2024 Oscar Predictions: Award Shows While Rome Burns

There is a consensus that has emerged, but it’s one that could be upended by the big guilds, depending on how they go. But at the moment, it feels like attention is focused on what is unfolding as a dystopian presidential election. This will suck all of the oxygen out of the room, but hopefully Jimmy Kimmel won’t go too political. That is the last thing the Oscars need, even if it’s difficult now to stay away from it. What he should do is joke about both sides, not just one. That might go a long way toward making more people feel welcome at the Oscars again.

I won’t hold my breath.

I thought I would go through the awards consensus at Gold Derby to see how it’s all shaking down. Once we know we have a winner, the whole race can flatline fairly quickly. For now, though, it’s all quiet on the Oscar front. There aren’t many “take-down” pieces against actresses. No whisper campaigns as far as I can tell. If things are happening, they’re off my radar.

There have been some funny bits with Stephen Colbert and Christopher Nolan:

Colbert did a multi-part interview with Nolan that is well worth the watch — and I have to say, I’m happy to see Nolan going viral and being celebrated in town. It’s well deserved and it’s nice to see.

So it isn’t surprising we have a bonafide frontrunner that’s been the frontrunner, more or less, for months now. But what else do we see if we look at what the Gold Derby experts are picking?

Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Best Actress:
Emma Stone, Poor Things — 13
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon — 6
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall — 2

Best Actor:
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers — 10
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer — 9
Bradley Cooper, Maestro — 1

Supporting Actor:
Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer — 19
Ryan Gosling, Barbie — 1

Supporting Actress:
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers — 18
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple — 1
America Ferrera, Barbie — 1

Original Screenplay:
Anatomy of a Fall — 14
The Holdovers — 5
Past Lives — 1

Adapted Screenplay:
Oppenheimer — 9
Barbie — 7
American Fiction — 4

I go back and forth on Original Screenplay between The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall, and in Adapted Screenplay between Oppenheimer and Barbie. It is very rare for any film to win Picture, Director, and Screenplay. It happens but it’s rare. It’s nearly unheard of for a film to get Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Actor. The last time that happened was for The King’s Speech, and it was the only time it happened in the era of the expanded Best Picture lineup.

So the question I guess we should ask ourselves is this: how many Oscars can Oppenheimer win?

It seems locked for these and many are predicting this many at least:
Picture
Director
Supporting Actor
Editing
Cinematography
Score
Sound

The most it could win on a really good night would be:
Picture
Director
Screenplay
Actor
Supporting Actor
Editing
Cinematography
Score
Sound
Production Design

If it did that it would break a record. Here are how the wins have been divided thus far:

As you can see, movies in the modern era do not win 10 Oscars, not even close. They’d have to really hate the other movies or not feel excited voting for them. As it is today, the Academy would have to make major changes to get back to where a movie like Oppenheimer will sweep. Without the identity component, what will make people feel passionate and why? An “exciting” Oscar race often means it is unpredictable. But that unpredictability can often mean there are undeserving wins that make sense in the moment but can’t possibly stand the test of time.

Here are my predictions for this week, for what it’s worth:

Best Motion Picture of the Year

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Holdovers
3. American Fiction
4. Poor Things
5. Barbie
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Maestro
8. Anatomy of a Fall
9. The Zone of Interest
10. Past Lives

Best Actor

1. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

Best Actress

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things
3. Annette Bening, Nyad
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
5. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
2. Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
3. Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
4. Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
2. Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
3. Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
4. America Ferrera, “Barbie”
5. Jodie Foster, “Nyad”

Achievement in Directing

1. “Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan
2. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet
3. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Martin Scorsese
4. “Poor Things,” Yorgos Lanthimos
5. “The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer

Adapted Screenplay

1. “Barbie,” Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
2. “American Fiction,” Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
3. “Oppenheimer,” Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
4. “Poor Things,” Screenplay by Tony McNamara
5. “The Zone of Interest,” Written by Jonathan Glazer

Original Screenplay

1. “The Holdovers,” Written by David Hemingson
2. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Screenplay — Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
3. “Maestro,” Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
4. “May December,” Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
5. “Past Lives,” Written by Celine Song

Achievement in Production Design

1. “Barbie” 
2. “Poor Things”
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. “Napoleon”

Achievement in Sound

1. “Oppenheimer” 
2. “The Zone of Interest”
3. “The Creator” 
4. “Maestro”
5. “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”

Achievement in Visual Effects

• “The Creator”  
• “Godzilla Minus One”
• “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
• “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
• “Napoleon”

Achievement in Film Editing

1. “Oppenheimer,” Jennifer Lame
2. “Poor Things,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
3. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Laurent Sénéchal
4. “The Holdovers,” Kevin Tent
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Thelma Schoonmaker

Achievement in Cinematography

1. “Oppenheimer,” Hoyte van Hoytema
2. “Poor Things,” Robbie Ryan
3. “El Conde,” Edward Lachman
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Rodrigo Prieto
5. “Maestro,” Matthew Libatique

Achievement in Costume Design

1. “Barbie,” Jacqueline Durran
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Jacqueline West
3. “Napoleon,” Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
4. “Oppenheimer,” Ellen Mirojnick
5. “Poor Things,” Holly Waddington

Best Documentary Feature Film

1. “20 Days in Mariupol”  
2. “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
3. “The Eternal Memory”
4. “Four Daughters”
5. “To Kill a Tiger”

Best Documentary Short Film

1. “The Last Repair Shop”
2. “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó” 
3. “The ABCs of Book Banning” 
4. “The Barber of Little Rock”
5. “Island in Between”

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
2. “The Boy and the Heron”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Nimona”
5. “Robot Dreams”

Best International Feature Film of the Year

1. “The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
2. “Perfect Days,” Japan
3. “Society of the Snow,” Spain
4. “The Teachers’ Lounge,” Germany
5. “Io Capitano,” Italy

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

1. “Maestro”
2. “Golda”
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Poor Things”
5. “Society of the Snow”

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

1. “Oppenheimer,” Ludwig Göransson
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Robbie Robertson
3. “Poor Things,” Jerskin Fendrix
4. “American Fiction,” Laura Karpman
5. “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” John Williams

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

1. “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”
   Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
2. “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
   Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
3. “The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot”
   Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
4. “It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”
   Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
5. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon”
   Music and Lyric by Scott George

Best Animated Short Film

1. “WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
2. “Letter to a Pig,” Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
3. “Ninety-Five Senses,” Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
4. “Our Uniform,” Yegane Moghaddam
5. “Pachyderme,” Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius

Best Live Action Short Film

1. “The After,” Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
2. “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar,” Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
3. “Invincible,” Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
4. “Knight of Fortune,” Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
5. “Red, White and Blue,” Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane