The teaser for the trailer for Kogonada’s Big Bold Beautiful Journey has dropped, starring Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell:
With a September 19 release date, it makes me think the film could work the festival circuit, which is a smart route to take because Oscar bloggers lose their shit in the presence of big stars and what better way to gain a buzz bounce at the outset than to have Margot Robbie in the house. Maybe, maybe not. I feel very out of the loop these days, if there is a loop to be had among the small group of people who are invested in the Oscar race, either because they’re passionate about it or they’re getting paid to be passionate about it.
The script was well-liked on The Black List, which means it’s available online to read, and there is even a review for the screenplay. But be warned, a director like Kogonada is likely to have re-interpreted the film. I’m not really vibing Oscar for this, at least not in looking over the screenplay. It could be either a big hit or a massive failure since it’s a big swing movie. I hope it’s good. We could all use a little feelgood romance in our lives. It’s giving slight Here vibes, the Robert Zemeckis miss from last year. There are worse things in life than looking at Robbie and Farrel on screen together so here’s hoping.
The Oscar coverage is still all about groupthink. I am someone who resists listening to or reading other people’s opinions because I don’t want mine shaped by theirs. The two biggest accounts on Twitter right now who cover the Oscars The Oscar Expert vs. The Awards Contender.
The Awards Contender with 67K subs has put out a Best Actor predictions with 12K views:
The Oscar Expert with Brother Bro slightly behind Brian Rowe with 63K subs. They do a lot of movie reviews but here is their latest Oscar predictions video with 26K views:
This was before the Cannes winners were announced, and we know that these have changed since. If you go to the Oscar Expert app, you can see that Sentimental Value has zoomed to number one with a bullet by at least one of these two guys.
Since there isn’t a public component anymore to the Oscar race, and it’s all cultivated and curated inside the hot house, we can pretty much go by what the bloggers think. That takes the fun out of it, for sure, and makes it something of a niche curiosity. It would be much better for the Oscars and the industry if a movie like Sinners came along, captured the zeitgeist, and triumphed. It is currently sitting just behind Minecraft as the #2 highest-grossing film of this year, and it is not a sequel, remake, or IP.
But this is still the house all of us built and the public doesn’t factor in as much. Still, I would caution the Girl Next Door vs. the One Night Stand theory of mine when it comes to Best Picture. The Girl Next Door is the tried and true contender that has been there all along. No matter how many one night stands come after that, the Girl Next Door ultimately prevails. This has been the case since the Oscars rolled back their date by one month from late March to late February. This year, they’re being held in early March.
For whatever reason, the one night stands, passionate though they may be, perhaps even a proposal is made before the night is over, don’t last even a few weeks in the afterglow. Voters prefer to marry the one that they know is the best choice. Coming in as a late-breaker in December without proper time to embed in the awards race hasn’t produced an Oscar winner since the date change.
That the Cannes Film Fest or even Sundance can produce Best Picture winners now proves the theory. Whether it’s how the Oscars are covered, or whether the public has been left out of the equation, the fact remains that the films that win are films seen early. Even though plenty of films will rise and fall between now and the Oscars, that puts Sinners in the sweet spot as the Girl Next Door. But there is still time for another film to overtake it. I don’t think we’ve seen it yet.
You can follow me on the Awards Expert App, which is fast becoming the hottest place to be when it comes to Oscar predicting, at least, all that remains of it at this early stage. The big changes since Cannes include the rise of Sentimental Value and Jennifer Lawrence landing in the Best Actress category, though I still have the win down to Julia Roberts for After the Hunt vs. Cynthia Erivo for Wicked for Good (it might be neither of those).
Here are my current predictions on the Awards App. There is a really good option they have where you can click the camera and see all of your picks. My suggestion would be to put title cards on those so that we can see the name and film. But it’s cool!
The other big change I made was in swapping out Michael B. Jordan (for now) for Jeremy Allen White in the Springsteen biopic, Deliver Me From Nowhere. The reason is the phantasmagoria of the awards voters inside the bubble and their need to send a message to the current administration, not to mention their tearful standing ovations telling the last remaining viewers that they still stand for something and resist “oppression.” Or some such. I haven’t seen the movie, obviously, but after 25 years of covering these folks, I think I know what drives their voting pretty well.
Either way, we’ll have to wait and see how it all shakes down. I am on the road visiting with my daughter so this will have to be short. Enjoy your weekend.
