NextGen Oscarwatcher: What Cannes can tell us about the Oscar race (and what it can’t)

After months of waiting to see what the most revered and prestigious film festival would present to those in attendance, the recipients of awards of the 78^th annual Cannes Film Festival have been revealed. Though not everything hit the way people expected, there was much to be excited about, and those who were honored were honored in a way that felt respectful and deserved, judging from the reactions to those who attended (aka Film Twitter).

The jury, led by the great Juliette Binoche, gave the following (credit to Vanity Fair for the text).

Palme d’Or
Jafar Panahi — It Was Just an Accident

Grand Prix
Joachim Trier — Sentimental Value

Jury Prize
Tie: Mascha Schilinski — Sound of Falling; Oliver Laxe — Sirat

Best Director
Kleber Mendonça Filho — The Secret Agent

Best Screenplay
Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne — Young Mothers

Best Actress
Nadia Melliti —The Little Sister

Best Actor
Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent

Special Prize
Bi Gan — Resurrection

In what was a bit of a surprise was given the main award to Jafar Panahi’s film, It Was Just An Accident over Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. One could argue it was a battle of importance vs what was considered the “film” of the festival, as Panahi’s project feels more urgent, given its production history and what is occurring with Panahi. Still, both projects have received strong acclaim, and with Neon at the helm(the clear dominators of the festival in addition to Mubi), it’s clear the fall film festivals will have these projects one way or another. Mascha Schilinski’s Sound of Falling and Oliver Laxe’s Sirât tied for the jury prize. Neon also picked up Filho’s The Secret Agent, which took home two awards for Director and Actor, while films by Bi Gan, Hafsia Herzi, and the Dardenne brothers were also given mentions.

What might this mean:

Cannes has become a launching pad for awards contenders, and, considering the international flavor of the academy, it seems wise to predict one, two, or even three projects to land in some capacity in the awards race. Neon, having arguably the three big contenders in It Was An Accident, Sentimental Value, and The Secret Agent, means one or two will likely be pushed more than the other. Still, I do not doubt these projects can go far given the academy’s recent sensibilities. Mubi also had a good festival, having picked up Sound of Falling, and films by Reichardt and Hermanus, though the reviews on those projects are more mixed than those of Neon’s. Projects that surprised everyone (for better or worse), were that of the latest works by Ducournau and Aster, where polarization (or even disapproval) was felt.

Oscar predictions post Cannes:

It seems like a losing game to keep switching predictions, but considering what we now know, is there a soft frontrunner in Best Picture after hearing about the Cannes reactions? If you were active on Film Twitter, it’s clear that those in attendance fell head over heels for Trier’s sentimental film (no pun intended there) and see it as a major contender. Though it did not win the Palme d’Or, many have positioned it as the discovery or “the one” of the festival, even more so than Panahi’s project. It will undoubtedly be a big hit among the critics and bloggers when it premieres in America, and I hope to catch it if it goes to Telluride (or New York). Even if it is not a nominee for Best Picture, it could be a frontrunner in International Feature, though that race is heating up with much competition.

I’ve been fairly adamant about having Paul Thomas Anderson’s film as my “default frontrunner,” considering the pedigree of the cast and crew. However, I have never been confident in it (nor should anyone in one’s predictions this early), which means it’s probably not the winner unless you believe in blind luck.

With Joachim Trier’s film opening to raves from Cannes, it’s clear many will position THAT as the new frontrunner, and, considering its reviews, it could go all the way, though it’s way too early to make that distinction.

Many people believe Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is the original genre underdog that will go the distance, considering its zeitgeist nature. That, too, could go fairly far; it’s tough to say.

The one I am keeping an eye on now is that of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme starring Timothee Chalamet, which, in my eyes, could be the fall festival premiere that surprises everyone and goes far. Others I have considered include Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt, Mona Fastvold’s Ann Lee, Jon M. Chu’s Wicked For Good, Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia, and, with the Palme d’Or win, Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident.

It’s gonna be a big year, and this is just the start. Here are my updated above-the-line predictions below

Best Picture

1. Marty Supreme
2. Sentimental Value
3. Sinners
4. One Battle After Another
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Ann Lee
7. Jay Kelly
8. After The Hunt
9. Bugonia
10. It Was Just An Accident

Best Director

1. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
4. Mona Fastvold, Ann Lee
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Best Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me From Nowhere
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Actress

1. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
2. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
3. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
4. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
5. Stephen Graham (or Jeremy Strong), Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

1. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimetal Value

(Regina Hall could go lead for OBAH, which is why I have removed her until further notice)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sentimental Value
2. Marty Supreme
3. Jay Kelly
4. Sinners
5. After the Hunt

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Bugonia
3. The Life of Chuck
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Hedda

Best Casting

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Jay Kelly
5. Sentimental Value

If you want to follow me on twitter, the link is here