The SAG ensemble award has become the most important touchstone that decides Best Picture of late. This hasn’t always been true, and it’s still a bit of a head-scratcher as to why it is true now. I personally think it relates directly to the timing of guild ceremonies. The DGA didn’t used to go first — the PGA did. The SAG used to happen the day after the PGA. The last guild award was usually the DGA.
In the old days, it used to go (I’m doing this from memory, and we’re talking about the era of the preferential ballot from 2009 until the Great Awokening of roughly 2020 when there was a major reset in the awards race. And one of the big changes, for a variety of reasons was moving Oscar Night a bit later, well into March. I personally have always liked them later, not earlier, so that there is more time for people to get to know the movies before they vote on them. At any rate, this is more or less how it looked in the 2018/2019 cycle):
From AwardsWatch:
Golden Globes — January 6, 2019
PGA – January 19, 2019
SAG – January 27, 2019
DGA — February 2, 2019
BAFTA — February 10, 2019
Oscars — February 24, 2019
This year, it looks like this:
Globes — January 7th, 2024 (same time they did it before)
DGA — February 10, 2024 (later)
BAFTA — February 18, 2024 (later)
SAG — February 24, 2024 (a whole month later)
PGA — February 25, 2024 (more than a whole month later)
Oscars — March 10, 2024 (quite a few days later)
Oscar voting ends right after the SAG/PGA awards drop, Thus, these two award ceremonies now have elevated importance when it comes to guiding some of the Oscar voters to make their final decisions. Let’s look at the history in the era of the preferential ballot:
2009
The Hurt Locker — PGA, DGA, Best Picture + Best Director
Inglourious Basterds — SAG ensemble
2010
The King’s Speech — PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble, Best Picture + Best Director
2011
The Artist — PGA, DGA, Best Picture + Best Director
The Help — SAG ensemble
2012
Argo — PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble, Best Picture
Life of Pi — Best Director
2013
12 Years a Slave — PGA (tie), Best Picture
Gravity — PGA (tie), DGA, Best Director
American Hustle — SAG ensemble
2014
Birdman — PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble, Best Picture + Best Director
2015
The Big Short — PGA
The Revenant — DGA, Best Director
Spotlight — SAG ensemble, Best Picture
2016
La La Land — PGA, DGA, Best Director
Moonlight — Best Picture
Hidden Figures — SAG ensemble
2017
The Shape of Water — PGA, DGA, Best Picture + Best Director
Three Billboards — SAG ensemble
2018
Green Book — PGA, Best Picture
Roma — DGA, Best Director
Black Panther — SAG ensemble
2019
1917 — PGA, DGA
Parasite — SAG ensemble, Best Picture + Best Director
2020
Nomadland — PGA, DGA, Best Picture + Best Director
Trial of the Chicago 7 — SAG ensemble
2021
The Power of the Dog — DGA, Best Director
CODA — PGA, SAG ensemble, Best Picture
2022
Everything Everywhere All at Once — PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble, Best Picture + Best Director
From 2009 to 2019, we had three SAG ensemble winners that went on to win Best Picture — three in 11 years. From 2019 to 2022, we had three SAG ensemble winners go on to win Best Picture — three in just four years. So there does seem to have been a change, at least from my perspective. That’s a combination of two possible factors. One is the date change. The other is the “Great Awokening.” Actors, in particular, do seem more inclined toward voting to make history. At least that was true in the past.
This year, the actors have a chance to make history with Lily Gladstone. They have a chance to award a veteran with Annette Bening. Or they have a chance to give Emma Stone a second Oscar, seven years after her first win in 2016, for La La Land.
If they do go for Gladstone, they may feel more comfortable voting for Oppenheimer for ensemble. Oppenheimer is full of well-known actors.
Let’s look at the casts from the various films.
You have two all-Black casts here, and for any faction of voters that may want to put their weight behind a film that features mostly non-white characters, those two might split that vote. The same would go for Killers of the Flower Moon. Then again, awarding Killers in ensemble gives voters a chance to pick Lily Gladstone AND Emma Stone, if that is the way they want to go.
My hunch is that they will pick Oppenheimer because they want to, because they believe it is the best film of the year, despite the fact that is not what one might call “diverse.” 2017’s Three Billboards was the last time they picked a movie with a predominantly white cast that wasn’t also deaf, six years ago.
The Parasite win was a gateway drug. It was euphoric for anyone who remembers that experience. For Parasite to beat strong ensembles like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Bombshell, and The Irishman was remarkable. It set the trend to make history and have a satisfying end to the whole saga.
The momentum for Oppenheimer right now feels unstoppable, but the PGA and SAG ensemble results this weekend now loom over the race. Will we see a year like 2012 when Argo swept all of the guilds and BAFTA? Usually, by this point we’ve already done the PGA — but now we have that vote to sweat on Sunday night, right after the SAG. The most likely scenario is Oppenheimer takes both and runs a clean sweep of the awards.
But…with actors in SAG and a preferential ballot in play at the PGA, you never know. Tomorrow, we will preview the PGA.
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