There are rumblings over at Hollywood-Elsewhere, discussed on the latest episode of Oscar Poker with Awardswatch’s Erik Anderson wherein both Jeff Wells and Anderson were saying Michael Fassbender was not going to get nominated. This after Fassbender topped the Gurus and Gold Derby’s latest predictions. Not at number two, but topped the chart – as in, right on top. It has so surprised me that these two are down on Fassbender that it’s inspired me to write a bit about Best Actor. Of course Michael Fassbender continues to be among the strongest contenders for Best Actor. It’s absolutely ludicrous to think otherwise, based on nothing so much as a box office surprise that has been below expectations. Join me, won’t you, for a little fireside chat about Best Actor.
Best Actor is almost always tied to Best Picture. This has been especially true since the expansion of Best Picture to more nominees.
Birdman – Michael Keaton
American Sniper – Bradley Cooper
Boyhood – Ellar Coltrane
Grand Budapest Hotel – Ralph Fiennes
Imitation Game – Benedict Cumberbatch
Selma – David Oyelowo
Theory of Everything – Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones
Whiplash – Miles Teller
For every Best Picture contender last year, there was a corresponding Best Actor contender, at the very least. Four out of five were nominated. The only other nominee from a non-Best Pic nominee was Steve Carell for Foxcatcher (a strong enough BP prospect that it was nominated for Best Director).
None of the films last year had a lead actress contender to even nominate.
The year before, it went like this:
12 Years a Slave – Chiwetel Ejiofor
American Hustle – Christian Bale, Amy Adams
Captain Phillips – Tom Hanks
Dallas Buyers Club – Matthew McConaughey
Gravity – Sandra Bullock
Her – Joaquin Phoenix
Nebraska – Bruce Dern
Philomnea – Judi Dench
The Wolf of Wall Street – Leonardo DiCaprio
There were three films with Best Actress contenders in them. All five Best Actor nominees were in Best Picture contenders.
The year before that:
Argo – Ben Affleck
Amour – Emmanuelle Riva, Jean-Louis Trintignant
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Quvenzhane Wallis
Django Unchained – Jamie Foxx
Les Miserables – Hugh Jackman
Life of Pi – Suraj Sharma
Lincoln – Daniel Day Lewis
Silver Linings Playbook – Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence
Zero Dark Thirty – Jessica Chastain
Only two Best Actor nominees did not star in Best Picture contenders – Joaquin Phoenix in The Master and Denzel Washington in Flight.
The Artist – Jean DuJardin
The Tree of Life – Brad Pitt
The Descendants – George Clooney
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close – Thomas Horn
The Help – Viola Davis
Hugo – Asa Butterfield
Midnight in Paris – Owen Wilson
Moneyball – Brad Pitt
War Horse – Jeremy Irvine
There were, once again, only two not included – Demian Bichir from A Better Life and Gary Oldman for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.
The King’s Speech – Colin Firth
127 Hours – James Franco
Black Swan – Natalie Portman
The Fighter – Mark Wahlberg
Inception – Leo DiCaprio
The Kids Are All Right – Annette Bening, Julianne Moore
The Social Network – Jesse Eisenberg
Toy Story 3
True Grit – Jeff Bridges
Winter’s Bone – Jennifer Lawrence
Only one left out, Javier Bardem for Bitutiful.
The Hurt Locker – Jeremy Renner
A Serious Man – Michael Stuhlbarg
An Education – Carey Mulligan
Avatar – Sam Worthington
Inglorious Basterds
Precious – Gabourey Sidibe
The Blind Side – Sandra Bullock
Up
Up in the Air – George Clooney
This was an odd year where three out of five of the Best Actor contenders were in non-Best Picture nominees – and that might be because of the female-driven films in the race. Colin Firth, a Single Man, Morgan Freeman in Invictus and the winner, Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart.
With more male driven Best Picture contenders, there is a better chance of matchups with Best Actor. A year like this one, however, with potentially four films getting in that are female driven, there is a pretty good chance there will be actor nominees included whose films may not factor in the Best Picture race.
A talked-about performance is a talked-about performance. Some give such memorable, astonishing performances that their place in the race is secure. To my mind, Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs is one of those performances. People who aren’t actors might not understand why Steve Jobs might do well with industry voters, especially SAG and the actor’s branch of the Academy. The film is actor- and writer-driven. All of the actors in Sorkin’s high drama are given an opportunity to showcase what actors can really do when given the chance. It is one of the few films that features actors doing what they do best. Why would the actors not choose one of the hottest tickets in the industry right now in one of the most buzzed about performances? I’m not seeing any negatives here. If I had to come up with one, I’d say someone else who might be pushing harder could take that spot if it were vulnerable. It doesn’t seem vulnerable to me.
What Fassbender does with his role in Steve Jobs is nothing short of one of the most vibrant, exciting works by any actor this year. You can say he doesn’t resemble Steve Jobs. You can say you don’t like the character. But you can’t say it isn’t one of the best performances of the year. He’s brutal. He pulls no punches and you can’t take your eye off of him. So if you’re going to say he isn’t even going to be nominated? I’m going to need a little more reason than box office.
Another actor who’s being doubted by the Gurus, and a bit by the Gold Derby pundits is Johnny Depp in Black Mass. Again, it seems to me only non-actors are the ones doubting his appeal in this role, which is easily one of his best, if not his very best. This is a good example of the internet bubble thinking it’s running the show. On the other hand no one can say any performance is for sure in, but I would not bet against Depp, even if Black Mass itself doesn’t make the BP cut. Though it would certainly help both Fassbender and Depp if their films were surefire Oscar contenders. On the other hand, with so many films about women dominating the race, and Spotlight having no lead actor performance, there probably will be maybe two or three at the most Best Pic contenders with lead actors also nominated.
If I had to guess who those two would be – as in slam dunk Best Picture nominees with corresponding lead acting performances, I’d go with:
The Martian – Matt Damon
One of the most captivating performances in what will be the biggest hit in the race – unless Star Wars sneaks in there or Inside Out makes it. Either way, Matt Damon has charmed his way into the hearts of many with his portrayal of Mark Watney: Botanist.
Second most likely based on what people have heard but still not having seen the film:
The Revenant – Leonardo DiCaprio
Not enough is known about The Revenant or Leo’s performance but there is no doubt that he is overdue for an Oscar win and from the looks of it he goes deeper and darker and harder than he ever has.
Other films coming up that could shake up the race but haven’t been widely seen enough to make that call:
Concussion – Will Smith
Creed – Michael B. Jordan
The Big Short – Steve Carell
Kurt Russell – The Hateful Eight
Add to that, other performances that could be tied to Best Picture include:
Bridge of Spies – Tom Hanks
The Danish Girl – Eddie Redmayne (which could get in with or without a Best Picture nomination)
Youth – Michael Caine
My own prediction for the category without having seen Concussion, The Big Short or The Revenant would be:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Matt Damon, The Martian
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Michael Caine for Youth or Steve Carell for The Big Short
This entire list might change after the next slew of films upcoming. I was one of the holdouts on Bradley Cooper and Christian Bale for American Hustle and to some extent again on Bradley Cooper for American Sniper, so there is the chance that I could be very wrong about this race. This is just how I see it now and Fassbender is not the one I suspect is vulnerable.
Take our poll!
[polldaddy poll=9173663]