated across the board and is likely to win at least one award in the crafts.
While the public might not remember what wins Best Picture, they will definitely remember if Austin Butler wins for playing Elvis Presley. It will be a win for the ages, and one people might actually tune in to see go down. His performance was the only thing I saw reach TikTok at the levels that a performance that seeps into the public consciousness would. Baz Luhrmann worked with Austin Butler for five years to bring that performance to life. That is significant.
Frontrunner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Challengers: Brendan Fraser (Critics Choice), Colin Farrell (Globes).
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett has now won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, and the BAFTA. That seems to lock in her win. Can Michelle Yeoh still take it home? If she wins the SAG Award, then probably. There is still a scenario where Blanchett would pull it through regardless. Yeoh has the Golden Globe so far. Viola Davis won the SAG for The Help but Meryl Streep had won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA and then won the Oscar. TAR has across-the-board support and that likely means it gets the win here too.
Best Supporting Actress
Chadwick Boseman did not win the BAFTA nor did he win the Oscar in 2020. Anthony Hopkins did, partly because The Father had a Best Picture nomination. Angela Bassett might benefit from the conversation around race of late, and she might benefit from her own legacy of great performances and no Oscar wins. But then again, The Banshees of Inisherin has a ton of acting nominations at the Oscars. Is it really going to go home empty-handed? Condon is the heart and soul of that film and is really more of a lead performance. I think there’s a scenario that might play out similar to 2019 where voters feel vindicated by choosing a film that is intersectional for Best Picture, leaving them free to choose based on performance in the acting categories.
Although we have to wait to see what the SAG will do, I think love for Banshees overall is going to drive someone to a win.
Frontrunner: Kerry Condon, Banshees of Inisherin
Challenger: Angela Bassett, Black Panther Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Here I do think that Ke Huy Quan probably has the award, mainly because he has such a great “Oscar story.” He is so charismatic and every time he gives an interview it’s a moving experience. What a comeback. He thought his career was over after starring in The Temple of Doom. Then he gets this great part and is afraid to tell people out of fear he will get fired. I get chills just thinking about it. To deny him this win would be a shame. He also deserves it. Like Condon, he’s basically a leading role in the supporting category. That said, Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson are magnificent in Banshees too.
Frontrunner: Ke Huy Quan, EEAAO
Challenger: Barry Keoghan, Banshees
Best Director
Can Steven Spielberg still come out front and win here? The Daniels won the DGA and the DGA usually predicts the Best Director Oscar win. I can’t totally let go of Spielberg here, though it’s in long shot territory. The only time in recent memory (other than Argo, which was a one-off) that the DGA winner did not win the Oscar was 1917 vs. Parasite. So unless another movie Parasites its way to victory, the Daniels have this locked up.
Frontrunner: The Daniels, EEAAO
Challengers: Spielberg, Field
Original Screenplay
This isn’t that hard but we should watch and see what they do at the WGA awards. If we really are in blowout territory, the Daniels will win for this — though the film is more of a director’s movie than a writer’s movie. The story is simplistic. But if it wins it will be out of pure love for the film. Still, the writing by Martin McDonagh is beyond sublime. If they pass this up, they’re fools.
Frontrunner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Challengers: EEAAO, The Fabelmans
Adapted Screenplay
After the BAFTAs, it seems that All Quiet on the Western Front could challenge Sarah Polley but only if All Quiet is set to upset in a big way. Given the ideology and sensibilities of the actors branch I still have to give the edge to Polley with that caveat. If All Quiet is going to win BP it has to win Adapted Screenplay too because it isn’t nominated for Director. Similarly, if Top Gun Maverick is going to surprise in Best Picture – like if the Academy voters suddenly decide they want to be part of the whole country again, then it will have to win here, though that is an extreme long shot (it is a good screenplay, though).
Frontrunner: Women Talking
Challenger: All Quiet on the Western Front, Top Gun Maverick
Cinematography
Frontrunner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Challenger: TAR
Editing
Frontrunner: Top Gun Maverick
Challenger: EEAAO
Production Design
Frontrunner: Babylon
Challenger: Avatar the Way of Water
Sound
Frontrunner: Top Gun Maverick
Challenger: All Quiet on the Western Front
Costumes
Frontrunner: Elvis
Challenger: EEAAO
Visual Effects
Frontrunner: Avatar
Challenger: None
Original Score
Frontrunner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Challengers: The Fabelmans, Babylon
Song
Frontrunner: Naatu Naatu
Challenger: Hold My Hand
Makeup and Hair
Frontrunner: Elvis
Challenger: The Whale
Documentary Feature
Frontrunner: All the Beauty and Bloodshed
Challengers: Navalny, Fire of Love
Animated Feature
Frontrunner: GDT’s Pinocchio
Challenger: Marcel the Shell, Turning Red
International Feature
Frontrunner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Challenger: Argentina 1985
Live Action Short
Frontrunner: An Irish Goodbye
Challengers: Night Ride, The Red Suitcase, Ivalu, Le Pupille
Animated Short
Frontrunner: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Challengers: An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It, Ice Merchants, The Flying Sailor, My Year of Dicks
Documentary Short:
Frontrunner: None at the moment
